Community, it’s not often I put pen to paper but my will to hold the greatest secret in Supercoach has waned, a secret left by those who came before us.

Just as the head is heavy that wears the crown, the hand is heavy that holds the bible…the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Football Magazine.

A marvelous, game changing exposé of the very thing that brings us together lays dormant in the pages of this holy scripture.

HUNTING THE NEXT MIDFIELD BEAST

Or as we now dub it thanks to Statty Matty’s ability to turn numbers into fully-functioning databases…

THE B.E.A.S.T CALCULATOR

(Bias-free Extraction of Accurate Statistical Truths)

How do we successfully hunt the beast? First we must observe, just as our ancestors did.

My Great-Great-Great Grandfather didn’t just walk up to the mighty Tyrannosaurus Rex and bonk it on the head the first time he saw it, he observed it over many years.

Watching it tear through his friends and family one at a time was horrific, yes. But his observations led to the great discovery of large rocks, sharp sticks and a game plan (later adopted by Ross Lyon) named the pincer manoeuvre .

The sticks and stones may have struck the final blow, but it was observation which brought down the beast.

Fast-forward 75 years and our fore-fathers, the Fore-Fathers of Fantasy Football, would observe once again.

Tracking the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Nathaniel Fyfe, Josh P Kennedy, Lachie Neale, Scott Pendlebury, Tom Rockliff, Rory Sloane and Adam Treloar, those who came before us discovered the 7 shared statistics across each of these beasts’ first 50 games.

Observe.

In 2017 the (then manual) B.E.A.S.T Calculator offered us several sure-fire beasts:

Brad Crouch – Averaged 98.25 in 2017
Matt Crouch – Averaged 112.16 in 2017
Patrick Cripps – Averaged 97.7 (102.9 when healthy) in 2017
Clayton Oliver – Averaged 111.5 in 2017

Oliver was transcendent in his second year, Brad never quite hit the heights, Cripps had an injury affected year but went on to beast like no one before and Matt Crouch delivered in spades.

Of the group, Cripps and Oliver looked the most likely to succeed.

What are we looking for in the B.E.A.S.T Calculator?

Green lights.

Patrick Cripps…

and Clayton Oliver…

had plenty of green lights.

While the culmination of all of the above stats is what truly makes a man a beast, the indicators that I look at first are SC Points and TOG%.

Normally they can tell most of the tale on their own.

Prior to 2017 Oliver had only played 13 games (and started the year at just $382,500!) but his average of 90 and TOG% of just 68 (in games 11-13) combined with the stats you can see in games 1-10 were clear indicators that the kid was in fact already a beast.

By the end of the year he was the fourth ranked player in Supercoach and worth $565K!

The Calculator doesn’t lie.

Who does the B.E.A.S.T Calculator like in 2020?

James Worpel – $527,000 – MID

By far the most exciting beast candidate for me this year.

Yes, Tom Mitchell is coming back, but I think that only propels the Worpedo further into beasthood.

Players like Ricky Henderson, James Cousins and Liam Shiels are not going to stand in this mans way.

It’ll be the big three in 2020: Titch – Worpedo – JOM

Worp has ticked more green boxes than almost anyone before him and I can realistically see a 110 average from this man in 2020, he averaged 115.7 across his last 7 games!

Tim Kelly – $561,800 – MID

He has taken the AFL by storm over the last two years and the B.E.A.S.T Calculator loves him again.

The question mark will of course be how that West Coast midfield operates, but as always, good players don’t have their points stolen by other good players, they steal bad players’ points.

Am I as bullish on Kelly as Worpel? No. Am I still bullish on him? THE CALCULATOR DOESN’T LIE!

His indicators sit somewhere between 2017 Matt and Brad Crouch, I expect an average of 106+.

Cam Ellis-Yolmen – $507,200 – MID

I do not expect anyone to pick CEY this year.

Even if his TOG% jumps above 80 he’s still projected to average a tad under the 103-107 range he needs to be considered a beast.

But I do think Brisbane has brought him in for a reason and I do expect him to play in the guts, a solid late draft option perhaps?

I’ll be watching him in the preseason because the Calculator tells me to.

Who DOESN’T the B.E.A.S.T Calculator like this year?

Below you’ll see a couple of popular breakout selections that the Calculator hates.

ONE LIGHT DAMO!
I do not see this man imposing himself on the Gold Coast in 2020
I actually really like Rayner and think his stats so far are unrepresentative of what he can bring to the table in the future
He has tempted me too many times…

The Next Clayton Oliver?

Sam Walsh – $471,900 – MID

I wish with all of my heart that Sam Walsh lit up a couple more green lights, but he doesn’t.

