Round 16 SuperCoach Panic Room
An absolutely huge week in the Panic Room this week!
Nat Fyfe’s injury is one of those “everyone remembers where they were” type of things. Personally I was playing Crash Bandicoot. After dying for the 1,658th time I calmly placed (read: threw with uncontrolled rage) my controller down and checked the scores of Brisbane v Fremantle. I had four Freo players in the last game of the round and I was tracking for a 2,500 score. Alas, I was greeted by the big red cross next to Fyfe on Fanfooty. I left a note and $20 for pizza for Patch and jumped on the next flight over the Perth.
I’m on my way, Fyfey! I was born to provide rigorous hamstring rubdowns for you ❤ #AFLFreoLions
— Kevin Horton (@SC_Kev7) July 1, 2018
I’m sorry, Community. I have failed. My 3am rubdowns, chicken soup, and nightly spooning haven’t paid off and Nat is looking at 4-5 weeks on the sidelines. Is spooning a recognised hamstring recovery method? No. Have I stopped? Also no. You can’t hold, not now. Maybe if you’ve managed to build to M9 and feeling confident. Maybe. A direct swap to another premium midfielder is doable as the most expensive in Tom Mitchell is only 56k away and Josh Kelly is 14k away. Everyone else is cheaper than Fyfe.
There are other ways to play this. Cash gen has really dried up lately as our new batch of rookies have struggled for game time. Trading Fyfe to a player in a purple patch and using the extra coin is a viable strategy. A risky, ballsy strategy sure, but still a strategy.
So what do we do? Well we go to the guaranteed* best in the business. The technology overlords at Windows conspired to take our beloved podcast off us this week, but being the absolute troopers that Patch and Lek are, they re-recorded and let that podcast run wild and free, for as the old saying goes, “Let your podcast run wild and free.” Teams out of the final race will now be looking to blood their kids, Barron has his finger on the pulse in Around the Grounds this week. Patch takes a look at our captain choices for the round ahead (and actually remembered to include Tom Mitchell this time), and after four months of cheat sheets Damo is still producing all round brilliance.
*not a guarantee
Well Thursday night footy is not here to have sexual intercourse with spiders this week. Isaac Heeney. BAM! Gone. Unable to recover from his concussion in time. Both teams play musical chairs with a few kids. Of note: Recent rookie Jamaine Jones is back. Scott Selwood returns for the Cats. Will he shadow JPK?
Matt Crouch has busted his hand as the Crows play the Tigers on Friday. He’ll play but cross him off your trade in targets. Tom Lynch replaces Dave Mackay in their only change. The Tigers are providing some forward line bench relief in the form of Callum Moore for those that have him. Corey Ellis is back too. The suspended Nick Vlastuin and the injured Reece Conca are the ones to make way.
Brisbane have announced an unchanged lineup for the first time in 17 years (this is not a real stat, do not @ me). Paddy Dow is being managed at Carlton. Matt Kreuzer will return. Is anyone still holding Jarrod Garlett? Shock, horror. He’s out injured. Aidyn Johnson has been named for Port and is on the bubble this week. Tom Jonas and Jack Watts are other big names to return. A mix of fringe and injured players make up their outs. Jasper Pittard being the most high profile. St. Kilda’s backline has fallen over days after the national under 18 carnival. I’m not suggesting anything here, but if I was it starts with t and ends with anking. Carlisle and Nathan Brown out doesn’t matter from a SuperCoach viewpoint, but they’ve taken Bailey Rice from us. Jimmy Webster and Logan Austin return for those that held. Charlie Spargo is back for the Dees, but Mitch Hannan is out. At Freo, seeing Nat Fyfe’s name among the outs has brought up old wounds and I’m now writing this slightly misty eyed. Ryan Nyhuis has been dropped. Hawthorn and the Bulldogs have made two changes each, but they won’t hurt you at all.
There’s TWELVE new names listed between North and Gold Coast. I’m not going to list them all as I’m on a deadline / have a life (one of those is correct). Jacob Dawson is out. Will Brodie and Jacob Heron are on an extended bench. There’s a possible debut for Will Walker (MID – 117.3k). It’s pretty much curtains for GWS in 2018. Jono Patton has done his knee again the poor bloke. There are more changes in this game than I can keep up with. Liam Ryan is being managed and there are possible debuts for Oscar Allen (FWD – 117.3k), Aiden Bonar *giggles* (FWD/MID – 157.8k) and Brent Daniels (FWD/MID – 117.3k). For the last game of the week, both teams have topped up their extended benches, Sam Murray is a chance to return.
