Player Comparisons | Thomas v Butters

Published by Lekdog on

We’ve been joined by the Professor and you’d better be taking notes because there WILL be a test!

The Professor uses patented Super Computer technology to calculate highly complex Supercoach algorithms. Today he has run a couple of player comparisons through his Super(coach) Computer and the results are in!

TARRYN THOMAS v ZAK BUTTERS

The Super(coach) Computer has run a comparison between Tarryn Thomas ($459,300 MID/FWD) and Zak Butters ($443,600 FWD) – both breakout contenders up forward in 2022.

Tarryn Thomas ($459,300 – MID/FWD)

Thomas’ scoring definitely took a huge leap last year, and particularly towards the back half of 2021. From the correlation numbers, it looks like his scoring is related to all of CPs, UPs, Metres Gained, CBA’s, ToG, and effective disposal numbers.

Pearson CorrelationSC_ScoreP_value
 Cont_Pos.699.000
Uncont_Pos.651.000
Metres_Gained.645.000
TOG.470.009
CBA.719.000
Eff_Disp.831.000
Dis_Efficiency.129.270

What I really like is the comparison between the first 30 games of his career and the numbers from game 31 onward (check out the graph), particularly for metres gained.

SC Ave for first 30 games – 60pts
MG Ave for first 30 games – 154m

SC Ave from games 31 onward – 90pts
MG Ave from games 31 onward – 354m

Do I sense a potential breakout?

During the AAMI series game against the Swans, Thomas’ stat line read:

SC ScoreHBKickMarkTacklesFreeMGCPsClearancesClangersDis EffToG
70811380/33556375781

Notably, 7 clangers (6 of which were direct turnovers) and a disposal efficiency of 57% with 3 free kicks against is rubbish…but maybe…just maybe….this is pre-season rust? The 355 metres gained, 6 contested possessions, 13 CBA’s and 8 tackles are all good signs according to how his SC numbers churn out.

Interestingly, the Super(coach) Computer modelling showed that NO variables (and yes, you heard that correctly) could predict SC scoring for Thomas…which may be a concern. However, this could also be interpreted that Thomas has many different avenues for scoring SC points, with no significant contribution of one particular metric…

Supercoach Computer Predictions:

PlayerCareer Ave SC pts2021 Ave SC Pts2022 Predicted (range) SC pts
Tarryn Thomas71.284.395.5 ± 6.3

WE SPOKE TO CLAYTON OLIVER, LISTEN HERE

Zak Butters ($443,600 – FWD)

All signs point to Butters having a huge year this year…if he can stay healthy!! Probably doesn’t help that he’s <80kg and playing more of a midfield-type role this year. Will be very interesting to see how he shapes up against the monsters like Cripps, Bont, Trac, Oliver and co… but the kid seems to be up for the fight and doesn’t lack in courage!! Ken may also decide to throw him forward occasionally, especially if injuries start to mount for the small fwds in Gray, Rozee etc.

The Super(coach) Computer result was very interesting. Butters relies on uncontested possessions and…drumroll…CBA’s!

In fact, the model could predict that if Butters’ uncontested possessions rose by 1 (on average) this year, there was a 92% chance that his SC scores would go up by 6.54pts (on average)! You would expect this to happen with a more midfield friendly role. Loot at just how closely his UPs matched his SC scores – particularly from game 20 onward.

SC Ave for first 20 games – 59.6pts
UPs Ave for first 20 games – 8.3

SC Ave from games 21 onward – 84.7pts
UPs Ave from games 21 onward – 9.4

Most importantly though, the Super(coach) Computer was able to predict that if Butters’ CBA’s rose by 1 (on average) this year, there is a 92% chance that his SC pts will go up by 3.84pts. This should be almost a certainty should Ken keep to his word and play Butters in the midfield. If the pre-season games are anything to go by, there are some excellent signs!

Supercoach Computer Predictions:

PlayerCareer Ave SC pts2021 Ave SC Pts2022 Predicted (range) SC pts
Zak Butters74.481.5100.2 ± 8.2

Verdict:

With a higher ceiling, greater promise of midfield minutes, and some strong indications of increased SC points scoring from CBA’s and UPs, the final verdict has to be for Butters here! Though, I suspect an improvement in SC scoring from Thomas too this year.

What do you think community, are you taking on any of The Professor’s result? Let him know on Twitter – @Dale_Harris36


Subscribe
Notify of
guest
9 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Rick Grimes

Who’s the boy that can laugh at a storm cloud?
Turn a frown into a smile for free?
Who’s the kid with a heart full of magic?
Everyone knows it’s Butters!
 “That’s me!”

TRIGGA HAPPY

My boy Butters that’s for sure.
Reminder:
Alrighty every year I run a league based on starting a specific player
Last year it was Christian Pstracca (turned out ok won Normie in the Granny). This year’s player of choice is:
Zac Butters
League code: 350337
League name: Show us ya BUTTERS
Only one rule.
Must have Zac Butters in team. 

Russty_

And not be a quitter! 🙂

Rick Grimes

What happens if he gets injured for the season?

Russty_

Hey Rick, I’d say probably just carry on as usual without him…then maybe get him back in if he recovers?, maybe Trig could clarify?

TRIGGA HAPPY

Yeah if he gets an LTI all bets are off! 🤣

Hope not. Would love to see what he can produce in the midfield for the entire season.

Russty_

Thanks Professor and Lekkydawg, I’d love to see a direct comparison between Thomas and Bailey who is exactly the same price, I currently have Butters and Bailey but I was keen on Thomas also until his mediocre score in the pre-season game.

demonsdelight

That;s a tough call but Butters has a lot of upside

Tracey3Tits

I have Butters but I have a horrible feeling that he is gonna be more like Kenny in south park than he is gonna be like walsh in supercoach