HAYDEN CROZIER – Supercoach Spotlight 2018

Filed in Forwards 2018, Midpricers, Supercoach 2018, Western Bulldogs 2018 by on 27/02/2018 • views: 5170

BY DAMIEN

Hayden who? Most people wouldn’t know a thing about Hayden Crozier, because he’s just not a standout player.

He’s not a highlights package, he’s not a ball magnet – in fact he’s never averaged more than 17 touches a game in his seven-year, 69-game career.

A lot of people might not even know the forward flanker was traded to the Western Bulldogs in the 2017 off-season.

I bring you this to consider Hayden Crozier the running defender, rather than Hayden Crozier the half forward flanker. Shock and horror ensued when I found out Ross Lyon wasn’t playing Crozier in his best position for 90% of his career, but he’s in safe hands now. I think.

Luke Beveridge sweet talked him into requesting a trade to the Dogs, which the Dockers were happy to facilitate. Well, happier to facilitate than some other trades they had to do in the off season.

So, Crozier has been brought over, and if news reports are to be believed he is being primed to take over the role Robert Murphy left behind after his retirement. And the stats for him in that role are encouraging, despite the small sample size.

2017 Games 19
Price (Position) $341,400 (FWD)
Scores Below 80: 18
Scores Above 80: 1 (84)
2017 Highs and Lows: High of 84, Low of 42

Not very impressive, is it?

So what stats have we got to go on to even consider him as an idea?

Well, not a lot to be honest, but let me cast your mind back to 2016. In 2016, Fremantle had an injury crisis, it resulted in them having too many of the same player available, so they sent Hayden Crozier to defence for the final 10 weeks of the season. He wasn’t bad either. He averaged 88.4 SuperCoach points over the first 5 weeks of that 10 week period.

THE GOOD

In the first 5 weeks of that 10 week period, Crozier had scores of 90, 100, 71, 87, 94 – Not bad for someone who mainly played in attack for his pre-registered career. Positively, he also recorded a close to 2:1 kick to handball ratio, with an average disposal efficiency of around 85%.

In the 10 weeks he spent in the backline he was ranked third at Fremantle for metres gained, and ranked the sixth best kick retention rate of the top 15 metres gained players at the club.

In 2017, despite not getting to the same lofty heights, his best scores were produced against clubs which the Bulldogs play in 4 of their first 7 games. As a forward, mind you. The Bulldogs play Fremantle (his former club) in those first 7 games, and he didn’t play in the Dockers only game against the Swans last season, another one of the first 7 teams the Bulldogs play. On top of that, in 2016, his top score of 100 came against Essendon who they play in round 3.

THE BAD

Not a lot to go on to consider him a safe option. His final 5 games in that 10 game stint in defence also produced scores of 54, 64, 56, 77, 62 – Not great. In fact, it calculates to about an average of 62.6 which is pretty much the average he is priced at in SuperCoach this year.

 

THE UGLY

As a forward, Crozier scores terribly. Both in SuperCoach and actual terms. If Luke Beveridge decides to backflip and sends him to help out in the forward half of the ground he won’t be any good to us. According to this season’s AFL prospectus, Crozier is rated below average for goals, shot at goal accuracy and score assists.

THE SUMMARY

Overall, there is not a lot to go on considering the small sample size we have for the defensive position he has been recruited for. The signs are good, but we have nothing to really bite at to quash our fears in selecting him. He had some nice scores, and his metres gained is a nice stat, but what will he be like as his new club? And will Luke Beveridge prefer to play new players like Ed Richards or Aaron Naughton over him or alongside him? What will that do to his scores? We don’t know, because there is such a small sample size. On the positive side though, we know what he can do if given the freedom to run and make the play across half back, and that’s something to monitor closely during the JLT series, because that’s probably our best indication of what to expect.

THE VERDICT

He was in my team when I started writing this. Now he is part of an contingency plan for my team, based on round one selections, and pending his JLT form.

