Finding Fallen Premos Part 2
Hello everyone and welcome to Part 2 of our search for the potential fallen premiums. Last week we did some experimenting with Rory Laird, Brody Grundy and Max Gawn, this week we’ll be putting Lachie Whitfield, Dusty Martin and Patrick Cripps under the microscope to see what we can find.
For those of you who missed it, Part 1 can be found here https://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2020/01/29/finding-fallen-premos/
With all that out of the way, lets go and see what we can see, starting with Lachie Whitfield.
Lachie Whitfields scoring breakdown over the last 3 years does provide a good example of the growth of him as a player, with an increasing presence in 2018, with a hot finish that set him up superbly for his fantastic 2019 season. Ever since that hot end to 2018 he has stayed fairly consistent in his averages and hasn’t fallen below 100SCPoints since.
That leads to his price breakdown, which has generally stayed consistent through the years. He did have a slight fall in late 2019, but still didn’t fall below the $500K mark at all. The difference this year will be his starting price of $604,100, which will potentially put his early Breakeven in the 120 range. Averaging above 120SCPoints is entirely possible for Whitfield (he averaged 129.2 SCPoints over his first 4 last year), but all it will take is one poor scoring game early for him to lose a bit of price. That is not a situation unique to Whitfield though, that’s just the nature of the uber-premo priced players, but it is something to consider.
Even through his development as a player, Whitfield has stayed consistent in his points per $ value, providing range between $4700-$5100 for the majority of last year. That means even if you want to spend the big $ on him to start with you should still get good bang for your buck.
Next we’ll take a look at Dusty Martin.
Now this does provide something we would look for if we’re searching for fallen premiums. There are two periods that jump out to us, which is Round 9-16 in 2018 and Rounds 1-8 in 2019. Two periods where he’s had a significant downturn in form, which if we then go look at his price breakdown.
There we can see two big dips, 2018 he went from $656K down to a season low of $478K in Round 13, 2019 he started at $563K and fell to $488K by Round 8. The fantastic thing about this though is he bounced back both times, which is exactly what we want to happen if we picked him up as a fallen premo. If we go back and look at his price breakdown, we can see a pattern of Martin getting into a groove at the end of the year, the last 3 years his best scoring period has been in the Round 17-23 period, Dusty getting warmed up for some finals footy!
Over to his price breakdown
Dusty did have some periods where he was providing less than idea value for money last year, often hovering around the $5300-$5500 range, thanks to 9 sub 100 scores in his first 15 games, but he finished off strong when he scores improved to end the year.
Finally this week we’ll take a quick gander at Patrick Cripps
Generally, Cripps has been a bit up and down in his scoring breakdown, which can be attributed to a few things, both of which make him difficult to predict. Firstly, he can belt up some HUGE scores if he gets going, 194SCPoints in Round 12 last year, 187 in Round 14 of 2018 as examples. On the other side, he’s also prone to the odd stinker, last year for example he had scores of 66, 89 and 78 in his Round 9-16 period.
Looking at his price breakdown, the problem becomes those big scores he can provide. Looking at him last year, he rose in price, but then the above slow period saw him drop to a season low of $542K by Round 11. He was probably looking like he was going to be cheap as chips in a few weeks, then he produced that 194 SCPoints as above, which immediately stabilized his price and sent his price moving back on up. The point is Cripps is so good as a Supercoach player that his ability to score will mean he can stop a price skid in its tracks with one good game, making him difficult to predict when his basement is. He has (and likely will) fall in price at some point due to one of those quiet games he occasionally has, the hard part is just predicting how low will he fall from it.
As for his points per $ breakdown, Cripps provides that in spades, spending from Round 8 last year around the $4700-$4900 range, so invest your money in some Cripps stock and you should be pleased with the returns!
That’ll be it for us this week, but we’ll be back again for one final time as we continue our search to identify some potential fallen premo picks for 2020! As always, if you have any comments or feedback you can hit me up on the Twitter machine @BarronVonCrow.