Hey Community. Kev here. Lek, Patch, BvC – those are the guys that stood up and kept the Jock Reynolds train rumbling for another season.
Patch just roped me in because, umm, err…. he needed someone to get the coffee? Someone to get him his pre-podcast danish? (he won’t go on without his danish). Whatever the reason, I’m still learning the ropes, and what do you do to the the guy that’s still learning the ropes? You haze him horribly and give him the jobs that are impossible to find the answer to. What in God’s Jock’s green earth do I do?
(I’m joking. I’ll do my best)
Danger v Dusty v Titch… where do I start? I could just reel off a bunch of stats and accolades these guys have received over the past 12 months, but that would be too easy and also very boring. Why shouldn’t you start with these guys? For the sake of an argument, going in with all three is not something I’d advise. All three will set you back just over $2m of your starting salary cap. 20% on three players. Yes, it will be difficult to trade these guys in, but it’s also going to leave things tight elsewhere.
Why shouldn’t you pick Dangerfield?
Average: 136.2 from 21 games
Ceiling: 15 times scored 130+
High score: 196
2018 price: 749,800
The argument for not starting Danger is his price is just way too high. Which is fair enough. Even the most one-eyed Geelong supporter will admit that 750k is just not sustainable. So just how far will he drop? I took his 3-game average from his first 8 opponents in 2018: Melbourne, Hawthorn, West Coast, St. Kilda, Port Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, and Collingwood, and crunched the numbers.
As you can see, it’s a straight slope down to the Swans in round 6, following that game you can possibly pick him up for around 675k before he faces the Giants in round 7, a team that he has a 3-game average of 161 against. With all things being correct and equal, he’ll have scored 738 points at an average of 123 following round 6.
There also the teeny tiny issue of some bald-headed Jesus type figure rejoining the Cats this year. This bald-headed Jesus – BHJ if you will – averaged 13.7 contested possessions a game last year. 9th overall. (Danger averaged 17.9 – 1st, Jelwood 13.6 – 10th). I can only straight up guess what this means for Danger. If he ends up spending more time forward then in the two H&A games that Fanfooty lists him as a starting forward he took 21 marks, kicked 8.8, averaged 29 touches and managed a SuperCoach average of 153.
The takeaway: Scroll back up a bit. Yeah, he’s gonna drop. It’s best you just deal with it and accept the fact that he’s not just your everyday premium. He’s a rolled gold uber premium that has averaged 130+ in consecutive years. He’s going to be a cracking VC/C option and when he goes bloody bananas, he scored above 130 FIFTEEN times in 2017, you don’t want to miss out. Are you willing to forego this just to save yourself 75k?
Why shouldn’t you pick Dusty?
Average: 119.5 from 22 games
Ceiling: 8 times scored 130+
High score: 166
2018 price: 656,800
There’s some rumblings that Dusty is a poor starter. Especially against Carlton. After a 51 in 2015 and an 86 in 2016, he torched them in 2017 with a 33 possession/4 goal game that was worthy of a 159.
2017 was the first season Dusty averaged over 108, so simply going back and looking at how he starts the year won’t tell the whole story. In the table below, the left-hand column is his first 8 games from 2017. On the right is his 3-game average for his first eight opponents for this year
|First 8 games – 2017||3-game average v first 8 opponents – 2018|
|Average – 107.8||Average – 112|
Now let’s look at two things:
- If he repeated his 2017 start priced at 656k, what would his price be at the end of round 8? (blue line)
- With his 656k starting price and 3-game averages against his first 8 opponents, how will his price look after round 8? (green line)
He started 2017 at a price of 588k, almost 70k less than his 2018 stating price. His steep drop off line is expected as he only averaged 107 in this time. The green line is the much more interesting one I think. Even with sub 100 3-game averages in round 4 and 5, his price won’t take a massive hit. He’ll be priced at just under 600k at the end of round 8 (594k).
The takeaway: Again, I’m only working with averages here so please don’t take this as permission to come at me with knives and pitchforks if it doesn’t work out exactly like this. If the green line is close to being correct then he’s decreased in price 62k and averaging 112.
Why shouldn’t you pick Tom Mitchell?
Average: 118.8 from 22 games
Ceiling: 5 times scored 130+
High score: 161
2018 price: 653,500
They say to never look a gift horse in the mouth. I think… I dunno, I don’t know animals. In this clumsy metaphor the horse is the Horse himself, John Longmuir, and the gift is Tom Mitchell. Tom was prancing about in the NEAFL gathering touches like he’d brought his own footy. Horse questioned the value of his gift. His gift was ultimately shipped off to the Hawks. The Gift went bloody off his chain and averaged just under 36 touches a game.
What immediately stands out for me is despite the fact he’s getting serious leather poisoning week-in, week-out, he only recorded 5 games above 130. As such, the knock on him is that he just isn’t damaging enough. Almost 22 of those 36 are handballs. His “metres gained” sits at 308m per match. This is not that great. Dusty was 482m and Danger 441m for this stat last year.
What I’ve done for Tom is the same what I did for Dusty. I took his first 8 scores from 2017 and used them at his 2018 starting price of 653k to see what happens (blue line). The green line shows his 3-game average from his first 8 opponents in 2018.
*Note: Hawks play Sydney in round 8, so there is only two games of data. I took the average of these to be his third game.
Titch had a huge finish to the year (126.5 in his final 4, 124.5 in final 8) as such, his 653k starting price is just a little bit too big for his boots. If you want to gamble on an early season shocker (he scored 85 against Geelong in round 4, 2017. Hawks play them in round 2 this year) you may be able to snaffle him early for under 600k.
Simply comparing his green line with Dusty’s doesn’t tell the full story. With an average of 95, his round 7 clash with Essendon seems to be his bogey team. However, he has only played them three times in his career, one of which was his first game of senior footy. He came on as the sub and had 18 touches in a little over a half of footy.
The takeaway: I don’t think it really matters if coaches see Tom as being damaging or not, he’s allowed to prance about and pick up his 35 touches a game so he’s going to get points for it. He’s just so darn consistent in being able to jump out 100+ scores. While he may not have the ceiling of Danger or Dusty, being able to grab him at a significant price drop will be hard to do
Ughhhh, I don’t want to read all that. What’s the answer?
Danger looks like an absolute must play for mine. The annals of SuperCoach are littered with cases of players ruining their jocks with skid marks before, but for Dangerfield to even be remotely affordable he’s going to have to ruin multiple pairs. This guy just doesn’t do consecutive bad weeks. He’s a pretty rooster too, he cares too much about his jocks to ruin multiple pairs like that.
Dusty or Titch? There’s not a whole lot between them. It’s the ceiling of Dusty v the consistency of Titch. If you’re playing the bye rounds this year then Tom’s round 12 bye will be very useful. The round 14 bye is filled to the brim the premium round 14 midfield talent (Crouch, Sloane, Fyfe, Danger, Gaz, Dusty, the Sydney boys) so if you find yourself to be absolutely decimated that week then taking Titch over Dusty is something I’d look into.
If you’re going for overall or taking a #yolo approach to the byes this year, then locking in all three from the start gives you some serious fire power right from the get go.
Best of luck, Community. There’s no right or wrong answer here, go with your gut feel and whatever it is you decide absolutely own that. If I had all the answers I’d be able to do that dolla dolla bills thing but I get anxiety over my tap and go card working when I’m at the shops.