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The Grundy Conundrum

Published by Lekdog on

Lekdog is joined by Steve from the Draft Doctors to talk Round 12 trade strategies, to analyse @Empr_X‘s perfect Supercoach side, breakdown trade targets and take a look at how impending returnees could hurt your premos output.

Follow Us on Twitter:

Lekdog – @lekdog
Steve – @steviefizz
Draft Doctors – @thedraftdoctors

Grab some Jock Reynolds winter merch here!

Time Codes:

00:58 – Draft Doctors is returning

03:18 – Steveโ€™s team breakdown

04:47 – @Empr_Xโ€™s perfect 2021 Supercoach team which would be ranked 1st overall without making a trade

05:52 – Blake Hardwick ($504,200 | B/E 131)

07:00 – Jarryd Lyons ($629,400 | B/E 166)

08:00 – Darcy Parish ($622,100 | B/E 85)

10:07 – The effect of role changes

11:57 – How to tackle your trades this week. 3 downgrades? Any merit in upgrading?  Hold trades?

14:56 – Taylor Adams ($470,700 | B/E 128) Knee 2-3 weeks

16:52 – Orazio Fantasia ($286,100 | B/E 67) Knee test

17:44 – Sam Berry ($240,000 | B/E 51) Concussion 1 week

17:44 – Riley Garcia ($123,900 | B/E 44) Concussion 1 week

18:00 – Brodie Grundy ($627,700 | B/E 162) Neck 2-3 weeks

19:09 – Max Gawn ($614,700 | B/E 124) 3 round average 120.3

19:47 – Reilly Oโ€™Brien ($454,300 | B/E 48) 147 on weekend, $116k cheaper than start of year

22:25 – Nic Naitanui ($585,200 | B/E 68) 163 on weekend, going at 1.9 points per minute

22:53 – Matt Flynn ($367,700 | B/E 75) Bye round this weekend, hold for R13 & R14?

23:45 – Callum Coleman-Jones ($161,200 | B/E -45) 112 on weekend, only one game played

24:17 – Ned Reeves ($123,900 | B/E -98) 90 on weekend, bye round this week

25:09 – Trent Bianco ($123,900 | B/E -32) MID/DEF 83 on debut, only played one game

27:07 – James Madden ($176,100 | B/E -40) DEF/FWD is he too pricey to jump on?

29:28 – Isaac Heeney ($398,000 | B/E 25) Projected to jump $28k after 128 on weekend

31:31 – Jack Steele ($576,900 | B/E 93) 154 on weekend, averaging 116, dreaded r14 bye

32:32 – Patrick Cripps ($449,600 | B/E 41) 133 on weekend

35:11 – Taylor Walker ($383,400 | B/E 32) 97 on weekend

36:44 – Darcy Moore ($454,600 |B/E 27) 5 round average of 95, 3 round of 107

37:46 – Darcy Parish ($622,100 | B/E 85) 3 round average of 140.7

38:26 – Chris Mayne ($492,700 | B/E 41) Last 5 games 84, 97, 112, 112, 142

39:25 – Bailey Dale ($502,500 | B/E 47) Only one game below 84 since round 2. 5 Round average of 108

40:15 – Shai Bolton ($512,600 | B/E 97) Low score of 99 in last 6 games

41:05 – Are these guys worth waiting for?

Lachie Neale ($578,700 | B/E 94) 2 weeks

Patrick Dangerfield ($611,900 | B/E 200) 2 weeks

Matt Rowell ($495,100 | B/E 199) 2 weeks

44:13 – Who do these returning players hurt most?

47:12 – #sleevewatch Round 12 winner

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john

Cheers lads ๐Ÿ‘ The EmprX team interests me greatly, I love the hindsight side of Fantasy footy, I remember a made up team coming out after the end of last season that would of finished 74th without making 1 trade!

derek

Supercoach is that easy. now you tell me.

john

Cheers for that Lek, I was expecting a deep defence to start with but looks like the fwd line was the way to go.

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

Five of my last six trades have been downgrades, brought in Poulter, Byrnes, Zorko, L.Jones, Madden, Weightman. Had been holding out getting any premiums that were playing in round 14, since that is my worst round for players on field. However I have decided not to worry about it now and I’ll just be getting in the players I need. There are no rookies on the bubble this week, I will be looking at Bianco and Reeves next week. This week I will be doing two upgrades, Lloyd and Steele will be coming in even though they play round 14.

holty01

Great work lads. I’m in the uncertain category with Grundy. Pinched nerve can be any length of time out. I would think 2-3 weeks is a guess. If I hear during the week he is progressing well, I think I’ll keep though.

JugHead

Agree. The pies don’t need to rush him back for a run at the premiership.

dontblushbaby

I’m holding until after the Pies have had their bye and will re access then, if it wasn’t for the byes and top 18 scores only over the next 3 weeks I believe I would have traded

derek

agree, if it was non-bye rounds i would probably trade him.

