600k Midfielders – Part Two

Published by Marto on

Nailing your 2022 Supercoach $600K+ MID selections – Part two

Hi there magnificent JR Community. It’s great to be back for a look at the next batch of snarling filthy stinking Supercoach Midfield Beasts. 

Head over here to catch up if you missed part one. Part one picks the eyes out of Jack Macrae, Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Clayton Oliver, Marcus Bontempelli and Jarryd Lyons. 

Let’s rip straight into, starting with an option I’m pretty keen on;

TOM MITCHELL  |  $638,100 |  2021 AVG 117

* all averages include finals

Tom’s scoring distribution profile stacks up pretty well. 

He earns more than anyone in Supercoach points from handballing which is no surprise. What surprised me was that those handball points only equated to 20% of his scoring output.

Key to Tom Mitchell is the fact that he wins his own ball – this is common to most of these $600K Mid options. Making sure your premium midfielders are elite at winning their own ball is super important when you’re looking to select a midfielder with confidence when it comes to Supercoach. 

As long as Mitchell is playing, upright and vertical without carrying an injury this year – he’ll score well. 

But at this price I want him to score bloody well, he’s priced to average 119. Will he match that? Will he be a viable VC or C option?

I believe Mitchell is underpriced and I reckon he’s real value in 2022. 

He busted a leg a few preseasons ago. Then he missed most of preseason 2021 after a shoulder reco. This to me explains his poor pre-bye average of 106 last season. 

Once back into the swing of things and fully fit – in the 11 games after the bye he averaged 129 with a lowest score of 110. 

With a full preseason in 2022 I think this is more of what we might expect from this gun. 

SAM WALSH  |  $637,100 |  2021 AVG 117

Freak. Dead. Set. Freak.

The last player hitting this kind of 6 game rolling average this early in his career was Marcus Bontempelli and he is pretty good at the footy. 

He ticks the right boxes for almost everything. Gets. Contested possession. Efficiency. Age. Captainability. Sensible haircut. 

Walsh is an absolute jet who will feature in our Supercoach teams at stages for many years. Having said that I will definitely not be starting him in my team. 

How will the injection of Adam Cerra and George Hewitt impact on his role? What’s old Crippa up to next year? Will Voss try anything funky? Will he handle the close attention he’s likely to cop? Will he go the long sleeves and – Lekdog – if so – how will he adjust?

He first copped a genuine hard tag in round 14 last year when de Boer went to him. He managed only 71 Supercoach points. Simpkin ran with him in round 19, Walsh scored 81. Three of his last 5 games were 87 or less in 2021. 

Sorry Lek, hope I’m wrong but the waters are telling me we might see a bit of a slump with Walsh in 2022. 

RORY LAIRD |  $632,600 |  2021 AVG 116

I love this bloke. Upon reflection, Adelaide may regret not having inserted him into the midfield a touch earlier in his career. 

It’s interesting to see how closely Laird’s Scupercoach scoring profile of 2021 matches Clayton Oliver’s profile. 

As is the case with Oliver, Laird’s Supercoach score earned from hard and loose ball gets is astronomical. This is absolute Supercoach elite stuff my friends.

The biggest knock on Laird in terms of his Supercoach 2022 relevance has been the doubt surrounding his role when Matt Crouch returns, as is expected early this year. Harry Schoenberg is also emerging and there are concerns that these changes may knock Laird’s output down a touch. 

Nahhh

I’m with Barron Von Crow on this one. (check the comments in his Adelaide 2022 Pocket profile here). I simply do not think Adelaide in their right mind can afford not to deploy such a damaging contested weapon in 2022.

To paint the picture a little bit on that opinion..

Laird attended 82% of center bounces in 2021. That’s the exact same CBA % he had in the last 4 games in the midfield in 2020, where he shared CBA duties with Matt Crouch, Brad Crouch, Rory Sloane and Schoenberg.

