Charlie Curnow has been spoken about as a breakout contender since the second Supercoach closed in 2017.

Blues fans think he’s ready to become the next Anthony Koutoufides but I believe that a more apt comparison would be with Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin.

Before you jump into the comments and tell me I’m an idiot, I’m not suggesting that Curnow will kick 100 goals in a season and win countless goal kicking awards. I do think that he could replicate that Supercoach career of Buddy Franklin.

In his first season, Buddy averaged 59.4 Supercoach points per game, in year two this moved to 63 and in his third year he broke out with an average of 91.3 across 20 games.

In Curnow’s first season he averaged 49.2 Supercoach points, this jumped to 74.2 in his second year and based on the second half of 2017, could jump well past 90 in season three.

Whilst Supercoach scoring has drastically changed since Buddy’s second year in 2006 (the only way to break the ton was basically kicking six or more goals), his jump in average related to his movement up the ground and an ability to rack up possessions outside of the goal square…although he was still pretty good playing deep forward.

In 2018, Curnow is set for a move up the ground and *touches all the wood* should make more of an impact on the scoreboard when he plays forward. His ability to impact around the ground as well as in front of goals (rightly or wrongly) reminds me of a young and majestic Buddy.

CURNON: THE FACTS

2018 facts $408,100 FWD
2017 games 21
2017 average 74.2
2017 100+ scores 4
2017 sub-80 scores 14
2017 highs and lows High of 122, low of 37

In 2017, Curnow averaged 92.7 Supercoach points per game from Round 14 onward.

In his last 8 games Curnow averaged 90.6 Supercoach points with 15 disposals per game, 7.7 contested possessions, 2.8 tackles and 1.3 goals. These numbers are all above average for forwards his age and he achieved them it in just 77% game time.

It’s pretty safe to assume the Curnow’s tank will have improved in the off-season and that he’ll being seeing some more game time throughout 2018.

THE GOOD

Curnow showed some really positive signs in 2017 and he’s going to be a big part of Carlton’s future moving forward.

He has shown an ability to score above 90 Supercoach points on a somewhat consistent basis and in a year of poor forward options this could be priceless. In particular his tackles, contested possessions and marks excite me.

Carlton has indicated that they want Curnow to play through the midfield when Cripps is playing up forward. I don’t know if that’s good for the Blues but it’ll probably be good for our Supercoach sides…I hope.

THE BAD

There’s every chance that giving up F2-3 for a breakout candidate who has only played 27 games and will be in a poor side could blow up in your face.

Curnow has the scope to post some less than desirable scores as a forward target, if Carlton decide he’s the man to use as a permanent forward we’ll be in trouble.

THE VERDICT

I think that if you lined up all the breakout contenders for 2018, Curnow would be the one who fills you with the least dread.

He has everything laid out before him to become a prolific Supercoach scorer for many years to come. In 2018 he has an opportunity to play around the ground, kick goals, lead Carlton’s attack, improve upon his tank and combine his attacking instincts with his defensive pressure to become a complete player.

An average of 92.7 across his last ten games in 2017 is enough for me to lock him in. His low price tag, his potential and a lack of other forward options are just an added incentive.

I’d love to hear what you all think but before you ask, yes my Carlton bias might be getting in the way and yes I’ll be backing him to the hilt.

Let me know community, are you picking Curnow?

 

Follow Lekdog on Twitter @Lekblog


55 Comments

Krups · 17/02/2018 at 18:44

In my team at F3

    Lekdog · 17/02/2018 at 21:07

    Very good

gaveday · 17/02/2018 at 18:45

Not for me old china, but a curious watchlist candidate. Likely output depends on the blues form and while they will be better, will they be "that" good?

Dubious proposition for rd 1, mid season target maybe.

    Lekdog · 17/02/2018 at 21:06

    I don’t think they’ll be good, but they will hopefully be better at executing the game plan and I think Charlie is a big part of that

      Paul · 04/03/2018 at 09:24

      How many games did Carlton win when he was averaging 90+ late last year?

Steeeve · 17/02/2018 at 18:57

Have just taken all safety out of ny team and added Curnow. And Coniglio. And JOM. And heater Shaw. And Petracca. Wooooo preseason

    Lekdog · 17/02/2018 at 21:06

    Yolo

StevoRivo · 17/02/2018 at 18:58

Like him a lot Lek, but have a preference for
Mid- Fwds at F1-3 for now. So for now Petraca just ahead at F3.

hedski · 17/02/2018 at 19:04

I've had him and Petracca as F2 and F3 for most of the preseason but seemed a bit thin, I've taken Tracca as F3 now, DPP and more mid time has him ahead of Charlie atm. Could still make his way back into my side yet.