I have Sweet at R3, so he gets a run on field for a couple of weeks (if he gets named)

Have same problem with Tim Kelly. Not much news on him

dontblushbaby

AFL Injury Update has Kelly at 4-5 weeks

Russty_

Hi Derek I saw on the news tonight, Kelly to miss up to 5 weeks.

Rick Grimes

Agree, they may take an ultra cautious approach with him. Also provides another excuse to use when they get flogged. Oh well, we didn’t have Grundy, so yea…

I’m tempted to grab NicNat.

holty01

He is a temptation Rick.

Anonymous

You’d think Zorko, Guthrie and Miller will all take a 10+ points drop with the comebacks. Could be 25+ drop for Zorko but he’ll be an easy swap to danger or Neale depending on where you’re lacking.

I once saw a collingwood player fall onto a marshmallow that was floating on melted butter he got up straight away and said “fu*K that was hard I’ll probably miss 3-weeks” on another occaision recently a collingwood ‘hardman’ broke his finger and was out for 5 weeks or maybe it was 6 I can’t remember. My point is that if their toughest misses 5 or 6 weeks with a busted finger a bloke as notoriously soft as Grundy might not play again this year

Pman

Yawn.

The Lost Boys

Hi Community! Looking for advice – is it worth bringing in CCJ early for Flynn to cover Grundy, then next week bringing in Reeves and moving CCJ to the forward line?
Also I’m wanting to bring in Steele this week, and to do so will need to trade one of Warner or Jordan this week, then the other the following week to allow trades (bringing in Whitfield and Kelly then).
Jordan has better scoring potential than warner, but also a higher breakeven and is playing Brisbane to could end up having a stinker and losing cash? Which do you think to trade out this week?

Rick Grimes

I’m doing the same with the rucks. Looks good money to be made there. I see no dramas in offloading Jordan and Warner, they have done us proud. I prefer Jordan. Warner only been hitting 50-60 last few weeks. Even on a bad day Jordan should get that.

derek

Is anyone keen for a MID-SEASON DRAFT?

Starting After the byes (round 15)

8 teams, play everyone once and top 4 in finals.

3-4-1-3/4 (15 player squads)

Draft will be June 7 at 8.00pm

Draft Code 795531

gator59

Joined Derek, Should be a bit of extra fun

Mitch is back

Iโ€™m in, havenโ€™t drafted in years, but looking forward to Monday night

Russty_

I’m in cheers Derek

DEESNUTSRBIG

Sure I’m in, 5/8 teams have joined, 3 spots left.

Derek

Thanks fellas.

holty01

I’m in.

Derek

Thanks fellas. We have 8 starters.

Rusty, the king of draft will be hard to beat and If Holtyโ€™s classic form rubs off on his draft team we will all be in trouble.

draft is on Monday

Thomas

RUCK CONUNDRUM:
Currently have Gawn Flynn and Stef Martin in the ruck. Do I wait for Grundy to drop before grabbing him or do I go now on NicNat or another ruck through the byes?? Have been pondering since the Grundy injury, thoughts appreciated

Mitch is back

If you have more than 19 warm bodies this week, I would wait it out, and field Flynn next week.

dontblushbaby

Toby Nankervis out for 4-6 weeks with a an knee, CJ will share the Ruck with Mabs

Derek

I have Sweet at R3, Stef might push him out, easy trade

Derek

Especially with Fullerton at F8. Swing him forward

Eli

Guys, is it possible for you to record the podcasts significantly louder than current volume? I have my laptop turned up full, and the player turned up full and the volume is still so low, I can barely hear you. This has been happening every week but seems even worse this week. Cheers – love the casts gents!

Eli

Hey Lekdog,
Thanks for noticing mate! I’ve tried it again this evening and it’s still pretty faint at full volume across the board – perhaps the change you made will be only effective from the next podcast? Obviously, I’m not sure how the editing works at your end but I’m sorry to inform you that it doesn’t seem any louder at my end through the speakers – I did however, try plugging in my headphones, and this was definitely loud enough – so strange, as the speakers are usually really loud on this laptop for other media sources. Hope this helps you somehow ๐Ÿ™‚ Now, what to do about the Grundy-nundrum!! Let me know if yo need any further help with the sound check, Lekdog ๐Ÿ™‚

What Bear

Hi All,

I’m thinking of moving Grundy to CCJ and next week moving Flynn to Reeves. The plan is to trade Warner to Grundy after round 14- 15. Is this silly? This will provide the cash to complete the other lines with change left over for Grundy.

Need to be talked out of this stupidity. It feels like i am only using one extra trade and getting extra cover and making money.

