Top 10 Data Set: A Forward Line Story

Published by Damo on

Something interested me recently, so I put Statty Matty on the case, about what the top 10 looked like for each position over the last 5 years. I requested this data set because I felt like there wasn’t a lot of quality this year in the forward line as blatantly as there has been in the past.

We no longer have Brett Deledio or Luke Dahlhaus as safe options, the former retiring, and the latter fading into obscurity at Geelong. Yeo, Billings, Menegola, Dangerfield and Marshall, who rose to fame over the last few seasons, have been filed into their “correct” positions, so we no longer have any “gifts” either other than Dustin Martin and Lachie Whitfield.

So what sorts of players do you select? Well, if you’re going off total points you want someone who can average at least 87. Not a very high average for someone you’re aiming to keep, but a high averaging player in the forward line more often than not doesn’t always play 22 games.

Brett Deledio was the top averaging forward in 2015 with 111.8, but Luke Dahlhaus was the top player by total points with 2409 for the year (averaging 104.7), Deledio played 17 out of a possible 22 games, versus Dahlhaus who played every game.

You probably would’ve wanted both, but in a game where durability and trading go hand in hand, maybe you could’ve sat Deledio on the shelf to go for cheaper options who would be more durable, like a Shaun Higgins who was ranked 8th for total points but only averaged 94.3 in 2015, while only missing one game.

Moving to a more recent year like the one that just passed, 2019, of the top 10 available to us this year, only 1 of them is still a forward, and that player is Michael Walters.

If you’re like me, you like to select based on the previous years results but the forward line doesn’t present that opportunity as obviously to us this year so we have to get creative, which is why all these mid-priced options like Christian Petracca, Chad Wingard, Darcy MacPherson, Hugh Greenwood, and Andrew Brayshaw are so attractive to us because there’s nobody else to really look at.

So who should you select this year? What this data tells me is you need to find a bit of balance between someone who will play 22 games, and someone who will average a high amount and who fits these criteria might be hard to find.

Christian Petracca has only missed 1 game over the last three seasons and looks fit as a fiddle and has regularly threatened to launch an assault on the competition. Andrew Brayshaw looks set for more midfield time but does that mean a better average? The only games he’s missed are through no fault of his own and then you get Chad Wingard who regularly battles calf and hamstring complaints, and Hugh Greenwood, who couldn’t nail down a regular spot in the Adelaide side since that nightmare of a Grand Final appearance, is now at the Gold Coast.

All these players should average somewhere in the 85-95 range all going to plan, but will they be the top averaging forwards? No. Probably not.

Who will be the top averaging forward? Top averaging doesn’t always mean durable enough to play 22 games.

Any time I pick a GWS player, I’m always worried about the clubs strength and conditioning team because a one week injury can turn into six despite being “in the mix” for all six weeks they are out, but Whitfield for all money should be the top averaging forward, in theory, Will he be? I’m undecided. For the amount you’re paying you want to be confident that he’s the top averaging forward and will play 22 games. Dustin Martin is cheaper and unfortunately more likely to miss games through suspension than injury, but less likely to miss games than Whitfield overall. Neither GWS or Tigers look like teams going backwards so I think both of these players are a good chance to finish 1 & 2, but that doesn’t mean I recommend selecting both. Purely due to track record, I have Dustin Martin as the safer top selection ahead of Whitfield.

To summarise, the idea for the article came from me asking “Have the forward options been this bad every year or have we gotten a worse bunch this season?” and what I learned was yes, this year appears that the options available to us are worse than usual, but we only need whoever we select to average 87 and play 22 games to be a chance to finish as a top 10 forward.

I’ll let you all have access to the data that Statty Matty slaved tirelessly to conjure up for me, because even if this article didn’t help you make a decision, maybe the data set might still be interesting.

The Data Set has two sets of data, the top 10 by average, and the top 10 by total points. A funny highlight is that Trent McKenzie was last year’s top averaging defender with 110 despite only playing 1 game for the entire year.

Download the Data Set HERE

You can follow me on Twitter @DamoSC
and go and thank Statty Matty for all his hard work over at @MattyB_76


14 Comments

JohnDJ59 · 27/02/2020 at 00:42

Hi Damo, I'm glad you wrote this article, since the fwd line is always the hardest to put together and getting worse as every year passes. It is the only line I haven't settled on. F1 will be out of Whitfield, Walters and Dusty, F2 is Petracca for now. F3 is out of Rozee and D.Smith. I've had C.Jones at F4 for a while now so that probably won't change, F5 maybe Bonar and F6 will be Budarick if picked for round one.

