NRL Supercoach Round 23 – LET THE STALKING BEGIN!
The Head to Head Finals have arrived and it’s time to play games with our opponents.
I can’t stress how important it is to keep the integrity of your side while messing with your opponent. I’ve seen many coaches forgetting to either change their VC/C choices or even to rotate their reserves back to their original preferences. It’s always fun to play mind games but just don’t let it backfire on you!
Many of us are in multiple head to head finals and playing mind games isn’t as easy. My only advice is to check both yours and your opponent’s teams multiple times throughout each round; and ALWAYS check the rolling lockout timer!
Overall players are in a different boat but the principal remains the same. Don’t do anything foolish when stalking other teams and always go with your gut when making your decisions.
POD Trades (Under 10% Ownership)
There’s nothing wrong with trading in a player you plan to use on just one or two occasions, but only if you’re primarily playing for H2H glory and you have a few trades up your sleeve. We first need to identify the defensively weak opponents but also the players that are capable of piling on the points.
The Warriors, Titans, Tigers, Knights, Rabbitohs and even the Sea Eagles are currently leaking plenty of points when playing quality teams. Keep an eye on the teams who will be playing these defensively weak sides.
- Solid PODs are normally found among the backs but if you’re looking for a consistent forward then Aaron Woods ($465.1k FRF) could be an option. He’s been scoring quite well over the past ten weeks and has an impressive five round average of 77 PPG. In fact he’s one of just four FRFs averaging over 70 PPG in the past five weeks. Keep him in mind if you’re looking for a change in your forwards.
- Mitchell Moses ($389.1k FE) is one of the better PODs on offer this week. Well, he was a much better pick up weeks ago but he still comes with plenty of scoring potential and a reasonable price tag. Not only has he averaged 76.8 PPG over the past five weeks but he also has a very favourable draw; playing the Knights, Titans and Rabbitohs before season’s end. Try to get him in this week because he comes with a Break Even of -36 and is expected to increase in value by over $50k.
- Matthew Wright ($347.1k CTW) is a high risk option but is looks to be in great form. Manly have a very favourable draw approaching; playing the Tigers, Bulldogs and Warriors over the next week three weeks. Wright has scored four tries in his past three matches and we’re assuming he’ll hold the goal kicking duties through to season’s end. Take the punt if you’re looking for a CTW with extremely low ownership. He’s averaging 70.3 PPG over the past three weeks and should continue to produce good scores.
We’ve got plenty of Vice-Captain options to choose from due to the high number of strong favourites. Those of us with AE nightmares may need to take a gamble by throwing the big C on one of these players. We’re all looking to get ahead somehow and this how we should do it.
We also need to keep in mind that our Head to Head opponents may be basing their VC and C options off who we choose. If we decide to take the gamble early in the round, we’re simply giving our opponents more options to choose from.
- Cameron Smith, Paul Gallen and Nathan Brown are once again the safety choices and even Simon Mannering should be considered now that he’s returned to lock. Two of these options play on Friday, one on Saturday and one on Sunday so there’s no shortage of worthy Vice-Captains to choose from.
- The SuperCoach Community have been throwing around Cody Walker’s name as a viable VC option against the Bulldogs. Walker had a solid game last week and scored a respectable 74 points against the Dragons, but something is telling me that throwing the VC on him this week is a bad idea. There are plenty of better options available this round. The Bulldogs may be in poor form but they’re also known to put in a decent defensive effort from time to time. This could spell disaster for the already inconsistent Walker.
- Semi Radradra/Corey Norman/Mitchell Moses are playing against the Knights on Friday night and should be considered for your VC. Don’t be discouraged by the lack of points the Knights’ have let though against their past two opponents (Dragons and Warriors). The Eels are a much better side than these two and are capable of tearing the Newcastle defence apart. In fact, the last time the Knights played against teams worthy of the finals were in rounds 19 (Broncos) and 20 (Roosters). They managed to concede 62 points during those two weeks so we can’t rule out a dominating performance from the Eels this week.
- Gareth Widdop and the Dragons have been a little inconsistent lately but they’ll be up against a team that let through over 50 points last weekend. Even the Tigers managed to score 26 points against the Titans in the week prior so I think Widdop will be one of the more popular VC choices for round 22. Those of us with AE nightmares could even consider putting Widdop as our captain as we’d have to expect high involvement and plenty of points from conversions against the defensively weak side.
- Billy Slater is always a solid Vice-Captain choice but we should we wary of his opponent this week. We were all a bit shocked witnessing Manly put 36 points on the Roosters last round. The Roosters normally put up a strong fight and it’s rare for a team of their calibre to leak significant points in back to back weeks. They also welcome back Jake Friend and Boyd Cordner so we should expect the Chooks to be well prepared when they play the Storm on Saturday evening.
- Jordan Rapana has a lousy five round average of 47.6 PPG but he repaid the faithful with a 72 point effort against the Sharks last week. Would it be reckless to throw the VC on Rapana after one solid performance? Absolutely not! The Warriors are seriously struggling through this stage of the season and Rapana should be able to cross the line at least once. There’s no need for concern that he’s playing on Sunday, you could always throw the captaincy on Tom Trbojevic who’ll be up against the Tigers in the following match.
- Tom Trbojevic is a great Captain choice for round 23. He’s producing a five round average of 88.6 PPG and he’s up against one of the most defensively weak teams in the comp. Keep in mind that he scored 131 points when he last played the Tigers and that was just four weeks ago in round 19. Tommy Turbo will be one of the most captained players for round 23.
Top 5 Break Evens
(Must have played 2 games and are named in the starting side this week)
Kodi Nikorima ($271.9k HOK/FE): -39
Mitchell Moses ($389.1k FE): -36
Nathaniel Roache ($254k HOK/FLB): -36
Brock Lamb ($283.5k FE/HB): -33
Damien Cook ($264.8k HOK): -33
Bottom 5 Break Evens
(Must have played 2 games and are named in the starting side this week)
Simon Mannering ($512.5k 2RF): 133
Nathan Cleary ($527k HB): 132
Gareth Widdop ($464.3k FE/HB): 131
Wade Graham ($414k 2RF): 118
Aidan Sezer ($351.3k HB): 113
Team List Tuesday
Dane Gagai has been moved to fullback for the injured Nathan Ross
Ben Hunt is named at hooker (but may come from the bench again)
James Segeyaro has returned to the bench
Tohu Harris and Cameron Munster won’t play this week
Matt Moylan and Dean Whare are again named among the reserves
Coen Hess will start in the second row
Issac Luke will play from the bench
Semi Radradra to crack 70 points
Tom Trbojevic to crack 90 points
Cody Walker will fail to crack 60 points