As an out and proud Richmond supporter, I thought nothing could rival the man-love I feel for Dustin Martin…

… I was wrong. The man-love coming (lol) from Carlton supporters for Patrick Cripps is on another level. “He’s a beast!”, they cry. “He’s never had a full preseason!” they yell. “I want to lock him in my basement and watch him while he sleeps,” is something I’ve probably seen on Twitter.

Patrick Cripps – The Facts
2018 Price: 537,300

2017 Games: 15

2017 Average: 97.7

2017 100+ scores: 9

2017 -80 scores: 4 (one was because of injury)

 

THE GOOD

If you got your hot little hands on the 2017 Jock Reynolds magazine, you’ll fondly remember a certain page you found yourself constantly flicking back to. No I’m not talking about the centrefold, rather the Hunting the Next Midfield Beast article.

It looked at the first 50 games of established midfield beasts – Bont, Fyfe, JPK, Neale, Pendlebury, Rocky, Sloane, and Treloar. Looking at stats like their total possessions, contested possessions, clearances, tackles, goals, time on ground %, and SC average from game 1-10, 11-20 and so on. By finding the average of these statistical markers, they could then be applied to up and coming beasts to see if, from a statistical viewpoint, they’d be ready to break out.

Averages for the beasts

Game range SC Ave Disp Con/Disp Clerances Tackles Goals TOG%
1-10 68 16 6 1.7 3.2 0.6 70
11-20 90 21 9 2.9 3.7 0.8 81
21-30 87 22 9 3.2 3.8 0.6 78
31-40 103 24 11 4.3 4.6 0.6 81
41-50 107 25 12 5.1 4.5 0.8 82

 

At the time of publishing, Cripps had smashed it in his first 40 games. Only recording a lower SC average during games 31-40 (103 v 98) and a lower amount of goals across all four game ranges. How did his 41-50 block of games pan out? Let’s have a look.

Cripps’ averages for games 41-50

(Green = good. Red = bad)

Even though his disposal average dropped by 3 from game 31-40 to game 41-50, his SC average increased by 10. Cripps looks primed and ready to go. Now before you Carlton fanboys reach for the tissues and hand lotion, I do have some concerns.

THE BAD

Look at his TOG%. I love TOG%. If wannabe beasts are going about their business for longer you’d naturally expect their SC average to rise. Cripps is basically tapped out in that regard. The top 5 contested bulls from last season (Danger, Dusty, Oliver, Matt Crouch, Tom Mitchell) had a TOG% average of 82%. Looking at games 21-50 overall, his key stats don’t move around all that much, you could draw the conclusion that what he does on the field in the time that he’s there has reached its peak.

Ignoring his 3 game debut season where he copped the substitute frog vest twice, he’s played 56 games for 31 100+ scores at a rate of just over a 100 every two games (55%), with 11 of those 31 being 120+ (35% – one in three games). At his price point, this is serviceable, in a year of stacked midfields this isn’t all that great.

Away from the numbers, Carlton’s list is what the French call a certain – le shité – Champion Data ranking them last in list quality list year. With a further 13 list turnovers this year, the loss of Gibbs to Adelaide and Docherty to an ACL, there’s a leadership vacuum and Cripps will once again be asked to shoulder a lot of midfield responsibility.

 

THE VERDICT

There’s no doubt Cripps will be a good player, in fact he already is a good player, but I question whether he can become the next great SuperCoach point scoring pig based purely on stats.

Fans of what I call the “even build” approach to Supercoach – that is: a few premiums, a midpricer, the rest rookies – will no doubt see the appeal of someone like Cripps. However, in a year of stacked mids if he blows it or doesn’t take a a big enough step he becomes a bit of middling player that’s good, but not good enough to match it with the top midfielders.

Cripps is not a bad pick, but you’re taking him entirely on faith that he will improve his  footballing smarts rather than him taking another big statistical jump in 2018.

What do you think, Community? Will Cripps tear 2018 apart?

Follow kev on Twitter at SC_Kev7


41 Comments

Krups · 03/03/2018 at 11:53

Only issue for me is will he attract more of a tag with Gibbs not there anymore or will the tagger go to Murphy? Also may be some more points coming if he goes forward like he did playing the saints the other night?

