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PODCAST | LOCKS, STOCKS AND SMOKING BARRELS

Published by Damo on

SuperCoach 2021 is upon us! Lekdog, Patch and Damo return to discuss their two locks, two players they’re buying stocks in, and two players (or a group of players) they are avoiding.

Follow Us:
Patch – @PatchToTheMax
Lek – @LekDogSC
Damo – @DamoSC

Categories: Supercoach

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Ethan

Any JREL news?

Lekdog

Not yet Ethan, still on holiday mode

Derek

thanks fellas.

its always this time of the year i am thinking “are the expensive players worth it?”

Neale, LLoyd & Gawn are expensive! A team with Cripps, Williams & Grundy, would let me slip Tim Kelly into M6.

And then i look at their scores from last year!

Pay the price.

demonsdelight

Cripps Williams Kelly and Grundy will maybe be top in their fields NEALE GAWN and LLOYD throw away the key. Risk vs Reward

Derek

I’m thinking Neale and Gawn had 7-9% more TOG last year because of shorter quarters.

Thinking their SC score will be lower this year as a result.

Still worth having, but won’t be as good return on investment

S C tragic

Every season we complain about the high prices top players are, but when and if we don’t pick them up we are scrambling for the rest of the season to get them. So pay up.

Russty_

True dat , and what we tend to forget is that other issues always come up…every week, which prevents or delays us from getting the guy we should’ve started with.

S C tragic

Is it just me or does anyone else think this year the draft young guys seem to be more pickable (is that a word). I’m liking the look of them.

Derek

The rookies struggled with TOG last year, should get more time this year

Russty_

Seems to be plenty of choices this year, the ones who impress in the preseason and have the more mature bodies are on my radar.

Demons Delight

highmore from the saints?

Russty_

For sure mate, looking fwd to seeing him in action this year, hopefully from round 1.

Derek

i have been looking at players increase/decrease in TOG% for 2020 and seeing what effect it had on their SC scoring.

I’m thinking that many players who had increased their TOG% in 2020 will see their minutes fall back to 2019 levels and with it a fall in their SC scoring.

I have analysed about 75 SC relevant players, looking at what their TOG% increase/decrease was and the effect it had on the SC score:

Top 10 TOG% increases (plus their change in SC Score):

NicNat +23.21% (+26.14%)
Wingard +13.65% (+10.53%)
DeGoey +11.95% (-4.88%)
J Cripps +10.63% (+11.24%)
Coniglio +9.77% (-2.97%)
Gaff +9.58% (-0.93%)
Gawn +7.82% (+9.38%)
Short +7.59% (+50.77%)
Ryan +6.99% (+11.46%)
D Martin +6.97% (+2.94%)

Other Relevant Players:

Merrett +6.53% (+10.48)
Adams +6.32% (+14.58%)
JKelly +5.41% (+0.88%)
Goldstein +5.01% (-0.88%)
O’Brien +4.98% (+11.58%)
Neale +3.91% (+12.61%)
Mills +3.76% (+23.71%)

I have only looked at 2020 as a comparison to 2019, i will try and look at 2018 & 2017 to identify if 2019 was an outlier year, however on first look, there does seem to be a correlation to increased TOG% and an increase in SC Scoring.

What effect will this have on players in 2021?

At this stage, i might not be starting with any of the above players, including Gawn, Neale, JKelly who i originally had in my team.

Derek

At the other end of the list, the following are players who had a fall in their TOG% (plus their SC Score change)

Top 10:
Shuey -12.25% (-7.92%)
Lynch -7.03% (-10.59%)
Laird -6.68% (+8.25%)
Grundy -5.22% (-9.92%)
Fyfe -5.01% (-5.83%)
PCripps -5.01% (-17.09%)
Dunkley -4.99% (-10.34%)
Treloar -4.86% (-5.41%)
Blicavs -4.44% (+18.52%)
Mitchell -4.03 (-8.80% – 2018)

Does anyone know why Shuey’s TOG% was so low?

