Hey folks, welcome back to Supercoach 2019! We sat down and answered some of the most frequently asked Supercoach questions we’ve received over the break for your viewing pleasure. Let’s get into it!
Patch: I TOLD YOU NOT TO MENTION CHADLEY. AAAARRGGGHHHHHHHH. No no no no NO.
Q: Does Dangerfield have to be at F1 or can he start in the midfield to assist with positional swinging early in the season?
Damo: I think he deserves that position just because he can go there. Be honest with yourselves too, how often did you use your positional swings before the bye rounds?
Kev: As they say, you never look a gift horse in the mouth. I don’t who ‘they’ are or what this means, but Danger is F1 until he does his hammy in a warm-up game
Lekdog: This question makes me angry, always load up the peripheral positions with an DPP’s before the midfield!
Patch: Just start him. I don’t care how you justify it, just start him.
Barron: There’s always fewer forward options than in the midfield, so any time you get a easy home run option you have to take it.
Q: Do you need a ruck loophole player, especially considering the amount of relevant ruck rookies and less prominent ruck/fwd swing options?
Damo: Loopholing is handy, but not essential. That’s all I’ll say about it.
Kev: If you’re going with a bit of midprice madness to start the year in your rucks and it backfires then having a forward loophole is a good insurance policy.
Lekdog: Nope! Lock in as much cash generation as possible and select solid captaincy options to start with. People get caught trading in loopholes early to chase larger captaincy scores but it’ll hurt you in the long run. Not to mention we always see rookies being dropped in round 3 for which will create that loophole for you!
Patch: Not unless you score more points from the swing set than you would otherwise. None of the DPPs look appealing enough to justify start them.
Barron: Given we won’t have Mitchell this year, who was the most consistent Captain option we’ve had in some time, I will consider it. Don’t force it though, i’m not a fan of picking a non-player for the sake of it, but if you can’t find cover (especially in rucks) then it’s a nice use of a non-playing player.
Q: Justin Westhoff, Rory Lobb, any other dual position ruckmen worth considering?
Damo: Rory Lobb looks good value, but it’s hard to predict output when a player is starting at a new club.
Kev: Will come down to how you build your team and your player research. If a swing player happens to be on your radar then back your gut and go for it, but don’t go chasing a DPP swing if you feel it’s not worth it.
Lekdog: Considering Lycett as a swing if I go with a cheapie ruckline…watch this space.
Patch: Firm no until we can see a rookie ruck who looks like we may need to cover. I don’t like stuffing around in the rucks.
Barron: Westhoff as a maybe. If he gets squeezed out of the Port forward line for Scott Lycett and plays a wing/floating defender role then he could be worth selecting. Lobb I will stay away from.
Q: There are lots of players returning from injury like Zac Williams, Brodie Smith, Toby Greene, and Brad Crouch with most of them around the 300-400k price tag. How many is too many?
Damo: You probably don’t want very many. Liberatore in 2018 went down seconds into the season and forced people to make 2 trades straight off the bat because his price was so awkward, you don’t want that.
Kev: As they say, ‘too many cooks spoils the broth’. I get this one as meaning to many ‘good’ things can bugger up your end result. What I saying is these discounted premiums might look good and shiny on the surface but scratch a bit deeper and they are Joe Denly-esque stink.
Lekdog: I’m taking the risk on a few midpricers but none of them will be in the midfield. You can afford to stuff around in the forward and backline, don’t cook the midfield.
Patch: What Lek said, provided they’re not Chad Wingard or Daniel Rich. Although I’ll permit one in the midfield.
Barron: It depends on who you see being a potential season long keeper in their position, the more you select the more you potentially have to upgrade. History tells us Brodie Smith isn’t a likely season long keeper, whereas Williams very well could be. To combine Smith and Brad Crouch maybe adds two future upgrades, Williams and Crouch might add one at most.
Q: Furthermore, how many midpricers (players not returning from injury) is too many?
Damo: What evidence do you have that your player will take the next step? If it’s a sound piece of evidence, then in the end it’s you taking the risk. However, I’d recommend only taking a punt on 1 or 2 despite how strong your evidence might be for more.
Kev: Pretty much what I said above. It’s super difficult to pick a breakout player. Don’t get sucked into the Herald Sun listicles. As always, gut instinct + your own research is the way to go.
Lekdog: Maybe one or two, very rarely do midpricers actually break out and have big years and most of the time you can jump on them just don’t let that FOMO (fear of missing out) get to you. If a bloke does look like he’s breaking out and you didn’t start with him, so what? You can still jump on if they have value to give.
Patch: I’d rather hedge your bets on a speculative premo than a mid-pricer. You can at least trade your way out of trouble if the premo goes balls up.
Barron: See above.
Q: How many, if any, premium priced rookies (e.g. Sam Walsh at 207k) do you start with?
Damo: You obviously want rookies on your field when round one comes along so it depends on rookie availability, but don’t start with very many at all if you can help it.
