Honestly the first three days of round 17 were absolutely brilliant. Huge scores were everywhere, and not your random massive games from obscure nobodies that no one has. Cripps, Mitchell, Danger, Oliver, Laird all went yuuuuuuge and rewarded their owners. Then Sunday rocks up being as welcome as a fart in an elevator. Nic Nat has done his ACL on his good knee. Gray was infused into the Optus stadium turf. JPK was limping around. Ryder has aggravated his hip.
In true blue bad informercial from the 80’s form there has been a, “but wait, there’s more!” moment. Sicily has broken is wrist and is out for six / the SuperCoach season. Jimmy Webster is reminding us all he’s just a bit injury prone. Michael Hibberd has stayed in a few teams as the season has lurched from one disaster to the next. He’s out this week after a training injury. You can trade him guilt free. Finally!
Things are tough this week. Cash is light, trades are low. So what do we do when we fall off the horse…
… Well if you’re Patch, you yell at it… a lot. Join Patch and Lek in another wholesome podcast this week. With most of our premiums falling over some of the names in Barron’s Around the Grounds article could get a run this week. Captain McCaptainface is still here for some reason (probably because Patch can’t come up with a better pun). There’s also never been a more timely Damo cheat sheet to sink our eyeballs into this week.
For tonight, Josh Battle found his way into a few teams before his injury. He returns to give his owners some forward line coverage. Jimmy Webster will miss as expected. The Tigers have brought in Menadue, McIntosh, and Broad but have lost Bachar Houli to injury.
The Pies have regained some BDE in the form of Mason Cox. Forgotten back Sam Murray also returns. North will go in unchanged. Horse has ruined our 2019 R3 plans by finally naming Darcy Cameron (RUC – 123.9k). Will be interested to see how he goes about things with Cal Sinclair. JPK has been named in the guts. The Suns have named Jacob Heron but have lost Jack Martin for the game. David Swallow is being rested. David Zaharakis is back for Essendon while Jake Long has been dropped. Taylin Duman has been recalled for the suspended Ryan Nyhuis. At the Dees, Joel Smith is another recalled rookie that might have been sitting on your bench doing nothing. Dom Tyson joins him on the ins list while Mitch Hannan and Michael Hibberd make way. Hendo will play his first game of the year at the Cattery. Brisbane are unchanged again, making my ongoing jokes that they make six changes a week look pretty foolish. Adelaide have lost Tex but regain some senior players in Daniel Talia and Mitch McGovern for the must win game.
Sunday is… well, Sunday is a bit silly.
31 players named as “ins” for Sunday. This is getting ridiculous.
— roody (@thatsjustrood) July 19, 2018
Let’s suss out the relevant stuff. Kruze will miss for the Blues but they’ve proven Matthew Lobbe wasn’t drafted just for laughs by naming him on an extended bench. Kym Lebois (FWD – 123.9k) also gets an extended bench nod. James Sicily is the big out at the Hawks. Nathan Vardy has been named and looms as the obvious replacement for Nic Nat if West Coast opt for a like for like replacement against the might of the Bulldogs ruck department. For their part, the Bulldogs haven’t named any outs as yet, but have named Fergus Greene (FWD – 123.9k) on an extended bench. Big news for the final game of the week with Robbie Gray named, as well as Josh Kelly despite some rumours he’d miss. The Giants have named Brett Deledio for his first game six round 6. He’s on an extended bench though so watch for final team news. Paddy Ryder will sit out for Port. The trio of Kane Farrell (DEF / MID – 117.3k), Jarrod Lienert (DEF – 123.9k), and Aiden Bonar (FWD / MID – 157.8k) have been named on extended benches.
THE HOUSE OF EVIL
It’s all hands on deck this week. Bubble or not if you need a warm body on your field then pull the trigger.
These guys come with a free frogurt (that’s good!)
Colin O’Riordan (85 last week)
Alex Morgan (73 last week)
-55 – Jackson Trengove*
-21 – Brent Daniels*
These premiums contain potassium benzoate (that’s bad!)
