The Panic Room usually starts earlier in the week, I get the bulk of the article done so when Thursday comes I can just plug in the team news and I can put my feet up. Not this week, Community. Not this bloody week.
On my desk here at Jock HQ there is a red button encased in glass and I’m very tempted to smash it this week. Will pushing it cause klaxons to drop from the ceiling and flashing red lights to go off, causing widespread panic and evacuation procedures? Or will it do nothing? I do not know, Community. I do not know. I’m playing it safe, I don’t need anything else to go wrong this week. Patch built this place with his own two hands, it’s very likely a load bearing button.
Long story short, it has sent me into a complete rewrite. This should have been a good week, we’ve got bubble boys galore, but then…
…Hoooooooo boy, team news has dropped and well… why don’t you just take this broom here and I’ll bend over and grab my ankles, you lube up the handle real good and just sweep me out the door, Community! Cos that’s what’s happening to my chances of posting a decent total this week.
Among the outs we have: *clears throat* Tobias Greene, Buddy, Stomps Sicily, Trac, Hanners, Shaun Higgins, and Matt Taberner. Hodgey is having a rest, still no Josh Kelly at GWS, still no Kruze at Carlton. No sign of Rory Sloane at Adelaide. Rookies Hunter Clark and Jarrod Garlett has been axed. Essendon and Melbourne have added SIXTEEN names between them. I can’t breathe, Community!
Twitter is, of course, taking the news well.
— Damon Marcon (@damonmarcon) April 26, 2018
For tonight, the Dogs have named 5 changes between them. Carlton have handed debuts to Kym Lebois (FWD – $123.9k) and Matt Shaw (MID – 180.3k) Lachie Hunter and Hayden Crozier return for the Dogs. Caleb Marchbank is back for the Blues.
Sydney are giving tackle machine Ben Ronke (FWD – $123.9k) a debut. The Cats regain Tomahawk but lose Daniel Menzel to injury. North have recalled LDU and Port Adelaide Dom Barry. ZGL is finally back and on the bubble at GWS. Nick Shipley (MID – $117.3k) gets his debut. Watch this guy, Community. He bloody gun. Ruckman Oscar McInerney ($123.9k) will debut at Brisbane this week after being in the extended squad last week. Let’s see how Stef Martin copes with this. We need a good laugh this week and Brisbane have provided by naming Daniel Rich. Matt Crouch is back for Adelaide. Watchlist him. His b.e is huge and will be a great upgrade target in a few weeks. At Gold Coast, Michael Barlow gets his first run for the year. Hawthorn have regained Shaun Burgoyne and named James Worpel (MID – $117.3k) to debut.
On Sunday, the changes Essendon and Melbourne have made will take the rest of this article to cover, so I’ll keep it brief. There are possible debuts for Kobe Mutch (123.9k), Jordan Ridley (DEF – 123.9k), and Dylan Clarke (FWD – 123.9k) at Essendon. Charlie Spargo (MID / FWD – 117.3k) might debut at the Dees. Matt Guefli is named on field and Bayley Fritsch on an extended bench. Bellchambers is having a rest. Dean Kent was popular last week, he’s now injured. For the Western Derby, Freo have added 5 names with only Matt Taberner their confirmed out. Scott Jones (RUC – 117.3k) may debut. Speedster Jack Petruccelle (MID / FWD – $117.3k) is one of 4 inclusions. There are no confirmed outs for West Coast yet. Sam Murray has survived at Collingwood, as does Jaidyn Stephenson. Collingwood have added 5 names with possible debuts for Flynn Appleby (DEF – $121.9k) and Brayden Sier (MID – $123.9k). Travis Varcoe is the only confirmed out. Richmond have added 4 names, will Snags survive? He’s on an extended bench. Ivan Soldo has been named also, will Nank be a late out?
How do we even approach this week? Trade ass off? Hold and cop those sweet, sweet sprinkles? Getting your captain right has never been so important. Have a read of Sloane’s captaincy options here. Damo gives us plenty of options for a trade ass off approach to the round. Patch and Lek have got your listening needs covered for the commute home in the podcast, and Barron looks ahead to greener pastures in his reserves write up for the week.
But wait, there’s more!