Thanks for any words of wisdom

Bear

Paul

Not talking you out of it mate, I love it.
As long as the cash you’re gaining by downgrading is upgrading other lines for you in the meantime. If it allows you to bring in premiums elsewhere now and leaves cash to get him back in I’d go for it.

Rick Grimes

Mate, I think that’s inspired. Definitely worth considering.

Derek

3 trades and not really improved your team

DEESNUTSRBIG

Anyone with (Gawn, Grundy, Flynn) considering trading this week?
eg Flynn to CCJ or Reeves, which one?
eg r12 Grundy to CCJ, r13 Reeves in & CCJ to forward line, r14 Flynn, Reeves (Gawn bye), r15/16 trade Flynn to Grundy.

David C

Waiting 1 week to see if Reeves is named and then pulling the trigger on Flynn. If Reeves isn’t named it will be to CCJ. Otherwise will get CCJ after his bye if Reeves is named.

john

Jumping on CCJ early with Lynch and Nank out now for extended time for Flynn, gives me 22 playing this week then look at Reeves next week for Warner/Rowe if named.

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

I like what you have outlined there, but I am very low on trades, so will only be looking at Flynn to Reeves in round 13 if Reeves plays. I prefer to get the rookies on the bubble.

Derek

Not sure about Reeves JS

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

Do you think I should go with CCJ instead Derek.

Derek

I like Reeves. How can you not like a 6โ€™10โ€™ ruckman.

his 2 games were against Carlton and Suns, not known for their ruck Departaments.
most hawk fans would have been surprised when he was named, and were plesently surprised.

it was a case of wanting to try Big Boy as a forward. Ceglar will get his spot back when he is ready.

as a min, I would wait until teams announced round 13

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

Yes, wasn’t going to do the trade until round 13, no point getting in a rookie on their bye or not on the bubble.

TRIGGA HAPPY

That first bit of the pod got me. #1 team leading into byes with no trades!
Though you would need to have some serious cahones to start that team!
Even so if you started half still be well ahead of most teams.

Russty_

We’d all need a big pair of shiny Crystal Balls to call that team in advance, getting a bit closer than I got to that would’ve meant my season wouldn’t have been filled with such disaster…my injuries have been relentless and have killed my season dead.
I’ve had at least 14…haven’t been able to upgrade, downgrade or any kind of trading with any confidence because it’s been all about disaster control…oh well, hopefully there’ll be a next year ๐Ÿ™‚

Last edited 18 days ago by Russty_
TRIGGA HAPPY

Yeah u have had a horrid run mate. Ive had a few but no where near as many as u. The ol fire sale has had a stack as well but easy to bring in a replacement around the same price.

Russty_

Not sure what I did to anger the Gods mate but it must have been something significant haha, the worst thing is makes you look like a shit player in front of your peers and you drag your own Leagues down so that sucks.
Hopefully it’ll be different next season as this one is done for me.

Derek

Itโ€™s rough when you start the year bad.

looking back at my history, the years where Iโ€™ve ranked well i had a good start. Last year by round 3, inside top 1k and stayed there all year. 2019 by round 3 was 20k and finished about that. Unfortunately by round 3 this year I was 20k again and Iโ€™m still hovering around that.

Starting with Adams, Crips, Neale, Dangerfield, Young & Flynn instead of Macrae, Bont, Walsh, Zorko, CJ & Hickey can easy be 10-15k in rank. After that itโ€™s chacing points like Daniel, Ridley, Dusty, Gawn or looking at PODs like TimKelly, Taranto and Petracca and it all starts to fall apart.

Russty_

That sounds like my year in a nutshell Derek, the “premos” I had before they got injured, drastically underperformed. Then when they had to be replaced after getting injured, all you’re doing is trying not to go backwards, this prevents you from getting and offloading the right rookies at the right time and same goes for bringing premos in. It all has to go on hold just to maintain the scoring…not want we need to be doing.
It’s prevents one advancing the team whilst all teams around us are advancing.

demonsdelight

What you say is right russty and i too am in your boat up sh/t creek but I recall a post by Holty who said he didn’t pick those broken types initially Heeney Sicily etc so why pick Adams Cripps Neale and Danger Surely Zorko Macrae Oliver etc are better choices and safer Reckon I have learn’t from this year

Derek

Iโ€™ve looked at the players who have lost the most cash this year, Iโ€™ve got/have them all.

ive done ok with the rookies generating cash, but that is offset by premos losing value. Meaning Iโ€™ve picked up TKelly, May, Steele & Petracca last 4 weeks out of the bargain bit, instead of Macrea, Bont, Mills from the top shelf

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

I was trying to stay away from players with injury history or ones without a full pre-season, so didn’t start with Cripps, Neale etc, but it was limiting my selection, so I did still start with Danger and Rowell which was a mistake. The others that went down weren’t obvious players to stay away from. I started with players that tend to play most games, Laird, Stewart, Oliver, Merrett, Grundy, Dusty and I still wasn’t spared, 7 injuries in the first 8 rounds just about finished my season before it really started and now that my team is just starting to pick itself up from the canvas, the amount of trades left will be the killer blow.