Other relevant Players:
Zorko -3.65% (-10.28%)
Issac Smith -3.05% (-10.84%)
Presita -2.86% (-16.35%)
Lycett -1.82% (-5.94%)
Maynard -1.58% (+18.29%)

Most other players were less than a 1% decrease in TOG%

There are a few players from the above lists that i’m interested in, including TMitchell, Laird, Grundy, Cripps, Dunkley, Treloar, Blicavs

Demons Delight

Well done Derek saved me a heap of time .I was keen on a few that many were not .This only tells me my research was on the money Dunkley.Blicavs Tich and Laird really come into it now..

dontblushbaby

Excellent info Derek, much appreciated mate

Lekdog

Amazing!

Russty_

Nice work Derek, think Shuey had hammy issues early last season and then missed games later in the season with the same thing, has a calf issue now, and he’s 30

Derek

never on my list

James

Can anyone tell me please when supercoach opens too the public? I don’t have SC gold

Damian

8 days mate

Derek

another way to look at the TOG% issue is to look at the Time NOT on Ground (TNOG% – i just made that up).
Obviously the TNOG% is the inverse of the TOG%, but the interesting part is to look at the actual minutes (not the percentage) of time of the ground for each player and more importantly the actual number of minutes NOT on the ground.

For example; L Neale’s TOG increased from 88.79% to 92.26%, his actual number of playing minutes dropped from 71.03 mins to 59.05 mins. Meaning they worked harder in the time they were on the field.

The way I look at it, the time OFF the field is when they aren’t scoring points, and analysing this is worth a look.

I looked at each players TNOG% and converted that into actual minutes and compared the reduction in TNOG from 2019 to 2020 and converted that into a %.
For Example; L Neale TNOG increased from 8.97 mins in 2019 to 4.95 mins in 2020. This calculated to an decrease of TNOG of 44.76%.

What does this mean?

A large decrease in TNOG% means that player had a higher chance of scoring points than the previous year because they were off the ground for less minutes. As a result of the shorter quarters but the same 3300 SC points available, the PPM substantially increased in 2020. therefore, a larger % decrease in TNOG and the inflated PPM in 2020, resulted in an inflated SC score.

At the top of the list (of relevant players) were;

Gaff (71.52%)
Gawn (57.96%)
Ryan (53.56%)
Wingard (53.41%)
DeGoey (53.34%)
Hawkins (51.39%)
Coniglio (51.51%)
Goldstien (48.44%)
Dusty (47.98%)
Neale (44.76%)

At the bottom of the list of relevant players were;

Shuey (-17.31%)
Titch (-17.10%)
Blicavs (-16.07%)
Cripps (-15.47%)
Laird (-14.91%)
Grundy (-14.19%)
Fyfe (-5.47%)
Dunkley (-1.81%)
Billings (-1.19%
Rich (+3.19%)

What this highlights is players who had more opportunity to score points (because they were off the field less than previously) when Points Per Minute were more valuable.

On the flip-side, it shows players who had an increase in TNOG in real minutes and therefore missed the opportunity to collect more of the PPM.

Last edited 3 days ago by Derek
Russty_

That’s a big honour for Zac Williams inheriting Kade Simpson’s number, hopefully he can live up to it this season and beyond , is he a lock this year to start…does anyone know how he’s going at training?

Derek

He is in and out of my team. I don’t want him to be the 2021 version of Houston and get a quarter here and there in the midfield

Russty_

Houston still averaged 91 so not terrible, from bits and pieces I’ve read Williams will be mostly midfield this season.

Derek

There is a lot of choice in defence this year, many good players priced between $450-$550k that could be keepers and many that will score around 91 ave.

Demons Delight

Good and bad news at the DEES practice match Petracca and Hore injured themselves with Hore’s looking bad The good BEN BROWN starred in only one half booting 3 goals .

gator59

What are the injuries?

Last edited 1 day ago by gator59
Demons Delight

tracca shoulder but came back late and hore looked like a calf in doubt but not relevant How’s the reno going mate?

gator59

Tracca AC Joint? …Not good atm, My brother that is helping me has done his back in.. Hope to get rolling around the middle of next week after the heat.

Hore has done ACL.. Out for year poor bugger

Last edited 1 day ago by gator59
Demons Delight

Is marshall going solo Would still be a great pick if not and the other sainter in my mix is Steele but how does crouch affect him

gator59

If Marshall can average 103 like last year and that;s with Ryder playing, Then he’s a lock for me.. Steele is an absolute gun and I’m still debating whether to start him or Mitchell.

Demons Delight

Amazing exactly my thoughts Tich has that shoulder but i have enoughcoin to get Steele—– dunno