Round Three SuperCoach Panic Room
SuperCoach starts NOW, Community!
We spent many, many weeks ruining our eyesight looking at the unreasonably small video streams of JLT games, all for carefully crafting the “perfect” SuperCoach lineup for 2018. Now we’ve had two weeks to assess how they’ve performed. Smashed it out of the park first two weeks? Good stuff. Marvellous. Not gone so great? No reason to panic. SuperCoach is won by smart trading, rage trading, and stupid sideways moves. That’s where you’ll make up ground while the leaders bask in the glory of having the best team in April.
Now’s the time to be ruthless. It’s time to look your team square in eye and cut the dead weight. It’s time to get in the guys who will give you a solid foundation for the rest of the year.
Your first order of business this week is to get your rookies right, as discussed in the podcast they are four rookie kings you need. Doedee, Fin, Kelly, and Holman. The rest? Ehhh, there’s really no point chasing anyone else. You can then look at corrective trades and jumping on midpricers you may have missed. Always do your research here, Community. Ask yourself why this premium is suddenly sucking, and why is this mid pricer suddenly scoring like a premo?
Try as I might to bring you a happy positive panic room. Matt Crouch faces time on the sidelines and needs to go. Sicily will also miss a week through suspension. Though I’m inclined to hold him, you picked him knowing he was a flog and this flog will still make you cash. Reckon he’s on his last chance though. There’s also Zerrett and Hibberd worrying a few. Out of the two, I think Hibberd needs to go. His role is different, if you knew this two weeks ago you might have reconsidered paying top dollar for him. Though there’s some selection news this week that might just sway you towards keeping him.
There has been a TONNE of information on the site this week to help you navigate through this week. The podcast kicked off what is arguably the most important week in SuperCoach, Barron gave us the lowdown on the rookie situation and Sloane and Damo have combined once again to bring us captain choices and trade targets for this week.
The Big Kruuuuuuuze is back and confirmed to lineup tomorrow night along with Matt Kennedy. Cam O’Shea has fallen victim to the last one in, first one out rule of thumb. Remember when the guy was all the rage preseason? The Pies regain Been Reid and Cox but lose Darcy Moore to injury.
Mitch Robinson is straight back in for the Lions after his one week holiday, I suspect he’ll be having many more throughout the year. The Dees have recalled Sam Frost which is interesting for Hibberd owners. Does this allow him to go back to being more a rebounder?
Michael Hibberd: “With Frosty back this week, it might free me up a bit, which will allow me to use my run and carry, as it’s probably my biggest strength.” #AFLDeesNorth
— Melbourne Footy (@MelbourneFooty) April 6, 2018
Pearce Hanley fused his shoulder with a fence that was meant to see him out until round 5-6, he’s back for the suspended Jack Bowes.
An injured Bradley Hill makes way for Freo in their only change. The Giants will replace Tom Scully with Jacob Hopper, while ZGL is out with a busted hand. Toby Greene must have a bloody tight hammy, he hasn’t been named.
The Saints have slammed the panic button and will trust Rowan Marshall to go against Sam Jacobs on Saturday night. Good luck buddy. Richo has also handed a debut to Nick Coffield. Hunter Clark will remain on the bubble for at least another week. Jack Steele and Koby Stevens have been dropped. For the Crows, Darcy Fogarty is goneski for Tom Lynch, and Richard Douglas is handy replacement for the injured Matt Crouch.
On Sunday, the Tigers and the Hawks will have a minimum of six changes between them. The SuperCoach relevant Sicily, Caddy, and Corey Ellis among them. My boy Jack Higgins is confirmed to debut and I can finally take Dion Prestia off the pine in my draft league. Dave Mirra has again been named on an extended bench for the Hawks. Of their 7 named ins, 6 are on the extended bench. Cheers, Clarko!
Neither of the Eagles or the Cats have confirmed outs as yet, but Tom Cole is a chance to debut. The Dogs have been dealt a blow to their already thin “ruck” department, losing Roughead and Trengove but regain Tom Boyd. Essendon haven’t confirmed any outs as yet, but their ins won’t lead you to a panic trade.
HOUSE OF EVIL
The breakeven section was going to be titled The Upside Down but I’ve had a brainwave. While thinking of good and bad things in Stranger Things I could use as categories, my brain started with the “that’s good / that’s bad” scene from The Simpsons and thus, the House of Evil was born.
As mentioned, Tim Kelly, Tom Doedee, Nick Holman, and Jeremy Finlayson all have breakevens of -120 or above! All absolute non-negotiable must haves this week.
These guys come with a free frogurt (that’s good!)