He’ll share CBA duties with an arguably weaker midfield group in 2022. Matt Crouch will be underdone. Rory Sloane (God bless him) is almost cooked. Schoenberg and Keays are emerging but have their deficiencies. Himmelberg is yet to make the grade in any serious way.. 

In comparison to Crouch.. Laird won a hard or loose ball 113 times in his last 10 games last year. In Crouch’s last 10 games before his break he won just 65. 

Adelaide would be mad to remove his freakish ball winning ability from centre bounces and stoppages, and I don’t think they will. 

He averaged 125SC in his last 10 games last year, with no scores below 100. 

I’ll find it hard to fit him in, but I honestly think Laird could end up being a brilliant option, with a relatively low ownership %age when compared to some of these other big boys.

DARCY PARISH |  $621,300 |  2021 AVG 117

Darcy Parish loved his move into the guts at Essendon. It’s been awesome to see him take the opportunity to stake his claim as one of the guns of the comp. 

His (very few) Supercoach owners really really really loved his run between rounds 6 and 16 where he averaged a trouser stretching and/or moistening 140 Supercoach points.

Then homework was done by the opposition. 

He copped his first decent tag in round 17 and started to soil his Supercoach pant a bit from that point on. He averaged just 105 Supercoach points in his remaining games. He did not hit the Supercoach ton in 4 of his last 8 games. 

Looking at his scoring distribution and profile – his ball winning ability and really high contested possession numbers bode well for him moving forward. 

On the down side, his tackle numbers are relatively low. Jack Steel for example scored 20 more Supercoach points per game than Parish in tackle points in 2021. 

That really limits Parish’s scoring ability if he’s tagged, he’s unable to score as well as others at this price point in defensive stats like the tackle. That may change but for now it’s a worry. 

Dylan Shiel will be back in the middle this year. Stringer. Merrett. McGrath. Caldwell. Hobbs. A lot of boys will rotate through that midfield as well in 2022.

A clear no for me as a starter in 2022.

ZACH MERRETT  |  $625,700 |  2021 AVG 115

The Supercoach scoring distribution numbers above tell you all you need to know when it comes to Zach Merrett.

Run someone with him and he can’t score.

Of all the $600K+ options he is the only player that earned less than 30 Supercoach points per game actually getting / winning his own ball. 

Of all the $600K+ options his contested possession rate is 5% lower than anyone else’s. It’s 26% lower than Clayton Oliver’s. That’s a lot. 

If you want to stop him just sit someone on him. Stop him getting handball receives. Even just sit someone in the remote vicinity of where he is and that’ll do. Like within 10 meters of him. Just yell at him from that distance even. He’ll be no good. 

But he won’t get tagged all of the time. 

Parish got most attention towards the end of 2021 which gave Merrett a bit of the footy. 

But he also will get tagged some of the time. He is a seriously damaging player by foot and can’t be let loose too often.

I reckon Patch said it beautifully in his Essendon Pocket Profile here;

“I won’t be touching that red and black midfield until I see empirical evidence the player I want is guaranteed game time, and this early into the preseason not one of them is guaranteed diddly squat.”

What Patch said.  

CAM GUTHRIE  |  $616,700 |  2021 AVG 110

Cam has been a gun since his move from the wing into the middle in 2020. 

He’s 30 now, a spring chicken in Geelong terms – but getting on now in the real world. At the 205 game mark he’s at that point where we often see things start to fall away in Supercoach scoring terms. 

And there are a lot of red warning lights in his profile. 

Only a 30% 120+ score rate in 2021 made him a relatively poor captaincy option in comparison to similarly priced players. He didn’t hit the ton in 1 out of every 3 games he played. He missed games with injury. 

He relied on receiving it a bit more than the other options, so he’s not too hard to stop. 

Geelong also went young midfielder shopping at the draft, bringing 4 into the club. Unless they plan to fall off a cliff very soon they’ll really need to get these boys playing senior footy soon. 

A clear no for me as a starter, or throughout the season unless he bottoms wayyyy out at some stage. 

OLLIE WINES  |  $612,100 |  2021 AVG 113

Look at that profile. As delicious as those glistening thighs. 

