G’day community, JB here with my first Jock Reynolds article, so please be kind. I’m going to kick things off by exploring the tantalising Supercoach option that is Matt Crouch.

At $551,300 Crouch has Supercoach pig written all over him. 2018 was a year to forget for the Adelaide Crows and a large slide down the ladder ensued amidst the chaos of the infamous preseason camp, soft tissue injuries and form slumps.

Crouch was not immune to these factors as the gun Adelaide midfielder pulled his hamstring early in their round two clash against Richmond (after scoring 51 supercoach points in the first quarter).

However, Crouch still managed to average 32 disposals and 102 points across eighteen games (105 true average after removing his injury affected 51) throughout 2018 and I’m confident with a full preseason he will average 110+ in 2019 and here is why.

THE GOOD

Adelaide will perform significantly better than last season and subsequently Crouch will also improve his supercoach performance. In 2017 when Adelaide were red hot, Crouch had a breakout year averaging 111 scoring fifteen tons which included a purple patch where Crouch scored twelve 100+ scores during a thirteen-game streak.

Crouch is a consistent performer and a closer look at his numbers show that during the last 50 games of his career (Since round 15 2016) the midfielder has averaged 106. The perennial ball winner has a history of scoring large too, during this fifty-game period (post 21st birthday) Crouch has racked up 32 scores of 100+ including sixteen scores of 120+.

Year Average -80 100+ 120+ Games
2018 102 2 12 4 18
2017 111 3 15 9 22
2016 (Post Bye) 101 1 5 3 10
Totals 106 6 32 16 50

Delving deeper into Crouch’s numbers raises an interesting point for consideration. Crouch’s post bye scores are phenomenal, consistently producing a high output post bye.

His post bye average over the last three years is 112 which includes a remarkable twenty-one tons from 29 games and thirteen 120+ scores. This is a consideration for both overall scoring and bragging rights in your league as you know Crouch will deliver during your finals campaign.

Post bye Year Average sub-80   100+   120+  Games
2018 110 0 7 3 9
2017 125 0 9 7 10
2016 101 1 5 3 10
Totals 112 1 21 13 29

THE BAD

Crouch is a high possession player who plays a largely outside role for his team which is not necessarily a bad thing, but when you combine this with a disposal efficiency of just 69.7 per cent last season, it means that Crouch needs to have a high volume of possessions to score well.

This is highlighted by the fact that in 2018 when Crouch had below 33 disposals his average was 95 compared to games where Crouch won 33 or more and his average increased to 112.  Crouch’s contested possession percentage and tackle numbers are lower than the AFL averages for midfielders as a result of this role.

Crouch has a history of limited offensive impact. Crouch has only 19 goals and 34 goal assists during his 90-game career. The other factor to consider is that Crouch only averages around 76 per cent time on ground – although he does average 32.5 disposals a game over the last two seasons.

THE VERDICT

Taking all of this into consideration I believe Matt Crouch is set for a big 2019. As I mentioned earlier, I am bullish about Adelaide rediscovering their form this season.

I think subsequently Crouch will replicate his 2017 form and if he can increase his disposal efficiency potentially exceed it. A set and forget premium option that will not let you down.

What do you think, community?

-JB


79 Comments

Maverick_ · 18/02/2019 at 12:51

Lock 🔐 hasn’t moved from my M5 since SC opened.

Great write up JB 🙂

    paul · 18/02/2019 at 14:37

    I agree always been my M5 too locked in.

    JB_12 · 18/02/2019 at 16:43

    Cheers mate 🙂

    Had him at m4 when SC opened
    Currently at m5 but will depend on team structure as to where he ends up.

GloryDays94 · 18/02/2019 at 13:04

Lock 🔒🔒

Undypuncher · 18/02/2019 at 13:31

Both crouches are to injury pro n e for my liking

    Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 18:40

    Brad is…Matt isn't.

Krups · 18/02/2019 at 13:37

In at M5 but will be removed if there is even talk of a headache

JohnDJ59 · 18/02/2019 at 13:40

Locked at M4 since my first draft.

The Ranger · 18/02/2019 at 13:58

Thanks for the write up JB.
It's that 33 disposals for 95pts bit that puts me off him.
I can't start with him but I'll be looking at picking him up around the byes if he's traveling well.

    JB_12 · 18/02/2019 at 18:51

    No worries mate.

