Carnage, folks. Absolute C-A-R-N-A-G-E
It all came crashing down in round 4 and once again I will blame Collingwood. That’s two Friday night wins on the trot and two rubbish weeks in SuperCoach. The villains section of Big Carl’s Heroes, Villains and the Damned article this week read like a who’s who of SuperCoach and every one of them was in my team. On a personal note I got spanked by Patch in not one, but two leagues. Sigh.
(me Sunday night)
These weeks happen in SuperCoach though and we were due. Let’s be honest, we shouldn’t be putting up scores of 2,500+ this early in the season. Patch will probably take away my cookie privileges for saying this but now is NOT the time to panic. League wise, we are two games into a 17 match season. If you are making upgrades at this point make them count, chasing that shiny midpricer that you wouldn’t have come close to considering in the preseason *coughDeanKentcough* is not going to pump out weekly 110’s.
In round 5 we’ve got footy spread over about 17 days culminating in the yuuuuuuuuge ANZAC day clash between Collingwood and Essendon. It might force you into trading during the round, so a friendly reminder that you cannot reverse trades once the round as started. The rookie situation is fairly murky this round, Nick Coffield being the only real worthwhile downgrade target (I feel dirty recommending a Carlton player at this point). As good as he’s been so far, we’ve got Matt “Really, really, really, ridiculously good looking” Guelfi and Dave Mirra on the bubble next week. Mirra is bargain priced, priced at 69 (nice) thousand cheaper than Coffield. Giving us maximum cash from a Bonner or Brayshaw trade.
Listening to the podcast is your first step in scrubbing the stink of round 4 off. A good grasp of who is lighting it up at reserves level is a good thing to have when rookies debut, Barron’s analysis, as always, is a must read. Captain choices were tough to nail last week but Sloane makes it a little easier, and Damo is settling in to Lek’s cheat sheet shoes with another top effort this week.
Only 14 teams have named their squads for the weekend. Teams for Tuesday and Wednesday night games will be released Monday night at 6:20. Despite the decrease, injuries and axe wielding have seen a lot of changes for round 5.
For tonight, Adelaide have made four changes, three of them forced as Rory Sloane, Eddie Betts, and Dave Mackay are all out due to injury. Darcy Fogarty has been omitted. Myles Poholke (MID/FWD – $123,900) will debut. Sydney have dropped Nic Newman in a repeat of the 2017 season. Come to Tigerland, Nic!
Josh Kelly will miss again at GWS, and still no Zac Langdon. They’ll go in unchanged against the Saints. Hunter Clark gets another go at St. Kilda. In devastating news to all boat enthusiasts out there, Rowan “My boat” Marshall is out with injury. I can’t wait until he takes the number 1 ruck position at St Kilda because I definitely have this meme ready to go.
Matthew Kreuzer is one of 5 changes at the Blues, the other four don’t really matter, neither do the five they’ve brought in. Says a lot about their “depth” really. Another raid on GWS post season is a given. Dan Venables will miss 10 weeks after stuffing his ankle, Mark Hutchings comes in and will probably go straight to Patrick Cripps. Ross Lyon has named his FIFTH debutant in a sure sign that he’s in the midst of a full blown midlife crisis, Taylin Duman (DEF – $123,900) the latest to get a gig. The Dogs have made four changes, none of them really matter in a SuperCoach sense. Though Tom Boyd returning after kicking 5 in the VFL last week will excite the faithful. Jack Hombsch returns to the Port Adelaide backline, Tom Rockliff is “injured” (read: shit), and Dom Barry hasn’t learnt a recall. The Cats have dropped Zach Guthrie.
On Sunday, North have added Will Walker (MID – $117,300) to the squad with no confirmed outs as yet. Will Will debut? We will find out tomorrow. Will. The Hawks have added James Worpel to the squad (MID – $117,300). I have no jazzy wordplay here. Bruce will surely sacrificing a goat to ensure a quick return for Cyril, he and Puopolo are the confirmed outs at this stage. Brisbane have made their usual half a dozen changes. Is there a TV reality show called “Who wants to be a Footballer” up north because I really can’t tell you much about them. A debut for Oscar McInerney (RUC – $123,900) could be on the cards, and we know what sharing the ruck duties does to Stef Martin (hint: it’s not good). Gold Coast have added Michael Barlow to their extended bench.
THE HOUSE OF EVIL
Some dud rookie scores have a few of us reaching for whiskey and the trade button this week. Remember trading rookies 101 here, folks. When a players average meets his breakeven, that’s when you trade. So while Holman only managed a 32 against West Coast, his average of 75 is well above his breakeven of 25.
It’s been up for debate at Jock HQ if St. Kilda or Andrew Brayshaw has been more disappointing so far. He flashed his 90 point upside across the preseason, but already has a breakeven of 54 while his average sits at 48. Trading rookies 101 says you trade him, but as mentioned we’ve got some problems with rookies on the bubble this week. If you can stick him at M9 then do so, hopefully that one decent score to get his price moving is just around the corner.
Not a lot of value in trading in rookies over 200k now so I’ve left them out.
* = on the bubble
These guys come with a free frogurt (that’s good!)
-45 – Nick Coffield*
-42 – Jack Henry
-40 – Mitch Crowden
-38 – Ed Richards
-37 – Esava Ratugolea
-3 – Willie Rioli
4 – Cam O’Shea*
These premiums contain potassium benzoate (that’s bad!)
Patrick Dangerfield – 209
Aaron Hall – 162
Tom Mitchell – 160
JPK – 159
Joel Selwood – 156
Goldmember – 155
Dayne Beams – 155
Dusty – 154
Clayton Oliver – 150
Lachie Neale – 149
Jack Billings – 146
SMOOTH KEVY’S LOCK OF THE WEEK
With teams electing to lock down Lachie Whitfield streaming off halfback, Stephen Coniglio has gone 129, 120, 124, 116 in his first month of footy for an average of 122. With Cogs being allowed off the chain, he is averaging 28 disposals at a tick under 70% d.e. At 529k he represents a crazy amount of value.
I did a preseason review on this bloke heading into the 2017 season, where I claimed he could open the batting for Australia due to his general sporting talent (given the current state of Australian cricket, this is a possibility). He was a run with player in 2016, completing his midfield apprenticeship against some of the premier mids in our game.
Casting my eye over his stats so far this season he’s really not dominating in a particular area of the game, but he contributes in a lot of ways. Hitting the scoreboard is the most pleasing for a midfielder, kicking 7 goals so far this year and at least one per game.
With almost 100 games now under his belt he’s in the prime breakout window. Jump on.
HEY NOW, YOU’RE A DRAFTSTAR
Now that Patch has stopped feeding the Jock Reynolds website gremlins after midnight and I can finally post things, I’ll drop a Panic Room update on Tuesday evening for the ANZAC day clash. Draftstars has a casual $100k contest for this one, with 15k for first place. A day off, Draftstars, a few brews, and laughing at Ben Reid’s bleach white noggin’ / facial hair combo, what could be better?