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Supercoach Analysis | Old & Proven v Young & Improving

Published by Community Member on

Entering the Danger zone? Age shall not weary the them..

By Captain Risky

So Patrick Dangerfield has been a mainstay of any good supercoach team since breaking out in 2012, for 8 glorious years, sometimes as a mid, and sometimes we get lucky and he is a forward, but always someone we needed in the side.

Hell, just look at some of those scores from last year….A high of 163 with 7 scores over 140+ ( 156, 154, 149, 146×2, 141 ) for an average of 115.2.  Sure it wasn’t quite as good as the 121.7 in 2018, or the 136.5 in 2017 (Best so far),  a small but acceptable decline, nothing to worry about, probably Chris Scott’s fault right?  So this year, Tim Kelly has gone to West Coast, he’ll be spending more time in the mid, and the good times will roll on right? 

Well, come April this year, dear old Paddy will be 30 years old. Nothing to worry about. Fit, healthy, injury free and fired up for another bumper year in our teams. I doubt many of you would have any other 30 year old’s in your midfields (eg Bryce Gibbs, Mitch Robinson or Ed Curnow for example) there might be a few 31year old’s that might temp you ?.. Shaun Higgins!, Joel Selwood, Dayne Zorko, Joel Selwood or Josh P Kennedy. Or the ever-reliable Scott Pendlebury at 32 surely has a few more good years left right?

So has age crept up on Dangerfield?, How is he tracking compared to some of the other greats at the same age? – Say Selwood, Pendlebury and Ablett Jnr, and how has their scoring changed with age?

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Dangerfield’s scoring peaked ( thus far) at age 27, Selwood 26, Ablett 25 and Pendlebury 23. All 4 were scoring at their best during the 25/ 26 years old period.

For interest, Nat Fyfe’s best was at age 23  -5 years ago in 2015  , Josh P Kennedy’s was in 2012 @ 23 also , Dusty’s [email protected] 25.  So Dangerfield’s best days are probably behind him. 2020 is likely to be another good year, but how good?

The Risky projection is 105-115.  Definitely some big scores again, maybe a few poor ones as well.

What are your thoughts?

So who can we pick?

Given anyone 27-29 isn’t improving, probably declining or at least they have reached there likely potential / peak. ( except Marlion Pickett at 28, the only way is up!)

Those in the 30+ bracket are looking for a role up forward or in defence, and those in the 20-22 bracket are improving, the best chances for premium and career best scores are those players in the 23-26 year old bracket.   

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What does this all mean?

Unfortunately, you probably shouldn’t pick Shaun Higgins. All of the gun mid premos are in the 23-27 category, excluding Fyfe and Danger.. are they bad picks? No. will they peak this year? Probably not. Anyone 23-27 isn’t likely for a breakout year either, maybe Coniglio has peaked and around 110 is his range.

Who will breakout? Who will step up to become a Uber Premo? Can Oliver improve even more, can Taranto, Worpel and McCluggage reach the next level? So many questions, and I have no answers!

 Personally, I’ll be looking mostly at the 22-26 years old’s to fill my starting team. More upside, less downside. Some wise advice I read somewhere, maybe don’t pick breakout contenders in the midfield, leave that to the forward and defensive lines. Less chance of ruining your season!

What about the rest?

Well defenders are a different Species.

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Danial Rich 29, Houli 31 and Hurn 32 just had career best scores, (yes maybe the rules changed a bit), but it’s still an impressive effort. Health Shaw 34 , Simpson 35 and Burgoyne 37 just keep on playing. We’ve heard rumours that Gibbs, Westhoff and Pendles will be playing more in defence this year, which just proves that when all else fails then you can become a defender!

It would seem the defenders peak later, and last longer. (Does that sound like a dodgy billboard ad?) There are some tempting breakout contenders, and all the Premos are at a good age, except Hurn, Houli and perhaps Rich who just had career best years, so what would I know!

Who knows what the hell to do with Forwards

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Well look, holy crap, Wingard is in his prime! I probably won’t pick him, nor should you.

 Heeney is looking good.  If only Horse would play him in the midfield he’d be a damn fine selection. TJ Lynch is also in his prime and slightly cheap, so if you want to pick a key position player, you could do worse. What fun is life without risk? 

Really, I have no good advice on how to pick a forward. Pick Whitfield, pick Dusty, then pick a player who you can select in the forward line but doesn’t actually play as a forward – Rucks, Defenders, Mids…anyone but forwards. 

What about the Rucks, well I have another article planned for them, it seems they take longer to develop..