NOW | Haggers says Dom Sheed and Luke Shuey are unlikely to play in the Derby on Sunday and Elliot Yeo may have strained a hammy. #AFLFreoEagles
— 6PR Breakfast (@6PRbreakfast) April 26, 2018
THE HOUSE OF EVIL
If you’ve somehow avoided the carnage this week (what’s your secret???), Dave Mirra ($102.4), Jordan Cunico ($188.6k) and (if named) Snags Higgins ($130.8k – M/F), Matt Guelfi ($117.3k) and the returning Zac Giles-Langdon ($117.3k) are all some great downgrade options this week.
These guys come with a free frogurt (that’s good!)
-77 – Jack Higgins*
-72 – Matt Guelfi*
-71 – Dave Mirra*
-59 – Jordan Cunico*
-43 – ZGL*
-13 – Dom Barry
-12 – Lochie O’Brien
3 – Bayley Fritsch
These premiums contain potassium benzoate (that’s bad!)
Titch – 211
Matt Crouch – 200
JJK – 167
JPK – 165
Zorko the not-so Magnificent – 165
Jarryd Lyons – 157
Josh Kelly – 154
Danger – 154
Jackson Macrae – 152
Can I go now?
(For those that are seeing their average and breakeven match up)
Ave / b.e
Zach Guthrie – 52.5 / 51
LDU – 40.5 / 60
Riley Bonner – 77.4 / 60
David Armitage – 67.3 / 63
Christian Petracca – 85.6 / 115 (OUT)
SMOOTH KEVY’S LOCK OF THE WEEK
There’s nothing on earth like a genuine, bona fide, electrified, six-car… premium!
🎶 Premium, premium, premium
I hear that he is super cheap
Go ahead and take the leap
Is the a chance that he could break?
He’s as hard as a $2 steak
What about those oppo tags?
Jacobs is the only red flag
To upgrade your midfield it’s your only choice
Hit the trade button and raise your voice
What is Zerrett?
Prem – D’oh! 🎶
HEY NOW, YOU’RE A DRAFTSTAR
In what is a sure sign the members at AFL House were drunk and played ping-pong on the night they organised the 2018 fixture, they’ve allocated their primetime Friday night slot to the Dogs AND Carlton. In the same match. Like, against each other… I bet viewership will be high for this game! If you wanna sneak off and check out the new Avengers flick no-one would hold it against you.
But I’m quote professional unquote …ahem, so let’s dive into this clusterfiretruck of a game and see and see what value we can squeeze out of it.
The guru’s over at Fantasy Insider have crunched the numbers, here’s their optimum lineup for tonight’s match.
Thinking back over the years of some of the elite ruck matchups we’ve had; Cox v Sandi, Goldy v Gawn, etc etc, Tim English vs Andrew Phillips is… well not one of them. I don’t feel comfortable paying nearly 12k for English, go Phillips for $9,150. He wasn’t horrible last week, he had 24 hitouts against Nic Nat and co.
There are only four options above 10k in this position, and only three averaging more than 70DS. Leaning towards paying down in this position as we’ve got more value up forward. Aaron Mullett ($9,550) and Zaine Cordy ($9,950) have both flashed 70 point upsides twice this year. Caleb Marchbank ($8,500) scored 16DS before going off injured, as such, he’s an absolute bargain at that price.
Josh Dunkley ($12,350) had a mare last week against Freo with only 41DS. He’s the kind of player that will score quickly as he fills up all the box stats. Zac Fisher ($10,600) has only one game below 70 so far and knows where the sticks are. Matty Wright ($9,250) has been better in games where he has kicked multiple goals, as is Charlie Curnow ($11,850). He’s been held goalless for the past two weeks but should bounce back tonight without a gorilla hanging off him.
Jack Macrae ($17,200) is priced a little too high for my liking. Lachie Hunter ($15,200) scored 119DS and 148DS in his first two games this year. I’m weak in the face of a cheap mid and Matthew Kennedy ($7,800) is the one, there’s 10x value on offer here. Lin Jong ($11,100) is solid but not a spectacular pick and Bont at $12,200 is just impossible to ignore. Will Mitch Wallis ($12,200) be deployed as a tagger tonight? Ed Curnow and Patrick Cripps have put Carlton on their back. Cripps is more inside (and $1,600 cheaper) with a 130DS ceiling so he gets the nod.