2021 was significant for Ollie in that it was the first season for several years that he was able to get a full preseason under his belt. That is absolutely essential when you’re shopping for premium MIDS at this time of year.

He took a bit of time to hit his straps in 2021 but when he hit them he hit them hard. He averaged 122 after round 8, falling below the Supercoach 100 just once. In almost half of those games he scored 120+. This is captaincy material.

This scoring distribution profile is great. 3rd behind only Oliver and Laird in points through ball winning. 46% contested which is huge. Does chop it up a touch more than some of the others – but only marginally. 

The Bull is Back. 

He’s priced pretty well. He’s having a good preseason.. not a bad option at all. 

CALLUM MILLS  |  $612,100 |  2021 AVG 113

Mills was awesome though most of 2021. Injuries aside, he’s smashed it since his long awaited move into the midfield. 

When it comes to Supercoach and spending this kind of coin though, injury history should never be set aside.

The obvious red mark on his profile is his recent injury history. He missed games in critical Supercoach periods in both 2020 and 2021, with calf, achilles, and most recently shoulder trouble. Word is he’s been in full training but this has been an interrupted preseason for Mills. Alarm bells. 

Even if he does get a good run at it early this year, his profile suggests that he’s a definite candidate for close attention from the opposition. He kicks it a lot and kicks it accurately. They get it into his hands and he receives more uncontested footy off his teammates than other options at this price point. He wins less of his own footy than others at the pointy end. All signs he’d be relatively easy to stop and a great target for opposition heat.

No DPP this season also. A really firm Supercoach no but I do look forward to seeing him play this year – a quality footballer. 

CHRISTIAN PETRACCA  |  $606,200 |  2021 AVG 115

My first thought on Petracca before having a closer look was a no. After having a look under the hood I’m less no-ey on him.

For starters he’s pretty well priced. He’s priced to average 113. He averaged 115 for the season last year, but 124 in the 12 games he played after the bye, and a big arse 138 in finals. 

His contested possession rate is huge and his points from winning the ball are as well. Great signs. 

On the downside his tackle numbers aren’t as high as you see in most of the other reliable week in week out Supercoach midfield beasts. He averaged just 4 tackles per game, and only 2.5 per game in the finals series. He chops it up a bit as well. His points lost to the clanger are right up there. 

My biggest concern with him though is the freaking perfect footy he and Melbourne played towards the back part of last year. At the risk of sounding a bit illogical.. It was too good. I don’t think they’ll replicate that level of dominance in 2022. 

A player like Clayton Oliver will hit the scoreboard regardless of whether he’s winning, losing, playing for Melbourne, St Kilda, Carrum.. Team premiership hangover or not. 

Petracca I feel is a different kettle of fish.

I feel he’ll be very very Supercoach good at times this year.. but also Supercoach bad enough at times in 2022 to look at other options, at least for starters.  

I hope you’ve enjoyed my look at the $600K+ MIDS for 2022 JR Community, I hope you’re enjoying your preseason with the awesome JR crew as much as I am!

If you’re on Twitter hit me up at @MartoBonbeach with your thoughts, or otherwise I’ll see you in the comments below.


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Keenbutclueless

First time I have questioned Walsh’s spot in my team was reading this. My top 5 mids haven’t changed since it opened. Now I don’t know whether to wait to see if he can handle a tag (and his demeanour suggests he will adjust) or assume he will.
Berry to Daicos, Walsh to Macrae is looking tempting.
decisions decisions

Russty_

Sounds like a good decision Keen, Macrae is a must have and rarely drops in price, and Daicos could do as well as or better than Berry, your side will look better for having Jmac in there.

The Ranger

Very valid point re Cerra and Hewitt potentially taking points off Walsh.
It’s likely I’ll be flipping a coin between Titch and Walsh three mins before the first bounce.

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

The only player that I am starting with out of this lot is Titch. My current top 5 are Steele, Oliver, Bont, Titch, Neale. I had taken Titch out at one stage, but I think I need 4 of the best for M1-M4. Neale is good value at M5, but I felt M4 was a bit high, which is why Titch found his way back into my side. I need to just lock these 5 in and not even look at them again until round one or if they get injured.