    He did average 32.5 disposals last year.
    Which has the 13 disposal one quarter game included.

    If he can maintain those disposal numbers in a healthy and in form team I think his disposal efficiency increases and he averages 110.

    Not the worst idea to try and jump on mid season but at this point I'm not risking him being 600k and not in my team

      Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 19:18

      Yeah nice work JB…I forgot to mention before, I've got him locked away too, prefer him over Dusty who can be lazy early in seasons and lose mucho dollars.

skindog · 18/02/2019 at 16:03

His body will let you down, same as his brother, no go zone,,

    Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 18:39

    Only missed 6 games in 3 years though Skindawgy..he ain't his bro.

AuroraBorealis?! · 18/02/2019 at 16:31

Great write-up JB!

This bloke is locked in my side so long as his preseason is free of injury

derek · 18/02/2019 at 17:18

i remember last year seeing an interview with Gibbs when he just moved to the Crows, he couldn't get over how easily Matt Crouch could find the ball.

He is currently in my team, the only concern i have is how many points his brother might take from him. Although i do recall they played ok together.

RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 17:26

Thanks for efforts and picking up the dropped ball JB-12 but I think you're a little bit biased in your evaluation
When I evaluate players for SC I don't delete their lowest scores and justify it by saying they were injury affected.
To get the REAL STORY on potential keeper mids you should divide their total SC points for the season by the number of rounds in a season because SC doesn't pause until your keepers get better after injury. Based on that scenario Crouch only averaged 83 p/week for those who started with him last year over the last 3 seasons these are his first 8-round averages (if he didn't play he scored 0)
2016 first 8-rounds – 75.6
2017 first 8-rounds – 95.7
2018 first 8-rounds – 84.4
So, it's basically a Hail-Mary/crazy move to start M.Crouch in your SC team for an extra $400 up to 20k you can take your pick from Jelwood, Ward,Bont,Dusty,Pendle,Sidey OR if you want to spend up to 15k less you can get Brayshaw, Heeney or little Zach Merrett

    Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 18:00

    So are you saying that every game a player misses through injury / suspension ..whatever should be included in their season's average?
    That's not the way it is though..you don't count a game a guy hasn't played..only the ones he has played.
    Total Supercoach points divided by number of games played.
    I'll be picking him because he's a gun and can go large and often.

    His actual averages were
    2016 first 8-rounds – 76.5
    2017 first 8-rounds – 95.8
    2018 first 8-rounds – 94.0..missed 3 games ( not counted in reality)
    But he does generally finish well….which is where the average lifts.

      RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 20:09

      Nice write up Rusty but that is how it is. The total points scored by a player that you have all season are all added up and form part of your total score. How could you not know that? If the season is 23 rounds with 1 bye that means every player that you started with has been in your team for 22 games if he doesn't play he doesn't score points so he gets a zero but you don't delete a round from the total games in a season to compensate for it.
      This is why so many SC players stagnate and never really challenge for a top 100 finish, it's the number of points that a player scores in a season that is relevant not his average.
      If player x averages 150 but only plays 12 games and player y only averages 100 and plays all 22 games then player Y is 400 points better than player x despite his p/game average being 33% or 50% worse (depending on whether you base on x or y)

      He might be worth a look after the byes but hasn't ever shown anything to suggest to me that he's a great starting option

        Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 20:29

        Sorry to burst your bubble but no player was ever scored contributing to their average, on a game they didn't play….averages only count for games they HAVE PLAYED…if you believe otherwise, you are completely wrong.

        For someone who seems to know a fair bit about Footy, not sure where you got that theory from?
        Not trying to embarrass you or anything but how could you possibly arrive at that conclusion?
        "every player that you started with has been in your team for 22 games if he doesn't play he doesn't score points so he gets a zero but you don't delete a round from the total games in a season to compensate for it. "
        This is incorrect I'm afraid, you might have your wires crossed, only games played contribute towards a player's average, not games missed…ever.

          RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 21:28

          Your 1st paragraph??? when did I say that? what I said is "The total points scored by a player that you have all season are all added up and form part of your total score." Maybe read it again without the angry eyes mate

          RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 21:31

          Obviously my philosophy and strategy is different to the majority but that's OK I normally rank higher than 99% of Supercoach players and there has to be a reason for it other than luck.
          No need to attack me for having a different philosophy to you mate. That's very anti-social and quite immature

            Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 21:42

            Where did you get the idea that I was attacking you?…I was actually trying to be very polite in my responses. sorry you didn't take it that way.
            I'm sorry but I can't see how you've done better than 99% of supercoach players in the past when you don't understand the basic rules of what constitutes an average.
            All I quoted from what you said was this….
            "every player that you started with has been in your team for 22 games if he doesn't play he doesn't score points so he gets a zero but you don't delete a round from the total games in a season to compensate for it. " (this is what you said)
            And I stand by what I said in the first post, you're completely wrong.
            It's not a philosophy or a different way of thinking, it's wrong from how it actually is….in reality. Period.
            I'm just trying to help you, because you seem to be delusional, and overly defensive, when there's no need to be.

            No one's angry here mate, maybe you need to stop accusing people of being "angry"…under your 10 different names?

              RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 21:54

              You're either deliberately misinterpreting what I wrote to provoke an argument or you have genuine problems with comprehension. Hopefully it's the second option.

                Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 22:06

                I'm not mis-interpreting anything….you said it yourself, "you don't delete a round from the total games in a season to compensate for it"….NEWS FLASH….yes you do!…why would you include a game in anyone's average if they didn't play the game?
                The only games that count in a player's average are THE GAMES THEY PLAY.
                I'll accept your apology on gold leafed framed paper with gold infused ink.

                  RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 22:22

                  Surely what you meant to say was "Who's that trip trapping over my bridge?"

                    INP · 18/02/2019 at 22:57

                    Hahahaha Classic

                    Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 23:13

                    Yeah right…Pieman's not here anymore, so no need to try to impersonate him…along with all your other banned identities.

                    Intel Design · 20/02/2019 at 20:38

                    What happened to Pieman? Has he left Supercoach for good?

                    Russty_ · 22/02/2019 at 21:26

                    You really think you're the Goat knocking the Troll off of the bridge?….you are the troll.

              RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 22:03

              This site needs a Billy-Goat-Gruff to deal with the likes of you.

                Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 22:21

                I don't even know what that means…are you 75?…the likes of me?…lol..I'm just telling you the facts, sorry if you can't deal with the way it actually is.

                Great fact hunt · 19/02/2019 at 22:56

                Hi real story. Your theory makes sense as you do not want to have injury prone players in your team however the games that he doesn’t play you will generally scores at least sixty odd from your bench players. Therefore you would have to put crouch down for at least that amount for the games he does not play. This would give you a true indication. If he is long term injured you would waste a trade which is another issue. Risk v reward. Cheers

                Russty_ · 22/02/2019 at 21:25

                Yep ok…I guess that's why you changed your name to Billy Goat Gruff, and then Billy Goat this week……why don't you just start an account with one name?…is it because you were already banned from here so many times?

    ToughBretts · 18/02/2019 at 18:05

    In my opinion this is the wrong way to approach it. Injuries happen, the VAST majority of players do not play 22 games a year.
    You pick the guys who score the most per game and hope they get as many games as possible. Obviously you take into account if a player is injury prone and you don't think they're capable of playing a 20-game season, but Matt Crouch has played 60 home & away season games over the past three years, which puts him in the upper-echelon for reliability.

      RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 20:21

      Last year
      39 mids
      27 defs
      9 rucks
      36 fwds
      Played every game. If you started with twelve of them you had a significant advantage over players who didn't

      Obviously my philosophy and strategy is different to the majority but that's OK I normally rank higher 99% of Supercoach players and there has to be a reason for it other than luck

        Sharkmove_King · 18/02/2019 at 20:33

        I see what what you're saying, but he should at least get your M9 average score for games missed (which is about 70-75) You do get a chance to replace him, with another player.

        I'm not a big fan of taking out injury effected scores from injury prone players, particularly if it's soft tissue or reaccuring. When Kade Simpson got his jaw broken about 5 years ago, I'm more than happy to take that out.

          RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 22:13

          Yes you get your emergency score and obviously the 0(or non-score) isn't included in the players average but as you pointed out the M9emergency score isn't usually anywhere near what your regular M5 would have scored.
          When I assess players for starting positions I look at how many points they scored last year before I look at their average. I believe that the total points scored is a greater indication of their value. Russty_ thinks I'm wrong for doing that but I reckon he thinks that everybody who doesn't agree with him is wrong.

            Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 22:19

            Not at all RS you poor persecuted victim, I just believe an actual average is an actual average and anything else is just a theory…fair enough?

    TRIGGA_HAPPY · 18/02/2019 at 18:13

    Different way to look at things but using the above logic assumes every player has 100% TOG.

    Need to take TOG or PPM into account to reveal the real story.

      RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 20:37

      PPM and TOG are important in assessing players during preseason games where players often only play a half or limited minutes each quarter. When it comes to the real thing it's total points that matter and PPM are virtually irrelevant unless a trade-target player is being managed back from injury.
      I had more to say on the subject but once again admin is interfering

      Realstoriesblocked · 18/02/2019 at 20:38

      sorry mate admin wont let me respond

        skindog · 18/02/2019 at 21:35

        Shouldnt be blocked for having a great and genuine opinion Real, seems if you differ or stray from "The herd", you get deleted and or banned, what do you call that? a DICKtatorship???

          RealStory · 18/02/2019 at 22:00

          Thanks Skindog. I think it may have had something to do with the way I wrote time on ground and points per minute or some other unknown rule that I broke. Yeah differing opinions aren't very popular here are they?

            Russty_ · 18/02/2019 at 22:15

            Haha you poor victim…pretty obvious now who skindog really is, had my suspicions about that previously,
            Maybe it was more based on, that your post isn't really based in reality…theory-wise.
            Anyways…good to know…good luck with your great and genuine opinions lol

              Skindog · 19/02/2019 at 06:14

              Who I really am? Sorry Rusty, don’t follow, I just think people are allowed opinions and shouldn’t be ridiculed for it, but tell me who I am because I think you have me mixed up, been in here for years, on and off, but never changed my name,

                Skindog · 19/02/2019 at 17:30

                I actually think I know who you are too! Don’t know why there are games being played, I’ve done nothing wrong, but you Rusty remind me of someone who use to be here but isn’t anymore!

                  Russty_ · 22/02/2019 at 21:21

                  I know who I am mate, because I've always had the same account here ever since I came here…and I still do, I'm not a multiple personality multiple account faking loser like those two whose opinions you think are so great and genuine.

                Russty_ · 22/02/2019 at 21:19

                You seem to be a fanboy of those two Skindog….if you're not you sure seem like one, if you've never changed your name then there's someone else using your name to make posts.
                Why don't you make an intense debate account so we don't have to guess.

              GloryDays94 · 19/02/2019 at 17:53

              It's alright Russty we all know it's 66 and Wow 👍😂

                Skindog · 19/02/2019 at 18:25

                Glory, I hope you’re not referring to me as 66 or Wow??

                  skindog · 19/02/2019 at 19:27

                  Think Rusty might be a conspiracy theorist

                  Russty_ · 22/02/2019 at 21:31

                  Yep he was …does that surprise you?…you seem to condone all the nasty shit they say.

        Russty_ · 22/02/2019 at 21:29

        Is that because you change your name every 5 minutes?…realstory, realstories, realstoriesblocked, real this, real that….66, Wow….whatever, you're sad.

      Realstoriesblocked · 18/02/2019 at 20:39

      PPM and TOG are important in assessing players during preseason games where players often only play a half or limited minutes each quarter. When it comes to the real thing it's total points that matter and PPM are virtually irrelevant unless a trade-target player is being managed back from injury.

      Realstoriesblocked · 18/02/2019 at 20:39

      points per minute are important in assessing players during preseason games where players often only play a half or limited minutes each quarter. When it comes to the real thing it's total points that matter and PPM are virtually irrelevant unless a trade-target player is being managed back from injury.

    Derek · 18/02/2019 at 22:30

    Simplist thing is to call it what it is. If it there average for the games they played, call it that. I see that as the best way to compare as a starter. You then factor in the number of games you think they will play, maybe adding in a 60 for the bench player for every game to be missed. Past games is only an indicator of future games.

    I don’t think anyone seriously thinks their players are going to miss games during the year.

    Crouch did a hamstring round 2 last year. Will he do a hamstring this year? You can’t answer that.

    paul · 19/02/2019 at 12:31

    You are talking trends .Yes over the last three years starting with M .Crouch it has taken him a few rounds to get going.He has always finished strong. Interesting. I my now looking at player trends.

      paul · 19/02/2019 at 12:44

      What i have notices analyzing this is most players start better with age increase.With M Crouch he has stayed the same over the last three years for the first 8 rounds.but you would want to have him in your side after the bye rounds. I agree.