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Comments (54)

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  1. Post_MaSloane says:

    Wow, not a player I would have ever thought of. Thanks Damo. He would be a massive pod and if you are right in your predictions, an 88.4 average would be a great return for his price. Not for me though, if he shows some form I might jump on the bandwagon 😉

  2. The BONT says:

    Im not convinced on Danger this year would it be better to go with:

    Danger and Christianson
    or
    Kelly and Petracca

  3. leedy says:

    If I may … in reality that 10 game spell Crozier "spent in defence" only the first 5 or thereabouts were purely as a defender. After that he was shifted forward during games. I know because I was salivating at the thought that Freo had found a replacement for the Duff man. He reads the play exceptionally well and has a long accurate kick. Has always been a great mark too. After those first four of five games in defence Ross couldn't help but tinker around throwing him onto the wing and back and forth to the always non functioning forward line. Could be a huge POD and reward the plumsters handsomely.

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      Spot on, leedy. Damien mentions the final 5 games of that 10 game stretch in ‘the bad’ section

  4. Claire says:

    Thanks Damien. And Leeds , above also. Very interesting.
    A query from a relatively new Supercoacher.
    Some advice I have read suggests that a good initial plan is to go for 10 premiums, no more than 5 mid priced players and say 15 rookies.
    Using my forward line as an example –
    Heeney @ $536K would be a premium and McLean, $470, D Smith $439K, Petracca $433 and Christensen $267 would be classed as mid pricers and say Rayner, $203 a rookie. If the advice I have read is correct that is 4 mid pricers just on my forward line!
    What is the cutoff price between the grades. Is it only price or do other factors come into it?

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      Hey Claire, best of luck for the season. The best way to look at it would be to class a “premium” as someone you, injury and form permitting, don’t plan to trade out. Heeney, McLean and Smith should serve you well. Trac is a 50/50 call. Christo would be unlikely to be in the top dozen forwards and you should look to trade him out once he hits his peak price

      • neil.Demons Delight says:

        kev if I think Bundy is staying he becomes a premium and someone else may like Dahl all year so he is a premium in their view.. Too much — 250-500 midpricer above premium. .GAWN 503 k is a premium Dahl 498k a midpricer Easy for us all Someone " you don't plan to trade out " is a KEEPER simple this way

        • Claire says:

          This is a little confusing Neil. Kev’s formula is a little clearer to a newie like me.
          So you are saying that $500+ is a premium. My premiums are: Laird, Hibberd, Dangerfield, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Jacobs, Gawn & Heeney.
          $250 to $499 (Say) is a midpricer. Mine are: Seedsman, Bonner, O’Meara, McLean, Smith & Petracca.
          Up to $249 is NOT a midfielder. I don’t know enough about the recently drafted players yet so my team is incomplete. I’m thinking about Cheney ($242K), James Cousins ($209K) & Rayner ($203K) Surely the first can’t be classified as rookies. I have a lot to learn and the Damien type stories and replies are very SC educational to me.

          • neil.Demons Delight says:

            we have to have a cut off point somewhere same as Dahlhouse @ 498k not a premium We use these cut off points to give advice.. good luck to you Claire these sites will help you a lot try fantasy supercoach .com for top articles videos and heaps of good advice you will enjoy it and improve cheers

    • Derek says:

      Try working backwards.

      Write down your ultimate team as if money was not limited. A team to start, not finish so take into account injury history.

      These are your “keepers”. Was Devon and McLean in there? Shaw?

      Everyone else in your team are there to make you money.

      Pick Danger.

      Then pick 2 defenders, 4 mids, 1 ruck and 2 forwards. Gives you 10.

      Pick your starting keepers on “value” because you can’t have them all. I think Buddy and Menagola are overpriced. It is usually a gut feeling, knowing that nearly all of them will drop in price at some point, but some will drop more.

      Previous years I’ve tried to squeeze 14 “keepers” into starting team, but was fooling myself to think a few of the were real keepers.

      Hope that helps

      • Derek says:

        Make that 2 rucks.

        • Claire says:

          Thanks Derek. Very encouraging to me because I am close to your formula but having 5 not 4 mid premiums and 1 not two forwards. So, perhaps ditch Mc Lean and pick Greene, Winfield, Billings, or even Dahlhaus ($499K). You seem to know what you are talking about, who would you recommend?

          • Derek says:

            the forward line traditionally drop in price more than other lines, mainly because of the key position forwards who's starting price is based on their whole 2017 year, but as you know it can be feast or famine with them.

            i like to look for forwards who are genuine midfielders, because that is where the consistent points will come from.

            menagola, Heeney, Billings and barlow are all on my keeper list because of this.

            Buddy makes my list because he is very good.

            The final place was going to be RGray, but i'm not sure now as it doesn't look like he will be playing much in the guts.