Kev: Zip. Zilch. Nada. Goose egg. A duck. Pop the kettle on and go read Barron’s reasoning as to why it’s a waste of precious cash.
Lekdog: None, read Barron’s article, he’s a genius.
Barron: As few as possible. If you’re looking for pure cash generation then a $207K rookie has to score 15-20 more points a game than a $123K rookie to generate the same amount of cash, while taking more out of your bank. See our previous Supercoach Investment 101 article here (http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2018/03/13/making-mad-cah-supercoach-investment-101/) for an example.
Q: Are there any Key Position Forwards worth looking at? If so, who and why?
Damo: Ben Brown will be the main man at North with Waite hanging up the boots, and North’s midfield acquisitions. Jack Gunston could be a safe option averaging at least 86 in the past five seasons, but his role might change with Mitchell now injured.
Kev: Last year we were kinda forced into the KPF route because there was stuff all else on the shelf. With plenty more MID/FWD options now I wouldn’t be starting with a KPF. See who benefits most from the new 6-6-6 stuff and go from there.
Lekdog: Maybe, but I’ll look at them during the season, not before it. Starting with a KPF is just asking for trouble.
Patch: None as of yet, although Tom Lynch intrigues me. They should all drop in price at some stage, so I’d start without them and pick cheapies up later.
Barron: Not unless his name is Buddy Franklin, and even then he has been questionable over the past couple of years.
Q: Dan Hannebery, Yes or No?
Kev: He’s cooked. Don’t care how early he’s returned to training or what a great role model he’ll be. When the real stuff starts he’ll get found out.
Patch: Absolutely not.
Barron: No for me.
Q: The JLT series can create an enigma when it comes to a players form, what advice do you have to not fall into any traps?
Damo: Don’t just look at the stats, look at the why they scored the stats they did. Assess all factors; position, teammates, opposition, etc.
Kev: If there’s one stat to look at over the preseason it’s PPM (points per minute), but there’s still plenty of other factors to take into account. No point locking Luke Partington into your midfield when West Coast have left half their side at home for a trip across the Nullarbor. He won’t get the same opportunities when the cattle returns.
Lekdog: For me it’s time spent in any given position but also taking into account whose missing from the side. Also important to note is that if a positional change in the preseason doesn’t work for someone i.e. playing Kade Simpson on a wing, the club will generally revert back to what DOES work very quickly i.e. not playing Kade Simpson on a wing…I guess I’m saying ignore the preseason.
Patch: Use it to justify players you’ve already identified and try not to pick someone based on JLT form. If you want to see a Clayton Oliver in a role and he scores 60 in a half, that’s what you want to see. If Shaun Atley averages 130 out of nowhere, ignore it.
Barron: Look who is in/out of the team, time on ground, players playing out of position etc. Hey, some young kid averaged 25 touches in the midfield over the JLT games. That’s great! But Star Midfielder A only played 50% of the game and wasn’t seen in the second half and Star Midfielder B spent all game forward. It can be tough to try asses a trial match as a real one, but there’s there’s a few things like that you can take into account to help.
Q: How deep is your love (for Premium Midfielders)?
Damo: Five or six. Did I answer this correctly?
Kev: Did… did Damo just chuck a Bee Gees reference into this article?? (No he did not – Damo) What is this? The middle ages?! For us in the cheap seats we haven’t had access to the team planner yet so we’ll see how things shake out once I’ve had a play around with it. With Titch out for the year it’s gonna be a pizza cake to go
balls 6 deep.
Lekdog: Four absolute jets plus one sneaky pick (Tim Taranto for me). Use the extra positions to generate cash!
Patch: I’m not sure yet, it’s very early to decide structure and will depend km where the rookies are. Probably five.
Barron: Depending on the strategy, a guns ‘n rookies would see you probably want 5-6. Less than 5 sees you probably taking a few risks on midpricers either recapturing form, or a younger player taking off in a big way.
Q: Slope theory suggests things fall apart much quicker than they build up. Which premium selection now has his best days behind him?
Damo: While I believe he had a down year in 2018 and will be better this season, Dustin Martin won’t have another 2017. Josh Kennedy of the Swans faces an uphill battle to return to his SuperCoach best too.
Kev: Nothing is jumping to mind but we love a ‘changing of the guard’ in SuperCoach. As they say, ‘out with old, in with the nucleus’. Pick the young bulls, but also… #FyfeIsLyfe
Lekdog: Scott Pendlebury…still capable of big scores but the team around him is just getting better…unlikely to average more than his 103 from 2018. You can fight me on this but he didn’t have a very good Finals run outside of his 11 tackle game in the Semi.
Patch: Lance Franklin. Will still have 160-point games, but far too many 40s and 50s. Sydney will struggle, too. He’d need to be 400k with a schmoozy run to tempt me again.
Barron: My favourite ruckman Sam Jacobs is now at the end and based on pre-season time trials may very well be taken over by Reilly O’Brien very soon. I’m not expecting a bounceback season for Sauce in 2019 (though I would love one).
Q: You can change the guernsey, but can you change the man? Will a change of scenery help players such as Chad Wingard get back to their previous best?