    SC_Kev7 · 03/03/2018 at 12:16

    Cripps forward was interesting, Krups. As you can see from the tables he’s not a noted goslkicker. Saw a few comments on Twitter saying 120 was overs for him, but take away 16 points for his 2 goals and he gets 104 which is now not real fantastic. Keen to see if he drifts forward again for JLT2

TOPHAWK1 · 03/03/2018 at 11:58

Great analysis Kev! I am torn between starting with either Cripps or Coniglio for my final premo M5 spot. Both players should get pretty much pure midfield time and decent TOG. Carlton are extremely light on in their midfield and Cripps will be ask to do some serious heavy lifting there. GWS do not have this problem. With guys like Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield, Callan Ward, and Coniglio running through the midfield, Coniglio may have some points pinched of him. That said, Coniglio is so bloody tempting right now. With a price tag of just 452K and his monster JLT 1 game, he might just squeeze out Crippsy. But then again, with his checkered injury history, perhaps I should just stump up the extra 85K and go for the "beast".

    SC_Kev7 · 03/03/2018 at 12:23

    Same issue running through my mind, Hawk. Didn’t need that from Cogs. Thought his numbers may have dried up a bit with no Mumford but didn’t seem an issue.

    I have Cripps at the moment purely for his round 12 bye

Post_MaSloane · 03/03/2018 at 12:13

Awesome analysis Kev! I think a lot of people have Cripps purely because of the fear of missing out. For a player with question marks it's probably worth spending the extra 70k on a guaranteed top 8 mid. Having said that, however, he is currently my m5 purely for the fact I can't afford anyone more expensive. I'm too greedy I know

Eric_the_Red · 03/03/2018 at 12:15

Great write up. Thanks. Love your number crunching. Do we entertain the idea of Bont in our mid as an alternative to Cripps?

    SC_Kev7 · 03/03/2018 at 12:31

    Cheers, Red. Doing the write up for the Dogs v Hawks later today. I got burnt by him last year buying him at a premium then he shit his dacks. Not overly keen as a personal preference, but nothing wrong with him that I can think of.

    McLean named in guts is one to watch

      Eric_the_Red · 03/03/2018 at 12:34

      McLean I have. Reckon he'll do very well this year. I'll look forward to your next write up. Cheers.

TRIGGA_HAPPY · 03/03/2018 at 12:53

He is going to spend more time on ground resting up forward.
JLT was just a taste.
Good luck to the poor old medium sized defender trying to stop a guy who is taller than the duck

Wont worry if they tag him did that and failed he is strong and has quick hands. Murph will always get the tag as u can impact his influence.

INPieman · 03/03/2018 at 12:54

Nice article Kev. Taking the Higgo role is no easy feat. A lot to like about Cripps. But as you say in a season stacked with rolled gold mid premos I'm not convinced he can make his way into top 10 territory. The competition is elite. He's at a price where you can't get rid of him & for that reason & not seeing too many wins for the blues I'm going to pass

    dontbluashbaby · 04/03/2018 at 11:23

    Good call from a Blues supporter INP, I take a lot of notice of people who understand the game a make valid comments about the team they support. IMO if you start Cripps your keeping him, better off getting an Uber to start with

Post_MaSloane · 03/03/2018 at 14:40

Macrae on 67 at quarter time. Could be a very rewarding pod

TOPHAWK1 · 03/03/2018 at 15:05

Early signs very very promising for Aaron Naughton. Took a gutsy marking running back into the pack, uses the pill well, runs hard, and attacks the footy. Almost sold on him already. And its only half time!

    TRIGGA_HAPPY · 03/03/2018 at 15:10

    Getting better as the game goes. Picking up the tempo. Doesnt look out of place thats for sure.

      TOPHAWK1 · 03/03/2018 at 15:17

      Be nice if Clarko could give Mirra a run. I am super keen to have a look at him. Jaeger Omeara needs to do more for me to pick him at this stage. Still not convinced after what I saw in the first half. Cheers TRIGGA

        INPieman · 03/03/2018 at 15:22

        There was a piece of play in the second where Naughton got the ball out of defence & kept running down the ground chasing. Straight into my team after watching that. Same opinion on JOM. Hasn't done enough

          TOPHAWK1 · 03/03/2018 at 15:36

          Yep. I saw that also. When he got the footy down back he passed it off, kept running, got it back, and then disposed of it again, and he still kept running all the way into the forward line. That play pretty much has got him locked into my team and that courageous mark earlier in the game was brilliant as well.

            INPieman · 03/03/2018 at 15:57

            You don't see many first year players do what he's doing. Find a spot for him

          Derek · 03/03/2018 at 17:44

          I’ve been big on JOM. That wasn’t good.

