By Dave

Hello Community,

Long-time listener and reader, first time writer, so definitely be kind. I’ve got the task of talking you out of a SuperCoach favourite and beast, Teen Wolf.

Sitting at $618,100 and in 36% of teams, this could be a tricky one, but stick with me.  

First, let’s look at the cold hard facts:

Year Games Average Ladder Position Accolades
201815113.914
201721108.814
20165105.416
201518124.31 Brownlow & AA
201418122.34 AA
201319106.53
2012993.27
20112110811
20101672.66

My first question for those Fyfe lovers out there is: how many games are you expecting him to play in 2019? I’d suggest that anything less than 19 would be a waste of your $618,100. But let’s look a little closer.

Fyfe has played 142 of a possible 198 regular season games, 71 per cent. His durability is a huge question mark, he has never played a full season and has been hit with various injuries over his 9 years. The counter to this is that he doesn’t really need a full season to dominate, he put up a career best 124.3 and won a Brownlow in 2015 from 18 games.

But…

The major point to consider is what does your team look like with Fyfe sitting on your bench, injured. Assuming you’ll have rookie cover, putting out an average of 65 as a Fyfe replacement, every week he sits out costs you 45-60 points. This is why durability is so important. Taking Fyfe’s missed games into consideration in 2018, means his average drops from 113.9 down to 96.7 with rookie cover. Dyson Heppell and his 22 games at 101.6 was a better selection in 2018.

Another little nugget I noticed while digging through Fyfe’s stats, as Freo have moved down the ladder so has Fyfe’s output. Over the past 6 years Freo have spent three years inside the eight and three years outside.

Playing in the 55 of a possible 66 games Freo have been in the top eight, Fyfe has been good for a 117.7 average, but on the flipside, 41 games outside the top eight have led to a 109.3 average.

Fyfe losses 8.5 points while Freo struggle, there are other impacts to consider here, like his own ability to stay on the park, but there’s no doubt a poor showing by Freo in 2019 will mean his ceiling is lowered.

There’s another element to consider here and it’s quite a large one. You know who else has had a similar five-year pattern?

Aaron Sandilands

YearGames Average
201811 97.5
201710 87.3
20165 70.8
201521 107.8
201421 108.0

Fyfe had the two best years of his career feeding off the big man in the successful Freo teams of 2014 & 2015. There’s no doubt in Fyfe’s ability to score in losing teams and score without a dominant ruckman, but his ceiling drops by 8-10 points without the help of Sandi.

The Good

There’s no doubting he’s a prolific scorer and a captain option every week he plays, in the 5 years he has played 18 games or more he has averaged 113.98.

He’s Teen Wolf for Christ’s sake!

The Bad

Basically, everything above. Also – he had minor elbow surgery just after AFLX. He’s still expected to play the second JLT game, but it’s still a concern.

Verdict

It’s sad to see such a dominant player not be able to play a full season and not be a lock for our teams, but I can’t entertain him in 2019, at $618,100 and with a breakeven of 112, I think, at a minimum, he is fully priced if not overpriced and with a forecast of 15-18 games at 113, it has to be no.

So… who should you take instead?

The guy I really like to take another step next year currently sits in 6% of teams and posted a 115.1 in his 11 post-bye games…  

Elliot Yeo

The Yo-Yo lost DPP two seasons ago and not too dissimilar to Jack Macrae, coaches lost interest. Young Elliot has been frustrating at times and teased us through those early years as a DEF/MID, but in his last two seasons as a mid-only he posted 102.1 and 107.9. He is building into a large 2019, with more consistency, we won’t see any more 27’s!

The Good

He is absolutely entering his prime as a 25-year-old and more positively, is on a SuperCoach friendly team that wins games and blows teams away out West. Yeo loves playing at home and West Coast have 6 games at home in 2019 against teams that finished in the bottom 8 in 2018, including Freo, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs. In his last 5 home games of 2018 he averaged 125.6.

Not having Nic-Nat didn’t impact his scoring ability, so losing Lycett is no concern. He had more centre bounces attendances than any other Eagle in 2018 and was in the top 8 players overall, only trailing the likes of Cripps, Mitchell, Oliver and Martin.

The Bad

My only concern is that his preseason has been managed with a toe injury, but by all reports he is in full training and on track for round one, I’d just keep an eye on anything that comes out of the West mentioning our favourite words ‘slight setback’, but otherwise he’ll be ready to go come round one.

Thanks for reading, let me know what you’re thinking on Fyfedawg, are you rolling the dice? Would you take Yo-Yo over Fyfe? Let’s hear it in the comments!


