Hey Community, Dave here.

I thought I’d do a little piece on low percentage selections in the forward line, specifically some more speculative ones. Some of the more popular forward selections come with multiple questions and what-if-isms *cough* Westhoff, Heeney, Gray, Dunkley *cough*.

This time of year, and all the way up to lockout you’ll hear “if he” SO. MANY. TIMES. You’ll say it, I’ll say it. It’ll drive you nuts thinking about it.

“If he plays more time in the midfield”, or “if he backs up his last half of 2018”, or “if he plays 22 games”.

If, if, IF.

The guys below really interest me (although none are in my current team… yet) as they’ve flown under the radar, been written off or not really considered and certainly not talked about.

Defence has been a focus in this price bracket for obvious reasons, with rule changes and multiple value selections, but I’d argue there’s plenty to like for your one make-or-break mid-pricer at that $420- $440k price point in the forward line.

Jack Billings – 2% Ownership

2018: 80.6 from 21 games

This. F*cking. Guy.

I had him, you had him, we all had him and the agony he brought, but here’s the stat: 92.7 from his last 9 games.

He averaged 92.7 from 22 games in 2017 and was tagged with the potential to go again in 2018. A poor start, role changes and poor form around him hurt his scoring.

Could this be his year? I certainly think he’s better than his 80.6 last year and with some more support around him could easily push that up to 90-95 in 2019.

What’s the question for young Jack you ask?

How many games will the Saints win?

  • 4 wins in 2018 =                                80.6
  • 11 wins in 2017 =                              92.7

If you think they can put up 8 wins or more he’d have to be considered. It’s not as tenuous a link as it looks… Billings is a guy who scores well in winning games, even close games.

He averaged 107.6 in victories (including his 85 in a draw against GWS) in 2018 and 100.3 in winning games in 2017.

The Saints have a reasonable draw and Billings is another year in the system and more mature. He certainly eclipses the 80.6, but by how much? Who’s ready for the Billings roller-coaster circa 2019?

[EDITOR’S NOTE: Patch is absolutely onboard the Billings train. Choo choo!]

Tom Lynch – 6% Ownership

2018: 78.4 from 10 games

Hmmm… while Tom Lynch’s ownership is mostly hopeful Tigers fans, here’s the stat: 85.1 from 19 games in 2017 & 93.2 from 22 games in 2016.

We don’t like key forwards.

Well, we’re trained not to like them. Buddy is always the exception, though maybe not this year. I tossed up JJK for this article, but after looking through injuries and form issues, I had to put a line through him.

Big Thomas is an interesting one.

The potential is huge. He’s going from the equivalent of the Sandy VFL to vengeful Tigers outfit that will give him 12 more inside 50’s a game and inside 50’s from some elite midfielders.

How many goals will he kick? After 66 goals in 2016 led to an average of 92.3 , you’d think he kicks 60-70 in yellow and black. However, working up the ground and being a more mature forward in a winning team with increased inside 50’s, he’d go 95-100 in 2019.

He’s coming back from PCL surgery, is recovering well and fully expected to play round 1, but he still may be a wait and see and if he comes out firing in the first few he’ll be hard to go past.

Jade Gresham – 1% Ownership

2018: 79.1 from 22 games

No bullshit for this one.

There’s a lot to like about this kid. He’s another Saint, but one that isn’t as impacted by the Saints ladder position. He is rock solid fit and has played back to back 22 game seasons. In the last 12 rounds of 2018 he put up a 95.4 average.

Yes, Dunkley put up 111.3 over his last 10, but he also has never played a full season and isn’t guaranteed to play the same role again in 2019. That’s not a knock on the Dunkley selection, I think he’s under-priced, but not 111.3 under-priced, even as a midfielder (that’s a Lachie Neale average by the way).

Gresham really had a year split in two, averaging 66.2 in his first nine games and 95.4 in his final 12, where he played a more midfield-centric role and it translated to almost a 30-point differential. Not much else to say, he has the talent, Richo likes him in the guts and he’s on the rise;

Will he play in the Saints midfield?

  • 2017: 66.3 from 22 games
  • 2018: 79.1 from 22 games
  • 2019: 95-100??

My (substantial) gut tells me Gresham is a better pick than Dunkley, for 3 reasons: he’s durable, he’s $90k cheaper and he will play in the midfield.

