Community, it’s not often I put pen to paper but my will to hold the greatest secret in Supercoach has waned, a secret left by those who came before us.
Just as the head is heavy that wears the crown, the hand is heavy that holds the bible…the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Football Magazine.
A marvelous, game changing exposé of the very thing that brings us together lays dormant in the pages of this holy scripture.
HUNTING THE NEXT MIDFIELD BEAST
Or as we now dub it thanks to Statty Matty’s ability to turn numbers into fully-functioning databases…
THE B.E.A.S.T CALCULATOR
(Bias-free Extraction of Accurate Statistical Truths)
How do we successfully hunt the beast? First we must observe, just as our ancestors did.
My Great-Great-Great Grandfather didn’t just walk up to the mighty Tyrannosaurus Rex and bonk it on the head the first time he saw it, he observed it over many years.
Watching it tear through his friends and family one at a time was horrific, yes. But his observations led to the great discovery of large rocks, sharp sticks and a game plan (later adopted by Ross Lyon) named the pincer manoeuvre .
The sticks and stones may have struck the final blow, but it was observation which brought down the beast.
Fast-forward 75 years and our fore-fathers, the Fore-Fathers of Fantasy Football, would observe once again.
Tracking the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Nathaniel Fyfe, Josh P Kennedy, Lachie Neale, Scott Pendlebury, Tom Rockliff, Rory Sloane and Adam Treloar, those who came before us discovered the 7 shared statistics across each of these beasts’ first 50 games.
In 2017 the (then manual) B.E.A.S.T Calculator offered us several sure-fire beasts:
Brad Crouch – Averaged 98.25 in 2017
Matt Crouch – Averaged 112.16 in 2017
Patrick Cripps – Averaged 97.7 (102.9 when healthy) in 2017
Clayton Oliver – Averaged 111.5 in 2017
Oliver was transcendent in his second year, Brad never quite hit the heights, Cripps had an injury affected year but went on to beast like no one before and Matt Crouch delivered in spades.
Of the group, Cripps and Oliver looked the most likely to succeed.
What are we looking for in the B.E.A.S.T Calculator?
and Clayton Oliver…
had plenty of green lights.
While the culmination of all of the above stats is what truly makes a man a beast, the indicators that I look at first are SC Points and TOG%.
Normally they can tell most of the tale on their own.
Prior to 2017 Oliver had only played 13 games (and started the year at just $382,500!) but his average of 90 and TOG% of just 68 (in games 11-13) combined with the stats you can see in games 1-10 were clear indicators that the kid was in fact already a beast.
By the end of the year he was the fourth ranked player in Supercoach and worth $565K!
The Calculator doesn’t lie.
Who does the B.E.A.S.T Calculator like in 2020?
James Worpel – $527,000 – MID
By far the most exciting beast candidate for me this year.
Yes, Tom Mitchell is coming back, but I think that only propels the Worpedo further into beasthood.
Players like Ricky Henderson, James Cousins and Liam Shiels are not going to stand in this mans way.
It’ll be the big three in 2020: Titch – Worpedo – JOM
Worp has ticked more green boxes than almost anyone before him and I can realistically see a 110 average from this man in 2020, he averaged 115.7 across his last 7 games!
Tim Kelly – $561,800 – MID
He has taken the AFL by storm over the last two years and the B.E.A.S.T Calculator loves him again.
The question mark will of course be how that West Coast midfield operates, but as always, good players don’t have their points stolen by other good players, they steal bad players’ points.
Am I as bullish on Kelly as Worpel? No. Am I still bullish on him? THE CALCULATOR DOESN’T LIE!
His indicators sit somewhere between 2017 Matt and Brad Crouch, I expect an average of 106+.
Cam Ellis-Yolmen – $507,200 – MID
I do not expect anyone to pick CEY this year.
Even if his TOG% jumps above 80 he’s still projected to average a tad under the 103-107 range he needs to be considered a beast.
But I do think Brisbane has brought him in for a reason and I do expect him to play in the guts, a solid late draft option perhaps?
I’ll be watching him in the preseason because the Calculator tells me to.
Who DOESN’T the B.E.A.S.T Calculator like this year?
Below you’ll see a couple of popular breakout selections that the Calculator hates.
The Next Clayton Oliver?
Sam Walsh – $471,900 – MID
I wish with all of my heart that Sam Walsh lit up a couple more green lights, but he doesn’t.
He will be a perennial stud for many years to come, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be a Supercoach beast.
He’ll even have a year where he goes 110+ but it won’t be 2020.
Based on this small sample size, he’s trending towards the dreaded ‘second year blues’, but I’ll watch him during the Marsh Series…maybe I’ll even disobey the Calculator?
Alright community! Your turn, who do you want to run through the B.E.A.S.T Calculator? Let me know below and we’ll do a follow-up piece!