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Bont On Top

Published by Lekdog on

Lekdog is joined by Dyl to talk trade tactics for the rest of the year, Marcus Bontempelli’s form, Patrick Dangerfield’s opportunity moving forward, Jai ‘Duke’ Newcombe and more.

Grab some Jock Reynolds winter merch here!

Time Codes:

02:55 – Bont is officially top scorer for the year

05:24 – Injuries

05:31 – Lachlan Jones

06:22 – Mitch Duncan

07:15 – Nat Fyfe

07:21 – Josh Kelly

07:28 – Robbie Gray

07:45 – Darcy Moore

08:00 – Shane Mumford returning?

09:31 – Adams & Grundy returning?

10:31 – Rookies

10:40 – Kieren Briggs ($123,900 | B/E -39 | FWD/DEF | GWS) – Proj $42.2k

11:03 – Luke Edwards ($117,300 | B/E -91) WCE MID – Proj $75.9k

12:23 – Luke Foley ($161,000 | B/E -56 | DEF | WCE) – Proj $45.5k

14:25 – Jai Newcombe ($102,400 | B/E -40 | MID | HAW) – Proj $39.7k

15:54 – Max Lynch ($123,900 | BE -37 | RUC/FWD | COL) – Proj $36k

16:30 – 9 rounds left, how do we approach trades?

18:15- Limited trades but rookies on field, what do we do?

20:00 – What do we do with limited trades and underperforming players?

21:00 – Jayden Short ($475,000 | B/E 86)

21:10 – Joe Daniher ($388,000 | B/E 80)

21:44 – Patrick Cripps ($473,800 | B/E 123)

23:44 – Jack Bowes  ($404,800 | B/E 99)

25:00 – Bargain Targets

25:06 – Ben McEvoy ($481,200 | B/E 47 | DEF/RUC | HAW) 3 round average of 116

26:55 – Brayden Maynard ($482,000 | B/E 37 | DEF | COL) averaging 105 over last 5

28:00 – Jordan Ridley ($456,100 | B/E 73 | DEF | ESS) 

29:05 – Lachie Whitfield ($516,700 | B/E 99 | DEF | GWS)

31:22 – Lachie Neale ($576,300 | B/E 94 | MID | BRI) coming off 156 points

34:15 – Scott Pendlebury ($424,700 | B/E -29 | MID | COL) highly traded in so far

37:24 – Jy Simpkin ($524,900 | B/E 40 | MID | NTH) 5 round average 118

37:40 – Brad Crouch ($529,900 | B/E 42 | MID | STK) 5 round average 112

39:25 – Toby Greene ($471,100 | B/E 45 | FWD | GWS) averaging 97 for the year

40:19 – Patrick Dangerfield ($515,400 | B/E 138 | MID/FWD | GEE) 95 on the weekend

21:30 – Jake Stringer ($375,600 | B/E -6 | FWD | ESS) 180 on weekend

42:44 – Shai Bolton ($524,400 | B/E 89 | FWD /MID | RIC) Last 5 avg 109

42:55 – Dustin Martin ($472,300 | B/E 62 | FWD/MID | RIC) 3-5 round averages both 102

43:59 – Nick Hind ($485,000 | B/E 70 | FWD | ESS)  

44:03 – Steele Sidebottom ($485,300 | B/E 90 | FWD/MID | COL)

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Lazza

Newcombe will play this week .. quote from Clarkson 👍

Hugh

He said that before Round 1about Connor Downie (Medical Sub)… Downie has yet to actually play at all.

Lazza

🤔

Lazza

Can’t decide between Lyons and Neale.. maybe I’ll just wait for Shuey.. 🤔

Hugh

Shuey will play this week

Lazza

Hmmm, apparently he had a strong comeback game in the WAFL with 22 disposals and five clearances in limited game time… he is priced at only 78 points.. just need to convince myself his twingey hammies will stay strung…

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

No trades for me this week, would like either Greene or Danger, but my fwd rookies still have cash to make.

Lazza

I’m waiting on Danger too… he should drop a little more this week and FWD rookies should earn a little more. Plus, I have Thilthorpe and CCJ for the Grundy trade in a couple of weeks time. At this stage I only have 2 players (Reeves & Frederick) who aren’t playing… Will be bringing in my $102k loopholes for MID and FWD over the next 2 weeks to generate cash for Danger and a fallen MID premo. Would like Lyons, but he might be too expensive if I want to get all rookies off the field..

