Player preview – Tom Lynch

Published by Kev on

Games in 2019: 22
Average in 2019: 71.5 (75.8 inc finals)
Goals in 2019: 54.30 (63.31 inc finals)
Price in 2020: $388,800

With the shocking news that Buddy is again facing an interrupted preseason, we, the SuperCoach community, need a new key forward to obsess over. Join me on the journey as I ask: why not Tom Lynch?

Tom Lynch arrived at the Tigers having gone under the knife in July of 2018 to fix a PCL injury that he picked up earlier in the year. He initially tried to manage the injury before eventually being advised by the SUNS “medical board” (a term I use loosely) that surgery would be the best route for him. Tom said this at the time:

“I’ve been doing all I can to rehab the injury without requiring surgery. That has meant I haven’t been able to get out there and train with the team during the week like you normally would.”

For Tom to manage a complete season (plus all three finals matches) in his first season at Tigerland was nothing short of remarkable. When fellow key forward, Jack Riewoldt, went down in round 2 with a wrist injury and then again in his round 6 return with a knee injury, any plans to ease Lynch and his bung knee into the season went out the window. Not only did he need to learn the “Richmond way”, he had to do so on the back of a very limited training program. You can see this in his pre-bye stats

R1-13 
749 points. Average – 57.6
1x 100 score (9x under 70 – two more of exactly 70)
4/13 double figure possession games
4/13 games of 5+ marks

Looking at those stats, you’d be excused for thinking that bloody Kev has got his hand on it again thinking about Richmond blokes (which I do, but that’s besides the point). Once Tom had learned the ropes and started to get some confidence in his body, it’s his post-bye stats that have me excited for what a fit Tom can do in 2020. 

R15-23
826 points. Ave 91.7
6x 100+ scores (1x under 70)
4/9 double figure possession games
5/9 games of 5+ marks

Lynch reported for training in December having avoided any post season surgeries 

“I’m feeling great and I’m in everything at the moment, so it’s nice to be out there at this time of year instead of in the gym and swimming in the pool.”

Also of note is his relationship with Jack Riewoldt. From round 17 onwards they shared the forward 50 with Tom outscoring Jack in 8 of their 10 appearances together.

For SuperCoach, there’s always the key forward red flag hanging over his head, one that owners of Jeremy Cameron in 2019 can attest to as being a painful one. Like with any key forward, there is a going to be a significant gap between his best and worst (as you can see from the 71 point swing from round 22 to round 23) However, with an big game in the opening rounds at a starting price of 388.8k, I can see Tom easily cracking 450-500k early in season. 

The Verdict: Track his preseason closely, if he hits the ground running it’s hard ignore the end of season numbers a fit Tom Lynch was putting up in the second half of the year. With Buddy unexpectedly getting injured during the preseason, something I sure many of us didn’t see coming, a swap to Lynch won’t have you tearing up your side. 

What do you reckon, community? Is Tom Lynch worth a punt in 2020?


31 Comments

Jess · 13/01/2020 at 12:21

Too high of a risk for those 20s, 30s and 40s that will make you pull your hair out. Maybe later in the season to loop

TRIGGA_HAPPY · 13/01/2020 at 15:24

Mate.

5 words.

GET ON THE LYNCH PIN!!!

That is all.

Maverick_ · 13/01/2020 at 15:52

Rounds 1-4 he plays Carlton, Collingwood, St Kilda and Adelaide before he runs into West Coast. Three games at the MCG, with the fourth at Marvel. There’s potential there for him to shoot up to $500k very quickly. Then prior to the bye he has a run of Geelong, Essendon, Sydney and North who he has everychance to grab a hold of those teams and score well too just gotta ride out the odd stinker of 50-60 that he may drop occasionally.

worth keeping an eye on through JLT but saying all that he probably won't be starting in my side I rode the Jeremy Cameron roller coaster last year and i'll be steering clear of KPPs I think

    SC_Kev7 · 13/01/2020 at 22:15

    Oh yeah, KPPs and SuperCoach have a long, sucky history. There’s value there though, Jezza put on 70k in the opening 5 rounds last year. In a dominant side hopefully the stinkers are few and far between. Tigers plenty of Friday/Saturday games too, could become a nice F7 loop

Jess · 13/01/2020 at 19:11

Remember that he averaged around 55 for his first 12 games last year, so he is a risk that can ruin your whole year on his own. He has also only scored over 120 in four games in the last three years.

There are simply better options that dont run the risk of ruining your season

    Derek · 14/01/2020 at 11:25

    There seems a fair reason for the 55.

    New club. Injury preseason.

    I watched his games, he dropped a lot of easy marks in the first few rounds, just needed some match time.

    I think we can ignore most of the first half of season.

    Although, on the flip side, I can’t see how he scored as well as he did to finish season

    Reality it between 80 – 90 average.

