SuperCoach Panic Room: Round 16
The bye rounds may be officially over but we still had some round 15 wobbles to remind us all that the SuperCoach Gods are vengeful little S.O.B’s that care not for our post bye rounds rankings charge. Danger, Maxy, and LLLLLLLLloyd all had weeks to forget and we need to consider this a warning folks, our premiums have been running around for almost 4 months. The general soreness starts to kick in and those little niggles start to turn into 1-2 weeks on the sidelines. There’s still potentially eight weeks left to go if you make it to a league grand final, don’t trade unless you need to.
Patch returned from his secret*, illegal** offshore dealings in the Cayman Islands in time for the podcast this week and let me just say thank GOD he is back. Lek smells bad, and Damo wants something but I don’t know what.
*Oh, crap! I shouldn’t have said it was a secret.
Patch and Lek discussed all things good this week in the podcast. Damo’s captain smokey last week, Scott Lycett, went HAM last week and busted out a casual 165SC. Get his picks for this week here. Matty has changed up the cheat sheet this week with some sneaky POD’s that can get you a leg up on the competition.
**Oh, crap! I certainly shouldn’t have said it was illegal.
Plenty happening this week at the selection table. Rocky is back for Port after a 74 week hamstring injury (slight exaggeration, but feels that way). Justin Westhoff and his ruck/forward swing makes a timely return. Sandiballs will play his first game in over a year. Lachie Whitfield is on an extended bunch. Still no Patrick Cripps, but Max Gawn and Patrick Dangerfield have been named and if Sunday teams are kind to us we could have up to six new rookie downgrades available in the coming weeks.
For tonight, Ben McEvoy will be solo rucking after Jono Ceglar was dropped. Pinchy Stratton makes his return after suspension. Jamie Elliot is back after a long injury layoff and popular preseason rookie Isaac Quaynor (DEF – 153.3k) will make his debut.
On Saturday, Essendon continue their bizarre selection choices by dropping Kyle Langford and Josh Begley. Zac Clarke will replace Tom Bellchambers in the ruck. Sydney have chosen not to replace the injured Callum Sinclair with another ruck, instead recalling Harry Cunningham. Gold Coast have chopped Will Brodie despite a solid run of games. Josh Corbett gets another chance. The Tigers have another rookie debut in running halfback Derek Eggmolesse-Smith (DEF – 102.4k)
There are 7 changes between Adelaide and Port Adelaide for Showdown XLVII. Josh Jenkins is back after that terrible looking knee injury against Richmond, Wayne Milera is back and Bryce Gibbs has been dropped again. Karl Amon and Dougal Howard join Rocky and Westhoff for the Power, bubble boy Peter Ladhams is among the outs. In the Derby out west, Rory Lobb joins Aaron Sandilands amongst ins. Brett Bewley has been dropped and Sean Darcy “managed” (dropped). There will be no Mark Hutchings tag and Jeremy McGovern is straight back in after his week off. No changes for the Cats for their game against the Dogs, Toby McLean replaces the injured Caleb Daniel.
On Sunday, Charlie Curnow will miss for the Blues with injury and Oskar Baker has been dropped by the Dees. Matthew Cottrell (MID/FWD – 102.4k) and Hugh Goddard (DEF – 159k) are in the squad. Brayden Preuss has been named in case Maxy doesn’t get up in time. There’s also a possible debut for Kyle Dunkley (MID – 102.4k). North Melbourne will have at least one change after Kyron Hayden’s season ending injury. Mid season draftee, Lachlan Hosie (FWD – 102.4k), is on an extended bench. Curtis Taylor (MID/FWD – 117.3k) could play his second game. The Saints have added four names without a confirmed out as yet. For the last game of the round, Shane Mumford will miss for the Giants, Matthew Flynn (RUC – 123.9k) and Dawson Simpson have been named. Jake Stein (DEF – 123.9k) could return and Ian Hill (MID/FWD – 117.3k) could debut. At the Lions, former Dog Marcus Adams has again been named in the squad.
The House of Evil
These rookies come with a free frogurt! (that’s good)
These premiums come with Potassium Benzoate (that’s bad)
Can I go now? (Trade bait)
Smooth Kevy’s Lock of the Week
Caleb Daniel is the 5th most popular premium forward and he needs to be replaced this week after a ‘moderate grade’ hamstring injury against Port will sideline him for the next 3-4 weeks. The silver lining here was the injury came in the 4th quarter and he’d put up 88SC in that time, meaning his price didn’t plummet. Priced at 532k, only fellow Dog Josh Dunkley may be out of reach but you can sideways to another top 10 forward for as little as 19k (Tim Kelly).
