It has taken exactly one weekend of football for the AFL Gods and the SuperCoach Gods to team up and remind us all that they are vengeful bastards who care not for months of carefully planned research and analysis. On top of 90% of our “sure thing” premo’s shitting the bed, they rub salt into the wound by having a bunch of questionable midpricers we’ve been trained to ignore go absolutely bananas.
There’s a huge temptation to trade this week, I get it, but as Lek and Damo told us approximately 784 times in podcast – please don’t. 30 trades seems a lot but you’ll be kicking yourself later in the year when you really do need those trades.
Let’s just forget it, community. It’s only round 1, round 2 is a reset.
The #CoxCurse has also reared its ugly head and I’m convinced it’s a thing because Patch keeps saying it’s a thing. You know, like Beetlejuice or Slenderman or Carlton having a successful 5-year plan. So I’m going to do a thing and harness the power of this beautiful community. Before you go to bed tonight and flick through your collection of Nat Fyfe photos (just me?) I want you to look square in the bathroom mirror and say the following three times:
“Shut up, Patch.”
We’ll know next week if it has worked!
There has been a bunch of beautiful ~ content ~ on the site this week. We’ve got podcasts and rookie roundups and cheat sheets and captain picks. I love the boys, they are all good lads but that pales it all pales in comparison to the God, the messiah if you will, rejoining the Twitterverse and dropping some hot statistical analysis. We love you, Peter J Higginbotham! The mic is always on for you if you want to swing by the Bungalow.
Best wishes and hopes for a speedy recovery ahead for Alex Rance, Tom Doedee, Tim Mohr, and Ed Vickers-Willis after doing their ACL’s on the weekend.
Ugh. More Thursday night football. While it’s starting to grow on me (mainly because I don’t have to drag my ass out of bed Friday morning) it makes writing the Panic Room a pain in proverbial butt. I’ll do the same as last week and drop team news for tonight, as well as any confirmed selection news for the weekend. I’ll update this section fully on Friday morning.
For tonight… Levi Greenwood is in for Callum Brown in the Pies only change. Levi will be sticking to Dusty like glue tonight so if you can loophole Dusty seriously consider doing so. The Tigers have swung three changes, losing Rance (knee) and Houli (hamstring) to injury and omitting Noah Balta. Markov, Brandon Ellis, and Jason Castagna are the ins.
Elsewhere, both the Swans and the Crows have made two changed that have little SuperCoach ramifications. Among the ins is Colin O’Riordan, a 250k defender. Essendon have resisted swinging the axe, bringing in Darcy Parish for Ridley. Ruck musical chairs has begun already at the Saints, Rowan Marshall taking over from Pierce. Darragh Joyce is one and done. Port Adelaide have named an unchanged lineup for their game against the Blues, who have lost David Cuningham to injury. West Coast will welcome back JJK and are handing a club debut to former Pie Josh Smith. A 244k FWD, there were massive wraps on this guy over the preseason. Still no Josh Kelly at GWS, Toby Greene has the dreaded general soreness and Harry Perryman will miss with a punctured lung. Melbourne are giving a debut to 102k DEF/MID Jay Lockhart. Steven May and Kade Kolo(something, something)nij will make their club debuts.
On Sunday, there’s potential debuts for Tarryn Thomas (MID / 175.8k), Connor Ballenden (FWD / 123.9k), and Noah Answerth (DEF/MID / 117.3k). Archie Smith has been named on an extended bench. At the Hawks, Tom Scully has been resurrected after being legally declared dead in last years trade period. Dylan Moore (FWD / 123k) is a chance to debut. The Dogs have added four names without any outs as yet. Freo get another training run to end the round. They’ve lost Ballantyne to injury. Among 5 ins is Damo’s favourite player in the world. Brandon Matera. Jesse Hogan will make his club debut. Ben King (FWD / 184.8k) is a chance to debut at the Suns. Sam Collins is right to go after suffering concussion last week. Ben Ainsworth (knee) is the only confirmed out so far.
Smooth Kevy’s Lock of the Week
Remember how I said I put the mozz on players that I highlight in this section? Well, yeah. Danger put up 97SC on Friday night. While not awful considering the round we had, it’s not what you want from a bloke that set you back 660k.
As I said in the intro, we’ve got another week before things get serious and we look at trading. That said, keep an eye on Willem Drew, Bailey Scott, and Charlie Constable this week. If they can repeat their round 1 heroics they become non-negotiable must haves next week because of the cash they will generate. Matt Parker’s 87 may be an anomaly considering his role, but if he does back it up he’s another to get into your side.
Hey Now, You’re a Draftstar
Last week: 7/9 picks between 81-115 but ultimately got boned by a 29 from Balta and a 32 from Broad. Didn’t cash.
I’ll again look at Thursday night footy between Richmond and Collingwood tonight. Richmond got reamed in the prelim final last year and will want to make amends, but will find things tough without Alex Rance.
Nank (13.7k) was brilliant last week and will need another big game tonight. If he can get forward again and kick a few a consecutive 100+ score is on the cards. I’ll never talk you off Brodie Grundy (17k), but his price is prohibitive without throwing a few hail mary’s on this slate. He does average a massive 132 from 3 games against the Tigers last year though. Mason Cox (also a FWD / 9.7k) is also an option with the Rance-less Richmond backline. On paper, I don’t see a matchup for Cox tonight but I’m hopeless at picking a huge Cox game.
Targeting running defenders against Richmond worked last week so I’m heading back to the well with that strategy. Jeremy Howe (10.5k) had 8 rebound 50’s last week. Darcy Moore (7.5k) had 7 and is a great way to get value on this slate. He does spoil a lot rather than taking the mark which you don’t get points for in Draftstars. Always target guys who kick rather than handball in Draftstars, James Aish (also a MID / 9.8k) under 10k is a good bet. If you can fit in Jack Crisp (12.1k) he is also a fantastic option. Oleg Markov (5.9k) is far too cheap if he steps into Bachar Houli’s role. Jayden Short (11.2k) averaged 12 more points than his season average last year in games that Houli missed.
Both sides are pretty stingy against forwards so I’m happy to be cheap. Jaidyn Stephenson and Jamie Elliot are both 9.2k. Jamie looked sharp last week but his score will be goal dependant. The mosquito fleet is back for Tigers. Castagna, Butler, and Rioli up forward should see extra midfield minutes for Jack Higgins (9.7k). Dan Butler (8.4k) has an okay record against the Pies for his price but is another who won’t see a lot of the ball. If you do want to go against the field, Kane Lambert (13.1k) bagged 112DS last week with plenty of midfield time. He won’t see many owners with the other premiums available.
Richmond don’t tag and the Pies have a lot of very good midfielders who are good at football. They are all in play really but I particularly like Sidebum (14.8k), Pendles (13.k) and Tom Phillips (12.6k). I mentioned Jack Graham (9.7k) last week as being a nice pivot off the cheaper Carlton mids but it should have been the other way round. His price has only risen $200 after his 106 last week and he found plenty of the footy to go along with his love of tackling. I’ll be trying to fit my boy Trent Cotchin (11.4k) in, he is severely underpriced after his role last week looked to be more of a traditional onballer.