    Lekdog · 17/02/2018 at 21:06

    I like taking a risk in the forwardline this year, too 6 could be anyone

James · 17/02/2018 at 19:08

Did Cripps play in the last 8 games of the season were Curnow averaged 90? If not then would Cripps steal his points?

    Lekdog · 17/02/2018 at 21:05

    I don’t but I to the whole stealing point thing. The points still have to be allocated to someone. When a player like Curnow or Cripps come back generally those missing points come from the bottom 4-5 players, not the top tier. Exceptions can be aster Martin and Archie Smith but that’s a direct result of a different gameplay.

    David C · 19/02/2018 at 09:40

    Gibbs out and Cripps in, should cancel each other out.

      Paul · 04/03/2018 at 09:26

      Docherty out too. That's a lot of points for someone to take

Canny · 17/02/2018 at 19:24

I understand the selection of Curnow, but I haven't had him in any of my preseason drafts so far and I can't see that changing. Devon Smith for 30k more is a more solid option imo and I'm even playing with the idea of Mitch Robinson from Brisbane at 406k at the moment. Still very early days, Charlie will be on the watchlist come JLT.

    Lekdog · 17/02/2018 at 21:05

    Ive looked at Robbo but his ceiling isn’t there for me. Smith is a delicious prospect

      Canny · 20/02/2018 at 00:15

      I think I've got some bias towards Curnow, come to think about it. I remember hopping in the car after a game in under 16s against Torquay and Dad told I had played against Ed Curnow's brother and that he played really well. I didn't see him get a touch and couldn't understand the fuss about him. 3 years later he gets drafted to Carlton and at the time I had no idea why. To his credit, his back half of last year proved he more than belonged at the top level.

      The more that time passes, the more I'm warming even more to Mitch Robinson. I reckon he'll get more midfield time this year and that will boost his average for a guy who loves a tackle and a contested possie. It will also lower the amount of 60s-70s he tended to pump out when he was restricted to playing more of a forward role. And when he does go forward, he still does a bit with his goals and tackles etc. Currently sitting at F3 behind Smith and Heeney.

psycho Muppet · 17/02/2018 at 19:48

You also need to take into consideration his brother Ed curnow who was out for a lot of last season too….. curnow took some of his points. I like Charlie but I am not sure of him increasing his input and as a mid priced aaround 400k, he is risk v reward.

    TRIGGA_HAPPY · 17/02/2018 at 22:01

    On the flip side some of docs points have got to go to someone

SC_Kev7 · 17/02/2018 at 20:48

Not for me this year, Lek. Buddy comparison is nice, that 10 game stretch he was good one week, poor the next. His TOG% is already low 80’s, so any bump in scoring will be from greater consistency rather than an increased role.

He’ll still play predominately forward you’d think. A consistent KPP? Nah

    Lekdog · 17/02/2018 at 21:02

    I don’t think the Blues try and play him as a KPP, not really Bolton’s style. We’ll see what happens in JLT though. I think the forward line is where we can take risks this year

    TRIGGA_HAPPY · 17/02/2018 at 22:27

    Hey mate good to see u up and about.
    The last 10 games.
    92, 83, 118, 76, 112, 97, 64, 122, 102, 61.
    If u take out the last game where he was probably cooked and a bit banged up after a long season its only 1 bad score in the 10 games.

    I reckon i would take that from a fwd this year. 👌

      thedallillama · 17/02/2018 at 23:09

      that, and we got flogged by Sydney

thedearluncher · 17/02/2018 at 21:21

Would take some serious testicular fortitude to pick him.

Willymack1234 · 17/02/2018 at 21:40

Walters or Tracca?

    SC_Kev7 · 18/02/2018 at 08:35

    Walters

    Tibor · 19/02/2018 at 07:20

    Walters plays in a side coached by Ross Lyon. Petracca is a better player. Clear choice imo.

John · 17/02/2018 at 21:44

Currently at F2 I'm willing to go thin at the forward line at this stage

TRIGGA_HAPPY · 17/02/2018 at 21:57

Ive had him in my team since day dot locked in at F4.