But should you get a little funky to generate cash AND keep up decent output? It may only net you 21k, but Jack Ziebell is averaging 111SC since Rhyce Shaw took over coaching duties at the club. You can be confident hell keep his midfield role until the end of the year. If you listened to the podcast this week, Lek frothed all over Sam Petreski-Seton. Owned by less than 3,000 coaches, he is averaging 105 since David Teague arrived and a trade to him will net you 88.9k.
Hey Now, You’re a Draftstar
After a uhh, less than ideal opinion about Shaun McKernan last week being an absolute Draftstars spud (which he is Patch, fight me!) I’ll be avoiding Essendon games now that Tom Bellchambers is injured and a I refuse to have Shaun in my lineups. It’s a double Derby round this week, let’s head west and look at West Coast facing off against Fremantle.
Tom Hickey (FWD / 9.8k) still managed to put up 77DS on the back of 21 hitouts and 7 tackles last week against the Hawks despite sharing ruck duties with Nic Nat (11.5k). Fremantle have conceded 89DS to rucks this season and 99DS over the past month, so a double ruck stack is in play in you want to go in that direction.
However, there’s a wrinkle in these plans. Those numbers don’t take into account the return of Aaron Sandilands (10.9k), so both these guys may get less of the hitouts they did last week. Nic Nat only had 6 disposals last week, if he’s not winning the hitouts his score will suffer. Rory Lobb (FWD / 11.8k) is also in the team, so I’m not real interested in playing a Fremantle ruck until I see how their partnership works out.
Both sides have had their issues containing medium forwards this year and both sides have a bunch. Sam Switkowski (7.6k) only has one goal to his name in the past month but averages 60 in that time. Switta gets his numbers from tackling, so if he can jag a goal or two he’ll push that 70-80 mark. I’ve enjoyed playing Jamie Cripps (10k) these past few weeks, he brings 80 point upside and has topped that mark in 4 of his 6 games at Optus this year. Michael Walters (MID / 13.5k) and his massive ceiling is always in play. Liam Ryan (8.8k) spent more time up the ground last week with Jarrod Cameron and Willie Rioli taking crumbing duties and is in play again this week if those two stay in the team.
Jack Darling (9.9k) and Josh Kennedy (8.4k) *could*be fantastic value. Or they *could* both tank spectacularly. Slot one in if you’re feeling brave or both if you’re an absolute madman.
As was the case with medium forwards, both sides have let medium defenders get off the hook this year. West Coast in particular have conceded huge points to Lachie Whitfield (133), Tow Stewart (124), and Jake Lloyd (149). Luke Ryan (11.1k) has a massive ceiling when he gets going, and then there’s Connor Blakely (MID / 11.7k). Is he back? (in Pog form). He’s had 6 games now since returning from injury and picked up 31 touches and 5 marks against the Blues. Shannon Hurn (13.7k) hasn’t tonned up for a month but brings 120+ point upside.
If you’re looking to be a bit sneaky and save a bit of dosh at the same time, both sides are in the top 5 when it comes to conceding points to key backs. This brings Jeremy McGovern (9.8k), Tom Barrass (9.4k), and Griffin Logue (8.8k) into play.
Mitch Crowden (5.7k) will play his first game of the year. A “Lachie Neale clone” in the words of Damo, he probably won’t get a lot of midfield time but his tackling form in the WAFL is outrageous. He’s had 59 in the past 6 weeks and if he can bring that to the big stage he’ll hit value. Darcy Tucker (9.9k) is having a great time following Nat Fyfe around and getting some easy touches. Chasing a Chris Masten (8.2k) junk game is a pain so I’m not doing it this week (watch him do just this as soon as I don’t pick him).
From here it’s trying to jam in as many guns as you can. A Jack Redden (13.5k) ceiling game is a beautiful thing. His past 3 against Freo? 127, 133, 124. Minus his concussion affected score in round 3, Nat Fyfe (15k) averages a ridiculous 115 at Optus so far this year and will enjoy not having Mark Hutchings breathing down his neck. Andrew Gaff (16k) averages an even more ridiculous 122 at the venue so far this year. Elliot Yeo (14.9k) gives a greater ceiling at a cheaper price than Gaff, however he doesn’t share the same level of consistency.