SuperCoach Panic Room: Round 4
Is it just me or does this season already feel like week 15 and we’ve just been chewed up and spat out by the byes? Injuries, suspensions, underperforming premiums, and several rookies already looking like they’ve hit the wall are testing our resolve to remain calm. There’s no such thing as a quick fix in SuperCoach, as we say, ‘it’s a marathon, not a sprint” so keeping your head is paramount at the moment. That said, who doesn’t love contemplating a good complicated trade scenario to distract yourself from the boring 9 till 5 life?
This week water coolers all over the land were dominated by the Dusty saga. Questions regarding the severity of act aside, do they not have cameras in Sydney? How can there be 17 different angles of Cox tangling with Grimes the other week but all we’ve got is grainy footage filmed on a Nokia 3310 from 80 metres away? Then there was Dusty’s “gesture” to (presumably) Shane Mumford. Now I’m not some fancy big city lawyer, but you don’t need to be a body language expert to decode that one. The AFL issued a please explain over the incident.
As always, big week by the boys. Damo has overtaken the podcast this week and I, for one, welcome our new West Australian overlord. Things are heating up in the rookie department as everyone is falling over. Get in inside word on who is pushing their case in Barron’s rookie report. Nailing your captain is key to a decent score in these early rounds, check out Damo’s captain article over here, and last, but certainly not least, you can click here to get on, in, and around Magnificent Matty’s cheat sheet
As U2 famously sung, “Thursday, Bloody Thursday” (don’t fact check that). The Swans host the Dees tonight and the Dees have given us Gawn owners reason to break out in cold sweats by selecting Braydon Preuss for his club debut. Neal-Bullen has been dropped. Billy Stretch is in for Kade Kolo…???…nij (head knock). The Swans are handing a debut to Justin McInerney (DEF – 117.3k). His pace and willingness to take the game on won himself plenty of fans on the back of 15 disposals in JLT2. While it didn’t translate to a massive SC score (51SC), he’s one to watch. Veteran Kieran Jack will play his first game of the year. McVeigh (quad) and Hayward (jaw) are the ones to make way.
Collingwood have dropped tagger Levi Greenwood for Travis Varcoe tonight. Jason Johannisen will play his first game of the season, Lewis Young is the one to make way. Jack Henry is back for the Cats after a week out
Callan Ward will lineup for the Giants for the first time this year. Essendon have dropped Aaron Francis for some reason in one of four changes. Cale Hooker is amongst the rather uninspiring ins. Allen Christensen will have his first run for the year at Brisbane. Some big changes at the Tigers as injuries and suspension continue to hit the club hard. Trent Cotchin and Jayden Short are injured, Dusty is rubbed out for a week, and they’ve dropped three more. Dylan Grimes returns from suspension. Houli and Josh Caddy return from injuries, and there’s a debut for Jack Ross (MID – 117.3k). Shai Bolton (FWD – 146.6k) and Liam Baker (FWD – 162.1k) are cheaper options to keep an eye on if they impress. Port will go in unchanged for the match. For the derby out West, Nat Fyfe is out despite my famous chicken soup and around the clock rubdowns. Lachie Schultz is back in. Josh Rotham is straight out for the returning Liam Duggan. Bailey Scott is being “rested” for North after doing nothing for us for two weeks. Paul Ahern finally gets a game. The struggling Bryce Gibbs has been dropped by the Crows.
Only the two games on Sunday. There’s a possible debut for Liam Stocker (MID – 126.3k) at Carlton. Charlie Curnow is back in after a week out. Gold Coast have added four players to their squad for the game. There’s no listed outs for the Saints and Hawthorn yet, but you’d expect at least one change for each as Jack Steven and Jarryd Roughead will return.
The House of Evil
Rookie prices are beginning to shift so it’s important now to not only keep track of when their breakeven matches up their average (a sign you should trade a rookie) but to do the same with premiums who have copped a price loss. Watch for when their breakeven becomes achievable again so you can snag them at their lowest price point.
These rookies come with a free frogurt! (that’s good)
These premiums come with Potassium Benzoate (that’s bad)
Smooth Kevy’s Lock of the Week
Lachie Neale is the obvious choice here but that 646k price tag may be out of reach for some. The weekly rookie lotto in our forward and defensive lines is beginning to hurt and needs to be addressed. If you didn’t start Lachie Whitfield this season you probably considered him at some point, and now you’re kicking yourself you didn’t bite the bullet. Other than repeated instances of leather poisoning, an average of almost 700m gained a week is whatever the standard is above elite. 11 marks, 6.6 R50’s and 4.6 I50’s a game over the first 3 weeks, Lachie is doing it all and hardly spending any time on the bench. He’ll be above 600k very soon.
Hey Now, You’re A Draftstar!
The duck was finally broken last week! The lineup finished a respectable 53 points off the pace, settling for a 74th place finish. A $5.95 win if you entered into the $2 mini.
Fremantle gave up 122DS to Rowan Marshall last week so I’m all over Tom Hickey (FWD / 10k) here who is a similar type of mobile ruck. Against Rory Lobb he should be able to take advantage. Speaking of Lobb (FWD / 11.3k), I don’t mind him as a solo ruck. We saw at GWS this suited him well and he put up 95 last week.
On a single game slate Nathan Vardy (7.7k) will either tank your lineup with a 30DS or have a random value smashing game. If you’re entering multiple lineups chuck a dart in his direction but otherwise avoid.
Adam Cerra (MID / 8.8k) stepped it up last week after Fyfe was hurt and has been earmarked this week by Ross to do the same. Taylin Duman (9.6k) played intercepter last weekend against the Saints, pulling in 7 marks (4 intercepts). I love watching Oscar Allen (FWD / 6.9k) play. We’ve yet to see him have a value crushing game but he’ll rip a game open one day.
West Coast are only second to Richmond in conceding points to running defenders this year. If you’ve played Luke Ryan (10k) in DFS before you’ll know just how frustrating he can be, but he went B-A-N-A-N-A-S last week with 136DS. Shannon Hurn (11.8k) has 4 scores over 90 in his past 5 against Freo. If he can hit those heights 11.8k is a steal for a player of his consistency. Brad Sheppard (12k) is $200 more than Hurn and has scored between 85-95 to start the season.
Nat Fyfe is a massive loss for Freo. Looking at some in/out stats from 2018, David Mundy (FWD / 12.5k) averaged 12DS more in games without Fyfe. Ed Langdon (13k), Brad Hill (14.4k), and Michael Walters (11.6k) all saw drops between 10 and 13DS. Langdon is a much improved player though, so I don’t mind his selection. Travis Colyer (FWD / 8.8k) has had a nice start to his career in Fremantle colours and should see a bump without Fyfe.
On the other side of the ledger, there’s nothing like a derby to play yourself back into form, Elliot Yeo (14k) has a 3 game average of 118 against West Coast and should be low owned after an underwhelming start to 2019. Jack Redden (13.6k) is in the same boat, a three game average of 125DS against Freo. Andrew Gaff (16.2k) is a Draftstars stud. If you can afford to pay up for him get on board. Bailey Banfield is an interesting out, he kept Luke Shuey (13.7k) quiet last year
Any off the DPP guys (Lobb, Mundy, Colyer) missed the cut elsewhere you can put them here. Not many more forwards I like. Freo have struggled against medium forwards so far this season, giving up 84DS to Jade Gresham and 103DS to Alex Sexton. Jack Petruccelle (6.8k) has had a reasonable fortnight and is a good salary saver.