Decent old analyis too. Be crazy good if he pulled a buddy.

Whitey · 17/02/2018 at 21:59

Leo, would you take Charlie over Sicily?

    Whitey · 17/02/2018 at 22:00

    Lek I mean, six.

    TRIGGA_HAPPY · 17/02/2018 at 22:02

    Not Lek or Leo but a big yes from me.

    Finnius123 · 20/02/2018 at 08:48

    I am going Sicily

Holmes_Heroes · 17/02/2018 at 23:31

I've got Lobb in F3 at the moment but since he's under a cloud as to whether he'll play Rd 1 i think Curnow is probably a decent back up option. BTW I need to mention that i was a fellow victim in the burns ward due to Tex. In my defence I had just watched him tear my Bombers a new one and may have put him in whilst suffering PTSD.

Pieman · 18/02/2018 at 00:45

Mate you're not paying for it so stop whingeing

    BlueGreg · 18/02/2018 at 00:47

    Rubbish has always been free Pieman what's your point?

John · 18/02/2018 at 01:22

Laird, Brayshaw(Freo) Curnow
OR
Ellis, Cripps, Forward Rookie

    Tyruddanaut · 18/02/2018 at 08:24

    Number one

Tyruddanaut · 18/02/2018 at 08:23

Bit harsh

SC_Kev7 · 18/02/2018 at 09:19

Disappointed the linked article didn’t end with a whole bunch of heart emojis tbh

He averaged less than half a tackle more if you split his season (first 11 v final 10) 2.8 v 3.2. Hardly relevant.

sc tragic · 18/02/2018 at 10:21

I currently have him at F4, shallow pickings for forwards this year. Sometimes you have to risk it for the biscuit. Will continue to monitor in JLT.

korza · 18/02/2018 at 11:15

Dermott Brereton, quoted on SEN radio, that Curnow will be the AFLs best player. Attached is a link to this https://www.sen.com.au/news/2017/07/24/young-blue

    Craig Nugent · 18/02/2018 at 11:44

    And Dermott thought Trent Mckenzie was the best player out of that particular draft. I don't mind Dermott but he is no better than the rest of us when it comes to picking young talent

    @wheels_1987 · 23/02/2018 at 11:52

    thanks for adding the link !!!

Cade · 18/02/2018 at 14:14

In my team. Absolute lock based on his later half of his season and take out the game against Sydney where we got flogged then he averaged mid to high 90's.. Should score very well.

Defying_Madness · 18/02/2018 at 18:10

No need to be so rude

paul · 18/02/2018 at 19:01

I have Lobb as my F4 as we all know the number one ruck he will score well and probably constantly however if he is not going to start
round one i will need to make a change.The way i look at it is there is three contenders which i will be keeping a eye on in the JLT Curnow,Stringer and Jake Melksham. Stringer may go well in Ess Mid field and Melksham well i watched all the games on tv and he is the fittests footballer i saw from Thury and fridy nights games. I know it is different footy but he is fit. So for me it's a wait and see over the next few weeks with the JLT if Lobb is not fit for round one.

INPieman · 18/02/2018 at 20:27

Not the worst mid pricer. I didn't get angry reading this review. Which is unlike me. Looks like he's heading towards being a beast of a player. Is he a reliable SC option. Probably not yet. In the 250-500k options I personally have quite a few ahead of him. At a similar price & with DPP I'd role the dice with Sicily ahead of the Kouta the 2nd

    Lekdog · 21/02/2018 at 18:24

    The world loves Sicily and I totally get going him over Curnow but for me, I like the Blue Bagger

neil Demons Delight · 19/02/2018 at 18:42

much prefer Mclean or petracca both similarly priced.

    Lekdog · 21/02/2018 at 18:24

    McLean in one of my upcoming articles, has a lot of upside to him

Russty_ · 19/02/2018 at 20:50

He wasn't bagging anyone out, he was expressing his point of view..sounds like you're bagging him out about that.

Sandor · 19/02/2018 at 21:22

I'd rather my nans left nut sack then that useless prick Curnow. Way tooo expensive for what he is, especially with cheaper options who are superior available.

Trevor Rubbish · 20/02/2018 at 22:47

For Christ's sake nan! Would you put your left nut sack away, we are trying to eat dinner!

@wheels_1987 · 23/02/2018 at 11:53

Great POD with potential

Big NO from me though – I would prefer Christensen in the team – cheaper

Comments are closed.