He will be a perennial stud for many years to come, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be a Supercoach beast.

He’ll even have a year where he goes 110+ but it won’t be 2020.

Based on this small sample size, he’s trending towards the dreaded ‘second year blues’, but I’ll watch him during the Marsh Series…maybe I’ll even disobey the Calculator?

Alright community! Your turn, who do you want to run through the B.E.A.S.T Calculator? Let me know below and we’ll do a follow-up piece!


66 Comments

Patch · 13/02/2020 at 22:04

I hate selecting Hawthorn players.
I hate disparaging the beast calculator even more.

brb slotting James Worpel into M5

    Lekdog · 13/02/2020 at 22:05

    This is the way

    Russty_ · 14/02/2020 at 02:00

    Worpedo certainly was a beast in the run home last season, hoping he can continue to become an uber premo.

Lekdog · 13/02/2020 at 22:15

PS – He's not in here but Charlie Constable…I like him

    JohnDJ59 · 15/02/2020 at 20:11

    They just need to give him some games.

Keeper27 · 13/02/2020 at 22:47

Houston? Parish? Lyons

    Russty_ · 14/02/2020 at 01:59

    I reckon those 3 might be slight improvers, not on the cusp of beasthood.

CuriousGeorge · 13/02/2020 at 23:08

Hmmm wondering why you didn't mention what the 'Beast Calculator' said for 2018 and 2019?
Maybe 2017 is the only year that supports the theory and the more recent years blow it out the window?

    FozDaddy · 13/02/2020 at 23:15

    Purely because 2017 gives us a sample size of 50+ games, the sample size is too small off just one or two seasons. Premiums typically don’t break out until their third or fourth season; rarely does it happen in one year.

      Lekdog · 14/02/2020 at 09:34

      Also the magazine didn't exist in 2018 or 2019 so no one wrote the article

        CuriousGeorge · 14/02/2020 at 10:37

        Nah now you're sounding like Scotty Morrison.
        Surely if there is a database of players from Slatty the same formula that identified Oliver and Cripps in 2017 and was used to identify Worpel in 2020 can be applied to 2018 and 2019.
        Without applying the formula to 18,19 it looks like you're omitting data that debunks the theory, or if you haven't applied the formula 18,19 data maybe you should so that you can support the theory.
        Real marketing isn't smoke an mirrors its the collection and presentation of facts in a manner that identifies a logical choice

          Lekdog · 14/02/2020 at 11:11

          The beauty of the website is that I can do whatever I want haha

          PS punch me in the face if I'm ever like Scotty

            CuriousGeorge · 14/02/2020 at 19:16

            Wow! You think that the Australian laws governing publishing don't apply to you.
            Might wanna punch yourself in the face mate, thats the most Scott Morrison comment I've heard all week. 🙂

              Lekdog · 15/02/2020 at 14:26

              George, I'm wondering why you have so many user names on this site? We know you're the great 00Ps, just wondering why you're trying to annoy me?

                CuriousGeorge · 15/02/2020 at 17:26

                So you also think that Australians don't share houses with a common broadband connection. You're even more Morrison than Morrison mate.
                I asked a reasonable question to verify the legitimacy of a calculator/tool that you're promoting but instead of answering that question you chose to treat me like a fool and then backed that up by accusing me of being a multiple personality oops is 5 years older than I am and fat. 00ps's name is David mine is George. You're not a decent person

                  Mighty Chungus · 15/02/2020 at 19:05

                  He called you the 'GREAT' 00Ps George! Maybe it's his way of givin' you a compliment!?

                  Just blindly follow the advice like a Les Whinen… It makes picking your time so much easier ;D

                CuriousGeorge · 16/02/2020 at 13:27

                Well done buddy you annoyed Dave enough to make him blackban this site.
                Now, how about posting some accurate, informative, original material that will help me get an edge over him in supercoach so I can kick his chubby butt and get a rent reduction.

                  Lekdog · 17/02/2020 at 11:24

                  Let's agree to disagree because I can see 6 different emails and accounts all on your ip, most of which seem to be argumentative.

                  if there are in fact 6 people living in your house and reading the site, hooray, glad to have you.

                  Bu note that we don't omit data on purpose, you're welcome to find any player who had played less than 50 games in 2018 and 2019 and work out the maths if they've lit up any green lights. 🙂

                  I'll even publish the results if they're interesting!

              NDD · 16/02/2020 at 10:59

              That's it in a nutshell. WOW

      CuriousGeorge · 14/02/2020 at 10:21

      ? Doesn't make sense Foz. There were just as many players who'd played 50 games in 2018 and 2019 as there are in 2020 and were in 2017.

