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Cheat Sheet | Round 10

Published by Statty Matty on

It seems like just a few days ago I was writing a cheat sheet … because I was. I hope you’re all enjoying the Festival of Fantasy. It’s definitely test all of us, and I assume the number crunchers at Supercoach House.

As I mentioned last week, the format has change a little this week. No pretty images to confuse and confound you. Just some wise words. I’m focussing more on who you should trade in this week. I’m sure you all know when your cash cows can be led to slaughter (Avg and BE are about the same), so I won’t waste time on those players.

Tom Stewart – $443k – Avg 92, BE 31 – BUY

The most obvious target this week is Tom Stewart. He had 145 which is his highest SC score ever, and still didn’t reach his BE. He dropped $7.6k and now has a BE of 31, so should make that back prettty easily. He was in fantastic form prior to injuring his collarbone, and this is the time to get him.

Jake Lloyd – $610k – Avg 117, BE 81 – WAIT

Perennial top 6 in Defence, Lloyd had 77 in Round 1 and has tonned up every week since then, with highs of 126, 145 and 157. He’s worth the cash, and will go up in price from here. Wait a week, and make him a target next week.

Mitch Duncan – $521k – Avg 111, BE 29 – BUY

Often overlooked in the Cats when thinking of SC relevant midfielders, he’s in only 2% of teams, but Duncan rarely disappoints. Averaging 111, his lowest score (excluding when he did a hamstring against Brisbane) has been 114, while posting 130s and 140s. He’s a bargain at $521k, and will have a bye later in the season.

Travis Boak – $494k – Avg 105, BE 138 – WAIT / WATCH

Boak is having another tremendous season after last year’s effort. A couple of low scoring rounds against GWS, and the Saints, bu 159 against Freo, and 133 on Brisbane. Found a bit of his form against Melbourne last week with 104. He’ll drop a little more in price next week, but expect him to ramp up as Port make a powerful run home towards the finals.

Connor Rozee – $282k – Avg 66, BE 67 – BUY WITH CAUTION

I know some of you will be thinking I’m kidding for suggesting Rozee. I was lucky to hold him from the start, but kept him too long and lost a bit of coin, so I won’ be doing this trade … but he’s a 60pt a game player, with a massive ceiling. He’s not gonna lose any money, and could provide a more consistent cover over the byes than a $200k rookie. He has job security, and that may be just as valuable, for the same cost of a trade in and a trade out in 3-4 weeks.

Sam Draper – $123k – Avg 73, BE -22 – BUY

Don’t we all love these rookie ruckmen … ruckies. Draper looked solid against the Oscar McInerney and the Lions with a debut 73. He’s not gonna be a top 3 Ruckman this season, but if you have a non-playing R3, he could provide some cover if Gawn, Grundy or Goldy are managed or injured over the next few weeks.

Boyd Woodcock – $102k – still to debut – GO EARLY?

If you feel like going early on a rookie, Boyd Woodcock from the Power is playing his debut tonight against the Bulldogs. Played much of his junior and SANFL footy with school mate Connor Rozee, and averaged over 2 goals a game in 2018 playing in North Adelaide’s SANFL premiership team.

Anyway, good luck everyone. Stay safe. I know a vast number of the JR Community are in Victoria. The rest of us are thinking of you and crossing every appendage that things work out ok.


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Neverweaken

Ok. First to ask a question. Balta or Draper?
Thinking Balta in the Fwd line and scoring. Can switch to Ruck if I need too.
Or Draper to sit on the bench and make money?

Pman

If you have Gawn you may wish to pick Draper given the injury (soft tissue) for Max which puts him in some doubt.

Neverweaken

At least the best 18 means I can cop a Gawn donut this week. Or next week. Almost want him to rest now

Steeeve

Going up to Stewart this week. $114k left over. Considering just the one trade for now. Maybe if Sam Skinner gets another game I could grab him, or go early on Tobe Watson… but thinking I might be best to hold fire. Not many of my cash cows are fat, and none of the bubble boys excite me this week. I'd get Draper but already went early on Brooksby just to get rid of Pittonet before he lost too much money.