It’s not going to be a popular selection, but may be one that frees up $90k for you to spend elsewhere.

Thanks for reading Community, let me know what you think below!

Subscribe FREE to Jock's email alerts



Categories: Supercoach

newest oldest most voted
Notify of
dontblushbaby
Guest
dontblushbaby

Thanks Dave for opening up another forum , I agree Gresham could have a breakout, however like most I have Danger,Smith & Heeney locked in , if I was to put him at F4 I would have to take out Z.Williams at D4 and I believe he has more upside imo

Dave
Guest
Dave

No worries dbb, agreed, I wouldn't do that swap either tbh.

James
Guest
James

Hi Dave,

What are your thoughts on Jack Viney at ~450k?

Dave
Guest
Dave

Hey James,

He's a tough one, you'd have to really like him because honestly I'd rather go up to Sloane, Merrett or Crouch. He's certainly under priced, but I don't see him as pushing that 110 mark and I doubt you get 22 games out of him. Maybe a slider for your draft team?

neil demons delight
Guest

Hey Dave Great choice and well thought out. Gresham merits some thought particularly with increased mid time but I have opted for Viney myself. You are spot on. Merrett and Crouch are better but we dont always have the coin. I am currently exploring Zac Bailey as that next mid pricer 275 k and change of role Also gives me175 k to upgrade to better rookies Gibbons to walsh and a few obvious non starters,risky but maybe worth it great work Dave NDD

Nice person
Guest
Nice person

You'd still take gibbons surely

Sharkmove_King
Guest
Sharkmove_King

Think he means Gibbons upto Walsh in the 22.

neil demons delight
Guest

correct

Dave
Guest
Dave

Hey NDD,

Thanks mate, it's tough trying to find a balance across your lines. I'd 100% start Gibbons and potentially Meadows (not completely sure on the spelling) will come through the Hawks SSP selection and just about selects himself. If you're going Walsh I'd upgrade one of your other rookies.

RealStory
Guest
RealStory

Excellent write up Dave I hadn't really looked at any of those blokes before this, thanks mate.
Billings and Gresham both interest me maybe Gresham a bit more than Billings but, Tom Lynch nah/yeah/nah I really want to see what happens with him and Jack I wont be suprised to see a few eye injuries in the tigers cheer squad due to dummy's being spat at terminal velocity. Can a decade long #1 target with a fantastic on field ego accept being 2nd string?

CensoredStory
Guest
CensoredStory

Excellent write up Dave I hadn't really looked at any of those blokes before this, thanks mate.
Billings and Gresham both interest me maybe Gresham a bit more than Billings but, Tom Lynch nah/yeah/nah I really want to see what happens with him and Jack I wont be suprised to see a few eye injuries in the tigers cheer squad due to dummy's being spat at terminal velocity. Can a decade long #1 target with a fantastic on field ego accept being 2nd string?

AFL Blues
Guest
AFL Blues

Hey, mind your language… -.-

Dave
Guest
Dave

Apologies Blues, I'll mind my passion!

Krups
Guest
Krups

No need to apologise mate. Some people need to harden up

Will
Guest
Will

Gresham did not average 95 in his last 12 or the last 12 rounds?

Will
Guest
Will

He averaged 85 in his last 12 and that whole average was generated by 6 weeks of domination.

Dunkley averaged 115 in his last 9 and 127 in his last 6

Dave
Guest
Dave

Sorry Will, that's my bad, Gresham was 90.3 in his last 10.

Sharkmove_King
Guest
Sharkmove_King

That's alright Dave, a good friend of mine once said 'Dont let the truth get in the way of a good story'

Dave
Guest
Dave

Thanks mate, I'm still trying to figure which spreadsheet I grab that from! Too many stats and too much research!

Mystic_Mac
Guest
Mystic_Mac

Thoughts on Nic Newman community? Should see a lot more of it at Carlton.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Hey Mac,

He's becoming more interesting as the days go by. From the reports Williamson hasn't been out on the track as yet, so Newman is really becoming a serious JLT watch. The question down back will really be how many of these mid-priced guys can you fit in? There are some interesting guys around his price: Hibberd, Weller, Williams, Saad, Ellis, Houli and McGrath, that will be big JLT watches too.