    Philly · 15/02/2020 at 00:40

    Shhhhhh…last year was Anthony Miles and the year before was Powell-Pepper but we are trying to keep that quiet. Who is this curious George? Can we ban him? He is exposing us as frauds?!?!?!

Dann · 13/02/2020 at 23:41

I don’t get the Greenwood hate, plenty of green in there, stuck behind the Crouchs, Sloane, need to see the right role in pre-season but just rule him out now.

    Lekdog · 14/02/2020 at 09:37

    Games 41-51 don't indicate beasthood, he might be able to pump out a 90 average, which is ok.

    I personally don't think he actually plays a heap in the midfield at Gold Coast, will be a pressure mid/fwd imo.

    Anderson and Rowell go into the guts, doesn't leave a heap of room for Hugh.

    Mighty Chungus · 15/02/2020 at 19:08

    I wish I had some green stuck behind my crouchs… all I've got is dog hair and a butter menthol

Captain_Risky · 14/02/2020 at 09:03

Hunter Clark, Tim Taranto & Hugh McCluggage are the ones I like. Worpel is in and out of my side, highly tempting..

    Lekdog · 14/02/2020 at 09:37

    I'm personally not big on Clark or Taranto for 2020. McCluggage I like.

      Rabbits16 · 16/02/2020 at 15:04

      mcluggage is an interesting one indeed.

Maverick · 14/02/2020 at 13:14

Have had worpel, Taranto & TKelly in and out of M5 for weeks. seeing this only makes the case for worpel stronger hmm…………. a lot of people have been saying titch back will hurt the worpedo but I think it’ll take the focus off him & he will only improve

    Lekdog · 14/02/2020 at 13:31

    I agree Mav!

    Raw Tiger · 15/02/2020 at 20:15

    I’m with you too .. TItch distributes .. I’m thinking Worpel will be the main recipient of his clearances

    Rabbits16 · 16/02/2020 at 15:05

    how do we all t hink Titch will go after a year. wait and see or lock and load!/ hes been in and out more times than a root

      Russty_ · 16/02/2020 at 18:25

      Hi Rabbits, after his performance in the scratch match I'm thinking he might be back!…I've read all kinds of things too about how guys who break legs are never the same but medichal technology is more advanced these days and maybe the healing process is improved from days past, apparently he got heaps of the pill for the time he was on.

COREYSC · 14/02/2020 at 13:17

It would be fascinating to see how Dan Houston’s numbers match up in the beast calculator because there is a lot of hype around his role change and potential increased output! One to watch in the Marsh games for sure…….

    Lekdog · 14/02/2020 at 13:31

    Hard one because he hasn't played a heap in there, I'll run him through it tonight

      COREYSC · 14/02/2020 at 15:13

      Cheers mate, I reckon he’s worth a look but yeah only a few games in there last year where he averaged 95 in the midfield. After a full pre-season maybe he can get above 100?

The Ranger · 14/02/2020 at 15:14

Hopper?
I don't think he's managed a full preseason yet and his numbers haven't always been great but I think he has the potential to jump up a fair bit if GWS can keep all of Cogs, Kelly, Ward and Taranto on the park at the same time.

BrownlowBoy · 14/02/2020 at 15:20

Rowbottom one I can see as a potential breakout.

Tibor · 14/02/2020 at 16:45

Oliver came off a start price of $380k. Most of the players green lighted here the horse has bolted with big 500+ prices. Maybe Oliver is a. It of a once off he only had 13 games in debut season and was held back a bit, typical of Paul Roos, for the benefit of long term development. Walsh basically was expected to be a top line performer from game one. As great as he was it will be interesting to see how he backs up. Opposition will go to work on him

    Lekdog · 14/02/2020 at 17:04

    Oliver certainly was one of a kind, I'll take a look at players with less than 30 games played and see if anyone lights up

      Tibor · 15/02/2020 at 17:20

      Please do finding a player in that 380 to 400 range who rises to where Oliver did is season defining. Remember back when it happened all the talk was when to unload Oliver and cash in. Very few actually stuck fat and finished the year with him

        JohnDJ59 · 15/02/2020 at 20:07

        I had Oliver from the start in 2017 as my M6, he was the reason for my best ever season. I told everyone in my leagues to get on him at the start, but only a few did, thinking I was looking through my red and blue vision.

Satsy · 14/02/2020 at 17:26

Here are a few left field selections for the beast calc
Quinton Narkle
Jordan Dawson
Bailey Smith
Will Brodie
Sydney Stack

    Rabbits16 · 16/02/2020 at 15:06

    dawson and stack would be interesting to see for sure

      Russty_ · 16/02/2020 at 19:08

      Someone said to me the other day, you'd be picking them as keepers though at that price and I think that's true, unless they were considered stepping stones but unless they were both delivering good regular scores you might want to get rid of them if they don't turn out to be top 6.

