As regular readers of the Panic Room will know I’m not a huge fan of Thursday night footy. I mean footy at any time is grouse, but it throws the writing of this article out. I can’t provide you, the viewing public, with the appropriate levels of PANIC until the teams drop after the article is out. That said, I’ve been around this caper for many years. I feel it folks, there’s something in the back of the gut telling me there’s gonna be CARNAGE tonight. Especially in the forward line, where Heeney, Parker, Petrucelle, Balta, and Burgess are all under clouds. Will Setterfield is already confirmed to miss with suspension. Throw in the regular Thursday curveballs and there’s a recipe for disaster.
Our favourite good boy Damo slid into my DM’s this week to have a yarn about just how cooked this season is becoming… and we’re only 5 weeks in. With some creative editing on my part, here are some of his musings.
I know it’s hard community, I know it sucks watching the team you’ve carefully crafted for months come together and be very bad at football, but don’t chase the quick fix. Don’t drop 400k on a trading a rookie to a premo. Don’t trade in a rookie that has questionable job security. There’s still months of this season to go and I can guarantee* the dodgy midpricers scoring well right now will be nowhere to be seen at the pointy end. *not a guarantee
It might feel like you’ve selected every terrible premo so far, but a look at the breakevens this week shows there are many terrible premo’s that are ready to turn it around that we’ll be able to snaffle on the cheap very soon.
This is just my opinion of course, if you want a better one chuck in the earbuds and listen to the greatest podcast intro of all time (and stick around for the rest of the show). Pop the kettle on and have a read of Barron’s Around the Grounds for round 4. Matty’s cheat sheet is beautiful and looks stunning (like Matty). Have a look. Listen to this man selecting your captain, he knows his stuff! Have a squiz at the captains article here.
There’s s feeling in the waters Thursday teams are going to absolutely rip us a new one, but for now, things are sweet. Brisbane is sticking with the same lineup that got smashed by Essendon last weekend. Collingwood are making one forced change, Dayne Beams is back in, replacing the injured Chris Mayne.
Just disregard my entire opening because there’s no carnage at all. Like nada. Devon Smith is out tonight and that might hurt a few. Bailey Scott is back in for North. Josh Rotham has lost his spot to the returning Lewis Jetta. Todd Marshall is in for Port in a move that may free up Justin Westhoff to roam up the ground. Jackson Hately (MID – 148.8k) makes his debut at the Giants. Nat Fyfe is good to go after a week off, he replaces Lachie Schultz. Marty Hore has kept his spot even with the returns of Nev Jetta and Jordan Lewis. Jack Steven is back for the Saints. The Tigers continue to be ruthless at the selection table, dropping the hero of every Tiger fan, Jack Graham. Bachar Houli and Dusty return to the side. There’s a debut for the highly regarded James Rowbottom (MID – 117.3k) at the Swans. Justin McInerney and Nick Blakey have been omitted.
On Sunday, the Dogs will have at least three changes. They confirmed debuts for Lachie Young (DEF – 120.4k) and Will Hayes (MID – 117.3k). Kreuzer returns for the Blues and there’s a possible debut for Angus Schumacher (DEF – 123.9k). Adelaide have added Bryce Gibbs and Hugh Greenwood to their squad.
Easter Monday has Jaegar back in the squad at Hawthorn. They’ll lose at least James Frawley for the clash. Geelong have added Zac Smith to their squad.
The House of Evil
Interesting set of breakevens this week with some tasty looking premiums facing a price drop in the coming weeks. Trade only if you’re desperate for rookie coverage.
These rookies come with a free frogurt! (that’s good)
These premiums come with Potassium Benzoate (that’s bad)
Smooth Kevy’s Lock of the Week
Tim Taranto was always going to get extra midfield minutes with Dylan Shiel’s departure to Essendon, but the question that dogged me throughout the preseason was just how much more. With three scores above 110 (and a 78) to start the season, he’s shown there’s enough points to go around even with Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio, and Jacob Hopper all having three figure averages. At a tick under 500k, he represents incredible value and is a POD at only 4.9% owned. With Callan Ward unfortunately doing his ACL, Timmy T’s midfield minutes are a lock.
He does have that round 14 bye though, which is a problem for some. So check that you’re not trading yourself into a corner before considering him.
Hey Now, You’re A Draftstar
Last week I called out David Mundy as being the one who benefits most from Fyfe missing, snagging his 125 at 11% owned almost dragged us over the line, missing the cash by 21 points. I missed Rotham’s late in and his 5k price tag would have provided the value to get Petrucelle off the field. Oh well.
Friday Night Football is the jewel in channel 7’s footy crown. Tonight we’ve got *checks fixture* North Melbourne vs Essendon… sigh. Okay, let’s do this…
A look at the ruck line tonight is why I love daily fantasy. Zac Clarke (5.5k) is The Worst but he’s making a lot of sense tonight. He might only score in the 40-50 range but he provides a lot more value over the other two options. Tom Bellchambers (10.8k) is in terrible form Goldy (13.5k) is not worth 13.5k it. He does have two 90’s in 4 games, but he beat up Sean Darcy and Reilly O’Brien for those.
Both teams are fairly stingy in defence as a whole, but North do give up an average 93.5DS to the oppositions top medium defender. Andrew McGrath (MID / 10.6k) looks good value for a guy that’s put up three 80’s from his 4 games. Jordan Ridley (8.3k) is quickly finding his feet at this level and is excellent value and Adam Saad (8.8k) has cooled after hot start. I don’t see Jasper Pittard (11.8k) hitting three figures again tonight, but he’s in form so I’m not against chasing that if you’ve got the coin to spare.
Essendon have conceded some huge scores to the oppositions number 1 midfielder so far this year. Cogs (161DS), Angus Brayshaw (129DS), and Lachie Neale (139DS) have all dined out on the Bombers. North have also had their struggles against the best midfielder, so targeting the best mid on each team is a good strategy. Shaun Higgins (14.7k) is averaging a lazy 32 touches to start the year. You can throw a blanket over Zach Merrett (15.7k), Dyson Heppell (14.8k), and Dylan Shiel (14.2), so pick the one that you can afford.
Historically speaking, it’s Aaron Hall (11.6k) that has the best record here, averaging 114 in his past 3 against Essendon. Jed Anderson (11.6k) is an underrated member of this North lineup, he had 6 tackles on his return last weekend. He didn’t drop under 75DS from round 14 last year, he should keep it up.
Very little excites me in the forwards. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (11.1k) is a huge risk but his confidence would be sky high after 7 goals and 139DS last weekend. Both sides concede around 80DS to number 1 opposition forwards. This brings Shaun Atley (10.6k) into consideration, likewise the more expensive Jack Ziebell (11.7k). Mitch Brown (11k) had 11 marks last week but might find things tougher against North’s defence. Orazio (10.1k) has a terrible floor but is worth the punt and we haven’t got much else