Supercoach 2019 – player reviews: Mitch Duncan

Filed in Midfielders, Supercoach by on 20/02/2019 • views: 2098

By ToughBretts

Geelong’s Mitch Duncan exploded in 2017 to become a top 15 player overall in Supercoach in 2017, and looked set to become the next great Geelong fantasy midfielder, until Ablett’s return took food off his plate.

He represents safety in his high floor, but with sharing a price bracket with Dusty and Bont who are both Brownlow contenders, a high floor may not be enough for some.

Do you back “Slam” Duncan to return to 110 heights? Or are there too many cooks in Geelong’s midfield kitchen?

The Good

Gary Ablett, Lachie Neale, Nat Fyfe, Josh Kelly, Clayton Oliver, Patty Dangerfield, Jack Macrae, Tom Mitchell, Mitch Duncan.

This is the complete list of players who finished top 20 overall in per-game scoring in both 2017 and 2018, where Mitch Duncan averaged 110 and 106 respectively.

In 2017, Duncan was the 15th highest scorer in total points, after he set career highs in disposals (29.1), tackles (5.3), marks (6.6) and clearances (4.3), before becoming the fourth musketeer upon Ablett’s arrival last year.

Unfortunately for Duncan, this forced him out of the starting midfield, but he was still able to have the second best season of his career. Now with Ablett set to move forward, logic would dictate that Mitch will step back in as the third starting midfielder and pick up right where he left off in 2017 as a 110 player, and at 27 years old, he should be right in the guts of his prime.

He is more of a Supercoach player than fantasy due to his elite efficiency, and it is his ball use that makes him such an asset in a midfield with Dangerfield and Selwood who are both not necessarily known for pinpointing targets out of stoppages.

If all the rumours about players apparently having an extra second or two to dispose of the footy with the extra room in the middle, then it would make sense to have your best ball users in at least one of the starting roles. He is also extremely durable, playing 63 games over the past three H&A seasons (played 24 games in 2017 and 24 in 2016 including finals).

The Bad

For as good as he was in 2017, he clearly regressed in almost every area last year (career high in Rebound-50s shows he was playing behind the ball more than he ever has).

The clear variable in that equation is Ablett, but with talk of midfields getting quicker this year, and the names Quinton Narkle and Nakia Cockatoo being floated as important pieces in the middle this year, will Duncan’s smooth and efficient style be more suited on a wing with the new 6-6-6 format? Menegola would also make sense to take Ablett’s midfield minutes in a straight swap in starting positions, and Charlie Constable is also high regarded internally and, at this stage, it’s hard to see him playing a non-midfield position.

The Ugly

The beauty of Mitch Duncan is the floor he represents. In the past two seasons, he has only dropped below 80 points on two occasions (72 and 70). This is because of his surgical precision with his kicking, and well rounded game that features above average tackles, marks, and he has 22 goals over the past two years.

But due to the largely uncontested nature of his game, there is a ceiling concern. From his 17 games in 2018 where he scored 94+ points, he only managed to hit 125 on three occasions (high of 134). This means you are likely spending 570k on a midfielder who is not a realistic captain option.

The Verdict

For all the ceiling concerns, and the lack of a clearly defined role, Mitch has the ability to be one of the top midfielders in the game. In his last 10 games of 2017, including three finals, he averaged 122.7.

Consecutively, he scored 144, 108, 106, 118, 132, 109, 125, 131, 144, 110, flashing the ability to go huge and string it together in a way that few in the game are capable of.

If he moves back into centre bounce arrangements, then he is automatically a candidate to average 110 for the year, and is a very good chance at playing 20+ games (touch wood).

He uses the ball well which makes him an asset in Supercoach more than fantasy, and he stuffs the stat sheet with tackles, marks and goals. He has single game career-highs of 18 tackles, 14 marks, 38 touches and 11 clearances, all while rarely missing a target, illustrating the variety of ways he can score.

It is very possible that midfields are moving more towards quicker, more dynamic players, and Mitch will be destined to be an outside contributor, but he represents a high floor in any situation, and he is the type of player who will never cost you a week’s matchup, but he also may not be a match-winner.

Is this the kind of player you want to spend 570k on? It is a congested price bracket, but he is one of the lower risk options if you are looking for a safe POD with upside. Watch JLT closely for role.

What do you think, community?

Comments (17)

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  1. skindog says:

    Very interesting and a grat write up again Tough, could be a great POD, gutsy call to pick him but thats what it takes,,,

  2. skindog says:

    Great*

  3. BannedUser says:

    Tim Kelly might throw a spanner in the works

  4. Intel Design says:

    I'll be passing on Duncan, but he could easily deliver what he delivered in 2017.

