The JR Academy – Week 13
THE ACADEMY – WEEK 13
This week’s Academy and Graduate game will feature RICHMOND V ST.KILDA
Before getting to the JR Draftstars, I would like to highlight three significant promotions for your consideration;
1. The FREE PLAY JR Academy Competition with $100 in prizes on offer. Enter here
2. The $2 JR Graduate Competition offering a vast overlay(explained below). Enter here
3. A $50,000 DRAFTSTARS Sunday Competition for those ready to pit their skill and cunning against the wider Draftstars community. Enter here
The Graduates Ladder
WEEK 7 Graduate Prize Pool Explained
Last week saw another attractive JR Graduate competition prize pool. While 160 entrants each paid an entrance fee of $2 (160x $2 = $320), the prize pool was a staggering $700! This meant that there was an additional prize “overlay” of $380.
When the odds of a successful outcome are stacked heavily in your favour it’s time to play!
Calculating the expected return on last week’s JR Graduate Competition;
When considering any wager one must weigh up the odds and expected return or most likely outcome to result from the bet. Below I have detailed some simplistic mathematics relating to last week’s contest.
Expected Return = Probability of Winning x Average Win Return – Probability of Losing x Amount of Loss
Probability of Winning = 0.53 (85 people collected a prize out of the 160 entrants … 85/160)
Average Win Return = $8.24 (Prizes scaled down from 1st – $105 to 85th – $2.10 … $700/85 = $8.24)
Probability of Losing = 1 – Pr(win) = 1 – 0.53 = 0.47
Amount of Loss = $2
Expected Return = 0.53 x $8.24- 0.47 x $2
In last week’s contest, your expected return on your $2 investment was $3.42….. SIGNIFICANT!!
And now to this week’s game – RICHMOND v ST.KILDA
MCG, Sunday, August 27, 3.20pm AEST
A fascinating game for a number of reasons;
– Richmond are in red-hot form however, last time these two teams met St.Kilda dominated in all aspects.
– Richmond need to win and win well with the possibility of a double chance and first home final still alive. If Geelong win and Richmond’s percentage elevates they can finish 2nd on the AFL ladder. If they loose, The Tigers will be in another sudden-death finals situation.
– The Nick Riewoldt factor can’t be ignored. The Saints will not only go in confident given the outcome the last time these two met but they will certainly be putting it all on the line for the retiring superstar.
Key Game Notes
- Average team Draftstars Pts/Game; RICHMOND – 1548 (16th ranked), ST.KILDA 1660 (5 th ranked)
- Last time they met (MCG Rd.8);
- Draftstars Pts. – ST.KILDA 1827, RICHMOND 1358
- Seb Ross(151 Pts.), Jack Steven(115) and Montagna(102) all had over 30 possessions.
- Neither team chose to tag an opposition player.
- Nankervis 18 hitouts(73 pts) V Longer 39 Hitouts(100 pts)
- Rance(48 pts) on Riewoldt(112 pts) and Astbury(85 pts) on Bruce(81 pts)
- The Saints also beat The Tigers in R22, 2016 – St Kilda 7.13 (55) d Richmond 6.10 (46) …. interestingly, this is the last time The Saints recorded a win at The MCG.
- The Saints rank 5th for uncontested possessions(256/game) while the Tigers rank 18th(219/game).
In a similar scenario to last week’s FREO v RIC game, I feel we should be considering Richmond as the game winners here. The interesting consideration is that Richmond have consistently won games with fewer possessions than their opponent.
Players such as Jack Steven and Seb Ross, both coming off high possession games, will most probably be given freedom with The Tigers once again backing in their own midfield guns.
The Ruck selection appears a choice in two with Longer presenting as a $1,000 cheaper option to Nankervis. Given Longer’s dominance last time they met, this may prove a sound starting point in team selection.
Let’s now consider the Fantasy Insider game point projections;
Fantasy Insider Game Forecasts
[table id=58 /]
What a significant resource! Thanks again to Darryl and his team at Fantasy Insider for allowing The JR Community to access this resource. For those wanting to examine forecasts for other games this week, click the link below.
In exciting news, Darryl and the team are opening up the lineup cruncher for FREE USE to all and sundry.. I highly recommend you leverage this opportunity to your benefit.
BIG NEWS: Fantasy Insider are allowing FREE USE of the lineup cruncher – use the best tool in the business here
Lineups for RIC v STK;
Team Peter_Higgo v Fantasy Insider
I am daring to start without Nick Riewoldt – without any key forwards in fact. I feel this will be a low scoring affair with much of the game being played off Richmond’s half-back line … the Tiger mosquito fleet continually being swatted by the Saint defence.
Roberton, Stevens and Newnes are key link players and I am going with the statistics and forecasting a Richmond win in a game in which St.Kilda out-possess.
Cotchin, coming off a 53 last week seems far too cheap to ignore.
It is interesting to note that the Fantasy Insider machine learning tool and its LineUp cruncher has selected 6 of the 9 players from St.Kilda. The only Tigers it has selected are Graham, Markov and Nankervis. The warning symbol next to Graham and Markov indicate that the forecasts are based on minimal input data so may be unreliable. I would like to add a third warning next to Nankervis. I feel his game last week, scoring 140 points in a rampant Tiger team, may be weighing too heavily into his forecast.
So Before I hand over to you in the comments, please take the time to complete this pre-lockout selection pole.
It is hoped that this tool will provide you with who The JR Community feel are “locks” for this contest. It may also affirm a player you like as a nice POD!