In Summary, these are just the numbers, I haven’t attempted to factor in injuries, positions played, whether they had a scoring friendly role or a bad coach etc etc, so interpret at your own risk. Picking players at their peak age will maximise your scoring, which ones? No Idea! Don’t take my advice, I’m bad at supercoach.

Cheers CaptRisky


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Jess

This is the article i was waiting for, thanks.

I still dont know who the better pick out of Dangerfield and Oliver will be, and while i currently only have danger in my team, all these teams with a cheaper oliver that could explode are very intimidating. The 'age factor' is sometimes the sort of thing you cant guarantee will happen until it does. Even Boak last year had a career best season. Think all my current mids – Macrae, Fyfe, Cripps, Dunkley and Danger have a good shot at pushing towards 120 averages, and for this reason i cant fit Oliver.

So im throwing it out there to the community – Danger or Oliver this year? (Old Vs Young)

JohnDJ59

My Current top 5 in my midfield is Fyfe, Cripps, Dunkley, Danger, Oliver. I only had Danger last year due to being able to play him in the fwd line, the year before I didn't start him, picked him up for about 200k cheaper as an upgrade. I looked at my comments from last year on who I would be picking in the mids this year and I was doubtful about Danger being a mid only, too old, could start getting injured ? I am now contemplating going with Neale instead. So as far as your question goes, Oliver over Danger.

KeenButClueless

I think Oliver over Danger.

My feeling is that Dangers output will decline rather than increase. He’s still a very important piece of their forward structure. I don’t see Geelong undoing that to give him more mid time. I see it more likely that young guns like Narkle, Parfitt and Clark will take the Kelly role. Maybe even Menegola who never got right last season.

I can’t think of too many times when someone has moved from primary midfield to a mix of midfield and forward, drops their forward role and becomes more mid again. Boak last year was probably the exception, but I suspect that he was not right in 2018, so they gave him the lesser role until he got himself right. Also not having Wines and wanting to put the kids in their meant his role was important. Worth noting that not only did he drop off as the season progressed, he has been pushed back to a more forward role this year is telling.

In any event, it’s much more clear about Oliver’s role compared to Dangers role. At best we are guessing about extra mid time minutes, there hasn’t been anything other than our speculation (happy to be wrong on this!) that suggests he will fill the Kelly void.

Oliver had double shoulder surgery before last season. That, plus his age and role suggest he will improve this year.

If you also look at both teams, I also think that the most likely result is that Melbourne can improve, whereas I think Geelong might go backwards.

So, Oliver for me!

Derek

I have both

I’m super keen on Danger improving 5-10 points from last year, because he took the biggest hit from TKelly

Kelly gone, helps Danger

He still has one more year at the Uber premium level

COREYSC

Agreed Derek, I have both as well and I’m bullish on Danger going back to his super man best and Oliver will go from strength to strength!

TRIGGA_HAPPY

Not picking either until they.have played Alabama. <img draggable="false" role="img" class="emoji" alt="🙊" src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/12.0.0-1/svg/1f64a.svg"&gt;

Dann

Changing between Oliver & J.Kelly daily.

The Ranger

Oliver by a nose for me but that DeBoer tag is still making me twitchy.
Can I start a mid-pricer and jump from said mid-pricer to Oliver in Rd 5? Prob not but it's tempting me.
I"ll be watching Danger in the March to see if he's getting more mid time with no Kelly there.

Jorg Ancrath

Im not picking Danger to start with. Still good for circa 115, im sure, just think others on the rise.

TRIGGA_HAPPY

Good one capt some food for thought there.

Reckon I am going young/in their prime.esp in .the mids.

Dann

Danger started the season under an injury cloud, played injured during the season & had some of his mid time taken by Kelly & by Geelong needing him forward (a role that he didn’t actually play that well), Esava is another year older & now there’s a genuine back up forward on the list in Jenkins, Paddy is primed to push back past a 120 average in my opinion.

Patch

This is a helluva lot of food for thought, Captain. I need to go for a walk

Rabbits16

hahah agreed!

Derek

I love the article and the info.

I think I need a bigger sample size.

Info easy to get

What other names can I use for comparison? Swann, Cotchin, SMitchell, Lewis, Judd ???

Captain_Risky

Thanks, I didn't think of some of these older names but a good suggestion..

Cothin peaked at age 22 (116.3) and was good from 21 to 27.

Swan peaked at 25 and at 27 was also a good year. Peak scoring between 24 and 28.
20 -78.1, 21 -99.4, 22-100.9, 23-102, 24- 123.2, 25-126.9. 26-122, 27-126.2, 28-117.3, 29-86.4, 30-105.9

Judd peaked at 23. Peak scoring 22-28
22 -114.5, 23-131.8, 24-106.4, 25-110, 26-111, 27-118, 28-115, 29-104, 30-99.1, 31-90.6, 32-71

Both Judd and Swan dropped off quite a bit at age 29, Cothin 28

Derek

Numbers are hard to argue against.