Mystic_Mac
Guest
Mystic_Mac

Hey Dave,

Yes, you make a good point. Roberton may also be one to watch in JLT, at a very cheap price.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Yeah absolutely Mac,

I think the concerns for him playing a more lock-down type role are valid, especially with the 6-6-6 structure and the Saints lack of fit KP backs.

A whole lot of unknowns around what the scope for kick-ins will look like too, and how many do we try and fit in, it's definitely on top of my JLT watch list.

Tyruddanaut
Guest
Tyruddanaut

Carlton doesn't have a whole lot to do with it ngl. If he does play an intercepting role off half-back, then he will score well, but Simpson is expected to occupy one of the flanks for the majority of the season and Cunningham and Williamson should find themselves getting games. O'Brien, Thomas and Petrevski Seton might also move back into that free half-back role for a good percentage of the game. I don't see Newman averaging more than last year, I think that's about on par. If no-one had the bias of picking him in his rookie season, where there… Read more »

UpBeat
Guest
UpBeat

Quite a few spots left in this league, only SC's who fight till the end. code 165630

Great fact hunt
Guest
Great fact hunt

Hi upbeat, joined in hope ok. I am hooked and will play to the end. Cheers

UpBeat
Guest
UpBeat

No probs mate good luck

Lazza
Guest
Lazza

Hey UB, I’ve joined your league… team is Raw Tiger

UpBeat
Guest
UpBeat

Hey Lazza welcome good luck

Holty01
Guest
Holty01

Awesome work Dave. Very good reading

Dave
Guest
Dave

Thanks Holty, appreciate it mate!

Nice person
Guest
Nice person

Well done Dave, about time we saw some decent content. T lynch is very tempting

The Ranger
Guest
The Ranger

Onya Dave, thanks for the post.
Not as a starter but T.Lynch is def on the radar.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Thanks Ranger,

Definitely agree, I'd be more positive on him if he had a full pre-season, he's a potential upgrade target. Though I can only see the 6-6-6 structure helping him and other KP forwards.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Hey Ranger,

Thank you, cheers! He's a very interesting proposition, love to see what the 6-6-6 structure does for him.

John
Guest
John

Witherden, Roberton, Miles, Witts and Greene are my current midpricers. Is that too many for a single team?

John
Guest
John

Scratch Witts, meant to just say the other 4

Dave
Guest
Dave

Hey John,

There's plenty of risk there, what's your back up strategy if one or two don't work out? Greene and Roberton probably hold the most risk, so maybe go with one rather than both. I keep coming back to Guns and Rookies setup, with Witho and Williams my mid-priced risks.

Lazza
Guest
Lazza

That’s extreme … you daredevil Dave … 🙂 Fairly solid choices, rather than high risk I’d say

Xman
Guest
Xman

As a saints fan just to touch on Gresham, I wouldn’t say he will play midfield. Our starting midfield will be Ross, Steven & Steele. There will be multiple players rotating through there including Gresham and billing’s. But if your banking on him to play a good chunk of midfield time I would say that’s a bad call. We need him to kick goals.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Hey Xman,

Yep, can see him in a group of 3 or 4 guys that rotate through there. He fits the Dahlhaus/McLean mould and could easily push the 90-100.

Pete
Guest
Pete

Hmmm I understand he's a handy forward but you should have Bruce back this year and kicking goals and I think he could do more damage as a mid than Billings could (maybe Billings will play more forward), he definitely gives your midfield something different. Won't be Among the top 3 for centre bounce attendances with Ross, Steven and Steele in there but he could be 4th in line and play about 50-60% midfield in my opinion depending on what you choose to do. Definitely has the skill by foot that the others don't

Ja191
Guest
Ja191

Legend Dave, thanks for the article! Great read

Dave
Guest
Dave

Thanks Ja, cheers mate!

Prizza
Guest
Prizza

Great to have a write-up, good job easy to see who has there noses out of joint with negative feedback, always looking to shit-can ???.
Lynch on mine as well.

Nice person
Guest
Nice person

Havnt seen negative feedback on this thread

Prizza
Guest
Prizza

I can give you 66 reasons why

Rabbits16
Guest
Rabbits16

i see what you did there hahahaha

Such is Fyfe
Guest
Such is Fyfe

Looking to fill the last 8 spots in a $100 buy-in cash league.
Email [email protected] for details

Prize structure as follows:
18 entrants x $100 fee = $1,800 prize pool as follows.