        Brandon Cole · 19/02/2019 at 23:34

        Matt Crouch

        Pre Bye: 96.24 from 21 (10/21 below 100, 3/21 120+)

        2017: 98.5 from 12

        2018: 93.22 from 9

        Post Bye: 117.95 from 19 (3/19 below 100, 10/19 120+)

        2017: 125.2 from 10

        2018: 109.89 from 9

        Note* not my info, I copied this from another site

    Max · 10/03/2019 at 22:40

    Dude, what the hell are you on? You divide the amount of points that a player scores by the amount of games they play, surely that's obvious. It's ridiculous to divide it by the amount of games in a season, as clearly if a player misses a game then they score 0, and then you're bringing down the average of a player even though it's impossible for them to score if they aren't playing. Nat Fyfe scored 1708 SC points in 15 games last year, averaging 113.9. By your logic, he actually averaged 77.6. Which is both untrue and ridiculous. A player can only score in games that he plays. Therefore, to work out his average, you divide the amount of points he scores by the amount of games he plays, whether that's 5 games, 15 games, or 22 games. That gives you an idea of how good a scorer he is. What a ridiculous philosophy to have.

Dukes · 18/02/2019 at 18:26

I’ve gone Zach Merrett over him

Undefeated · 18/02/2019 at 21:14

He's a lock for me. Too much value to pass up on for his potential output. The crows 2018 season was a write off. Will push for top 4 this year!

    skindog · 18/02/2019 at 21:36

    No they wont, got no heart

      Derek · 18/02/2019 at 22:34

      Eddie is still getting a game.

Lostlarrikin · 19/02/2019 at 00:11

Great article.
Like it or loathe it, RealStory has some wise words (tact and delivery could perhaps use some refinement).
RS is referring to PIT (points in team) avg.
There is huge benefit in choosing players in your starting team who can pump out 20-22 games.
Durability is king.
The sages from SCS will lead u to the light.

Ktfg · 19/02/2019 at 06:52

It's down to dusty or crouch at m5
Thoughts?

    skindog · 19/02/2019 at 19:32

    Dusty for me mate,

    Stirlsy · 20/02/2019 at 00:43

    Dusty for me too, didn't have him last year and that proved to be the right play, but my gut says start him this year.
    Crouch ill take a look at him around the byes.

kevwal · 19/02/2019 at 10:02

I have thoroughly enjoyed the debate so far, will now assess my picked keepers as per points generated over games played and TOG. Plenty of time to do the research prior to kick off. Suspect I haven't been far wrong using averages, predicted averages and gut feel.

Rick · 19/02/2019 at 10:40

He's in the Andrew Gaff mould. He needs 45 possies to score 120

    GloryDays94 · 19/02/2019 at 17:53

    Yet will score 100 plus most weeks while others have crap games.

      Skindog · 19/02/2019 at 18:26

      Until he king hits someone then out for a few?

        skindog · 19/02/2019 at 21:16

        Was talking about Gaff!????? jesus you blokes are unreal, quick to have a go? you must win every year?? like the little girl said to Hodgey when she presented him his premiership medal, " you;re my hero"

          GloryDays94 · 19/02/2019 at 21:38

          1: why reply to my comment when I was talking about crouch not Gaff
          2: we are not quick to have a go, you are just a huge soon
          3: I don't win every year and could not care less if I do 👍👍

            Skindog · 19/02/2019 at 22:50

            1. I was replying to the Gaff comment🖕🏻
            2. Yes you are quick to have a go, I’ve been watching this for a while now,
            3. I know you don’t win every year so stop acting like you know everything and being a flog!!

              GloryDays94 · 19/02/2019 at 22:53

              The only ones acting like they know everything is you and your mate real story 😂. Both of you flogs should just p#ss off and then everything will be fine

TommyC99 · 20/02/2019 at 11:59

Is currently locked in my team but those stats about his pre bye form are very interesting indeed. I think he starts better than previous seasons as adelaide have a point to prove, how much better thought is the question.

Lazza · 20/02/2019 at 23:21

No way I’d start with Crouch.. upgrade target post bye for me … the Crows making the 8 is no way certain, so I don’t expect to see many Crow players in the top 40 SC scorers.. Laird the only safe bet.. will be interesting to see how they go in the JLT..

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