Maybe Dangerfield is past his best, and we are only dreaming if we think he can improve from last year.

For me it’s only the Tim Kelly factor that is keeping me interested in him.

derek

it seems like past 28 the scores are over the cliff

Hodge had one good year in 2015 as an exception, but even the years after 28 for him are all in decline (except for 2015)

It is the same story for nearly every midfielder. Different story for defenders

The other story is the number of games played in a season. Up to 29 most of the ubers manage 20-22 games, after that is a serious fall away.

This is very interesting…..

very revealing

KeenButClueless

My emphasis this year has been on prime age bracket and durability. It has made for an interesting and scary team.

In the mids, I feel good about Macrae, Neale, Dunkley and Oliver. The 5th one is driving me crazy! I have ruled o. ut Fyfe and Danger on age. Cripps is in the right age zone, but some doubts about his durability and role in 2020 makes me question him. Bont ticks a lot of boxes, but I can’t bring myself to have 3 Bullies. J Kelly not durable. Merrett is a maybe, and perhaps T Kelly. Treloar has a horrible bye, and I feel he may have peaked, whilst others have upside.

In the forward line, age and declining output rules out D Martin for me. Whitfield has perplexed me all preseason. Right age, but durability is a big issue. Walters had a one off year that probably won’t be repeated. Heeney is right in the zone, even without a role change. So, Heeney at F1. Just feels so light, but by the criteria I set for myself, maybe the right choice. Also by the same criteria, Petracca at F2. Now I am really doubting myself, and it’s hard to stay this course.

For the defenders, age and durability rules out Hurn and Houli I am unsure about Williams. I really liked Stewart until his preseason injury. Ryan interests me, but not sure given the injuries to Hamling and Pearce. Liking Houston, even if it smells like a trap. Lloyd ticks age and durability, but his dip late 2019 makes him feel a little overpriced.

My gut feel is my mid choices stand up. But Whitfield and to a lesser degree Lloyd will perplex me all the way until season start and feel like they are the decisions that will define my season.

Loving the analysis Captain. Will definitely keep me thinking right up to the Go Button.

derek

what do you think of Trelor and Coniglio. Are they in the top tier?

KeenButClueless

Treloar probably is – just. Other than the double hammy injury in 2018, he’s a 20-21 game player. So reliable. At 27, what is his ceiling? Probably at his peak so I think 110-115. That’s top tier. He’s certainly on the edge for me. He’s in the conversation for sure. Hate his bye.

Coniglio probably less so. Hasn’t really demonstrated the capacity to go 110+ consistently. His reliability and durability is at the bottom end. At a similar price, I would prefer Taranto who seems on the up and seems more durable.

Captain_Risky

I'm looking at set and forget rucks and 3 fully priced mids ( Capt/ VC options, Durable,young, good injury history), after that budget constraints start kicking in and I look for those that are a bit more value so I won't be selecting Dangerfield or Fyfe as well. Not that they won't be top 8 selections, just that I think I need to stretch the dollars further and hopefully I can pick them up cheaper during the season. M4 & M5 are proving tough. At the moment it's Oliver & TKelly as they will be around top 10 and a bit better value.

Not sure about Whitfield yet, likely number 1 fwd but not great value, same with Lloyd in Def, won't be starting him.

Derek

I tried that last year, started with Dusty, Merret and MCrouch at M3, M4 and M5

The money I saved by not having Fyfe, Neale and McCrae, got my Mundy at F4

The points I missed out on stuffed my season.

I don’t even want to talk about Trading Mundy out after week 2.

I’m looking at only 12 Uber premiums instead of 13, but paying the price!

Captain_Risky

I wouldn't be taking risks like that in the Mids, that would ruin your season!
Save the risks for the Fwds /Def lines. How much value we need to find depends on the availability of decent rookies which we will find out over the next 3 weeks!
I think not taking Lloyd / Williams for example but having Stewart/Laird/Sicily types isn't too much risk. Saving just a small amount of money, a bit more value but still getting likely top 6/8 players.
Mind you I had a crap season last year.. this year I will be paying the price in the rucks.

Captain_Risky

Thanks, something to think about at least- Not sure why I missed Laird, he's in my notes- age 26.

Browncow

Great piece Captain! Thinking of shelving Danger like a few others now. Maybe Cripps still trending up.

Whitey

Ceglar at F3 anyone? Ruck cover, No. 1 ruck probably at the hawks? What do we think, can he average above 85?

Cheers everyone.

