It has been an odd preseason community.
Devoid of the three giants who paved the way before us, I’ve felt a weight of responsibilty press down on me.
Initially I thought it would cause me to halter…to crumble.
But today I stand here before you all, before the Supercoach gods themselves.
For I have taken that weight, I have lifted it, I have dropped it, then lifted it again and so on and so forth until I could finally squat the weight of the Supercoach community with ease.
I stood on the precipice of the Supercoach mountain and laughed into the sunrise, weight held high above my head, not a drop of sweat leaving my brow.
This is where it dawned on me, literally, I was not holding the weight alone. Patch, Barron, Kev, every contibutor from the preseason and most importantly all of you, stood there by my side.
I had not lifted the weight, I had barely touched it.
You were the ones who kept our community alive.
In the light of a new day, so close to the beginning of a new season, I offer you this…my side.
It isn’t much, but it is the only gift I have left to give.
This will be the first time I’ve ever spent money in defence and I kind of like it.
Michael Hurley is kind of a no-brainer for mine. At 12% ownership he’s enough of a PoD that I can enjoy selecting him but he’s still good enough that he’ll pump out tons for me every week.
He went 100+ on twelve occassions in 2017 plus a nice score of 122 in the Elimination Final. At $560K I do expect him to drop in price but I’m willing to take the hit there for his elevated points output potential. I probably wouldn’t have selected him but an injury in the preseason scared enough coaches off that I’m swooping in. Didn’t do anything amazing in his only JLT game which was great for ownership but the fact that he played was enough for me.
Rory Laird is just about as lockable as you can get. I reckon he’s overpriced (like Hurley) but I don’t think you can afford to miss him. We all know the story, he averaged over 100 in 2017 and had scores of 65, 129 and 106 in the Finals.
With scores of 102 and 90 in the preaseason (going at 1.1 ppm) he should have cemented himself into just about every single Supercoach side.
This third spot has been up for grabs all preaseason. I’ve had Michael Hibberd in there, James Sicily, Daniel Rich (stiff to miss out) but it’s Shane Savage who gets the nod.
He is a risk, there’s no doubt about it, but he is a calculated risk at a reasonably cheap price. Upon his return to the Saint Kilda side in 2017, Savage quickly became a key cog in the Saints ball movement. He averaged 96.7 points through to the end of the season. He also added scores of 145 and 113 to his tally in the JLT, bringing his average since Round 10, 2017, to 102.6 points per game. His ownership has jumped to 11% this week (up from around 7%) but he, like Hurley, is enough of a PoD for me.
As per most team reveals the rookies are fluid, though I’m particularly concerned by news that Nick Coffield will only make the Saints Round 1 side if some others don’t get up. At least he’s an easy enough upgrade to Bonner or downgrade pending rookie news.
The rest of the rookies speak for themselves with Naughton being the one I think isn’t in enough sides. He might not score heavily but I expect him to play enough games early in the season to warrant his selection.
Patrick Dangerfield is the best player in the competition, if he is named I select him. If he is a late out I switch him with the best Supercoach player of all time, Gary Ablett…Junior. If he isn’t named he’ll become Tom Mitchell.
Clayton Oliver, my oh my, what a man.
Sure, it’s hard to spend $600K on a player in their third year, a guy who hasn’t built the public trust we expect from uber-premiums but seeing is believing and what we saw in 2017 was remarkable.
Clayton Oliver has the capability to become one of the best Supercoach selections of all time. He has exceeded every record set before him and posted an average of 111.5 in just his second year…he’s only going to get better.
In 2017 Oliver ranked second for contested possessions and third for tackles. He had at least 24 disposals in every single game he played at an average of 30 per game, he can go BIG!
Supercoach wise, how do these numbers work for you?
- Lowest score of the year, 80, only happened once
- Four scores in the 90s
- 17, yes 17, scores of 102+
- Eleven scores of 110+
- High scores of 139, 142 and 170
In my side despite news on a knee injury sustained in the JLT. Until I see that he’s not playing Round 1 for sure, he stays at M2. Bloody big PoD at 6.3% ownership.
Luke Parker is a very good selection in 2018. I said it on the podcast but I believe his average swings year by year and science* says that this is an upward trending season.
The man is in his prime and has played almost every game since the start of 2013, I expect Sydney to improve this year and with that comes a big one from Parker.
He can kick goals and rack up possessions, he’s also been to the mountain and averaged over 110 before so I’m sold.
H was in and outr of my side throughout the Summer but a 108 and 118 in the JLT just locked him away. At 7.1% ownership and a pricetag of just $546,000 I reckon he could be a buy of the year contender.
*science is me believing in patterns
Patrick Cripps. I don’t see any downside to selecting the great man even though he has a very high ownership percentage of %27.5.