Champion – $625
Runners up – $300

Minor premier – $100
Highest score of the year – $100
Consolidation award (Winner of Bottom 8) – $100

$25 weekly to the highest score of the week, in the unlikely event the highest score of the week is tied both will be paid $25 and the latter comes off the champion’s prize end of season = $25 x 23 = $575

Sharkmove_King
Guest
Sharkmove_King

T.Lynch is one half of the SHARKMOVE 2019……. Seriously consider him for a cheeky VC on Thursday Night Round 1. Yes, yes I know Martin & Cripps are playing the same game, but just check out Lynch's record against Carlton…..They are his biatches!!!

Sharkmove_King
Guest
Sharkmove_King

As far as the other 2 go, I won't pick Gresham for the same reason I (probably) won't pick Robbie Gray- They are 2 good in the fwd50 and won't get enough time in the middle.

Billings No for the exact reasons you touched on. In a good team he would average ~100, but St.Kilda will struggle again this season imo

TRIGGA_HAPPY
Guest
TRIGGA_HAPPY

Was going to go Darling up fwd but with Quaynor impressing for the pies and firming for rd 1 need some cash to bring him in so Gresham gets the job done.

he is my breakout candiate …

GloryDays94
Guest
GloryDays94

Him and Taranto could be breakouts. Will be interesting to watch

NoLanguage96
Guest
NoLanguage96

Of those only Lynch could tempt me. Solid write up though good job mate!

Dave
Guest
Dave

Thanks NL96, he is so tempting. But hard to slot in! Cheers

Michael
Guest
Michael

Wouldn't call T Adams mid price but at 523k and in only 2% of teams I'll be taking a punt. Apparently burning the track as well at training.

Holty01
Guest
Holty01

I’ve heard the same Michael but I’m not brave enough to select him

Pete
Guest
Pete

The whole pies midfield sounds like it will be one giant rotation and all will lose midfield time with the arrival of Beams.

Prizza
Guest
Prizza

Hey Mick, he just doesn't stop putting in, when others are stopping he will keep going, thought long and hard about him and still musing.
Remember the new rules will aid the fittest this year.

Shake_n_bake
Guest
Shake_n_bake

Has probably been our best ball winner so far over the pre season

TommyC99
Guest
TommyC99

Cheers Dave, Up until i read this hadn't even thought about Gresham but is now definitely on my radar!

Dave
Guest
Dave

Thanks Tommy, of the forwards he is one to keep a close eye on. I'm also extremely keen to see what the 6-6-6 does for KPFs like Lynch, Darling, JJK and Brown.

Russty_
Guest
Russty_

Nice article Dave, I thought Lynch was still a fair ways off?…he could definitely be one to jump on I think if he comes out of the blocks well, would like to see his first 2 games before I do though.
I've considered a lot of midpricers over the past weeks but have ended up with 3 and all in the backline…I reckon Gresham will do well this year though.
Billings, I thankfully kicked to the kerb early last year and didn't regret it, he's a never again-er for me.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Thanks Rusty,

He's "pushing" for round 1 according to our trusty news outlets. But you're right, he could be a correction trade before round 3 or an upgrade at the byes. Yep, the value is definitely down back and certainly see a lot of teams going to D4 and even D5 with either of Williams or Smith. The sad fact about Billings is that we'll all miss him when he does breakout, too many chances!

BillyGoatGruff
Guest
BillyGoatGruff

Has Lynch ever played alongside a Coleman winning forward before? It'll be interesting to see the dynamic so many questions to answered regarding team habits etc a few dummies might hit the turf early on as well. Too many variables for me to go anywhere near him.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Hey BGG,

Yep, fair enough mate. He definitely hasn't played alongside a Coleman Winner, but it may actually help him. I'd see him more up the ground with Riewoldt as the stay at home FF. but they will mix it up and throw Caddy in there too, when he's back.

dontblushbaby
Guest
dontblushbaby

The AFL Website has an up to date Injury List by Club, some on there that you may not be aware of or where they are at

Shake_n_bake
Guest
Shake_n_bake

Longer to miss start of the season with a hamstring

Gen
Guest
Gen

Pearce Hanley. just under 300k
Thoughts??