KeenButClueless

Yes Whitey. I am there! I think the role change will make him an acceptable F6 by season end, and useful cover for the season. I see him as a keeper.

johnno2908

I currently have him at F3. Not sure how I feel about it…. But I can definitely see him being a keeper.

Russty_

I'll be keeping an eye on him in the Marsh series Whitey..just to see how confident he looks in the number 1 position and how much if any Patton or Big Boy pinch hit, cheers man.

DavidC

Do you trust Clarko to keep him as the number 1 ruck for the whole season? If he reverts back to McEvoy rucking then Ceglar will be obsolete.

Derek

He isn’t good enough

Shake n bake

Paul l got an email for your Guns & Rookies league l was in last year. Tried to just enter but is full. If a spot opens up let me know I’ll jump in.

TRIGGA_HAPPY

Dittto

Korza

Kelly>Parfitt adios Danger

The Ranger

Great article Captain, nice one.

Jess

Can someone please sell Henry to me?

He is in nearly every team, but I'm not quite sold on him.

With higher priced rookies, the risk is always there that they will score a few 30s which would severely hinder their cash cow growth. But most of all, he costs a lot, and there is a big chance that we will find a few other def rookies to play on field (eg. Gould and Rivers) who could get the job done. I'd prefer to save the money at this point, but i guess the marsh series will shed some light.

ThatsGoldJerry

I assume you mean Liam Henry ? Supercoach says he is owned by 7%

Russty_

And he's a Mid/Fwd..thinking Jess maybe meant someone else?

Derek

Means Heeney

Russty_

Nah it was Young apparently

TommyC99

Really intruging stuff. Danger has been locked in my team since it opened but this is food for thought. Deciding between Danger, Treloar, JKelly and Yeo for my last mid spot. Who would you guys pick?

Russty_

If I was considering Yeo Tommy, I reckon I'd go T.Kelly instead, he could outscore Yeo-yo this year and is a fair bit cheaper.
Reckon Danger could start slowing down this year, J.Kelly risky injury-wise, and Treloar heart attack inducing with his scoring habits.

dontblushbaby

Ned McHenry perhaps ?

Russty_

I just did my team for the 236462th time and have no money left, not even 1 dollar lol, team still looks dodgy as hell though, love pre-season.

Russty_

I think I'm just being silly mate…need to step away for awhile and make decisions after Marsh series to see who's injured, slow or not for starters, some of our locks now could be complete busts by then, but guns n rooks is a good foundation to start from 🙂

Russty_

True dat my friend, hopefully Doch will return to gun status and Smith and Steven score ok, thinking I might avoid Steven though if possible.

Derek

What your thoughts on Lipinski at F3

Russty_

Hi Derek, could be a good call if he gets the midfield time he's been training for, not sure how many games out of his 13 games last year were in the midfield but there was some inconsistency there, (3 x 50's in a row).
Seems like a strapping kid though with a real will to succeed, for me, a bit too pricey for the risk of starting someone not really yet established.
Tough year to pick the right forwards though, reckon we could end up having to swap two or more of them out if some of those cheaper options don't work out.

Derek

I think he will be close to #4 midfielder at doggies.

Libba will miss early games

If he gets reasonable time in guts, he should be 85+

Close call and worth a look. Devon ahead of him

Russty_

He does look a likely type though, like a cross between Macrae and Dunkley to look at.

Holty01

He is in my side Derek. Been there for 3 weeks now. Like him a lot

derek

with no Libba to start, i see him being the next Dunkley

Holty01

Dunkley, big call but we only need him to average 90 for him to be a potential keeper. I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages 95 this season.

TRIGGA_HAPPY

Call me crazy but still really like the phantom menace with a couple of addendums.

I think Houston after kennys comments has to come in for Clarke so bonar to Georgie boy.

Then Titch to dunk/Cripps.

Not the craziest looking team.

Will have a look during marsh at the rooks but phantom menace looking very good …

Russty_

Hey bud, I didn't mind your phantom menace side, apart from a few you mentioned Clark and Boner, I think Titch might be good to go fingers crossed, remember the golden rule mate, avoid most if not all Saints lol..Max King should play early though.
Robbo could struggle for a spot.

PizzaSafety

This is glossing over some points though isn't it?

Pendles had a back injury that nearly ended his career and Selwood has had a huge amount of head knocks and has put his smaller frame through hell throughout his career. If we broaden the scope of players who were stars but declined early we get Chris Judd whose shoulders were completely cooked and Dane Swan who had groin feet and heel issues as well as slipped disc the year he turned 30. Danger doesn't have these issues.

Often players hit a steep decline at that age due to the accumulation of chronic injuries and issues with their bodies.