          Whitecross seemed to be in more centre bounces than JOM

          Might see if I can Ryder to Simpson and JOM up to TMitch

            hedski · 03/03/2018 at 17:49

            You won't really go Dawson after all your ruck troubles surely Derek?

    neil Demons Delight · 03/03/2018 at 17:33

    Naughton is ready made and a lock mirra only played one quarter but locked also seen enough

GloryDays90 · 03/03/2018 at 15:57

Locked in for me:

Sicily, Mitchell and MacRae

Dalhaus can go suck an egg.

    TRIGGA_HAPPY · 03/03/2018 at 15:59

    Is there any game ever where Titch doesnt get leather poisoning?
    Probably should tell him its a pre season game

    Only knows one way.

      GloryDays90 · 03/03/2018 at 16:01

      I agree. Him and Danger are must haves for me. Both have that ability to go NUTS and find heaps of the ball.

    neil Demons Delight · 03/03/2018 at 17:24

    Been looking for a link to TOM Welcome SIC stay back and you TOM stay FORWARD and we can all go forth and multiply

hedski · 03/03/2018 at 17:48

Payne is looking a likely type, $117k def, going well, good size about him.
Seems we might have quite a few def rooks on offer.

AuroraBorealis?! · 03/03/2018 at 18:40

What are people's thoughts on Stef Martin? I initially had Nic Nat in my team but his fitness is worrying so im looking at other options for R2, do you guys think that Archie Smith will be a serious problem? Cheers.

    hedski · 03/03/2018 at 18:57

    Looks bloody good today AB, don't think Archie is playing tho. Its a prick of a situation, I'm half keen on him too.

    David C · 04/03/2018 at 08:45

    I brought him in on that performance. McStay and Walker were doing the ruck relief duties, no other ruck was even selected. He might be rested for JLT 2 but I think it's clear that Brisbane aren't going to play 2 rucks.

    SC_Kev7 · 04/03/2018 at 09:50

    Considering how wide open the ruck situation is beyond Maxy, he made the watchlist. Would love another look, Swans didn’t put up much ruck opposition

Oh Really · 03/03/2018 at 20:27

I'd have thought you'd want to point out that last year a back issue meant Cripps basically missed the entire pre-season. We know that he played 6 weeks with a couple of broken ribs which occurred early in the season. Then Lewis gave him that cheap punch which fractured his jaw and again, Cripps played on. His season ended with a broken leg but if you think the earlier issues didn't effect his average then your nuts.

    Howeyyy · 03/03/2018 at 23:30

    Exactly , with a preseason I think he can shoot up another ten on his average for sure , I’m tipping him for a big year

      David C · 04/03/2018 at 08:47

      Carlton have said he will spend more time forward. Big question make for me.

        Paul · 04/03/2018 at 10:40

        So 30 touches, 20 contested and 2 goals a game. Sounds like a big average to me

    SC_Kev7 · 04/03/2018 at 10:27

    Valid point, Oh Really. If he came out R1 2017 after no preseason, played 70% of the game and recorded those contested possessions and tackle stats, then yeah there would be massive scope for him to improve his average. He played 84% of that match. He's not struggling to get to the next contest. Even with busted ribs his TOG stat dropped under 80 once for the entire year (excluding his broken leg match) and it was low 90's by R6, again, he's not struggling fitness wise

    It's possible that it got him mentally, being unsure about his body and whatnot. If he was protecting his body it didn't seem to slow him down getting contested ball.

      Oh Really · 04/03/2018 at 18:32

      Take out his 25 point last game when he broke his leg and Cripps average for 2017 goes to 103. No doubt he'd have cracked 110+ if he went into the season fully fit and avoided the aforementioned injuries. The year before he averaged 107.

      As for stats, here's a few records he leads – after 50 games:

      Most clearances –

      Cripps 352; Liber 293, Sam Mitchell 286; Simon Black 261.

      Most contested possessions –

      Cripps 714, Liber 568, Josh Kennedy 554, Barlow 536.

      Pretty sure that's an elite trajectory.

      Carl · 06/03/2018 at 09:39

      So you don’t think with a full pre season he’ll improve his output Kev??

Rick Grimes · 04/03/2018 at 17:05

Absolute lock. Not a Carlton fan.

    dontblushbaby · 04/03/2018 at 21:31

    Is he going to be a Top 8 Mid ? If so great , if not an upgrade or downgrade trade ???

Nateo · 05/03/2018 at 10:57

Tog will improve as he's going to rest fwd more rather than going off to the bench thus him kicking a few more goals = higher sc score

Mike · 06/03/2018 at 20:23

He is a 6.5 midfield beast your kidding yourself if you dont start with him

Comments are closed.