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

Hi Marto, I really liked your part one, with you talking about Steele, Oliver and Bont and now Titch in part two. I know that Bont isn’t in the top level, but I like to start with him ever since a few years back when I was a few dollars off getting him mid season and he really kicked on after that and I missed out.The other four pick themselves, I’ve started with Oliver since 2017 and he’s been my first picked since 2018. Titch has started in my side except for 2019 since I have been playing and this will be the second year for Steele and my first time starting Neale.

Derek

I couldn’t decide between Macrae, Titch, Steele or Oliver. All on the top level. So I just went them all.

neale is too much value to miss

i have Miller, Bont, Tracca, Wines, Merrett, Mills & Walsh all in the second level, I can see the next 4 coming from that group (no love for Lyon or Laird)

at the moment my bias has Mills in my team

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

I think those five will be a very popular top 5 for starting with Derek. I never have Macrae in my team, so have to look at the second level players for my 4th-5th player and Bont comes very close to the top level ones, plus he’s one of my favorite non Melbourne players. Steele and Oliver were locked from the start, Titch was in, then out and now back in and Neale was to much value to pass up.

Last edited 3 months ago by JohnDJ59
Derek

Not a Bont fan mate. I almost have him in the 3rd level with Guthrie, Brayshaw, Laird, Lyons, Kelly.

I’ve seen numbers that show he loses out when Dunkley and Trelor both play, just too many mouths to feed at dogs

Last edited 3 months ago by Derek
JohnDJ59.Black Flag

I had a look at how Bont went after round six last season when Dunkley wasn’t playing and he went a lot better, though he was still averaging around 115 before then. I guess I could replace Bont with Dunkley, then move Dunkley into the fwd line later on.

Derek

It’s a good point about players who get their own footy.

’contested possession’ are a good statistic but they are made up of ‘hard ball gets’ and ‘soft ball gets’ I believe champion data usually award 4 pts for a hard ball get and 1 PT for a soft get.

difference is a hard get is when it was a genuine 50/50 ball, where a soft get is when there was an opponent within 1 metre

its like a contest mark gets 5 pts and an uncontested usually 1 pt

does anyone know where I can get stats on the hard ball gets?

i can find ‘contested’ possessions, but not the breakdown

Russty_

Hey Derek it’s on the SC page in the help section (point scoring)
Hardball get4.5 Points Loose-ball get4.5 Points
There’s no soft ball get

Derek

Russty, thanks mate, I was only guessing with the 1 PT for soft-ball gets, it might be 0 pts.

that is why ‘contested’ isn’t a great stat for SC because it includes soft-ball gets that can score 0

there was a book I bought one year that had a heap of stats in it from champion data. Can’t remember where I got it from

Derek

Martin, thanks mate, great work.

the 4.5pts for the hard ball and loose ball gets make sense because it is a 50/50 contest.

the soft ball get can include a handball receive, but it will be counted as a ‘contested possession’ by the TV if there was an opponent within 1 metre.

I will keep looking

Derek

You’re trying to talk me out of Mills

Russty_

Nice write ups Marto, both of them, much appreciated mate 🙂
P.S no one pick Mills, so Derek can have him all to himself lol

Last edited 3 months ago by Russty_
PhantasyFantom

Mitchell, Walsh and Merrett.
You were VERY selective in your comments on Walsh. 3 of his last 5 were 87 or less BUT he ave 117 in his final 6 and increased his ave by 6 after the bye to average 120 post bye. A guy increasing his to 120 after teams started to tag him doesn’t say ‘Don’t start him’ to me it says lock the kid in coz he will not get any cheaper in his 4th year of AFL
Cerra and Hewitt will increase Walsh’s output. Cerra will get ball to him on the outside and Hewitt will pick off the taggers so that he can run with it. Apparently clubs recruit players to play roles these days, go figure.