Round 6 is already two games old and my whole world has been turned upside down, black is east, up is white, and the Panic Room this week is a hodgepodge of “advice” and a place where you can sound off about how your team is travelling (or to rip on Lek for talking smack about our Lord and saviour, Max Gawn)
By the virtue of AFL’s insane scheduling we only had two days to wallow in the self pity that was round 5. A shift in how our teams scored saw the round being a low scoring week. Our rookies decided to rock up fashionably late to the party, leaving most of us caught out with them warming the pine without an E on them. On the flip side, our premiums decided to put their feet up and put in the kind of effort I do during the working week.
Trades are tricky this week, some fallen premiums are on the horizon but are rookies are so slim there’s no value in the trade or they have negative or low breakevens so there is much more cash to be made. If you’re still sitting on Max (love him) trades, the one move I don’t mind is cutting ties with Chris Burgess. Four of his 5 scores have been below is breakeven this week, and could only manage two touches and a mark from 81% game time against the Crows (edit: and he’s been dropped this week)
This has been Patch this week as we’ve somehow survived bringing you fresh content as the AFL schedule around the clock games for your viewing pleasure. We’re all tired and cranky so the abuse in the podcast is real this week. Luckily Barron is here as the mature one who can actually make sense in his Around the Grounds article. Get your fill of Matty’s beautiful cheat sheets and head on over to Damo’s genius article on our captain choices for the week.
We’ve hit a mini crisis with three popular rookies all losing their spot this week. Bailey Scott, Chris Burgess, and Jordan Clark are all out. Friendly reminder if you do choose to trade, you CANNOT reverse it. Be 120% sure with your move. Also, with Geelong playing the final game of the week it opens up a captaincy loophole for the entire weekend (assuming you haven’t used your VC on Gawn/Grundy yet).
No changes at Port for tonights games against North. Tarryn Thomas is back for his small amount of owners, as is Luke McDonald. Paul Ahern is one of three outs. Josh Corbett (FWD – 123.9k) will make his debut for Gold Coast in their only change. Noah Answerth (DEF / MID – 117.3k) will also debut in one of four changes at Brisbane, Harris Andrews’ injury the most SuperCoach relevant of the bunch. Myles Poholke is being rewarded for his huge 30 disposal / 4 goal game for Adelaide reserves last weekend. Will Hayes holds his spot at the Dogs, Jackson Trengove for Bailey Williams being their only change. Cam McCarthy returns for Freo in David Mundy’s 300th game. Toby Greene is back for Giants but they’ve surprisingly dropped Jackson Hately. Nick Blakey is back in the side for the Swans.
On Sunday, neither Hawthorn or Carlton have any confirmed outs as yet. Of the 8 new names, only Ben Stratton is listed on field, although you’d expect Charlie Curnow to play. Charlie Constable is back at the Cattery as promised, they’ve also named tall targets Darcy Fort (RUC – 117.3k) and Ryan Abbott. Zach Tuohy will make his season debut. Josh Rotham has made the extended bench for West Coast and will be on the bubble if he’s named.
The House of Evil
These rookies come with a free frogurt! (that’s good)
These premiums come with Potassium Benzoate (that’s bad)
Can I go now? (Trade bait)
Smooth Kevy’s Lock of the Week
I almost gave The Lock a rest this because having to acknowledge Jack Billings is bringing up all sorts of PTSD symptoms that my very expensive therapy sessions were meant to deal with. Richo has seen the light, finally putting Jack onto a wing where he has tallied 28, 28, 32, 34, and 28 possessions to start the season. Add in an average of 5.6 marks, 2 tackles, and a tick over 400m gained per match Billings has created a safe floor for himself.
His breakeven of 69 this week will see his price tip over the 500k mark. Keep him in mind when upgrading over the coming weeks. On form he is a monty to be a top 8 forward this year and will give top 6 a good crack.
Hey Now, You’re a Draftstar
Are we still calling it the Battle of Bridge? Because we shouldn’t, it’s literally the worst name for a cross town rivalry.
Shane Mumford (10.2k) price isn’t moving much despite his solid start to the season. He has put up 3x 80’s and smashed Sinclair in 62 v 14 in the hitouts back in R5, 2017.
Both teams are very stingy in this position having yet to concede a fantasy hundred to a medium defender in 2019. There’s also going to be tags galore going on with de Boer, Hewett, and Cunningham all doing jobs in recent matchups between the sides. Spending up on a Lloyd or Whitfield could tank your lineup. Jeremy Finlayson (8.3k) looks to be good value, averaging 80 over the past month. Jackson Thurlow (9.2k) may see some extra opportunities if GWS put effort into stopping Lloyd. Zac Williams (11.2k) hit three figures for the first time in 2019 last week. We know what he can do when he gets going. He has a handy record in this fixture but is probably a tad overpriced considering his low floor.
Are we going to get a monster Buddy (11.2k) game? Phil Davis has been surprisingly named this week and could be a late out. Nonetheless, Buddy has averaged 19 disposals, 9 marks, kicked 7.4 at an average of 106.5 from the two home and away matches against the Swans last year. If Davis is ultimately ruled out, he becomes a lock and load play for me.
Michael Walters dined out of GWS last week, which brings goal kicking mids Isaac Heeney (MID / 12.9k) and Tom Papley (MID / 11k) into play. If you’ve got plums the size of a planet, Toby Greene (9.6k) destroyed the Swans in the elimination final last year but could also score 50 and kick someone in the face.
Jackson Hately (8.1k) would have been fantastic value if he wasn’t omitted, there’s a rumbling he may win a reprieve with Davis’ dodgy ankle so if Hately does come in don’t get caught napping. For value I don’t mind the bargain priced James Rowbottom (5.8k). Showing no problems in finding the pill, his 60 last week came from only 66% game time.
Despite their tagging pedigree, the Swans have had their struggles limiting opposition midfielders. Josh Kelly (14.2k) is still underpriced given his ceiling. Tim Taranto is another that has flashed 120 point upside this season. JPK (13.6k) will be up for this game but his ceiling smashing days are behind him. Harry Cunningham (13.1k) has back-to-back 120’s, you’ll be able to snag him at low ownership as coaches chase the GWS guns.
If Hately gets named: