The Jock Reynolds team are going to China!
A special themed edition of the Panic Room this week as we join in on AFL’s attempt to make footy a world game. We’ll take in the sights, the sounds, the smells, and the smog of China and see what SuperCoach lessons we can learn on the other side of the world. Is Crouching here perfecting his fly kick? Will Jock be found at Wǔtái Shān? The home of Buddhist monks seeking wisdom (thanks, Google) Can Higgo be found mentoring Chinese students at mathematics? And we dare ask the question, could Patch be a communist? Lek has spoken on his behalf.
The SuperCoach train rumbles on and we’ve got a fresh batch of annoyances to sink our trades into. Aaron Naughton is gone for 2-3 weeks after stuffing his ankle, with the Dogs having their bye in four weeks it really wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t see him again until round 13. Buddy was another few weeks away during the week but has been named anyway? Something is a bit off there. Josh Kelly seems to have vanished off the face of the Earth, wherever he is, Toby Greene is there with him.
You know the drill by now. Patch and Lek have put on their Sunday best and hit the shops to track down some absolute bargain premiums in the podcast this week. We’ve got five confirmed debutantes this week, read up on their reserve form over at Barron’s Around the Grounds article. Captain McCaptainface has done a Charlie Dixon and resurrected itself from the dead (with the help of Patch), and Demo has delivered some more cheat sheet goodness to get around for the week ahead.
Lachie Murphy owners rejoice! He’s back for tonights clash in one of four changes at the Crows. They’ve lost the big names of Matt Crouch, Tex Walker, and Mitch McGovern. Darcy “SnoopFog” (sorry) Fogarty gets another game. For the Dogs, Aaron Naughton will be out for the next few weeks with his foot / ankle injury.
Jacob Heron (who dis?) (DEF – 102.4k) will make his debut for the Suns, replacing Sam Day in the only change for the match against Port in China. GWS have made two changes, neither SuperCoach relevant, for their game against North who are unchanged. Essendon are playing the kids! Jordan Ridley (DEF – 123.9k) and Dylan Clarke (MID / FWD – 123.9k) will debut and Matt Guelfi has been recalled. On the other hand, out go Michael Hurley to injury, Darcy Parish has been dropped and Kobe Mutch rested. At Geelong, Tomahawk replaces an injured Esava Ratugolea (spelt it right first try!). John Longmire came and said during the week that they just don’t know when Buddy will play, in a refreshing piece of honesty he was bang on because Buddy is BACK this week along with Hanners. Sonny Walters returns for Freo along with the rebounding Nathan Wilson. Taylin Duman makes way. The Saints are giving Bailey Rice his debut (DEF – 123.9k). Pendles returns for the Pies and Alex Fasolo will line up for his first game of the year. Callum Brown is one of those unlucky to miss.
On Sunday there’s big news at the Blues with Marc Murphy fit and ready to return. Weitering is back in and there are possible debuts on the cards for Pat Kerr (FWD – 123.9k) and Matt Shaw (MID – 180.3k). Ed Curnow will miss. For the Dees, Jack Viney is one of five new names. Charlie Spargo, Bailey Fritsch, and Jeff Garlett are all on the extended bench. Out west for the top of the table clash, the Tigers have added 4 names with no confirmed outs as yet. while the Eagles are welcoming back Jeremy McGovern, Nic Nat, Dom Sheed, and Luke Shuey. Fraser McInnes is their only confirmed out. The Lions have also added 4 names without any confirmed outs. Jaegar is out for the Hawks and they’ve confirmed Mitch Lewis (FWD – 123.9l) will debut. Rookies Dave Mirra and James Worpel are on an extended bench.
(The House of Evil)
Another week of poor downgrade options. Hopefully you took advantage last week of those on the bubble. If you’re not going early on him, Ed Phillips is on the horizon last week. as is Isaac Cumming.
These guys come with a free frogurt (that’s good!)
-47 – Brayden Crossley*
-34 – Brad Scheer*
-33 – Lachie Keeffe*
-26 – James Worpel*
-25 – Dave Mirra
-25 – Matt Guelfi
-19 – Charlie Spargo
-15 – Matt Eagles*
These premiums contain potassium benzoate (that’s bad!)
Gaz – 173
Michael Walters – 162
Dusty – 162
Pendles – 161
Buddy – 161
Patrick Cripps – 150
Adam Treloar -150
Titch – 147
Isaac Heeney – 145
Stephen Coniglio – 136
(Smooth Kevy’s Lock of the Week)
It’s time, folks. I tip my hat to those of you with the plums to start without Patrick Dangerfield from round 1. Is he back? He’s had two 130+ games over the last four weeks. He’s now priced at 604k after his price has plummeted almost 150k in 8 weeks. Sounds awful, but he’s still averaging 115. With a breakeven of 119 this week and a soft matchup against Essendon, you definitely want this guy in your team at the end of the year.
You could wait one more week. That breakeven is high-ish and he doesn’t have a great recent record against the Bombers, but you need to start building the war chest to get him in soon.
(Hey Now, You’re a Draftstar)
I didn’t max out Patch’s credit card on business class and travel half way around the world to not watch some footy, no matter how awful it may be. The Suns are pretty useless from a Draftstars perspective, giving up the the most points per match, =1 120+ scores and outright 1st 100+ scores. For their part, Port Adelaide are the 3rd highest scorers per match.
I’ve fired up the Fantasy Insider number cruncher and this is what it has spat out.
Based on the intro above, I’ll go against what Fantasy Insider is laying down and target high scoring Port mids. This brings both Gray’s, Rocky, Polec and Ebert into consideration, even mid-tier guys like Wines and SPP. Fantasy Insider doesn’t want a bar of Robbie in this contest which is fair enough, he scored 60 twice against the Suns last year. A different role and a man in confidence, I couldn’t lock him in quick enough.
I’m going to stack the mids so Brayden Crossley at 7k is too hard to ignore. He won’t blow the roof off…uh, blow the smog out of the air, but he did score a 69 on debut. If that’s his ceiling that’s good enough for 7k. Paddy Ryder scored 115 against Witts in this fixture last year.
Sam Gray ($11.6k) is a bit all over the shop but should enjoy beating up the Suns. He had 109 vs Brisbane and 111 vs Norf earlier in the year. Jake Neade ($8.25k) has laid 17 tackles in 4 weeks. He hasn’t had a huge game as yet, but a few cheap goals will help him out. Robbie Gray ($15.1k) and Rocky ($13k) are available as forwards. Jack Watts ($10.25k) enjoyed playing the Suns while at the Dees. He has a 99 and 109 against them in his past two.
Steven May ($10.95k) buggered off to China at the right time. He’s hauled down 26 marks in 3 weeks and should see plenty of it again. Jack Bowes (8.3k) will put it all together one day and deliver, not saying he will this round but that’s a great price for his potential upside. I’ll recommend spending down in this position, there’s not a lot at the top end that is reliable.
My midfield three have huge ceilings. I’ve sunk a lot of my salary into these three and I’m hoping they salute. I’m not a fan of any sub 10k mids, Charlie Ballard may be popular at 6k to help fill up with guns, but I just don’t see his upside. Lachie Weller’s ($10.8k) last 6 games have been between 72-90. Elsewhere, Touk Miller ($13.7) isn’t a bad option if you’re not keen on Rocky. He has three back-to-back 100’s to his name. Chad and SPP are available in the 10k range, although neither have shown much of a ceiling so far.
Have a great week, folks. Looking forward to Saturday night myself. The free-to-air coverage of Saints v Pies! *kissy fingers* … ahem