38 Comments

Eric_the_Red · 23/02/2019 at 17:59

I have ditched Fyfe for now. Yeo injury is a slight concern but I currently have him as the replacement. Coniglio is another that I am very interested in.

TRIGGA_HAPPY · 23/02/2019 at 18:34

Beauty Dave.
Two for the price of one.
Good first article.
The words that concern me in preseason
are "managed, injured, cleanout or yet to join full training"

So as these cringe words are floating around both fyfe and yeo I wont be starting either.

Mind you the way the preseason is going even before JLT might be a case of last man standing and you pick a team from those who make it through. 😎

    Dave · 25/02/2019 at 11:51

    Thanks Trigga,

    Agreed! Scary, scary words!

    Yep, 1 solid JLT hit-out should be enough for some of the premo options, you'd hope.

UpBeat · 23/02/2019 at 18:41

Good job Dave. I'm still undecided about Fyfe will wait and see him in JLT, most likely pass on him. I absolutely like Yo and think he'll go uber this year so is a bargain imo. As you said Dave, Yeo is in his prime and the eagles will smash some bottom teams at home this season, more reason to look at a few other eagles who might benefit.

    Dave · 25/02/2019 at 11:52

    Thanks UpBeat,

    Yeah spot on, Yeo should push the sacred $600K mark in 2019.

Nice person · 23/02/2019 at 18:42

Good write up mate, just might need to fix your tables. 2018 games with an average of 15 is a pass for me

    Dave · 25/02/2019 at 11:53

    Thanks NP, will do!

Ja191 · 23/02/2019 at 18:43

Bit off topic but I’ve put together my best to worst prediction for every position this year. (* meaning injury problems). Any thoughts or anyone someone would change?
Defenders
Lloyd, laird, Simpson, Whitfield, Sicily, hurn/crisp

Midfielders
Macrae, cripps, Fyfe*, Oliver*, kelly*, Neale, yeo*, Duncan/Martin/conigs

Rucks
Grundy, Gawn

Forwards
Dangerfield, menegola, Heeney, kelly, Dunkley, Smith

    UpBeat · 23/02/2019 at 19:15

    In 2018 season Fyfe was 67th mid with 1708 total points and Kelly was 68th with 1707 points. I'm not saying this will happen again but injury prone players are not a wise choice if your hoping for a high rank finish, better to wait and pick them up later on if injury free and playing good footy.

      Ja191 · 23/02/2019 at 21:39

      Yeah mate not starting Fyfe/kelly myself for those reason aswell, that’s why I had the * over their names, assuming they don’t get injured

    Nice person · 24/02/2019 at 09:35

    Mate you just picked the top players from last year.

    Patch · 24/02/2019 at 22:37

    Merrett is obviously missing from t he #1 spot in the midfield 😛

    Mitch Duncan is a massive call and I love it – will you be starting him? I also love a sneaky Hurn selection down back, too.

Hegs · 23/02/2019 at 18:54

Well done on the words Dave. Enjoyed the insight on Yeo, is on the watchlist. Happily starting without Fyfe, targeting uber premiums with good track records of 22 games or near enough.

    Dave · 25/02/2019 at 11:53

    That's the way to go Hegs, trades are too valuable.

Maverick_ · 23/02/2019 at 20:13

bloody good stuff dave!
I have now ditched fyfe after your write up i have always been on the fence i don't want to miss his 140's but no doubt he may miss weeks and has a small elbow op which i cant affford.
oliver or yeo for me now i need 22 out of my premiums.

    Dave · 25/02/2019 at 11:54

    Absolutely Mav, durability is so important.

gator59 · 23/02/2019 at 21:00

From the AFL site….FREMANTLE superstar Nat Fyfe will have surgery in a bid to overcome a niggling elbow injury, but the Dockers expect him to be fit to play at least one game in the JLT Community Series.
Fyfe wore a black NBA/NFL-style 'shooting sleeve' in Friday night's realestate.com.au AFLX tournament, something the Team Flyers captain later said he could continue to wear in the home and away season to safeguard his elbow.
However, Dockers football manager Peter Bell told Perth radio station 6PR on Saturday Fyfe would have surgery on a troublesome bursa in his elbow, which he's had drained several times.
"You don't make a decision to send someone off for surgery flippantly, but he got a knock on it a couple of weeks ago and it did swell up," Bell said.
"He said it was really painful and when Nat Fyfe says something's painful … he's the guy that played with a broken leg for a game a few years ago for a quarter or so and played really well, so he's obviously got a really high pain threshold.
"I wouldn't think [his recovery] would be getting into the weeks, I think he would be back into full training really, really quickly and then we'll just manage with how he comes through that.
"Whether he's (ready for) JLT one or JLT two, we're confident he'll be playing a major part in the pre-season games."