THE HOUSE OF EVIL
Another week, another batch of so-so rookie bubble boys. Brayden Ainsworth and Aidyn Johnson are both due for their first price rise this week. Yeah… don’t Both garbage,
Some cavalry is on the horizon in the form of Brayden Sier and Quinton Narkle. Both had super debuts but the path of SuperCoach is littered with injured and dropped rookies lately, so hold fire on both.
These guys come with a free frogurt (that’s good!)
-39 – Brayden Ainsworth*
-13 – Aidyn Johnson
These premiums contain potassium benzoate (that’s bad!)
196 – TMac
174 – Kruze
167 – Clayton Oliver
160 – Rory Sloane
160 – Jimmy Webster
157 – Luke Ryan
157 – Ollie Wines
146 – Gaz
145 – Bont
SMOOTH KEVY’S LOCK OF THE WEEK
Nat Fyfe will be at the forefront of trade plans for 56% of coaches this week. To me it’s a case of selecting the next best available. Trying to replace the scoring power of Fyfe, he’s gone 120+ 7x this season, with a Luke Shuey type is an unnecessary risk that you don’t need to take.
You can still grab a POD if you’re looking to distinguish your team from the pack. Ed Curnow (109.9 ave. In 3.5% teams), Andrew Gaff (109.1 ave. In 6.7% teams), and Lachie Neale (108.5 ave. In 7% of teams) are all great options with high ceilings.
A lot has been discussed on Twitter about the absence of Fyfe and Sandi won’t really have much of an affect on Neale, he actually might prosper. I’m still leaning towards Gaff. The former flat track bully has really excelled this season, turning his undoubted ball winning ability into higher ceiling scores. West Coast still have a lot to play for as they aim not to blow their 10-1 start, whereas Fremantle will just coast to the end of the year. A higher draft pick in a stacked draft is gold in a rebuilding team.
HEY NOW, YOU’RE A DRAFTSTAR
G’day Community. Let’s get this out of the way early because let’s face it, my pants will be off and I’ll be sinking piss in preparation for this game. I’ve fired up the number cruncher at Fantasy Insider and the guru’s have given us this optimal lineup for tonights game.
Only two options tonight (I’m not counting JJ). Nank has a better average by 5.7, whereas Sauce has a better 3-game form by 4.7. There’s only $250 between them. Digging slightly deeper, Sauce has absolutely bossed Nank in recent times. He scored 120 vs Richmond earlier in the year and logged 158 and 96 last year. Along with 122 in the GF. Nank has an average of 92 across that 4-game period.
Rory Laird stands way above the pack at 15.5k. He’s an obvious gun but that’s just too expensive for mine. His 5-game average is 103.4 which is just 6.6x value so I’m looking elsewhere. I love Jayden Short. I’ve been stuffing him into lineups at every opportunity. His price is starting to catch up without his output but with a 5-game average of 92 he’s a pretty safe bet to hit value at 11.4k. Corey Ellis has been named this week and will probably head to the backline to fill the void left by Nick Vlastuin. He’s never been a particularly high scorer but only needs a 60 to hit 10x value.
When Conca went down last week Snags Higgins moved into the midfield and had 20 possessions, 7 marks, and 73DS. Richmond have brought in Cal Moore which says to me Higgins will continue to get increased midfield minutes. It’s a badly kept secret that Kane Lambert hits beast mode in SC with Dion Prestia in the side, and it translates to the DFS world as well. Lambert averages 101.6 (5 games) with Prestia in the side, 63.5DS without.
Expecting some big numbers in the clash as Richmond don’t tag and Adelaide mids refuse to run both ways. The news of Matt Crouch’s fractured hand makes me nervous. He says he’s fine and good to go but I’m not feeling it. Especially for a guy that handballs as much as he does. Rory Sloane is at his best when there isn’t a tagger hanging off him. and 12.2k is just too good of a price to pass up on a player of his quality. Dusty hasn’t hit the heights of last year but his reduced price we know he can flick the switch. He hasn’t scored below 90 in his past 5 against the Crows. Dion Prestia has had a stop / start year. He scored 92 last week after a two month injury layoff. In round 7 he scored 70DS from half a game. Last of all, Jack Graham averages 8 tackles a game over the past 3 weeks and has 70’s to his name in each game.
The JR Group is currently the 109th best group in the land! Can we get into the top 100? That would be a phenomenal effort on behalf of the Community. Best of luck and, if you’re listening SC Gods, stop injuring our premiums!