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

Ziebell was one of the players I stayed away from also, thinking he would get injured before we could make any decent cash out of him.

demonsdelight

Had the same cards dealt to me John but when Danger went i got Heeney ,lasted a week then Hickey lasted a week then Neale see the pattern 8 in a row which limited getting cash generating rookies and trying impey types Same thing happened to Gator last year but Derek and myself went neck and neck in the top 1000. General soreness is in the pack with us now and he is one of the best Luck plays a huge part if i didn’t start danger i wouldn’t have to trade him to Heeney so stopping that cycle Is it luck though or should players like Danger be avoided regardless of DPP

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

As I said Neil, getting Danger was a mistake, he had an injury, was coming off no pr-season and was in the too old basket as well. The fact he was suspended before his injury, just started the ball rolling early.

demonsdelight

so true mate and didn’t he have pre season injuries?

Derek

Before Christmas I vowed to only look at premiums under 28 years old and no injury history. Yet I started Dangerfield, Cripps and Adams.

Itโ€™s ok to look at Ziebell, Impey, Daniher, Heppell etc because they were so undervalued, it was worth the risk. But premiums should be rusk free.

JohnDJ59.Black Flag

Yes he had a groin problem from the end of last season.

Derek

I hear TKelly might be out for 5-6 weeks, Iโ€™ll need to trade him.
Grundy for 2-3 weeks, thinking I will hold.

should be able to field 18 this week without either.

my plan this week was to do nothing and start upgrading players coming off their bye; starting with Whitfield next week.

should I just go TKelly to Whitfield (via Laird to miss) this week or look at TKelly to Zorko this week. Zorko has r13 bye and Iโ€™m weak for r14.

anonymous

Neale back this week could impact Zorko greatly. He’ll still be a top 6 fwd but could be 120k cheaper in 4 weeks

Derek

Good point. I havenโ€™t watched many Brisbane games this year to know where Zorko is playing.

maybe he will be effected or would it be McCkuggage or Lyons?

he will be worth it. I had the cash a few weeks ago and planned to get him but I went TKelly instead. Oh well.

is there any Lions fans can tell us how much Zorko will be effected (are there any Lions fans?)

FearTheBeard

My fellow supercoach community.

Any of the regs who show some love and can spare a minute for my sanity lol.

The wife had an op (all good nothingbad) this week so not been round and not thinking clearly as dealing with work/kids. Appreciate you!

I have been ruined this year by injuries(don’t even start me)

Anyway Grundy…. I have more than likely decided he has to go. I seem to be cursed this year with them. I am thinking Grundy out and bringing in CCJ.

This allows me to upgrade Berry to Bont and Robertson to Lloyd.

It would allow me def line finished. Mids would be left with 1 slot (Poulter on field)

Gawn with a rookie.

Forwards have 1 rookie in Weightman on field.

Would have 150k in bank so can potentially sell weightman/poulter next week or so and swing players round to fit reaves if named. Gives me enough their to get maybe Shai Bolton as my last forward or 500kish for a mid maybe go for steele?

Would leave me struggling to upgrade my ruck again and need 1 mid still or forward still.

I can drop from Bont/Lloyd to Steele/Whitfield or Moore or something and have another 100k-200+ banked but kinda feel Bont/Lloyd worth paying for?

Current squad is
Mills, Laird, Stewart, Short, Ridley, Madden, Highmore, Murphy
Oliver, Macrae, Walsh, Titch, ZMerrett, Brayshaw, Robertson, Poulter, Berry ,Lazzaro, Sharp
Grundy, Gawn, Colina
Zorko,Ziebell, Dusty, Impey, Tex, Weightman, Brockman, Macrae…

Thoughts please lads?

Greendale

If you’re playing for rank these byes are going to hurt you a lot, especially round 13. I’d be bringing in Bianco for Highmore and CCJ for Grundy, then two upgrades and a downgrade next week focusing on players who’ve already had their bye. Whitfield and Hawkins probably the best premium options, with Reeves the likely rookie.
If focusing on leagues then maybe sacrifice round 13, and target the likes of Neale, Cripps, Bont, Dale, or Parish. Personally I don’t like the Bont for your case because you won’t have enough cash generation to go full uber-premo, you’ll need to get players in at value.

Kat

Im keeping Grundy at the moment. With bye rounds only needing best 18 and Coll having a bye in one of those 2-3 weeks out I’m saving a trade and keeping him.

Lazza

I think Iโ€™m going the other way Kat .. by trading Grundy I can get 2 keepers, both who have outperformed Grundy in their last 3 games… and also help my R13 bye shortage..