Hugh

There’s a $102k mid/fwd Rookie called Saunders who is close to selection at Hawthorn.

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

I’m going to see how Danger goes this week, if he score’s 100+, I’ll look at getting him in round 16. L.Jones and Reeves are my non playing rookies. Going Flynn to Reeves in R13 would have to be my biggest trade blunder this season, missing out on Flynn’s 117 & 98 scores, as well his 37k price rise.

Russty_

My last 2 trades were Newcombe last week and Gray the week after lol

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

I brought Newcombe in at the last minute, last round, thinking he might get me over the line in a few games, what a waste of a trade, very annoyed with myself, since I don’t usually go early on rookies.Traded out Byrnes who was good cover on the mid bench. Still not sure what made me do it, a moment of madness maybe, that’s what this season has done to me. I’ll get a forced break from it now anyway, just have to pick the VC/C each week and that will be it for me.

Streaker

Jordan M8 and Flynn R2 my only onfield rookies with 13 trades left, 3rd in my cash league and overall rank 7,800 which I would expect to tumble as others run out of trades.
This year’s motto was to buy cheap fallen premo’s. Zorko, May, Ridley, Cunnington all sub 500k. Flynn and Coleman Jones will turn to Grundy shortly after they make some more cash. Unfortunately still chasing the Bont.
Life is good.

Hugh

Pendlebury is $420k

Kat

Don’t think I will be trading this week. 2 forward spots to fill, but rookies aren’t ready to trade yet and don’t have lots of trades left, so I will be sitting tight and hoping Danger drops a little over the next week or 2 to add to my team. Not sure if I will be able to get a F6 unless I avoid injuries so Poulter may have to do this job for me. Mostly happy with the rest of my team although Taranto and Brayshaw (Frem) are my M7/8 but it could be worse. I fInd this is the least fun time of the year for SC when most of the trading is done or there arent many trades left to use.

derek

i’m going to have to go early on Dangerfield. Got RGray last week and he lasted less than a half.

My trades are thin and will only have Grundy to get back in a week or two (couple of rookies to fatten) but will be running with Cripps (M8) and Daniher (F6) for as long as i can.

Teague Train

You wont be the only side running thin towards this end of the season.

Ive got Saad D6, Flynn R2 and Weightman, CCJ and Poulter filling out F5 and F6

Im hoping i can trade one of them straight to Danger and leaving 1 of the other 2 filling out F6, but im leaning to keeping those 3 and trying to upgrade Flynn to someone else as soon as hes dropped

My Saad POD hasnt worked, but ive always had more pressing issues to deal with

Keenbutclueless

It’s an awkward time. Striking the balance between saving trades and improving your team is difficult. If you have trades in hand, then really the best chance of improving ranking is for injuries to hit, so that the teams that have run out of trades get hit worse than you. It feels like someone else’s bad luck is your reward for holding trades. It’s the one area I like AFL Fantasy better. You feel like you can still improve your team each week. I think last years over supply of trades has had an impact this year. Both in teams using too many early trades, and the feeling of inactivity now when you are sitting on your team.

Kat

You’re right Keen. It was good having those extra trades last year where you could make a few different trade moves that you normally wouldn’t and keep trading for most of the season

Russty_

Just the one for me this week Kat, not that it really matters, Gray (really good choice that) to Greene, who I should’ve chosen instead of Gray lol…it’s been one of those years.
I get it about the least fav time of the season, I won’t be making any top 8’s in any Leagues and ranking for shite so, not much left to play for really. If I win any league games from here, all I’ll be doing is ruining someone else’s chances of doing well. If there was a disappear button I could press, I’d press it.
On a brighter note, I am enjoying the trade leagues I’m in this year 🙂

derek

JR SURVIVOR GROUPS

The merger has happened!

The division stage has finished and boy oh boy did it get tough near the end.