    Does anyone know if Pieman's still around, haven't seen him post lately.

    • dontblushbaby says:

      Nope, asked the same q awhile ago , he is either sooking over the Pies loss in the GF or the fact that Buckley nearly got them there, he was not a fan of Bucks.
      Hopefully this might bring him out ?

  5. SC_Kev7 says:

    Good stuff again, TB. Reckon Duncan is a viable POD to any of the more popular Dusty/Zerrett/MCrouch trio. M. Priddis-esque consistency

    • ToughBretts says:

      Pains me that I will likely start without Duncan, but if he can hold a 110 average through the first 5-6 games he’ll be my first upgrade.
      I currently rate Yeo and Crouch just higher (MID: Cripps, Fyfe, Yeo, Crouch, Zorko for keepers I expect to average 110)

  6. Browncow says:

    Keep an eye on Yeo TB. Apparently just started training after a long term toe injury. You might have a spot for Mitch yet – although Yeo would probably need to be on one leg to miss round 1.

    • ToughBretts says:

      Interesting point, it’s the same reason I’m not starting Oliver, Lloyd or Greene so I guess I should be consistent.
      I’ve decided to take Yeo out, but that spot will belong to Josh Kelly. Just can’t justify Duncan over Kelly.

  7. Browncow says:

    Understand that! Always a nervous afternoon when your opponent has Kelly and you don’t.

  8. The Ranger says:

    Nice one TB.
    For some reason he's often overlooked but I think he's an excellent M5 starting pick, more so than Merrett or Crouch.
    Doesn't get the tag, doesn't have an injury history, plays a very SC friendly game and if he ended up at M8 you'd have to be pretty happy with your M1-7.
    Seriously considering him myself.

  9. BrownlowBoy says:

    Watched Duncan closely as a Cats man last year.

    Was often starting off the back of the square before charging through the midfield.

    I think with Ablett set to play forward this year, Duncan and Kelly and I'm personally hoping Narkle will have a a bit more time to shine.

    Having said that, Dangerfield is looking the fittest and strongest I've ever seen him, and I believe he will be playing a lot more mid time like he was in his Brownlow year.

  10. SC_Donkey says:

    Nice write up TB<img draggable="false" class="emoji" alt="👍" src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/11/svg/1f44d.svg"&gt; Duncan has been overlooked many times and running in the shadow of Danger Selwood and Ablett, T Kelly could also throw people away from Duncan.

    ——————————————–
    Hi community here's my 1st crack of picking my team for the season. Yes first crack at it, started late this year. I was thinking of not playing SC this year, but here I am again<img draggable="false" class="emoji" alt="😁" src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/11/svg/1f601.svg"&gt; haven't done much research, hoping I can get some options, opinions on who's hot and cold.

    Back
    Laird, Simmo, Williams
    Rozee, Collins, Quaynor

    Mids
    Cripps, Fyfe, Yeo, Kelly
    Crouch, Constable, C-Dawkins, Hind

    Ruck
    Goldy, Kreuzer

    Fwd
    Danger, Westhoff, Smith
    Dunkley, Setterfeld, Burgess

    Still have $132,800 to spend

    Can't go pass the consistency of Laird and Simmo locked and thrown key. Still deciding on who will be my D3 Witherden, Williams or McGrath keeping a close watch on them three. We seem to have a fair bit of rookies down back, its why I opted to go with 2-1-3 structure.

    So many good value to choose from in the guts, but can't pick them all. We have a few fallen premos an few breakout contenders, I have gone with 5 keepers who I think will average 110(Top 10) mark through the season. I haven't done much research on rookies in the guts hoping you guys can help me and throw some names.

    Goldy I believe will be top 3 or 4 in the Ruck this year, I have him locked. Toying the idea of having Mummy or Kreuzer R2 depends how he goes in training and JLT, hopefully he's over with his injury before season start. They're either a hit or bust for me, I have Westhoff up forward for cover.

    I have gone 4 deep with keepers up fwd, we seem to be lacking of rookies in this department. F1-F3 is locked Still switching between Heeney and Dunkley as my F4 at this stage.

    • Russty_ says:

      Hi Donk, I like your side, although I'd prefer Heeney over Dunkley but that's just personal choice, good first effort.
      Not sure who Dawkins is but some mid rooks to consider are Sam Walsh, will definitely start round 1 but expensive at 200k, Michael Gibbons…also Carlton, similar scenario but cheap.
      Bewley from Freo, maybe Atkins from the Cats, Hind should start too.
      Not sure how Kreuzer's going injury wise but if you whacked Westhoff in R2, who could you afford in the fwd line then?
      Greene might be a cheap option.

  11. skindog says:

    Worpel on the rise! half time