Supercoach 2022 Ruck Analysis – Oscar McInerney
Hi community. My name is Marto from Bonbeach, and I’m crap at Supercoach. It’s been 11 years since my last top 1000 finish.
God that feels good. I had to get that off my chest.
You see, something has dawned on me. I’ve only just realised why things have gone off the rails. I’ve had a look through my teams of yesteryear, and I’ve had an incredible epiphany.
I just pick really shit Supercoach options. That’s about it.
That ends TODAY my fellow JR community members.
From this day forth I shall not allow another player to take his place in my Supercoach team without having analysed the absolute crap out of him.
Thanks very much for having me community I’m really looking forward to chewing the SC fat with you all in season 2022!
My journey of over analysis begins today with my look at Oscar McInerney.
In a season where we have scoring ruck beasts like Grundy, Gawn, Darcy and Nic Nat to choose from the numbers below don’t exactly jump off the page do they?
|Sub 80 Scores||7|
Hang about though. What that summary doesn’t tell you is that big Oscar grew a gigantic set of ruck aggots in the last part 2021.
After averaging just 78 up until Brisbane’s round 13 bye McInerney went on to average 113 Supercoach points in his last 10 games.
As you can see below, his 6 week Supercoach average had steadily improved up until that point, but this was different. This was a quantum leap.
So what had changed?
A closer look at his Supercoach scoring spread reveals that the number of hitouts to advantage that McInerney was winning had skyrocketed.
With rucks scoring 5 Supercoach points for every hitout to advantage (HTA) this improvement in his ruck craft is really Supercoach relevant.
Oscar had averaged just 37 Supercoach HTA points up until the bye. He came home earning an average of 60 HTA points per game in his last 10.
But who did he come up against in the ruck? Did he have a soft run against rucking spuds?
He faced Sean Darcy, Brodie Grundy, Nic Nat and Gawn in consecutive games from round 21 onwards, averaging 119 Supercoach points.
So how does his price of $509,300 stack up?
If you believe he can continue doing end-of-2021 things in 2022 you’re looking at some real value here.
He’s priced to average his 2021 season average of 95. If he was priced based on his last 10 games you’d be paying about $606,000 for him.
It’s interesting to see how he stacks up as an option against our favourite set and forget rucking Supercoach beast Max Gawn.
You could read the above chart and believe that he’s made the leap from average ruckman to premium ruck.. but has he?
Was his last 10 games a flash in the pan?
When you track Oscar’s progression against established premium rucks you’ll see his emergence at this stage of his career, while sudden – isn’t unusual.
This chart below tracks Gawn, Grundy and Goldstein’s cumulative average Supercoach scoring progress against McInerny’s in their first 79 games.
It also tracks their progress in the 25 games after their 79th. They all improved during this period which bodes well for Oscar in 2022.
He was picked up as a mature-ager as well. At 27 he’s in ruck prime time.. also a good thing.
So what’s the catch?
There might be a catch..
No other ruckman in the AFL attended more ruck contests than McInerney in the last 10 games of 2021.
This gave him more opportunity than any other ruckman to earn those HTA points, and also the other points available to him being around stoppages.
The departure of Stefan Martin at the end of 2020 together with the absence and then retirement of Archie Smith left Brisbane without much depth in the ruck department for most of 2021.
While other ruckmen in the competition combined with a reasonable backup ruckman Big Oscar lumbered away all season as the primary ruckman with only minimal backup from Tom Fullarton who Brisbane used mainly up forward.
Will that change in 2022?
This is the BIG question I reckon.
We’re less likely to see Oscar’s end of season 2021 output continue if Brisbane change structure and play a second legitimate ruckman.
A drop in the number of ruck contests he attends is very likely to see a drop in his SC output, especially in HTA points.
Could that happen? Could Brisbane play a second ruck?
It’s Brisbane’s recruitment of Darcy Fort during the trade period that is the biggest risk to Oscar’s 2022 Supercoach Season.
Reports suggest that he’ll slot straight into the list to become their 2nd best ruck option behind McInerney, possibly doing Tom Fullarton out of a game depending on how Brisbane structure up.
Forts on Fort?
Fort managed only 8 games in 3 seasons at Geelong, struggling in the pecking order behind a lot of big Cats.
If he runs out for Brisbane in round 1 it will have been 611 days since his last AFL game. He’s a long toothed and robust of pant 28 years of age.
He won Geelong’s Reserves B&F last year averaging 19 possessions and 20 hitouts.
He also stacked up OK in his 5 games at AFL level in 2020;
I’ll pass at this stage, unless it becomes clear that Darcy Fort isn’t up to playing alongside McInerney as a ruck partnership in the Lions best 22.
If it looks as if Oscar gets to keep doing his thing solo, I reckon he’ll go close to becoming my R2.
Looking forward to kicking this one around community.
Does anyone have any insights into Darcy Fort, or Brisbane’s plans in the ruck in 2022?
What are your thoughts on the Big O in Supercoach 2022?