    90 I would take for that price!

    DSmith is roughly same price, so I have him at F3 for now, but watching Lynch and Bradshaw closely

    Philly · 16/01/2020 at 14:28

    I agree with Jess. Darling was All-Australian last year and averaged what for the year? 70? 75? When you have Steven and Smith priced cheaper, it's just to big a risk for me

Russty_ · 13/01/2020 at 20:14

This is a tough one for me, unless he fires right out of the blocks…we're probably gonna want to dump his ass if he's dropping turdy low scores. .. therefore wasting a trade.
His pre-season form will make all the difference, I'd like to see some high flying strong marking and goals kicked before I locked him in.

Tyruddanaut · 13/01/2020 at 21:07

In my starting team, but a forward or two has to go.

JR_Damo · 13/01/2020 at 21:42

Love it Kev. I'm not ballsy enough to start any key position player but great write up!

Russty_ · 15/01/2020 at 02:38

Hey guys, wondering if anyone is considering Jordan Dawson as a viable option, he looked to have improved a heck of a lot last season. Does anyone think he could achieve between 95 -100 this season?…cheers.
Also interested in any thoughts on Hanners and Brandon Starcevich for this year.

    dontblushbaby · 15/01/2020 at 12:15

    I have Starcevich on my Mid bench atm, Can't trust Hanners body

    Is anyone got both of J.Steven & D.Smith at F3 & 4 ?, thinking I should I only have 1 ,probs Smith ?

      TRIGGA_HAPPY · 15/01/2020 at 12:59

      Yep

      Russty_ · 15/01/2020 at 15:50

      Yeah I also have both dbb…risky but might be worth the risk.

      The Ranger · 16/01/2020 at 17:02

      Yep I got both at the moment

    derek · 15/01/2020 at 12:37

    Dawson will be playing in defense this year, half back. No Mcveigh should help him, but Lloyd will be the main man.

    he should easy increase his average of 86 from last year. Not that hard to increase at least 4 pts and get to 90+

    only problem is he is already priced at 86. $468k isn't cheap. you are picking him as a premium already

    you can get JJ, Andrews, Docherty, Hurley, Howe for CHEAPER

      Russty_ · 15/01/2020 at 15:49

      Good point Derek and rarely do guys exceed expectations in SC, so I might go with someone a bit more proven.
      I've got Doc already and tried Andrews last season but he seems to have gone backwards since his big hit in the head.
      Cheers mate

        gator59 · 15/01/2020 at 17:27

        About the only good thing Dawson has got going for him is the DPP.. But as Derek said you would have to class him as one of your premo's

          Jess · 15/01/2020 at 18:52

          Dawson one of the very many examples of players better than lynch. He still hasn't come very close to consideration for me. Why is everyone looking to take unnecessary gambles?

            Russty_ · 16/01/2020 at 01:00

            Not looking to take gambles Jess, just floating the idea out there, gotta have a few speculative picks in our squads otherwise it all looks a bit same samey, and could be a bit boring.
            Not saying he will, but Lynch could tear it up this year…it's possible, just not very probable from past performances….don't think I'll be starting him.

SC_Kev7 · 15/01/2020 at 09:25

Fair shout but look at the context behind those stats. He was a young KPF at the worst team in the comp with the young midfield (sans Ablett, but not even he can do it all) kicking it to him. A dominant midfield is the lifeblood of a KPF. At Richmond he is in a top 3 side with better delivery from the mids.

His first half of the year. Off season knee surgery with no preseason. I mentioned that. I reckon that's a reasonable excuse for his slow start at a new club.

He had 94 shots at goal this year (84 if you take away the finals). A mark that he has only bettered once – his 2016 season which as you pointed out was his best. He averaged 91 post bye when he was fit, you can't ignore that.

I'm not saying that he is without risk nor is he a season long keeper. But with options after Whitfield and Dusty up in the air, there is value there until we get a better idea

Pete · 15/01/2020 at 12:23

Are you a Carlton supporter?

    Jess · 15/01/2020 at 18:49

    Im with OOP. If you want a non consistent (think opposite of josh kelly) 85 average max then go with him. We deserve better than that. Take a chance with a rookie, look elsewhere, and be thankful yiu stayed away when he drops a score of 40 and ruins other people's week.

      SC_Kev7 · 15/01/2020 at 22:24

      The idea of these articles is to create discussion. Josh Kelly has averaged 110+ three years in a row, not much else you can say

        nathan · 01/02/2020 at 15:22

        just factor in j Kelly missing 6 – 8 games a year he now ave81 or less. you have to have good benchies for a game missa like him, or fyfe or countless others

Jess · 15/01/2020 at 18:55

I know its early but as a sc addict i am craving more material. If you want me to write some im keen, and im sure a lot of people are. Lets bring this site back to the greatness it once was 🙂

    Lekdog · 17/01/2020 at 09:22

    Feel free to write up an article Jess! Send it through to [email protected]

Jess · 15/01/2020 at 19:09

Anyone give me a list of mature age rookies looking to olay this year? Feel like theres been too much on draftees and not mature age guns

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