Shake n bake · 14/02/2020 at 19:59

Just want to wish Beamsy well. I really think he has some deep issues l only hope he sorts out. Just retired good luck Beams 17

    Russty_ · 14/02/2020 at 20:50

    That's a shame Shake, I thought Beamsy had a few more years in him, glad he's ok after his car accident.

    BrownlowBoy · 14/02/2020 at 22:35

    Unfortunately he's in a lot of trouble off field. A LOT.

    TRIGGA_HAPPY · 15/02/2020 at 20:34

    Yeah best of luck beamsy.

    Need to conquer your demons.

    It does now create a spot in the midfield.
    Who gets it Shake?

    One of the young rooks or my pick in Seir?

    If seir does get a full tine gig Im half tempted to spend an extra $30k and upgrade rowell to sier.

    An untried rookie (though by all accounts a damn good one) in a new team or a guy who has been there done that.

    Hmmmm insert thinking music ….. <img draggable="false" role="img" class="emoji" alt="🤔" src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/12.0.0-1/svg/1f914.svg"&gt;

      Shake n bake · 16/02/2020 at 07:56

      Definitely Sier if he puts he’s head down and works hard. Wills is a standout so far looking good pre season. Brown will go thou there to just needs to play more consistently to offen goes missing. De goey when fit will definitely play more midfield this year

Jorg Ancrath · 14/02/2020 at 21:11

Worps price seems awkward. Probably improves to 105 ish ave. But for not much more i can have Elliot Yeo who defintely averages that, maybe going 110+ with less attention.

Kimbo · 14/02/2020 at 22:13

I have 5 sports left in a league for West Australian players code 156047.

    Nuggety · 15/02/2020 at 12:00

    Jumped in mate 👌

    Colin · 15/02/2020 at 17:01

    Just joined Kimbo, Colin from Atwell

      Kimbo · 16/02/2020 at 19:32

      Ok thanks league now full.

Jake · 15/02/2020 at 08:13

Oliver florent to blossom?

dontblushbaby · 15/02/2020 at 10:57

Do Bomber supporters see J.Townsend in your starting 22 ? I see him is what you need in your Midfield ,We will find out in the Com Cup but at 233k FWD he could be massive value imo , thoughts please ?

    Philly · 15/02/2020 at 17:58

    Don's already needed a big bodied mid and with Myers retiring they need it even more, so I do see him or Hibberd (possibly both) as getting some really good midfield minutes.

    Having said that I think Heppell, Shiel & Merrett will get the majority of CBAs and then there's Smith to go in there to, so I do believe Townsend will more likely be a forward than can play midfield, rather than a permanent mid.

    Of course Merrett could be pushed out to a wing to accommodate a bigger body inside so we'll have to wait and see

Pieman · 16/02/2020 at 11:55

Wondering how Sicily, treloar, cunnington and parish hold up with this data. Bringing them all in for the first time this year and questioning if I should

    Pieman · 16/02/2020 at 11:57

    Know sicily isn't a mid but I think he would still score half decent with the beast calculator

      Tibor · 16/02/2020 at 12:30

      Hes a really interesting one pieman. In the past just far too much flog factor but seems to have left that behind….hopefully. So much ability and what a beautiful kick. That worries me because the temptation is always there for Hawthorn to play him a a key forward where is stats and sc score take a hit..

Rabbits16 · 16/02/2020 at 15:08

with Kelly out of Geelong….. Quinton Narkle? only played the 3 games and a weird price but $396,600. What is his role going forward??

pardonthe_pun · 16/02/2020 at 17:18

Hey boys, can you please check out the below?

Darcy MacPherson
Lipinski
Jaidyn Stephensn
Parftt
Gresham
Sier

Cheers

Moustachio · 16/02/2020 at 19:27

Thought Blakely featured in this analysis a couple years back? Now the calculator hates him…

    Russty_ · 17/02/2020 at 04:22

    That's because he turned out way crapper than expected, not to say he couldn't still come good or improve, but shows how wrong predictions can be.

    Lekdog · 17/02/2020 at 11:04

    He was analysed and looked like he was a chance to light up but was never an assured thing, similar to Blake Acres. They weren't as locked as Oliver and the Crouch's.

Lekdog · 17/02/2020 at 12:04

Alright gang, going to try and get another post up with all of your suggested players.

Non-mids will be hard because we don't have the baseline data needed yet, that might be a job for next season…

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