-84 – Liam Ryan
-60 – Lachie Fogarty
-57 – Sam Murray
-56 – Jake Waterman
-52 – Lachlan Murphy
-51 – Bayley Fritsch
-48 – Zac Fisher
-44 – Riley Bonner
-42 – Bailey Banfield
-3 – Andrew Brayshaw
9 – LDU
25 – Aaron Naughton
33 – Paddy Dow
These premiums contain potassium benzoate (that’s bad!)
Zach Merrett – 241
Tom Rockliff – 239
Dayne Zorko – 221
Marc Murphy – 216
Taylor Adams – 202
Dayne Beams – 200
Brandon Ellis – 193
Sam Menegola – 194
Michael Hibberd – 175
Lachie Neale – 158
Nat Fyfe – 157
Josh Kelly – 146
As a final note, the man, the myth, the legend, Old Ocker has just casually dropped a stat lovers wet dream. His preseason spreadsheets were a thing of beauty and it’s here for you now to try and get your head around it.
SMOOTH KEVY’S LOCK OF THE WEEK
Jarrod Witts wasn’t awful last week so the lock gets dusted off for another week.
Patrick Dangerfield, Clayton Oliver, JPK, Nat Fyfe, and Tom Mitchell led the way in average contested possessions last year. Champion Data loves the guys that get the pill themselves over the uncontested variety, so it makes sense to target this stat when looking at guys to trade in.
Tom Mitchell is already averaging 25 a game, although at 653k he might be out of reach for some. Patrick Cripps is much more affordable at 537k and is averaging 22.5 a game. He was followed around by Holman on Saturday and the Blues lost by 5 goals, but he still scored a handy 115 on the back of 20 contested possessions.
I said in the preseason that it would be tough for Cripps to improve his already amazing stats even more, it’s a small sample size but this year he’s averaging +5 disposals, +9 contested possessions, and +3 clearances compared to last year. While lifting his TOG% from an already impressive 83.5% to 88%. All of that equals don’t listen to me!
I don’t expect him to continue racking up 20+ contested possessions a game (now that I’ve said this, expect 30 contested against the Pies…), his bye and relatively safe floor makes him a good inclusion into your midfield.
HEY NOW, YOU’RE A DRAFTSTAR!
Last weeks lineup was hit hard by the early injury to Matt Crouch and Bachar Houli just straight up sucking. Just over 28k of our salary returned 82DS. Not great and the ideal lineup fell off the pace pretty quickly.
A common trap in Draftstars is feeling you need to spend all of your salary to get the most bang for your buck. This is definitely not the case, like SuperCoach pick a line up that you’re confident will score well, rather than stressing over the 1k you have left over.
The Battle of the Bridge is on Saturday night, this is the ideal lineup according to Fantasy Insider.
A midfield stack looks the way to go in this game. There are 4 players currently averaging over 110 – Coniglio, Whitfield, Kelly, and Parker, and a further 5 more averaging between 90 and 101 – Taranto, Heeney (both fwd eligible) Shiel, JPK, and Ward. Stuff as many of these guys into your lineup as you can and hope you hit the right combination.
Here’s my take on the game.
While Sinclair has had a good start to the year, slotting in Lobb as your ruck allows you to squeeze Tim Taranto (MID/FWD – $11,250) into your forwards. He’s been magnificent so far, scoring 91DS and 112DS, averaging 27.5 touches a game.
Finlayson is only 1 of 4 mids under 10k so I expect him to be highly owned, but it does mean both defensive options are a bit shit. Rampe and Grundy are averaging 45 and 37.5DS respectively so far this year. I hoped for Robbie Fox to keep his spot but he’s out and thrown my plans right out the window. Finlayson and Hopper are the only two mids under 10k for the clash, cheap plays need to be in the forward or defensive lines.
Maybe Will Hayward (FWD – $7,250) or Ollie Florent (FWD – $7,000) could be the way to go? Hayward has gone 79DS, 30DS, while Florent has gone 24DS, 83DS. Which one? Uhhhh, Florent… I think. Maybe?
Adam Tomlinson (DEF – $9,750) is the second best averaging defender behind Lloyd and costs 3k less. I’ll be trying to include him in my lineup.
Player to avoid – Buddy is 16k and while his ceiling is yuuuuuuge, he can also tank hard. It also means putting your trust into a cheapie and there aren’t many to pick from on this slate.
A quick shoutout to Stacy of Brockers Boys for leading the way in the JR Community group with an overall ranking of 73! (Code: 505844. Jump in if you haven’t yet).
Best of luck this week, community!