Ahhhh, yes. The heady days of #Nankilands. With Witts at R3. Our very own @LekBlog started a Twitter revolution by unleashing the hashtag that forever changed the Twitter landscape in 2017. Will Scott Lycett do this for us again, or are we trying to fit a very large square peg into a round hole?
Depending on who you believe, Nic Natan.. Natut Nic Nat is either “burning up the track” or will never jump again. David King seems to have a lot of inside info, which I take with the largest grain of salt known to man. Recent reports have Nic down as “unlikely” for JLT2, with midfield stoppage coach Nathan van Berlo saying:
“Nic is building. He’s probably unlikely to play next week, but he had a really good hit-out yesterday with the boys and moved really well”
So maybe not all doom and gloom, but as we know trusting a premium without a preseason isn’t a smart thing to do, especially when there’s no obvious bench cover to save us.
With the news Nathan Vardy is out for a month, and lets face it, probably longer because that guy is a walking medical room, the Eagles ruck stocks are looking desperately thin.
Scott Lycett is the last man standing at the Eagles. At $277,100 this makes him super relevant as someone that can keep R2 warm until Ryder gets off his bye, or until we are given a clearer picture of who should accompany Gawn (please just pick him) in our ruck line, but is he worth the hassle?
Scott Lycett: The Facts
2018 Price: 277,100
2017 Games: 1
2017 Average: 63
2017 100+ scores: 0
2017 -80 scores: 1
The Kind of Good
Lycett hasn’t had a great run with injury since, well, his debut. Shoulder, knee, and ankle issues keeping him to just 50 appearances in 7 seasons.
He *knocks on all available wood in my vicinity* seems to be fit and having a full preseason this year. Telling AFL.com.au
“Vards (Nathan Vardy) and myself have been smashing into each other all summer. We’re definitely putting our hands up for that (ruck) position.”
He put in a respectable 13 hitout, 2 goal, 5 tackle (81SC) performance against Paddy Ryder in JLT1 from 84% TOG. Let’s have a look at how Lycett goes with and without Nic Nat in the side since 2014 (I’ve excluded sub effected games).
|Lycett With Nic Nat||Lycett Without Nic Nat|
|Average in 2014||81.9 (10 games)||92 (1 game)|
|Average in 2015||61.6 (5 games)||123 (1 game)|
|Average in 2016||81.2 (14 games)||87.6 (6 games)|
I’m comfortable excluding 2015 because of the small sample size of 6 games. Looking at his 2014 and 2016 seasons, he’s an 80 averaging ruckman with and without Nic Nat in the side. For 277k this represents a lot of value even if Nic Nat returns in round 1 or round 10.
The Kind of Bad
However, average can be a tricky thing. Standard deviation is a much better indicator of what to expect from Lycett. I won’t bore you with the extremely nerdy maths behind it, but his standard deviation for both ’14 and ’16 seasons sat at 30. This means, as a 80 averaging ruckman, on a good day he can deliver you a 110 or drop a steaming pile of 50SC.
This is supported by his range of scoring in all games from 2014 and 2016 seasons, he has 12 out of 31 scores below 80 and a further 11 out of 31 over 100. He had a sort of a mini breakout in 2016, scoring 8 of those 11 100’s. A shoutout to Ricochet on Twitter for looking into who he was up against
But is he worth it?
From the table above, an average of 80 seems a fair call, so what happens to his price up until his round 12 bye? I’ve also included his projected price for an 85 and 90 average, which I think is generous.
He tops out at just shy of 400k following round 11 (398k) if he averaged 80, with each increment of 5SC earning him a further 20k or so. If you continue post bye rounds his price hits diminishing returns so 400k looks to be just about his floor. Now of course this assumes his price rise to be perfect and linear of an 80 each week and we know he doesn’t do that, it’s possible his price begins to stall as early as round 5 if he drops consecutive stinkers.
Lycett’s 100s (2016)
v Sandi (Sandi inj Q2) WC won by 33
v Vickery (yep…) won by 68
v Grundy (solid oppo) won by 62
v Trengove (not a ruckman) won by 8
v Nicholls (barely a ruckman) won by 77
v Luey (inj after HT) won by 78
v Gawn (credit here) won by 6
v McEvoy (meh) won by 25
— Ricochet (@Ricochetthis) March 5, 2018
Assuming he stays fit and plays every game until his bye, Lycett is capable of adding 120k to his starting price. It’s not fantastic but you’d take that. Hopefully your rookies have fattened by this time so finding an extra 100-150k to upgrade him to a safer ruck shouldn’t cause you too much hassle.
It’s going to be one hell of a journey though, for me personally, Lycett represents too much of a risk this year and I haven’t even discussed his injury history. Nankilands and Witts worked last year because we had relevant R/F options that acted as a safety net if everything blew up. We don’t have that luxury this year, if Lycett falls over early you’ll be stuck with a 350k ruckman and where do you go from there?
With set and forget rucks, if one goes down you grab the rifle and take it round back. Move on. While Lycett does represent value, his inconsistent scores will cause way too much frustration.
What you reckon, Community? You taking the risk on Lycett this year?