Then next week I'll look at Starcevic down to Watson. (Will have $214k roughly). Budarick or Bennell down could get me to $320k for a nice upgrade to Fyfe or even Simpkin if he shows some form.

Steeeve

Anyone else considering saving a trade or two this week?

redherringfc

I need to make 3 trades to get 1 upgrade. And i’m still only able to scrape together 550k.

Tofa

mate I'm trading Brayshaw and Docherty up to Duncan and Stewart just cos I can. if you've got trades there's always value to chase

L G

JS of Sam Skinner ?

Pman

Has been picked for 2nd game but could be in trouble once McStay is back next week. That said I'm selecting him as he can play and is super hungry given how much footy he's missed due to 3 knee reconstructions and is highly regarded within the Lions set up.

L G

great insights thanks Pman

Sam

Noble and budarick out for Woodcock/skinner and Stewart or budarick, rivers and smith out for Duncan Draper and woodcock/skinner?

JohnDJ59

I'd keep Noble for now, his BE is only 34 and why are people so keen on getting Woodcock in before he's even played, can't you wait a week till he's on the bubble.

Bolting Balta

Any merit in going Naitanui to Draper? Would enable me to go Aarts/Rankine to Petracca next week, with the end goal being to go Draper to Gawn when he bottoms out. Would love some opinions cheers.

cogs94

I'm going English to Draper before he starts bleeding cash, and Stephen Hill and McInerney are being updgraded to Stewart and Duncan.

Its a risk, but when it's best 18 I figure it's as good a time as any to take one.

Ben Bretel

do i go to duncan for value or bring in neale ?

Dash

Rankine to Draper via Combden?
S Hill or Brander – Stewart?

Dash

Or Combden to Draper
Rankine – Skinner
Brander – Stewart

Then I lose Combden loop. Which one option

JohnDJ59

I like option two, but it depends if you want to keep your loop or not..

jonno

1. ballenden or skinner?
2. stewart or duncan?
3. trade sympkin or dev smith?

Jess

Skinner.

Depends on your defence and fwd structure. My defence is complete so im going duncan. Both top picks.

Trade Dev and cross your fingers for simpkin

Pulsman

What are our thoughts on Cripps keep or hold

cogs94

Keep for mine. He has lost so much cash, and his breakeven is finally low again. Same as Docherty.

If they are your only way to get to Stewart or Duncan it might be worth a look, but I would try to avoid it.

Mikee

Keep <img src="https://tinyurl.com/yxbbsslm&quot; width="1"/><img src=&quotcomment image" width="1"/>

Russty_

Mikee.. you are the man of the fewest words ever mate, love your work ! 🙂

hedski

How long is Doedee out for?
I can go Rankine to Skinner, Doedee to Stewart and McInerny to MacRae ($50k left over), or Rankine to Skinner, MacPherson (still has money to make) to Stewart and MacInerny to a $518k mid ($2k off Bont/Duncan)?
Leaning towards the first but the second gets a rookie off the ground (MacPherson).
Cheers.

Jess

Thats the issue- he could be back this week or might not. Could have managed minutes…who knows. I traded him last week for this reason

hedski

Good call Jess, thanks, I could also go MacInerny to Duncan/Bont instead of Macrae and have near $200k for next week….hmmmm.
Cheers.

Akkers

Can you loophole with a bye player?

hedski

Yeah mate

Pman

Thoughts on the following trades;
OUT Simpkin ($425,400) IN Draper ($123,900)
OUT Noble ($305,100) IN Stewart ($443,000)
OUT Conroy ($102,400) IN Mayes ($301,700) with $174K left over for next week.

Is it too late to get Mayes in? He is averaging 92 which is cheap for $301K but can he keep it up? Am thinking he will be a M8 and likely to socre more than the injured and out of form Simpkin. Thoughts?