The following 36 teams have progressed to the Champion of Champions Group:

Greatfacthunt
Pecks’ Wunderteam
Obi-Wan Kenobi2.0
The Try Agains
TiddlyWinks FC
Donut forsake me
Flight
Chartomben
DrownEmlnYaHoney
The Instagator
eggsmas
Slam Dunkley
FisherPriceisRight
Holt
Yeah yeah Righto
Peaches
RawTigers
Loose Men FC
Jagerbomb
The Red Snappers
Jolly Jels
Hall of Fame
Loverly Long Leg
Headless Zombie
Greendale
BOMBERBLITZ
Chungus Schmelling
CHAMPS
Deans Stars
Swagpies
Teal Point Thunder
Taranto Raptors
Saints2021
TEAM JP
BriansBunch
Pretty Average
The Certs

The Code to join is Group# 468645

This week there will ne NO ELIMINATIONS

However, Immunity will be awarded to the highest score for round 15.

Eliminations will start from ROUND 16.

Depending on how many teams get the memo and join the Champions Group, will depend on how many eliminations each week we have. The plan is to have the final 4 for round 23.

Well done to them who have made it this far, especially a couple of teams who are ranked on the wrong side of 20k and have managed to survive this long.

thanks fellas.

Lazza

Cheers Derek. 👏👏👏

JugHead

Great job Derek 🙂

Corey

Cheers Derek, loving JR Survivor! my second crack at this and I’ve made the merge this year! Anything is possible now for Slam Dunkley!

Derek

Great work. And love the team name

Russty_

Well done to all these elite teams, especially my boys…Holty, Lazza, and Col the Instagator, good luck for the rest of it lads.

Lazza

Cheers Russty..

gator59

Cheers russty

demonsdelight

cheers Russty

Russty_

Cheers Neil 😉

Hugh

Lucky 18th The Certs just joined. Yay! Thanks 🙂

Derek

I’ll be cheering you on mate. It will be true under-dog story if you win it

jel

Thanks Derek, Jolly Jels are in.

Nifty

Thanks Derek.. CHAMPS in, don’t know how long for though..

holty01

Thanks once again Derek

Great fact hunt

Thanks heaps derek

Greendale

Love it Derek. Team’s shaping up nicely and I’m hoping to make a good crack at it.

dontblushbaby

Why can’t I see any comments ? Happens every week on desktop ?

Russty_

You gotta make sure you’re logged in, you gotta keep hitting the home button and the refresh button, you gotta keep hitting the “newest comment” button cause this format kinda sucks it.

Lazza

Also help to clear your internet caching.. it creates a short cut to what you last viewed, rather than the newest data loaded.

What Bear

Hi Community,

I would love some team advice. 8 trades $20K in the bank

Laird, Steward, Whitfield, Cumming, May, Ridley (Highman, Jones)
Oliver, Macrae, Lyons, JKelly, Zerrett, Walsh, Taranto, Brayshaw (Robertson, Bianco, Newcombe)
Grundy, Gawn (Reeves)
Hall, Ziebell, Martin, Impey, Heeney, CCJ (Danaher, Madden)

Thoughts are Jones & Heeney out. Madden back. Bring in Danger or Green. also $102K DPP to allow Danaher and CCJ to swing for a few weeks.

Or do nothing and hold trades for a few more weeks,

Ideas would be greatly appreciated

Hugh

Heeney will be fine. Best 22 ok this week. Use 1 trade to bring in cheap midfield rookie (Bramble if selected) for L Jones. Next week (when Lynch may be back) trade out CCJ for Dangerfield. If they (CCJ & Danger) score as predicted, delaying the trade 1 week saves you $60k.

TRIGGA HAPPY

Whats a trade worth.
Need to move on jones but this week or next week for bramble?
This trade allows me to go poukter to danger. But this week or next week.
With danger at a high be and poulter a low be waiting a week could mean $20k more cash.
So whats a trade worth? Would mean ccj would be F6 this week if waited a week. 🤔

Lazza

Really depends on how many points Danger will average here on in… with only an average of 81 since his return, he’s actually averaging less than CCJ @ 93. So I’d wait and see how Danger goes this week.. he’d need to be scoring over 115 each week to be worth the trade I reckon…

john

The general consensus seems to be a trade is worth around 150k gain when downgrading, so your not far off the mark with that trade ($140k) Danger has a B/E of 138 I believe this week, but I did read Brice Mitchell mentioning all B/E’s are roughly +12 off their current one, I can’t remember off the top of my head the reasoning, but it means Dangers B/E is more like 150 now, so unless Danger has a big one, next week should be the right time to get him in, FWIW I’ve downgraded L.Jones to Edwards (NM ruck dpp 102k) to link CCJ at F6 this week and F7 next week with a H.Jones to Danger-hopefully next week🤞

