Player Comparisons | Rowell v Berry

Published by The_Professor on

We’ve been joined by the Professor and you’d better be taking notes because there WILL be a test!

The Professor uses patented Super Computer technology to calculate highly complex Supercoach algorithms. Today he has run a couple of player comparisons through his Super(coach) Computer and the results are in!

MATT ROWELL v JARROD BERRY

The Super(coach) Computer has run a comparison between Matt Rowell ($342,900 MID) and Jarrod Berry ($268,500).

Talk about two potential “breakout” candidates this year. Safe to say that both Rowell and Berry are priced well below what their scoring potential is. Let’s check out some numbers below and see what the Super(coach) Computer has to say…

Matt Rowell ($342,900)

Boy this kid has been unlucky in his short AFL career to date. The boy wonder provided much joy in the early stages of his career, scoring mammoth (by any definition) SC scores of 171 and 141 in just his 2nd and 3rd AFL games, respectively. Based on this projection, he was tipped to average in the 125-130 SC points range for the season! Just ridiculous. Then, alas, injury struck, and Rowell has really battled on since. However, this pre-season he looks fit and (most importantly) hungry! 

Taking a closer look at the numbers, it is very clear that Rowell’s scoring is heavily dependent on his contested possession numbers. In fact, the relationship is exceptionally close (see graph below – notice the peaks and falls of the two graphs).

As a correlation – otherwise known as how close one thing is related to another – these two variables are significantly correlated. 

Spearman r0.6511
95% confidence interval0.1923 to 0.8763
P value0.0051
Significant? (alpha = 0.05)Yes

Looking at Rowell’s contested possession numbers even further, he averaged 12 CPs during the first 4 games of his career (not including the injury effected game in rnd 5, 2020) whereas from rnd 13 onward in 2021 (after returning from injury again!) Rowell averaged only 8.6 CPs. In addition, during this time, Rowell’s effective disposal averages dropped from 15.5 to 12. This is understandable given he probably didn’t have a lot of confidence back in his body by this stage.

During the AAMI series game vs. the Cats, Rowell’s stat line read:

SC pointsDisposalsTacklesMetres GainedCPsEff Dis
1212774691819

Two things to take note here. 1) Rowell hasn’t recorded 18 CPs and 469 MG’d since he debuted, and 2) these are obvious signs that he’s gained confidence back in his body!

The Super Computer has made this pretty simple, if he stays fit Rowell scores between 100-105 SC pts (±4) on average this year. This would see him jump to between $550-580k price range at the very least, and possibly higher if he can produce the sort of numbers he was back in early 2020.

Jarrod Berry ($268,500)

A similar story to Rowell, Berry has been cruelled by injury in the past. So much so, that it was breakout territory last year for Berry in 2021. Take a look at the steady rise in points from 2017 – 2020.

20172018201920202021
62pts80pts86pts93.4pts56pts

However, in 2021 Berry played only 11 games, 2 of which were finals, and really only built any continuity from rnds 19-23, which ultimately lead to a significant drop in his output. However, in 2020 between rnds 3 and 16 (before he got injured), Berry’s numbers were impressive (see below)!

Berry numbers between rnds 3 – 16 of 2020
DisposalsContested PosMarksTacklesEff DisposalsSC points
1894.54.612.8106.4

These are impact heavy numbers, meaning that Berry doesn’t need to average high possession counts to score SC points. At a high “rookie-esk” starting price of $268,500, you would the Super Computers prediction of 85-90pt average any day of the week, and Berry has shown that he is capable of averaging a lot higher than that for stretches of time. The big questions are 1) where does he play? and 2) can he score enough points over time to sufficiently rise in price for you to swap him to a premo?

In the AAMI game vs the Doggies, Berry had 11 CBA’s, behind Neale (23 CBA’s), Bailey (16 CBA’s) and McCluggage (14 CBA’s)…and 3 ahead of Lyons (8 CBA’s). Fagan has said that he’s willing to role a few other options through the middle this year, but I wonder if this will be the case when whips are cracking!?

Another thing to consider here is the nature of the injuries sustained by Berry. The majority of Berry’s injuries of late have been non-contact, overuse-type, injuries. For example, in 2021 first it was a hamstring injury, and then a long-term groin injury interrupted his campaign.

Verdict

Higher average disposal numbers, greater contested possession numbers, and a superior midfield presence suggests that Rowell edges Berry here. Rowell’s injuries have been largely contact-related in the past, his CP and tackle numbers appear to be back up, and with a good run at things year he is every chance to return to the high scoring days of his first year. 

Super Computer SC points prediction:

Matt RowellJarrod Berry
Career Ave20212022Career Ave2021 Ave2022
74.163100-10577.149.385-90

WE SPOKE TO CLAYTON OLIVER, LISTEN HERE

What do you think community, are you taking on any of The Professor’s result? Let him know on Twitter – @Dale_Harris36


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Russty_

Thanks again Prof….I’ve kept Rowell but have omitted Berry, I have someone more exciting there now….CRIPPS hahah If he plays 75% as good as he did in the pre-season game, I’ll be a happy chappy.

Tracey3tits

I’m also going with cripps russty that preseason game of his was against some good players who have a lot of pride, they were not coasting. That ginger that was wearing him at every stoppage is a very good footballer and cripps played as if the ginger was a fly. Against most other midfields he would have cracked the double ton and kicked 7 goals instead of four. Absolute lock if him, Hewett and Kennedy stay fit.