Russty_

I don't mind it mate, Mayes is 26 and relishing his chance, not sure why he scored so low that one game but his other 2 scores were good.

Pman

Cheers Rustty…generally am loathe to trade in mid pricers but $301K and averaging 90 odd seems too good value to pass up and I don't know what to expect from Simpkin moving forward as feel he'll get the hard tag every week until Cunnington is back in.

Russty_

I'm getting him in myself this week, and yes I wish I could get rid of Simpkin too but it'll have to wait a bit for now…so disappointing how his scores have fallen away. Good luck for this week mate.

Pman

Good luck to you too..

Russty_

We might need it…he's not going so well lol

Pman

Backfiring spectacuarly for me at the moment with Mayes 22 points as HT and likely to get rubbed out for a week! Watch Simpkin go massive now….I never learn. If I triple downgrade this week then I can turn Mayes into Macrae next week if he cops a week and scores a turd tonight.

Russty_

I'm thinking he might only cop a fine…but jeez hope he at least gets to a 75 or so tonight…otherwise we just bought a very expensive spud.

Pman

Hope you are right on both counts…

JohnDJ59

Why would you trade out Noble after the game he just had with a BE of 34, he is still going to make cash and could score well at the same time.

Neverweaken

Who is woodcock? Only interested cos its tonight and he is so so cheap to help with other trades

clarkey

have we missed the boat on close?
his only 146k still

Pman

Still a bargain, it's now or never though.

Maverick_

Skinner or Close? unsure on eithers JS with selwood and others on the way back in soon

My other two ins are Duncan and Draper.

JohnDJ59

Either, both could be gone in two weeks time. You could also look at Bell from Sydney.

Maverick_

Bell got some better JS John?

JohnDJ59

I just recon that he's played two not bad games and could be in the Swans side longer than Skinner and Close are in theirs. The only problem is Sydney has the bye next week and who knows what happens after that. I already have Close, got him in on the bubble, tossing up between Skinner and Bell as one of my downgrade this weekend.

Dave2008

Usually go for League wins and bragging rights but I am not ranked 971st, which will be obviously hard to maintain. Without giving away any personal tactics you don’t want to, how do you usually go about going for overall rank? I’d say obviously go for low owned PODs? Also trade hard in the bye rounds?
Thanks for any thoughts!

Russty_

I'm also not ranked 971st Dave ,but seriously…I reckon someone like Holty or Derek are qualified to answer your question..Holty gave it a good crack last season and was right up there for most of the season.

JugHead

I'm the wrong one to give an opinion seeing as I'm ranked outside 10,000.
But from what I've seen, the key thing seem to be, do not choose premos who regularly…..
1. Get a two week injury trimming their fingernails.
2. Have an on field brain snap twice a season and get rubbed out by the MRP.
3. Have an off field brain snap twice a season and get rubbed out by their club.
4. Score 140+ points every 5th week and bask in the glory by spudding it up for the next four weeks.

John

Timing with trades and luck are the key ingredients, look at last rd B.Smith Dusty and Whitfield all had BE’s of around 70 and around 60k between them, if you picked Smith you would of ended up 110pts behind the coach who picked Dusty, another example 2 premo defenders bottomed out last rd in Hurn and Stewart-80pts between them, last rd also we had the choice of trading out 2 fattened up rookies in King and Taylor, one with a BE under his average the other with a BE over his average, the general rule of thumb is to trade the one with the higher BE than average, King scores a 90 odd, Taylor half that and just gets his BE. I hope you give it a good crack mate but this game requires a lot of things to go right for you and then some luck on top of it. Having said that, I do love this game that drives me insane at times!

TOPHAWK1

Dan Houston……Buddy…..You were everywhere in the first half of the first quarter. Then……nothing…….NOTHING!!! Let me tell you something mate, I better see something in the second half or I'll put something up a place where the sun don't shine. And it aint one of my body parts let me tell ya. Now get out there and show me something!!!