Damo: When a player goes to a new team, you really have to have faith that they have been recruited to play in their best position. Their best position isn’t always the most SuperCoach friendly position however. The JLT is a good, but loose, guide in this case.
Kev: It’s really a case-by-case basis. Don’t expect Gary Rohan to suddenly start scoring fantasy hundreds. He was a dud at Sydney and he’ll be a dud at Geelong. You can put more weight into a player that has been traded for to fill a need and will be a walk up start. As always, do your research, community! NOTE: If you’re a fan of annoying Patch (guilty) pick Wingard and be sure to tweet about it.
Lekdog: Mate you said it in the question. The great Chadley Wingardius has a prime opportunity to be his best self now that (devastatingly) Tom Mitchell is out of the picture. Community DON’T FALL INTO THE DYLAN SHIEL TRAP!
Patch: I TOLD YOU NOT TO MENTION CHADLEY. AAAARRGGGHHHHHHHH. No no no no NO. I’m looking very closely at Carlton’s recruits, plus Lachie Neale.
Barron: Yes it can, and yes it will. Now he’s outside of the football obsessed bubble of Adelaide, Wingard is going to thrive and put up some of the same sort of numbers that he did back when he made the All-Australian team.
Q: Midfield depth, when selecting a player, do you look for a lone standout (Patrick Cripps), or someone who has plenty of help around him to prevent shutdown tactics?
Damo: A bit of both. Different horses for different courses.
Kev: Don’t overthink it, just select players that are good at football.
Lekdog: I just look for good players. Good footy players will always score well regardless of what’s around them.
Patch: Depends. Cripps will score regardless. I do try and avoid players from the same teams for that reason, but someone’s gotta score points. Unless you’re from Gold Coast. No-one scores at Gold Coast.
Barron: If they’re good enough it shouldn’t matter, though a lone hand may be more prone to tagging tactics than a team who has an even spread of midfield contributors.
Q: With teams recruiting the likes Braydon Preuss, Scott Lycett and Rory Lobb, is the day of the lone ruckman coming to an end (again)?
Damo: Some ruckmen are comfortable playing in a two pronged set up, and some aren’t. Those who are usually can quite easily double up as a big bodied midfielder, such as Nankervis, Grundy, and even Kreuzer to some degree. So it could be coming to an end, but it just means we’ll have to go for ruckmen who are versatile.
Kev: Even if teams to opt to run with two rucks I think we’ll see the resting ruck being up forward a lot more rather than resting on the bench. A resting ruck with some forward 50 nous is going to be gold. Something to watch for in the practice games.
Lekdog: Nah mate, big KREUUUUUZZZZ is going to be solo this year AND average over 105. Lock it in.
Patch: It’s simply the continuation of the Cox Curse. Someone – maybe Witts – will come from nowhere and be the Top Dawg, just you watch
Barron: I think it depends on the ruckman. Grundy may be the exception to the rule since he plays almost like a tall midfielder. He averaged 5.23 clearances last year, which was 23rd in the league and more than Joel Selwood, Trent Cotchin, Bryce Gibbs, Dyson Heppell, Marcus Bontempelli and Dylan Shiel. The next ruckman was Stefan Martin at 4.95 clearances a game, then you’re all the way down to 3.95 where you find Jarrod Witts and 3.92 where Matthew Kreuzer sits. Someone like Max Gawn averages 2.6 clearances a game. So that may tell us a player more dependent on hitouts to advantage to score may be one to avoid if a dual ruck situation occurs, where a player like Grundy still has enough tricks around the ground to score well, despite having ruck opportunities taken away from him.
Any Hawks players worth extra consideration now that Tom Mitchell is out for the year?
Damo: James Worpel is a tantalising option, however awkwardly priced. They traded in a Chad Wingard from the Power who will add in nicely. A rookie in Dylan Moore also worth putting on your radar, probably one of the beneficiaries if someone moves from the forward line into the midfield. Luke Breust is a smokey.
Kev: There will be greater opportunity for Hawks mids but you can’t replace Titch. The bloke has averaged 20 handballs a game for two years. You can’t teach that sort of gut running and footy awareness. I’ll avoid starting any Hawks in 2019 until a clearer picture is formed (except for Wingard)
Lekdog: Chadley Wingardius the third presents a unique opportunity to tantalise Supercoaches in 2019. Plus if he plays well Kane Cornes will be bitterly disappointed every week.
Patch: Yes, but I don’t know who. Worpel? Jaeger? Rookies? Wait and see on them.
Barron: Worpel is a maybe, but I don’t know if he has oomph in him yet to be worth a pick. I’ve always been a fan of Liam Shiels, he averaged almost 92 SCPoints last year so he is one I won’t ignore on being able to step up.. He’s been been on the cusp of Supercoach selection before, it’s just a question of if he can push into that triple digit territory. A risky pick for sure, but could be a nice POD if it pays off.
Now it’s over to you, community. Any questions you want to put forward that you think will be relevant for SuperCoach this year?