He’s not the Tom Lynch I have a soft spot for, but he still lives up to the name by being a heck of a player. 2018 shapes up to be a big year for this Lynch, coming into free agency, he’ll have plenty of high dollar offers on the table from Victoria, but he’ll still need to show the world he deserves a big million dollar + year a deal.
This, is a potential win for us, with the fortunes of the Suns in 2018 depending highly on the play of TJL. The forward line is a giant toss-up this year, there’s value all over the place, the trick will be finding just where the heck it is.
Tom J. Lynch : THE FACTS
|2018 Facts||$467,600 FWD|
|2017 100+ Scores||7|
|2017 Sub-80 scores||7|
|2017 Highs & Lows||High of 161, low of 29|
Lynch started last year in a similar position, costing $507,200 to start 2017, but he wasn’t able to replicate the form he showed in 2016, his average falling from 93.2 down to 85.1, while also seeing a downtick in important Supercoach areas for key forwards, goals (down from 66 to 44, or 0.7 less a game) and in contested marking, his average halving from 2.8 (1st in the league in 2016) to 1.4, with his marks inside 50 also going down from 3.5 to 2.2. All in all, he still had a good year for a key forward, but it wasn’t the greatest year from Tom Lynch, knowing what he is capable of delivering. The Suns were a mess across a range of areas last year, so it’s hard to completely blame him though.
Tom Lynch is a damn good player, we cannot forget that no matter how much he disappointed us last year. His best season in 2016 saw him average 93.2 SCPoints, which based on last years results puts him as a top 10 FWD for Supercoach. In a year where there’s a lot of speculation, that is going to be a good result.
The Suns also have a new coach on board, and while they have lost the Little Master in Gary Ablett, their midfield was a complete mess last year in terms of consistency. The hope will be this year they can get a stable core of midfielders delivering the ball inside 50.
We also cannot discount his 2016 season which saw him rank 4th in goals, 3rd in marks inside 50, 1st in contested marks, 5th in goal assists and 5th in ToG% (1st in 2017). If he can reach those heights, or better, then he’ll be a quality pick. Even with his down year in 2017, he was still ranked as an elite key forward by Champion Data.
Lynch also has the advantage of the Round 10 bye, which means he will be available for every round during the standard bye rounds, which will mean you will have one less headache to worry about trying to field a full side during this time.
The Suns will open up 2018 playing away from Metricon until Round 11 VS Geelong. Last year Lynch averaged 78.6 SCPoints away from home (92.2 at Metricon in 2017), which is not going to cut it for us if he replicates that sort of form to open 2018.
Thankfully the Suns haven’t been given the hardest schedule in the world during this period, only playing 3 top 8 teams from 2017 (Eagles, Crows and Port Power) in theri first 9 games. Against these sides he averaged 88 SCPoints, though he did have his utterly horrific game against Port Adelaide in China in there, which if you remove puts the average up to 94.9. That’s all mental gymnastics to justify picking him though, the point is, playing so much footy away from the Gold Coast is going to be difficult for any side to deal with.
There’s also the issue with the midfield, which has been ranked as the 17th best by Champion Data. They ranked 15th for Inside 50’s last year, 17th for inside 50 differentials at -7.7, as well as averaging the 17th worse Time in Forward Half differential, averaging 8:08 minutes less than their opponent. They were also 16th for marks inside 50, averaging 10.3 a game (of which Lynch averaged 2.16). The point is, they had a lot of trouble getting and keeping the ball inside their half of the ground, which is going to continue to limit what Lynch can score if it continues.
The price is right, but there’s just too many potential question marks being thrown up to me that make me doubt if he’s capable of putting up a quality average. Those doubts aren’t on Lynch himself, because his talent level is sky high, but the Suns have been a mess and it’s now Year 1 in their newest rebuild, there will be potential bumps in the road which will hurt his potential scoring. At the moment he’s only in 2.2% of teams, which will put him on your radar if you’re looking for a POD pick, but he won’t likely be one i’ll go for.
What about you Community, will you be looking at Tom J. Lynch for your Supercoach side in 2018?