Ken Hinkley storms off……

Russty_

Dan to deliver a 95 for ya this week mate, he heard your kick up the keister and is currently getting his shit together as we speak.

Derek

When port got on top in second half, ball just didn’t get down his end. Played pure defender, dam you rocky

The G Train

Would love for someone from Champion Data/Supercoach to justify Bont being on 58 at half time. 11 Disposals, only 3 of which are kicks, going at 54% (6 effective disposals), 2 tackles, 4 clearance, 3 clangers and 2 frees against. Genuinely stumped.

JugHead

Denis Denuto works at CD…….. Its the vibe.

dontblushbaby

Rocky turned the clock back tonight, watch everyone chase his points next round

JohnDJ59

Not me.

JugHead

I won't be bringing him in, but Ladhams is the one that caught my attention.
Very low score last week, but two tons now in four games.
The kid is trying to make it hard for Port to drop him when Lycett is ready to go.

David C

Lycett will play next game so the moment of truth has arrived.

Russty_

Does Ladhams keep his place regardless though?…as a rotating fwd / backup Ruck for Lycett, with Marshall being out for the next 5 to 6 weeks.

Tony

Im very undecided on whether to trade rankine or not.

To those holding, how much more money do you think he can make?

JohnDJ59

He's just about maxed out, his BE is 76, the same as his average, the only reason to hold him is the fact he is playing and has shown he can get a big score for a rookie when he is on.

ST1974

I have a similar dilemma and tossing up between Curtis Taylor and Rankine in relation to who is going to go this week. At the moment I am looking to offload Taylor as his break even is higher and likely to lose more cash than Rankine. If you have no one else in your forward line that needs to go then I would trade him out especially since both Skinner (Bris) and Draper (Ess) are available and on the bubble this week.

JohnDJ59

Taylor is injured, has to go now.

Russty_

Good riddance I say John…lol, one less stinky score per week.

JohnDJ59

He was my first trade this week and that was before I knew he was injured.

Russty_

Amen brother.

ST1974

Great work under difficult circumstances Matty. I am looking at making two, possibly three trades this week and would like your thoughts community on which of the following options I should go with:
A) C Taylor to Skinner and Simpkin to Cognilio – Leaves 40k
B) Option A except Simpkin to Duncan
C) Option A or B plus Williamson to Ling – this trade is a luxury as I have more than 18 on the field and could be done next week.

Also,; any news on whether Gawn is playing as I am trying to decide between him and Neale for captain this week after putting the VC on Mcrae last night.

Appreciate any thoughts or advice community.

choppers

Gawn stated this morning that he'll train today and be on the plane to Adelaide. Results of scans were OK.

Russty_

Can't keep a big bad brave beautiful bearded bastard down for long choppers.

Choppers

ya got that right, Rusty……

Russty_

Hey ST Gawny is a tough bugger, has played through injury plenty of times, I'm still going Neale as C just in case, and cause Neale is the bomb.
P.S I like option A or B, slightly lean more towards Duncan although Cogs is coming good now.
Duncan for his consistency.

Pman

I'm making Neale VC tonight with Gawn as back up Captain should Neale have a quiet one…which is unlikely!

Russty_

Bloody oath PMAN…very unlikely~!

JohnDJ59

Good to get the VC/C out of the way early in the round.

sam

hows t watson's js? worth getting him in?

Joe

Is Docherty to Stewart a good idea

sam

no

Jim BOb

Hi All,
Struggling with the Gawn question. A shoulder and a PCL does not sound good at all. Even if he plays, he will be reduced output (though it is Max and whenever you say that he seems to score 150).
I have close to a full side, except Pickett at M8 and D Smith a F6. Doedee (maybe injured?) is my D6.
If I trade Gawn to Nic Nat, I can trade Pickett to Neale (who I unsuccessfully have been waiting to drop in price for weeks).
Currently ranked 753 with 9 trades remaining..
What do you think?