Cripps has all the numbers behind him to suggest that he can average well over 110 in a full year.
I know that some Supercoaches are turned off by his inury history, but if you isolate all of his injuries you’ll find that the majority of them have been casued by someone else, they’re also all over his body as opposed to a degenerative and recurring injury in the vain of a Jaeger O’Meara.
I believe that in 2018 the best way to generate cash will be running three on-field rookies in defence and three on-field rookies in the midfield. I’m running to expensive rookies; Brayshaw who has the potential to make us over $200k and be a reliable on-field scorer and Brodie who has had a year in the AFL system to build his body and real life AFL games played, he should be a reliable source of points.
The other rookies are fairly straight forward although I’m not confident that Dom Barry will get named for Round 1…this is why we have some cash left over.
If anyone is going to break the Cox-curse it’s Matthew Kreuzer. He is Carlton’s third best midfielder but he also just so happens to hit the ball to other people sometimes.
He averaged 109.8 in 2017 and scored a 118 in Jlt 1, before an ankle injury saw him manage just 8 points in JLT 2. His ability to score is matched by very few ruckmen in this game of ours.
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, he has played 55 of Carlton’s last 57 games. Don’t worry about the injury history people! Hell, even if he does get injured you can just trade him to LITERALLY ANY OTHER RUCKMAN.
Anyway, he bloody good pick at only 5.4% ownership.
Not much needs to be said about Max Gawn, he should be in every single team right now, 62.9% isn’t enough!
Good old Mitch King, at 0.4% ownership he is my biggest point of difference. I’ll just steal Barron’s reasoning for the selection
“Mitchell King is purely for ruck loophole purposes. He is more expensive than selecting a 102K rookie, but he’s an easy swap with Gawn and Melbourne have 8 Sunday/Monday games in the first 12 rounds of the year, which will maximize the amount I can use him as a loophole in the early part of the year”
Can always drop him to Olango the Orangutango if need be.
My forward line is reasonably straight forward in the way it is structured.
I’ve got Supercoach wunderkind Sam Menegola holding down the fort at F1.
This kid has the makings of a star and I’m very confident that the return of god won’t impact his scoring in a negative fashion. Good players get better with good players around, bad players slack off. Menegola is a good player.
He has all the marking of a Supercoach beast and will find his way into quite a few sides come seasons end. At $550K I’m locking in a loss but when he comes out and pumps those tons I’ll be a very happy young Lek.
He averaged 99.3 in his first season (six games) and 100.4 in his second year (19 games), I don’t expect a massive jump on this output but I do expect him to maintain it.
His ownership sits at just 5.7% which is far less than before his JLT series. Good for me because he scored 86 points at 1.09 ppm.
Kane Lambert is a reasonably new addition to the side but the reasoning is pretty simple.
Richmond look like they want to run lamert on the ball a bit more in 2018 and he is naturally progressing as a player and a Supercoach option. He jumped his average from 64.9 in 2016 up to 86 in 2017 and based on the end to his year, that scoring will rise again.
Lambert averaged 103.9 points per game from Round 20 in 2017, this average drops slightly to 100.5 if we include his JLT series. I honestly believe that this is closer to his average in 2018 than 86.
Side note, he averages 100.9 with Jack Graham in the side. 4.5% ownership, you beauty!
Toby McLean only averaged 85.5 last year but he was a really good point of difference for those who brought him in when he returned from a month-long injury in Round 12.
Prior to his foot sprain, McLean was averaging 80 Supercoach points per game, upon his return he broke out with an average of 93.
In 2017 his disposals per game, clearances and contested possessions all jumped from previous years. McLean also has the (now rare) flexibility to be selected as a midfielder or a forward, he’s this year’s Macrae!
I’m expecting an average in excess of 93 point per game and at his price point I like the selection. I thought he’d be in more sides but 4.9% selection arouses me
Dev Smith is another one of those ‘just pick him guys’ so pick him I did.
Now I’m currently fielding two rookie forwards, which isn’t ideal but I do have $172K in the bank.
My plan is to use this cash to move some rookies around (pending team selections) upgrade Coffield to Bonner, or (more than likely this one) upgrade a $117K guy to Tom Bell. He’s a preseason trap for sure, but one that I’ll probably fall into, what can I say? I loved the guy at Carlton.
Honestly community, I’m feeling really good about this team. It’s not so crazy that it makes me double take but there are enough PoD’s that it still feels like my team.
Let me know what you think, know that I probably won’t take any advice on-board given how long I’ve worked on the team, and we can chat in the comments.
It’s going to be a fun season community, let’s get stuck in!
Follow me on Twitter @LekDogSC