            • D_I_L_D_O_R says:

              I also like to steer clear of loose cannons, blokes that are really valuable in your team but have the temper of a 4 y/o. Ie. Greene, Gray, DeGoey, Stringer

            • Claire says:

              Is it best to pick new rookies valued at $200K or those around $123K. I read somewhere that the dearer rookies don’t make as much as the cheaper ones. I don’t get it? Obviously the new players have to get a handful of games to make some money. Also, when is it best to sell a rookie. Lots to learn!

              • Russty_ says:

                Hey Claire, the ones you need to pick are the ones you are certain will play round 1, they could be a mixture of cheap and expensive rookies, but trumped up rookies who don't get a game won't do you any good at all.
                So, you might have to make several decisions regarding that on the last selection night before the first game.
                The key with rookies is, trade them out when they've made their maximum money, or keep them if they're scoring well enough…but that is rare.
                Rookies are for making profit off, to upgrade to reliable premium players.

          • gator59 says:

            Hi Claire if you want a decent league to get into which derek and a few well named coaches are in … Oceans 14.. code…262945 welcome aboard if you want.. Just let me know your team name.. Cheers gator… btw Derek and Neil are very good mentors

            • Claire says:

              Thanks but no thanks. I am a novice and I’d be embarrassed getting thrashed by you experienced SCers. However I’d appreciate som3 advice occasionally.

              • gator59 says:

                I hear what you are saying but there's only one way to learn this caper and that is to play against some of the best and learn from your mistakes and see how they go about it.. So don't be embarressed.. We all had to start somewhere and i'm giving you the opportunity to come into a league that already have 2 women in it and I say good on you for having a go.. Just remember you can join up to 10 leagues and this could be one that you can learn from for future years to come.. So Please have a go

                • Claire says:

                  I’ve spoken to my boyfriend Pete and together we will give it a go. I’ll use his email address. So our team is called ‘Another PP’. He claims? He played SC about 4 years ago however I think he is as clueless as me. Is there a booby prize?

                  • Russty_ says:

                    You'll be right Claire, just dump guys when they start losing money and jump onto guys when they start knocking out good scores and you'll be ok.
                    Also, sometimes you have to hang onto guys for a bit longer than you think if you believe they can turn it around…and are keepers.
                    Above all, make sure you have trades left to go into the finals, maybe 6.

                  • gator59 says:

                    Hi Claire,,No booby prize sorry.. You may be surprise yourself and do ok … One thing I have learnt over the journey is DON'T be afraid to ask questions ..You'll be surprised on how many coaches will try to help if you have a problem.. If not on this page head over to fantasysupercoach.com where there is a lot of info and articles that are brilliant.. cheers and thanks for joining and good luck..

    • Lekdog says:

      I’m more flexible with the premium title (I actually have a different set of categories I use but it hasn’t caught on yet), in midfield and ruck $500k+ although in the mids you need a couple captain worthy players I.e Fanger and Dusty. In the forwardline and backline I go $450k plus for premium

      • neil.Demons Delight says:

        It would be a lot easier if we all used the same system but give credit LEk I think 50k less at the bookends makes sense but what of the midpricers You get rookies like Weiters who were well over 200k so its got to start later that's why many use the 250 k cutoff

  5. SC_Kev7 says:

    He will need a very special JLT and a few other guys to fall over to assure me he would be #1 choice rebounder at the Dogs.

    Applaud the out of the box thinking though

  6. Danners says:

    Good stuff Damien! Too much risk for me, in that price range where he would have to make a quick $150k or become a premo. I can't see Crozier doing either of those. Would rather spend the extra $100k on D.Smith or Petracca

  7. TommyC99 says:

    I am actually considering taking Mcevoy over Jacobs. Thoughts?

    • Derek says:

      Ceglar is prob not going to be ready for round 1, so if he isn’t named don’t get too excited about McElroy being a lone wolf.

      Clarko loves the two ruck structure and it won’t be long before Ceglar is playing

      Pittonet it also a chance to play.

  8. PDAP says:

    Gator. I’m looking for a league to join that will improve me. I finished in the 9000’s last year.
    What do you reckon.

  9. Seeker says:

    Nice one Damien.

    As a Bulldog member I am rapt to have Crozier at the club. I just can't start him in SC, however. I think he could be a solid POD upgrade if he does fulfill his promise across halfback, though!