The JR Academy – Week 12
THE ACADEMY – WEEK 12
This week’s Academy and Graduate game will feature FREMANTLE V RICHMOND.
Before getting to the JR Draftstars, I would like to highlight three significant promotions for your consideration;
1. The FREE PLAY JR Academy Competition with $100 in prizes on offer.
2. The $2 JR Graduate Competition offering a vast overlay(explained below)
3. A first-time Draftstars sign-up offer for those yet to join (Jock will be emailing the details of this shortly to those eligible).
The Graduates Ladder
WEEK 7 Graduate Prize Pool Explained
Last week saw a significant boost to the JR Graduate competition prize pool. While 146 entrants each paid an entrance fee of $2 (146 x $2 = $292), the prize pool was a staggering $650! This meant that there was an additional prize “overlay” of $358.
When the odds of a successful outcome are stacked heavily in your favour it’s time to play!
Calculating the expected return on last week’s JR Graduate Competition;
When considering any wager one must weigh up the odds and expected return or most likely outcome to result from the bet. Below I have detailed some simplistic mathematics relating to last week’s contest.
Expected Return = Probability of Winning x Average Win Return – Probability of Losing x Amount of Loss
Probability of Winning = 0.58 (85 people collected a prize out of the 146 entrants … 85/146)
Average Win Return = $7.56 (Prizes scaled down from 1st – $97.50 to 85th – $1.30 … $650/85 = $7.56)
Probability of Losing = 1 – Pr(win) = 1 – 0.58 = 0.42
Amount of Loss = $2
Expected Return = 0.58 x $7.56 – 0.42 x $2
In last week’s contest, your expected return on your $2 investment was $3.54 ….. SIGNIFICANT!!
And now to this week’s game – FREMANTLE v RICHMOND
Domain Stadium, Sunday, August 20, 4.40pm AEST
With both teams coming off disappointing losses and some tantalising sideshows – the return of Harley Bennell, Martin V Fyfe, Richmond’s forward line, Fremantle’s ruck division, the Lachie Neale midfield void ….. this game will be an intriguing affair.
- Average team Draftstars Pts/Game; FREMANTLE- 1544 (16th ranked), RICMOND 1530 (18 th ranked)
- Last time they met (MCG Rd.8);
- Draftstars Pts. – FREMANTLE 1745, RICMOND 1441
- Possessions – FREMANTLE 402, RICMOND 360
- Cothchin(94 Pts.) tagged by Blakely(97 points)
- Walters had 38 possessions(137 pts)
- Bradley Hill had 25 kicks and 11 marks(123 pts)
- Rance(73 pts) on McCarthy(63 pts) and Astbury(66 pts) on Kersten(98 pts)
- Richmond have won four of their past five games at Domain Stadium.
- Both teams have similar scoring ranks; Fremantle average 73 pts/game(ranked 18th), Richmond 86 pts/game(13th)
- While both teams are ranked very closely in disposals, clearances, tackles and stoppages, Richmond’s defence outranks Fremantle’s significantly; Fremantle concede 95 pts/game(15th) Richmond concede 78 points/game(2nd)
- EXPECTED TEAM CHANGES FROM LAST TIME THEY MET
- Notable INS: Richmond will add Prestia and Vlaustin, Fremantle will add Harley Bennell and Stephen Hill
- Notable OUTS: Richmond will be without Caddy, Fremantle will be without Walters, Blakely, Neale and Sandilands.
While it seems hard to mount a case for the out of form and depleted Fremantle side, I feel that they will be competitive in their last home game for the 2017 AFL season.
While I am not prepared to risk a $10,000 spend on Harley Bennell, young Fremantle defenders such as Weller, Ryan and Hughes are of interest to me in this contest as I do forecast another high inside 50m count from the Tigers. I am anticipating the return of Sheridan who, at this stage, I have placed in my team – this of course is subject to change once final teams are announced.
Value hunting will also be an important consideration as I see Martin, Cotchin and Prestia potentially getting the better of Fremantle’s tired and depleted midfield most probably consisting of Fyfe, Mundy and the Hill brothers. Whispers do surround the possible inclusion of the rookie mid, Jack Graham for the Tigers. If he plays he will be hard to pass up on.
Let’s now consider the Fantasy Insider game point projections;
Fantasy Insider Game Forecasts
[table id=57 /]
What a significant resource! Thanks again to Darryl and his team at Fantasy Insider for allowing The JR Community to access this resource. For those wanting to examine forecasts for other games this week, click the link below.
In exciting news, Darryl and the team are opening up the lineup cruncher for FREE USE to all and sundry.. I highly recommend you leverage this opportunity to your benefit.
BIG NEWS: Fantasy Insider are allowing FREE USE of the lineup cruncher – use the best tool in the business here
Lineups for FRE v RIC;
Team Peter_Higgo v Fantasy Insider
As discussed earlier, my team is based on the selection of Sheridan and non-selection of young Jack Graham – this team is very likely to change!
It is interesting to note that the Fantasy Insider machine learning tool and its LineUp cruncher has landed on a stacked Tiger team. I feel it may not be quite so one-sided so I am more than happy to have 5 of my 9 players from Fremantle. This may prove just the point of difference that my team will need to win!
So Before I hand over to you in the comments, please take the time to complete this pre-lockout selection pole.
It is hoped that this tool will provide you with who The JR Community feel are “locks” for this contest. It may also affirm a player you like as a nice POD!