CowboyRound21

There’s no point looking back at what we could’ve done better.

The last two rounds have been pure carnage and there are teams out there that will be struggling to field a team worthy of the term ‘run home side’.

Whether you’ve run out of trades or have a handful up your sleeve; here’s my simple advice. First of all, we need to keep in mind that a one or two players may be named but they’re not guaranteed to take the field on game day. This is fairly standard, but considering the recent carnage we need to pay attention to the final team lists more than ever. Finalizing your team prior to game one and ignoring mid-round changes could cost you a decent number of points. Numerous coaches will be fielding 17 Guns so ignorance at this stage of the season will be costly.

Secondly, keep any doubtful players on your bench. This is another standard SuperCoach rule but I can’t emphasize this point enough at this stage of the season. We can easily change reserves but it’s a completely difference story when a late withdrawal is part of your starting side.

Last of all, if you have a couple of trades remaining then don’t waste them on a short term injury. Those of you playing your rookie SuperCoach season should know that the last two weeks have been a SuperCoach phenomenon. The current number of fallen Guns is unbelievable. We’ve never seen carnage of this magnitude before so we need to be extremely careful with how we handle it. If you can field a strong seventeen without using a trade then I’d highly recommend saving it for another time.

I’ve gone full throttle with my trades throughout the season and I’m starting to feel the heat with none remaining. I dropped 25 spots over the weekend and currently sit in 183rd overall. Luckily I don’t own Gutherson or Merrin but I do have Johnson and Harris.

Halves Replacement Options

I thought it might be a good idea to take a look at the ideal replacements for those of you looking for a new halfback or five-eighth. Their scores are very reliant on stats such as tries, try assists, line breaks and line break assists so it’s worth leaning towards someone with a favourable draw.

  • Mitchell Pearce ($429.5k HFB)

Five Round Average: 72.6 PPG

Run Home Draw: Cowboys (H), Sea Eagles (A), Storm (A), Tigers (H), Sharks (A), Titans (H)

Notes: Pearce’s output has been 50/50 when playing against the top sides and he’ll face four of them throughout the run home. Don’t pay too much attention to his ‘lowest score Vs opponent’ SuperCoach stats. Most of his poor performances have been from previous seasons and he’s scored just one game below 70 points since the Origin period began.  His price is fairly reasonable too so he’s definitely worth consideration.

  • Daly Cherry-Evans ($468.8k HFB)

Five Round Average: 76.4 PPG

Run Home Draw: Storm (A), Roosters (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A), Warriors (A), Panthers (H)

Notes: DCE shouldn’t disappoint but it’s very discouraging that he’s up against the Storm and Roosters in the next two weeks. Additionally, he now has a Break Even of 106 after his 32 point effort against the Dragons last weekend. We’d have to expect DCE to be a much cheaper pick up in two weeks’ time but that doesn’t help those who need a replacement this weekend. If you have the luxury of holding off then it seems to be the desirable option. Those that need to act immediately could always take the gamble then expect a run of impressive scores through the final four rounds.

  • Gareth Widdop ($451.8k FE/HFB)

Five Round Average: 80.6 PPG

Run Home Draw: Knights (A), Rabbitohs (H), Titans (H), Broncos (A), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H)

Notes:  Widdop seems to be the most appealing option among the candidates. The Dragons’ run home draw is extremely favourable and he has the added bonus of being the kick taker. His involvement and scoring ability is second to none although the next bloke I’ll I’m going to talk about also puts forward a strong case.

  • Nathan Cleary ($556k HFB)

Five Round Average: 93.6 PPG

Run Home Draw: Bulldogs (H), Tigers (H), Cowboys(H), Raiders (A), Dragons (H), Sea Eagles (A)

Notes: Cleary dominates all other candidates when it comes to his five round average. This is largely due to his 169 point effort in round 19 but we’d have to expect another epic performance this weekend. Cleary thrived in the absence of Moylan last time so owners should consider throwing the VC on the young half. The one and only issue with Cleary is his price. He’s bloody expensive so you may have to perform a significant downgrade elsewhere to pay for Cleary’s services. The Panthers also have a very favourable run home draw.

  • Dylan Walker ($374.1k CTW/FE)

Five Round Average: 59.2k

Run Home Draw: Storm (A), Roosters (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A), Warriors (A), Panthers (H)

Notes:  Walker is a significant downgrade after talking about the likes of Widdop and Cleary. There’s no denying his high scoring ability but he hasn’t exactly set the stage alight in recent weeks. He may be much cheaper than the former candidates but I don’t think he’s worth the risk for the run home, especially since he’s had the goal kicking duties taken away from him.

  • Anthony Milford ($451.4k FE)

Five Round Average: 75.6 PPG

Run Home Draw: Eels (A), Titans (A), Sharks (H),Dragons (H), Eels (H), Cowboys (A)

Notes: The Milf is a very appealing choice and his five round average reflects that. The obvious downside is that his shoulder isn’t 100% so the Broncos will likely be giving him an early shower if the game is already wrapped up. The Broncos have a favourable run home draw and we’re expecting Milford to average well through to seasons’ end. Just be wary that he comes with a little risk so you’d want to have back up if you’re going to bring Milford into your side.