Derek · 27/02/2020 at 11:01

Great article Damo

Everyone is pretty much obsessed with players averages

A great average doesn’t help much when they miss a week of the bye rounds and you have big fat donuts on your field.

In my best finishing years, it has always been because I have avoided injury (always by luck than anything else) gives good consistent points and saves trades for the run home.

6 months ago I thought we would only have to worry about selecting 28 players this year because 100% of teams would have Titch and Docherty locked in. At the moment I have neither, the missing a few games risk is high for both.

87 does seem low for a premium forward, but you can’t argue with maths.

Missing a few games, means a bench player score, which could be 23. On a good day let’s say 40. So a player who averages 95, but misses 1 game, his average will fall to (substituting a 40) to 93, Misses 2 games; 90 ave, 3 games; 87.

Heeny is a good example. 3 years ago averaged 98, but missed 3 games, 2 years ago averages 97 but misses 1 game, last year averages 94 but played all 22. If we adjust his average based on taking a 40 score to substitute his missing weeks, we get a 3 year average of 87, 93, 94.

Dusty’s last 3 adjusted scores are 119, 101, 94
Whitfield last 3 adjusted years; 81, 100, 92
Petracca last 3 years; 79, 80, 81.

So many numbers to crunch. Thanks Dani and Matty

    JohnDJ59 · 27/02/2020 at 12:37

    Hi Derek, I'm happy to hear I'm not the only one who isn't starting Titch and Doc, I can get Neale and Clark for around the same price. Looking at those numbers, I might end up going with Walters at F1, could be a bit of a POD, in fact my whole fwd line could end up being one big POD.

      Derek · 27/02/2020 at 13:00

      Neale ahead of Titch and Houston ahead of Doch at this stage.

      I thought Doch would have been cheaper, he is yet to be seen in flesh

    Rick · 27/02/2020 at 15:05

    Agree. A player's true average is total points divided by 22. So Trent McKenzie's average last season was 5.

    Maverick_ · 27/02/2020 at 18:27

    Got a JR keeper draft league going derek.
    one spot left jump in if you like mate .
    CODE- 543657

    might need to increase the league to 10 yet

      derek · 28/02/2020 at 13:10

      thanks mav. i'm in

        derek · 28/02/2020 at 13:13

        i see a few of the same fellas from Jocks Jungleland are there. should be good

Derek · 27/02/2020 at 14:53

I think they only got a 15% price discount instead of the usual 30%

Northerner · 27/02/2020 at 17:21

I’ve got a fair idea of the ranking of my premos in each line. However it’s going to come down to the rookies and balancing my on field rookies between the sub $125k cheapies and those you pay up for in the $150-250k range. No doubt there will be compromises.

More than recent seasons, I think the rookies will define success this year.

I’d be wanting cheap rookies to average at least ~55-60 range, which means a $225k rookie will need to generate 75-80. Rowell will do that on his ear barring injury. Taking Bonar as an another example, he’ll need to average 70-80 to be worth the extra $80k – which I suspect he will do if he’s in their midfield and best 22. Stephens, vandenBerg, Sparrow etc. v the cheaper McHenry types. How many of those relatively higher rookies I end up with will determine how much compromise to my premos is required. I think if you nail a combination of cheap rookies around the 60 mark and the expensive rookies at the 80 mark – or a better way to put it is no rookies that average the 20-40 range – your early season points and cash generation will give you the best POD to other teams, more so than in other years.

Thoughts?

    derek · 28/02/2020 at 13:21

    i think you are over estimating.

    no way you can expect a Bonar to score 80.

    The way it needs to work is you need to make CASH with your rookies. nothing else really matters.

    the way you make cash it you hope your bargin price rookies have ONE good game. hopefully their 3rd game.

    the big score stays in their price calculation for three weeks, therefore getting a price bump each week.

    A rookie who scores 60, 60, 60. 60 won't make you as much as a rookie who scores 40, 120, 40. 40, even though their average is the same.

Northerner · 27/02/2020 at 17:25

Views on Adam Cerra? Hearing some good comments from Freo coaching staff. I know Damo is on Brayshaw as a FWD, but I think there’s more value options in the fwd line this year than in the defenders. Cerra as a similar option to Brayshaw but in defence and a little cheaper?

    JR_Damo · 03/03/2020 at 00:01

    Northerner, I've only just seen this. I'm sorry it took so long to reply. I like Adam Cerra and he's a chance to match Brayshaw's scoring this year purely due to his generally cleaner disposal. Only worry is that Cerra is also more likely to be pushed out of the midfield, while Brayshaw might be more fixed in there.

Northerner · 27/02/2020 at 18:55

Cerra named starting on wing in Marsh.

Comments are closed.