Supercoach Analysis | Old & Proven v Young & Improving
Entering the Danger zone? Age shall not weary the them..
By Captain Risky
So Patrick Dangerfield has been a mainstay of any good supercoach team since breaking out in 2012, for 8 glorious years, sometimes as a mid, and sometimes we get lucky and he is a forward, but always someone we needed in the side.
Hell, just look at some of those scores from last year….A high of 163 with 7 scores over 140+ ( 156, 154, 149, 146×2, 141 ) for an average of 115.2. Sure it wasn’t quite as good as the 121.7 in 2018, or the 136.5 in 2017 (Best so far), a small but acceptable decline, nothing to worry about, probably Chris Scott’s fault right? So this year, Tim Kelly has gone to West Coast, he’ll be spending more time in the mid, and the good times will roll on right?
Well, come April this year, dear old Paddy will be 30 years old. Nothing to worry about. Fit, healthy, injury free and fired up for another bumper year in our teams. I doubt many of you would have any other 30 year old’s in your midfields (eg Bryce Gibbs, Mitch Robinson or Ed Curnow for example) there might be a few 31year old’s that might temp you ?.. Shaun Higgins!, Joel Selwood, Dayne Zorko, Joel Selwood or Josh P Kennedy. Or the ever-reliable Scott Pendlebury at 32 surely has a few more good years left right?
So has age crept up on Dangerfield?, How is he tracking compared to some of the other greats at the same age? – Say Selwood, Pendlebury and Ablett Jnr, and how has their scoring changed with age?
Dangerfield’s scoring peaked ( thus far) at age 27, Selwood 26, Ablett 25 and Pendlebury 23. All 4 were scoring at their best during the 25/ 26 years old period.
For interest, Nat Fyfe’s best was at age 23 -5 years ago in 2015 , Josh P Kennedy’s was in 2012 @ 23 also , Dusty’s [email protected] 25. So Dangerfield’s best days are probably behind him. 2020 is likely to be another good year, but how good?
The Risky projection is 105-115. Definitely some big scores again, maybe a few poor ones as well.
What are your thoughts?
So who can we pick?
Given anyone 27-29 isn’t improving, probably declining or at least they have reached there likely potential / peak. ( except Marlion Pickett at 28, the only way is up!)
Those in the 30+ bracket are looking for a role up forward or in defence, and those in the 20-22 bracket are improving, the best chances for premium and career best scores are those players in the 23-26 year old bracket.
What does this all mean?
Unfortunately, you probably shouldn’t pick Shaun Higgins. All of the gun mid premos are in the 23-27 category, excluding Fyfe and Danger.. are they bad picks? No. will they peak this year? Probably not. Anyone 23-27 isn’t likely for a breakout year either, maybe Coniglio has peaked and around 110 is his range.
Who will breakout? Who will step up to become a Uber Premo? Can Oliver improve even more, can Taranto, Worpel and McCluggage reach the next level? So many questions, and I have no answers!
Personally, I’ll be looking mostly at the 22-26 years old’s to fill my starting team. More upside, less downside. Some wise advice I read somewhere, maybe don’t pick breakout contenders in the midfield, leave that to the forward and defensive lines. Less chance of ruining your season!
What about the rest?
Well defenders are a different Species.
Danial Rich 29, Houli 31 and Hurn 32 just had career best scores, (yes maybe the rules changed a bit), but it’s still an impressive effort. Health Shaw 34 , Simpson 35 and Burgoyne 37 just keep on playing. We’ve heard rumours that Gibbs, Westhoff and Pendles will be playing more in defence this year, which just proves that when all else fails then you can become a defender!
It would seem the defenders peak later, and last longer. (Does that sound like a dodgy billboard ad?) There are some tempting breakout contenders, and all the Premos are at a good age, except Hurn, Houli and perhaps Rich who just had career best years, so what would I know!
Who knows what the hell to do with Forwards
Well look, holy crap, Wingard is in his prime! I probably won’t pick him, nor should you.
Heeney is looking good. If only Horse would play him in the midfield he’d be a damn fine selection. TJ Lynch is also in his prime and slightly cheap, so if you want to pick a key position player, you could do worse. What fun is life without risk?
Really, I have no good advice on how to pick a forward. Pick Whitfield, pick Dusty, then pick a player who you can select in the forward line but doesn’t actually play as a forward – Rucks, Defenders, Mids…anyone but forwards.
What about the Rucks, well I have another article planned for them, it seems they take longer to develop..
In Summary, these are just the numbers, I haven’t attempted to factor in injuries, positions played, whether they had a scoring friendly role or a bad coach etc etc, so interpret at your own risk. Picking players at their peak age will maximise your scoring, which ones? No Idea! Don’t take my advice, I’m bad at supercoach.