neil demons delight · 24/02/2019 at 10:09

Onya Dave ripper mate i have ditched him but beware he does go huge. The injury so close to playing is enough.Oliver has had months to fix his op .and is now in. Yeo is similar to Fyfe ,if you dont get him it could leave you behind. Great write up mate thanks

    Dave · 25/02/2019 at 11:55

    Thanks NDD 🙂

Mick · 24/02/2019 at 12:24

Great article mate, too injury prone for mine, just going to cost either a trade or points at some point. Yo-Yo interesting but the toe injury has me worried.

The Ranger · 24/02/2019 at 13:24

NIce one Dave, thanks mate.
I've had Fyfe in and out of my team all preseason, just can't decide whether to take that risk.
I'm set on Macrae, Cripps and Kelly just can't nail down that 4th uber spot.
I think it will be one of Oliver, Yeo or Fyfe but they've all had interrupted preseasons which is less than ideal.

    Dave · 25/02/2019 at 12:00

    Thanks Ranger,

    I'm even more sold on Macrae now seeing his ownership slip to 21%. I had Kelly and Fyfe similarly placed on an injury front, I'm still worried about Kelly's durability. It'll probably cost me not having him! You may not need a 4th if you've got 2 or even 3 of Martin, Crouch, Sloane or Merrett. They could all be back to uber status in 2019.

YourMom · 24/02/2019 at 13:53

Thanks Dave.
IMO if Nat is named for round 1 you have to start him. So what if he gets injured that's what trades are for, if I get 10-games from him that's enough to have a significant gap on those that chose a Neale or Oliver instead.
His first 10-games last year he averaged 125.4 including 3×150+, 6×120+ and only 1 time under 100. TMItchs first 10-games ave was 122, Danger 115, Cripps 118, Oliver112, Neale 103,

    Dermin8r · 02/03/2019 at 10:10

    That's my thinking too, if Fyfe is in for Round 1, I will start him, ride his scores until he gets injured then use a trade, but I think he is too good to pass up early.

skindog · 24/02/2019 at 16:28

Cheers Davo, When i first picked my side with teampicker, he was in as the teams he plays in the first three rounds and normally sores well if not big against, so he's in, now, youve got me thinking, i dont want to waste trades which is always inevitable with Fyfe, can those points from a number of players, and no Neale would see Fyfe get the tag, even though he can break it easy, now, whos coming in?????

Derek · 24/02/2019 at 20:59

Great work Dave.

Fyfe is an upgrade target. Watch him close, see how he does and if he looks like he can finish strong will get him after byes

dontblushbaby · 24/02/2019 at 21:34

I believe it is a wait and see on the Ubers,Rookies ect , we are only guessing atm , JLT form will be a guide but how often the selection table for Round 1 throws up a few curve balls ,especially with Rookies.
We all have a structure in place to massage around as required

Rick Grimes · 24/02/2019 at 21:40

Sounds like Harris Andrews was sh1thouse playing forward v Suns. Reckon that experiment will be shelved.

    dontblushbaby · 24/02/2019 at 21:58

    yep, If he plays back re SC relevant IMO

      Nice person(Sc_Wow) · 25/02/2019 at 17:27

      To risky to pick him at all, could be swung at any moment. Happened with Hurley last year

    Patch · 24/02/2019 at 22:39

    Gosh I hope so. He's one of the best defenders in the game, don't do a Cale Hooker on the poor kid. Although if he's trying to steer clear of Dan the Man Rich I don't blame him so much

      Kales shake · 25/02/2019 at 16:23

      In fairness to Cale Hooker he was a pretty decent forward as well. Not many have his swinging abilities.

Fyfe is lyfe · 25/02/2019 at 16:19

But lyfe is Fyfe

    SupercoachYoda · 25/02/2019 at 16:27

    Rules of SuperCoach:

    1. Don't sideways trade
    2. Fyfe is lyfe

    They did a study on how much of Lyfe is actually Fyfe and worked out that about 72% of lyfe is Fyfe

      skindog · 25/02/2019 at 23:18

      gold,,

    UpBeat · 25/02/2019 at 16:29

    Amen

Gen · 25/02/2019 at 22:41

Wasnt yeo a defender last year? jus sayin

skindog · 25/02/2019 at 23:20

thought there was a pod tonight?

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