SuperCoach Panic Room: Round 18
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Keep those trades handy! We got our guns back in round 17 but it was still a week of ‘what if’. James Sicily proceeded to massively shit the bed after being a popular trade in target and Stephen Coniglio didn’t trouble to scorers before his knee went ping.
As the season winds down it’s inevitable that the SuperCoach tragics among us (read: all of us) begin to look ahead to 2020 and speculate what the statistical overlords at Champion Data will throw us when it comes to those all important DPP’s. We were #blessed this year with a bunch of FWD/MID’s, you’ve probably got 4 or 5 in your forward line right now. Looking at the top 10 forwards on average, we’ll probably have exactly zero of these guys available as DPP’s. Next year should be fun then!
A quick shoutout to community member Samvir, coach of TheSCMessiah. With six weeks to go he’s leading the pack in the JR Community League and ranked 52nd overall. Speaking of rankings, Patch and Lek grabbed a Tom Browne-esque EXCLUSIVE this week in the podcast by interviewing Alex, both the number 1 ranked SuperCoach in the land and ripping good bloke. Barron put Collingwood, Essendon, and Freo under his microscope in the hunt for possible 2020 bargains. Damo got all in, on, and around our captain choices for the week, and the ever brilliant and gorgeous Statty returned with another cheat sheet.
Injury carnage for the Bombers tonight with Hurley, Zac Clarke, and Orazio all nursing various ailments. This has led to a debut for tackling machine Will Snelling (MID – 117.3k). Dyson Heppell is also back into the side. Tom Lynch replaces Tyson Stengle at the Crows.
Port Adelaide are also feeling the injury pinch. Wines, Ebert, and Burton are all forced changes for the Power. Duursma is back in. Richmond are replacing Derek Eggmolesse Smith and Kam McIntosh with Graham and Baker. Hugh Goddard unfortunately picked up an injury in his return to AFL footy for the Blues, he’s being replaced by Jacob Weitering. The Suns have added four new names. I can’t imagine anyone has Suns in their side right now. Jake Stein (DEF – 123.9k) returns and will play his second games at the Giants. Jeremy Howe and Taylor Adams’ return for the Pies has been offset by injuries to Darcy Moore, Jamie Elliot, and Levi Greenwood. The bombshell of the evening was Nat Fyfe is OUT as Freo host Sydney on Saturday night with an infection in his troublesome elbow. Griffin Logue and Brett Bewley come back into the side. Hayden McLean (FWD – 102.4k) will debut for the Swans. Ryley Stoddart (FWD – 136.8k) will make his season debut for Sydney. Some big ins for Brisbane with Luke Hodge, Hipwood, and McCluggage returning to the side. Sam Durdin joins Mason Wood and Shaun Higgins as the ins for North. Paul Ahern has again been dropped.
On Sunday, Brandan Parfitt is the only confirmed out for Geelong v Hawthorn. Jack Gunston has been named for the Hawks and there’s a possible club debut for Darren Minchington (MID – 190.9k). Melbourne also haven’t any confirmed outs, the Wagner bros have been added to the squad alongside Oskar Baker and Tim Smith. Three possible debuts at the Eagles; Francis Watson (DEF – 123.9k), Bailey Williams (RUC/FWD – 117.3k), and Matthew Allen (FWD/MID – 123.9k) are all on the extended bench. Jack Petruccelle is back in favour with Jamie Cripps’ injury. Nic Nat is another to miss with injury. In the final game of the week, St Kilda have confirmed a debut for Doulton Langlands (MID/FWD – 123.9k). Matt Parker could also come back into the side. Rhylee West (MID – 117.3k) has again been named for the Dogs, who look like regaining Caleb Daniel and Tom Liberatore. Dale Morris is also in the squad.
The House of Evil
These rookies come with a free frogurt! (that’s good)
These premiums come with Potassium Benzoate (that’s bad)
Smooth Kevy’s Lock of the Week
Stephen Coniglio is the latest midfield premium to pick up a season ending injury and needs to be replaced. With only a few weeks to go breakevens can get stuffed, so just swap him to whatever top line mid you’re missing. However, if you’re looking to safe a bit of cash there’s a few standout options around the 500k mark:
Tim Taranto (512.1k) – With Coniglio joining Josh Kelly on the sidelines, Taranto will pick up a lot of the slack. 10x 100+ scores so far this year (8x 110+)
Mitch Duncan (502.2k) – Hasn’t got the accolades this year as they’ve gone to Danger and Tim Kelly. A lean patch recently has seen his price plummet, but 9 tons in his first 11 games and an easy run home makes him a pretty safe option
Zac Merrett (497.1k) – Is absurdly cheap. 10 tons for the year (5 over 120) and only two scores under 85. Plays Gold Coast next week where that huge ceiling will get a work out.
Statty gives some more great options this week in his cheat sheet.
Hey Now, You’re a Draftstar
Brisbane are the 16th stingiest side in the comp for opposition rucks and North are about middle of the pack. Stef Martin (12.7k) has averaged 105 over the past month compared to Goldy’s (12.2k) 88, making him the obvious pick.
Oscar McInerney (7.6k) smashed out 83DS last time these two sides met in round 2 on the back of six marks and two goals. Last week North gave up nine marks and two goals to Mitch Brown and seven marks and six goals to Josh Bruce the week before.
Over the past two months North have conceded only one score under 90 to the opposition number 1 back. Daniel Rich (12.1k) is in play but priced a bit too high for my tastes as his ceiling is limited. Alex Witherden (10.7k) has largely disappointed this year but is the kind of player that can take advantage of North in this area. Luke Hodge (9.2k) hasn’t hit three figures this year but could do very well in this matchup. Noah Answerth (MID – 7.5k) also benefits from this.
Brisbane have also given up an average of 115DS in the past 3 weeks. Robbie Tarrant (9.3k) has pulled down 30 marks in three weeks is probably the pick of the bunch. Jamie Macmillan (10.5k) returned last week after 5 weeks out with a calf. Coaches will look at his last 3 scores and look elsewhere, you might be able to nab him at low ownership.
Nothing under 10k really excites me here. Eric Hipwood (8.2k) returns after a week off and is in play for the same reason as McInerney. Lincoln McCarthy’s (10.7k) price hasn’t caught up to his recent form yet. Tippa kicked 4 on the Roos the last week and the Roos have had their problems with small forwards this year. Charlie Cameron (9.8k) is another option for the same reasons. Jy Simpkin (10.7k) and Cam Zurhaar (10k) are priced similarly. Simpkin has excelled in a midfield role but I prefer Zurhaar with Higgins back this week.
If there was ever a slate to load up in the midfield it’s this one. North Melbourne are second and Brisbane are third for conceding points to the oppositions top 1 midfielder, North are also second in conceding to the top 3 (Brisbane are 8th). This is even more pronounced over the past 5 weeks, with both sides in the top 3 for both top 1 and top 3 points conceded to midfielders. Zorko (15.5k), Lyons (14.5k), and Neale (14.4k) all have massive ceilings that can win you a single game slate if they go off. Jack Ziebell (MID – 14.5k) was off last week but has shown a 140+ ceiling on two occasions this year.