Jack Darling – 207
Jack Macrae – 176
Josh Kelly – 157
Isaac Heeney – 157
Tobias Greene – 156
Tom Mitchell – 154
Lachie Neale – 148
Marc Murphy – 148
Bryce Gibbs – 134
Hoff – 127
SMOOTH KEVY’S LOCK OF THE WEEK
As was said in the house of evil it’s all hands on deck this week. 48% of us need to find a replacement for James Sicily as six weeks out ends his SuperCoach year for 2018 at 508k. Looking ahead to 2019 he’ll be a popular option.
Replacing him defence only Jake Lloyd may be out of reach for a straight swap. A sneaky punt on Gussy Brayshaw at 487k appeals. Also a mid, with Viney going down for the rest of the year his midfield time is a locked in for a bit longer. He’s been exceptional since his bye averaging a cool 109 with three tons and a low score of 91.
Up forward things are a bit more murky. Forwards are looking pretty garbage with only three averaging over 100 for the year. Could Jack Gunston head to the backline in Sicily’s absence? He played this defensive role back end of 2017 and averaged 101.8 from 7 games with only 1 score under 84.
HEY NOW, YOU’RE A DRAFTSTAR
Halle – freakin – lujah! We’re back, baby! No more of this Thursday night crapola ruining my week. My body clock is already confused as hell waking up at 1am and expecting there to be soccer on.
Looking at the match ups this week I’m weirdly drawn to Brisbane v Adelaide. Adelaide are sitting a game and percentage outside the 8 and this is a game they need to win to stay in touch. Brisbane’s prolonged rebuild has shown signs of life lately, can they knock off the Crows at home?
Our BFF’s over at Fantasy Insider have given us this ideal lineup for Saturday night.
An interesting factoid; neither ruck on this slate gives up many hundreds in Draftstars. Stef has allowed only one, a 111 to Brodie Grundy way back in round 7. Sauce has allowed two: a 126 to Grundy in round 4 and somehow Rhys Stanley cobbled together a 101 last week. This has me looking a little further down the list.
Adelaide have allowed key forwards to score at an average of 85.25DS over the past month, while Oscar McInerney is not of the same ilk as your Gunston’s or Riewoldt’s, he needs a 61 to be value for 7.7k which is not beyond him. For the Crows, Tom Lynch has a rather handy 3-game of average of 128 vs Brisbane. With Tex out he should become more of a forward 50 target and I think he should smash value tomorrow night.
Brisbane has its struggles against medium forwards. Think of your Jarman Impey/Jy Simpkin types. Small, speedy half forward link players. Wayne Milera fits into this mould, as does Jordan Gallucci (also a MID). The returning Mitch McGovern is another that interests me. His injury affected 54 has brought his price down to a level that should see him achieve value quite comfortably.
Rory Laird will gather his usual 35 tonight but at 15.2k he feels overs. At that price you want 120’s and he’s not hitting that mark consistently enough. Adelaide allow the opposition number one rebounder to walk out of the defensive 50 so I’m looking at Alex Witherden here. He averages almost 5 rebound 50’s a game and has flashed a decent ceiling a few times this year. You could take that line of thinking and apply it to the lower ceiling of Nick Robertson at 9.5k as well. Or even Lek’s boi Daniel Rich. Tom Doedee looks attractive at 10.7k based on his recent scoring.
Adelaide are an absolute sieve to opposition midfielders. They’ve given up massive totals to Danger (151) and Gaff (148) recently. Dayne Beams scored 144 against Crows last time out and has one score below 112 in his past 8 games. Dayne Zorko could benefit too but has lesser record against the Crows than Beams. Hugh McBags’ last month has been phenomenal, averaging a tick under 100 he’s another one that should benefit from Adelaide’s loose checking mids. Cam Rayner was slow to find his feet at AFL level but his past three games have been a whopping 22.6DS above his season average. Rory Sloane at 12.3k will be popular tonight but I feel Jarrod Berry will be standing right beside him and we know Sloane doesn’t mix well with taggers.