Let’s not sugar coat it, last week was tough…
We kinda knew it was coming though, when teams dropped on the Thursday rookies were dropped, premo’s were dropped, Sunday squads added everyone available on their list. Of course it doesn’t help when “reliable” premo’s have a down game, and rookies like Holman and Finlayson hit a wall. Nor does owning Jack bleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep Billings help the cause.
I always just figured my premo’s would get me through the hard times, but if it’s not these guys then who is it? Where do I begin looking?
This stage of the Supercoach year is a bit like when you’ve lost a few early wickets in a one dayer and you need to rebuild. Play it relatively safe but if there’s an opportunity you pounce on it. Make the right moves now and you’ll set yourself up for a big total. Make panic decisions and you’ll lose more wickets, the byes will hit you and you’ll be all out in the fortieth over. And, umm… I’ve really squeezed a lot of out this analogy but you get the gist right?
Luckily my fellow site contributors are making much more sense than I do this week. Mum and Dad (Patch and Lek) dropped some more zesty takes this week in the podcast. Barron gave us the good oil on the next batch of rookie hopefuls, Lek cleared out the post office box and answered your concerns for the week and Sloane and Damo have again given us their combined powers for captains and the cheat sheet.
Can we just have one week where everything isn’t awful? Just one?! It feels like every time I welcome back a premo after a week off I lose two more.
— Scotty kennedy (@mrscotty3630) May 3, 2018
Brett Deledio, Tom Lynch, Chad Wingard, Dom Sheed, Tex Walker, Charlie Curnow, and Michael Walters are just some of the names fighting over a massage table in the ever growing SuperCoach injury room. But wait, there’s more! (there’s always more…) read on.
For tonight, Geelong have swapped Rhys Stanley with Zac Smith, and Stu Crameri will play his first game for a while. Scooter Selwood is back in, tag job on Whitfield maybe? GWS have handed club debuts to Lachie Keeffe ($123.9k FWD/DEF) and Dylan Buckley ($158.3k – DEF). ZGL has been named for the clash. Still no Josh Kelly. I believe he’s secretly gone about a complete groin relocation.
Gold Coast have been hit by the injury bug, making four forced changes and dropping Michael Barlow after one week. There will be debuts for Charlie Ballard ($117.3k MID/FWD) and Brayden Crossley ($117.3k – RUC). Big news for the Essendon v Hawks matchup with popular rookies Matt Guelfi and Dave Mirra DROPPED. James Sicily returns just in time to face a team Hawthorn hate, I reckon he’ll take his boot off and try to stab someone this week. Paddy Ryder is back baby! Jasper Pittard returns as well. Lachie Murphy has again been named an emergency at the Crows, although Darcy Fogarty is back again along with Eddie Betts. Bubble boy Myles Poholke has been dropped. The Blues finally regain Matty Kreuzer for the clash. LDU has been dropped again, this time for the game against Sydney, where Buddy Franklin is still not right. Shaun Higgins’ pretty face is back to its prettiest. Patch will be pleased. He’s been a wreck ever since it was rearranged in that bump.
Richmond have added the four that were dropped last week without any confirmed outs as yet. Freo have added a bunch of fringe players. Blake Acres has been “managed” at the Saints. Hunter Clark and Armo will return, Rowan “My Boat” Marshall has been adequately repaired and declared sea worthy. Christian Petrappa has been named after another case of blaming it on the dog. Winner of The Recruit, Matt Eagles ($123.9k – DEF), has been named for Brisbane on an extended bench. Collingwood will make at least three changes, with Maynard, James Aish, and Ben Reid all out with injury. Fas and Taylor Adams will be two of those ins you’d reckon, and there could be possible debuts for Sam McLarty ($123.9k – DEF) and Brayden Sier ($123.9k – MID). Brodie Grundy has been named but will be “managed”.
THE HOUSE OF EVIL
The rookie cupboard is bare bones this week, only two decent rookies on the bubble in Taylin Duman and Tom Cole. With no fat and juicy downgrade rookies available if you’re downgrading this week it will depend on the role these guys will have in your team. Pay up for Cole if you will be playing him at D6. Duman is a better option on the bench because a) he is 46k less than Cole, and b) he will make some nice coin this week thanks to the 85 in his system. The 50 in week two is enough to make me nervous. Need I remind you of the Nick Coffield debacle?
If you can hold off this week a double downgrade scenario will present itself Ben Ronke, Charlie Spargo, Kobe Mutch, James Worpel and Nick Shipley confirmed second gamers this week. Flynn Appleby and Oscar McInerney are on extended benches.
These guys come with a free frogurt (that’s good!)
-65 – Taylin Duman*
-64 – Tom Cole*
-7 – Zac Bailey
These premiums contain potassium benzoate (that’s bad!)
JJK – 188
Matt Crouch – 182
Dusty – 182
Kruze – 176
Dayne Zorko – 172
Bryce Gibbs – 168
Sidebum – 166
Titch – 156
Patrick Dangerfield – 151
Note Dusty, Titch, and Danger all have high breakevens this week. Dusty and Titch will be available for under 600k next week and if Danger keeps going the way he is it won’t be long until he drops below this mark either. If you’re missing one of these guys think a few steps ahead about how you’ll pounce on them in the coming weeks.
SMOOTH KEVY’S LOCK OF THE WEEK
There was a few on Twitter applauding themselves for holding Lachie Neale after his lean start to the year. He didn’t top 100SC for the first month, but over the past two games he has scored 100 and 151SC. At 523k and a breakeven of 45, he’s shed almost 76k from his starting price. With his proven ceiling, 16 of his 31 100+ scores for the past two seasons have been 120+, he’s someone that needs to be considered.
Stats wise; Lachie is still finding plenty of the ball. Averaging 31.3 a game (5th in the comp). His d.e%, however, is what is mainly holding him back. It currently sits at 68% whereas last year it was 78% (averaged 109SC). His only other stat to show significant decline has been his clearance stat (-1.5 compared to last year).
If you’re after a value round 14 bye player or not really giving a stuff about them this year, Lachie is a proven SuperCoach gun at bargain price.
Now it’s time for a new segment…
You know what really grinds my gears? This ‘state of the game’ debate and how we fix it. What’s to fix, AFL? YOU created this. YOU change the rules every freakin year to create a “better” product. The players are confused, the fans are confused, the umpires are confused, and the media pile it on. By limiting interchange caps the next athletic freak becomes the next big thing, who cares if he’s a natural footballer or not (probably a basketball background). The natural footballer’s get overlooked because they are too short, or too slow, or run funny and our game suffers because of your incompetence.
And that’s what really grinds my gears.
HEY NOW, YOU’RE A DRAFTSTAR
Strange week this week as Port v Eagles and Sydney v North are the only two games the feature clubs that are both in the top 8. I am still giving lots of money to my therapist trying to erase the mental scars of covering North games in the preseason, so let’s look at West Coast v Port.
As always, will kick things off with the guns and guru’s at Fantasy Insider and their ideal lineup for this game.
Bit pushed for time this week so I’ll give you the reasoning for my lineup. If you want some Lineup Cruncher goodness head over to the Fantasy Insider website and check ‘em out.
Nic Nat and Ryder will be the popular options for this clash, I’ll fade both and take Scotty Lycett for only $150 more than NN. He’s had a decent fortnight and does enough around the ground.
Tom Cole’s price is a little high for a third gamer but I don’t like any of the selections below him. JGov will do intercepting JGov things, he’s also in the Fantasy Insider ultimate lineup so that’s good enough for me.
I’ll stick with Amon and Boak in my mids, but I’m a sucker for Jack Redden. He’s had a pretty slow start to the year and I like to play the guy in form, he scored 124DS last week. Andrew Gaff is my favourite DS play, he gets so damn much cheap ball it’s ridiculous. He’s scored 120DS three times this year.
I had to save money somewhere so I’ve gone with the Jake’s. Jake Waterman might not be a massive ball winner but he also doesn’t do stupid things to give away points. Jake Neade is in a similar boat, fills up the box stats without giving away free kicks.
Sensing another tough week this week. Luck can quickly turn in this game. Best of luck for the week.