Long-time listener and reader, first time writer, so definitely be kind. I’ve got the task of talking you out of a SuperCoach favourite and beast, Teen Wolf.
Sitting at $618,100 and in 36% of teams, this could be a tricky one, but stick with me.
First, let’s look at the cold hard facts:
|2015||18||124.3||1||Brownlow & AA|
My first question for those Fyfe lovers out there is: how many games are you expecting him to play in 2019? I’d suggest that anything less than 19 would be a waste of your $618,100. But let’s look a little closer.
Fyfe has played 142 of a possible 198 regular season games, 71 per cent. His durability is a huge question mark, he has never played a full season and has been hit with various injuries over his 9 years. The counter to this is that he doesn’t really need a full season to dominate, he put up a career best 124.3 and won a Brownlow in 2015 from 18 games.
The major point to consider is what does your team look like with Fyfe sitting on your bench, injured. Assuming you’ll have rookie cover, putting out an average of 65 as a Fyfe replacement, every week he sits out costs you 45-60 points. This is why durability is so important. Taking Fyfe’s missed games into consideration in 2018, means his average drops from 113.9 down to 96.7 with rookie cover. Dyson Heppell and his 22 games at 101.6 was a better selection in 2018.
Another little nugget I noticed while digging through Fyfe’s stats, as Freo have moved down the ladder so has Fyfe’s output. Over the past 6 years Freo have spent three years inside the eight and three years outside.
Playing in the 55 of a possible 66 games Freo have been in the top eight, Fyfe has been good for a 117.7 average, but on the flipside, 41 games outside the top eight have led to a 109.3 average.
Fyfe losses 8.5 points while Freo struggle, there are other impacts to consider here, like his own ability to stay on the park, but there’s no doubt a poor showing by Freo in 2019 will mean his ceiling is lowered.
There’s another element to consider here and it’s quite a large one. You know who else has had a similar five-year pattern?
Fyfe had the two best years of his career feeding off the big man in the successful Freo teams of 2014 & 2015. There’s no doubt in Fyfe’s ability to score in losing teams and score without a dominant ruckman, but his ceiling drops by 8-10 points without the help of Sandi.
There’s no doubting he’s a prolific scorer and a captain option every week he plays, in the 5 years he has played 18 games or more he has averaged 113.98.
He’s Teen Wolf for Christ’s sake!
Basically, everything above. Also – he had minor elbow surgery just after AFLX. He’s still expected to play the second JLT game, but it’s still a concern.
It’s sad to see such a dominant player not be able to play a full season and not be a lock for our teams, but I can’t entertain him in 2019, at $618,100 and with a breakeven of 112, I think, at a minimum, he is fully priced if not overpriced and with a forecast of 15-18 games at 113, it has to be no.
So… who should you take instead?
The guy I really like to take another step next year currently sits in 6% of teams and posted a 115.1 in his 11 post-bye games…
The Yo-Yo lost DPP two seasons ago and not too dissimilar to Jack Macrae, coaches lost interest. Young Elliot has been frustrating at times and teased us through those early years as a DEF/MID, but in his last two seasons as a mid-only he posted 102.1 and 107.9. He is building into a large 2019, with more consistency, we won’t see any more 27’s!
He is absolutely entering his prime as a 25-year-old and more positively, is on a SuperCoach friendly team that wins games and blows teams away out West. Yeo loves playing at home and West Coast have 6 games at home in 2019 against teams that finished in the bottom 8 in 2018, including Freo, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs. In his last 5 home games of 2018 he averaged 125.6.
Not having Nic-Nat didn’t impact his scoring ability, so losing Lycett is no concern. He had more centre bounces attendances than any other Eagle in 2018 and was in the top 8 players overall, only trailing the likes of Cripps, Mitchell, Oliver and Martin.
My only concern is that his preseason has been managed with a toe injury, but by all reports he is in full training and on track for round one, I’d just keep an eye on anything that comes out of the West mentioning our favourite words ‘slight setback’, but otherwise he’ll be ready to go come round one.
Thanks for reading, let me know what you’re thinking on Fyfedawg, are you rolling the dice? Would you take Yo-Yo over Fyfe? Let’s hear it in the comments!