Lazza

$140k equates to around 27 points .. so Danger needs to score/average 27 more than CCJ just to get to a net zero trade.. .

john

I see what you mean Lazza, but with Lynch down as 1-2wks away CCJ’s scoring capacity even his spot in the team will be questionable, personally I’m hoping he sees out the season as my F7 but time will tell, as for Danger I agree he needs another week or 2 before bringing him in and wouldn’t be grabbing him this week at all, Lynches return may well be the perfect time to trade CCJ to Danger.

Lazza

👍

TRIGGA HAPPY

Looking forward to listening to the pod tonight fellas. 😉

Daniel

Thoughts on these trades?

Duncan (Current M7) to Menegola (M7)
AND
Daniher (Current F7 – swinging Dusty back to the forward line) to Pendlebury (M8)

Leaves me with a few trades left to bring in another mid (Lyons/Neale) later on so I can loop Menegola + Pendlebury

Russty_

Sounds like a plan Dan

TRIGGA HAPPY

Team is predicted to score 2400 this rd. Too funny. 🤣😂
What is even funnier that would be double last weeks score. 🙉🙊

Russty_

Yeah mine is something like 2470 or so lol, it almost seems like I have a good side or something. 😉

Wtf

V my 2458 this week, could be close.

dontblushbaby

Gee, the VC & C are tricky this week , thoughts anyone ?

Russty_

Steele into Oliver for me DBB

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

Clarry into Bont.

demonsdelight

Clarry to Bont also

Lazza

Seems we’re all on the same plan .. Clarry into Bont for me too

Joe_T

Any fear of the De Boer tag for Titch, Lek?

demonsdelight

could be a problem with looping I might have to go Dusty into Bont if Reeves plays

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

I might have to go with Steele into Clarry/Bont if Reeves is picked to play, since my only other non playing rookie is L.Jones.

TommyC99

Is Jordon – Danger viable this week? Risky for sure but I reckon he’s primed for a big game after a few weeks finding his feet. If I do it it would roughly leave me 570k for my final mid spot (based on CCJ getting to 350k. Would ya take the risk or play it safe and hold a week?

Lazza

$127k equates to about 24 points.. so your unlikely to lose on the trade.. I’m guessing there will be between a $10k to $20k better price diff next week to this week .. but if Danger goes big, then you’ll be in front this week.. I’m waiting on Danger, but I’m not trading Jordon to Danger, so the payoff is different.

TommyC99

Hey Lazza, thanks for the reponse mate! I think the sensible play is to wait it out. Danger should lose a bit and Jordon should rise a bit. Whats tempting me is a night footy game is always more fun to watch when you’ve got players playing, so the idea of having danger tonight is exciting, but risk probs outweighs the reward if he spits out a sub 90 score.

I’ve seen a few things saying BE’s are off by about 12pts per player, is this true? It makes my decision a lot easier if Danger’s BE is actually 150 instead of 138.

Lazza

Not sure how it works in terms of the virtual BE.. but if you look at Danger’s price.. He’s priced at 95 to 99 (the calc moves around during the season mostly influenced by how many rookies have played to date as their value rises and impacts the $ per point), but he has an average of 82… so the BE is calculated to bring his price back to his average (which moves every week) over 3 games.
Right now, based on his average, Danger is around $80k overpriced. But I guess we are gambling his average will be over 100 for the rest of the season.

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

Having trouble deciding which two rookies out of, CCJ, Poulter & Weightman I should have on field in the fwd line.

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

With Impey out, I don’t have to make a decision anymore.

TRIGGA HAPPY

Great pod fellas though I think you were a bit harsh on hind.
I think he has been the recruit of the year.
He has a low of 75, high of 136 and an average of 95. Reckon you would take that for a fwd.
Very unlikely to give u a 60 as he is the new bombers distributor. 💣