  • Michael Morgan ($435.8k FE)

Five Round Average: 57.0 PPG

Run Home Draw: Roosters (A), Storm (A), Panthers (A), Sharks (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H)

Notes:  Morgo was looking strong through the Origin period but his output has suddenly come to a halt. He’s scored just 44 points over his past two outings and his incredibly tough run home doesn’t look good for his owners. Surprisingly there are a handful of coaches still considering his services but I’d strongly advise to give him a miss as your SJ/Gutho replacement.

  • Corey Norman ($319.3k FE/HFB)

Five Round Average: 51.0 PPG

Run Home Draw: Broncos (H), Bulldogs (A), Knights (H), Titans (H), Broncos (A), Rabbitohs (H)

Notes: Corey Norman can’t be ruled out as a viable replacement. His recent output may be underwhelming but his extremely cheap price and favourable run home draw increase his stocks as a viable candidate. I’d like to see how he goes without Gutho there but this week’s game against the Broncos will be a tough guide. If he can score well this weekend then he needs to be considered for the final five rounds; not as your main half but more as a backup.   

  • Ben Hunt ($394k HFB)

Five Round Average: 69.2 PPG

Run Home Draw: Eels (A), Titans (A), Sharks (H),Dragons (H), Eels (H), Cowboys (A)

Notes: Hunt would not be considered by many coaches but he could be the POD you’re looking for. His five round average is very respectable and the Broncos’ run home is fairly appealing. I’ve really enjoyed watching his style since the Origin period began and his scores have been up with the best in recent times. Don’t’ be surprised if he averages over 65 PPG through the run home.   

  • Jarryd Hayne ($377.7k FE/FLB)

Five Round Average: 66.8 PPG

Run Home Draw: Tigers (H), Broncos (H), Dragons (A), Eels (A), Bulldogs (H), Roosters (A)

Notes: Hayne is a very unique choice for your halves and has the potential to score better than most of the other candidates. His reasonable price adds to his appeal and I really like how he’s up against the Tigers, Eels and Bulldogs through the run home. He can pretty much tear any defence apart so don’t rule him out as your first choice five-eighth option.

 

Top 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and are named in the starting side this week)

Aidan Sezer ($303.5k HFB): -32

Semi Radradra ($371.4k CTW): -23

Chase Stanley ($269.4k CTW): -15

Issac Liu ($246.3k FRF/2RF): -14

Nene McDonald ($337.3k CTW): -9

 

Bottom 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and are named in the starting side this week)

Michael Morgan ($435.8k FE): 161

Josh Dugan ($400.9k FB/CTW): 125

Alex Johnston ($309.6k FB/CTW): 122

Felise Kaufusi ($415.4k FRF): 120

Jarryd Hayne ($377.7k FE/HFB): 113

 

Team List Tuesday

Matt Moylan/Clint Gutherson/Jordan Rapana/Billy Slater/Tohu Harris are all OUT

James Graham has returned from injury

James Segeyaro is named at hooker

Darius Boyd is back and Kodi Nikorima is named in the reserves

Josh Dugan is named at centre while Matthew Dufty retains the fullback spot

Cody Walker has been moved to five-eighth

Sam Burgess and Angus Crichton are both named

Robbie Farah has been moved to the bench

Curtis Scott has been named in the centres

Cameron Munster has been moved to fullback

Api Koroisau is named at hooker

Predictions

Cody Walker to crack 70 points

Cameron Munster to crack 80 points

Jarryd Hayne to crack 70 points

That’s it for this week,  feel free to leave your comments below, or

Twitter : @CKings_Cowboy

23 Comments

Team Crazy · 26/07/2017 at 12:13

Great report mate! Goid luck for round 21.

    Coach_Cowboy · 26/07/2017 at 16:18

    Cheers mate! How are you looking for the run home?

Nick · 26/07/2017 at 12:23

Torn on the reserves. Have Fifita, Gallen, DCE and RTS at the moment. Do I play Taupau over any of those guys. Maybe over DCE? I like RTS at home v the Sharks without Maloney. Fifita and Gallen are no brainers. DCE performs well historically against the storm who are without Slater and maybe Smith. I'm hoping that because they had no ball last week against the dragons that was the reason Taupau's output was well down.

    Coach_Cowboy · 26/07/2017 at 16:26

    I reckon you're spot on Nick and it looks to be a safety v risk strategy. The decision will be between DCE and Taupau (I also like RTS at home). DCE scored 49 against the Storm in round 7 so hopefully he can pull 70 to 80 when they're under strength. I'd go DCE mate. Good luck

Matthew · 26/07/2017 at 12:26

Love this every week. A great read and summary of everthing. Cheers for the effort you put in.
Would you play Scott over Radradra this week? I know Semi is in good form, but playing the Broncos I am assuming his attacking stats will be reduced. Scott at home hopefully returns to form after a poor score last week.

    Coach_Cowboy · 26/07/2017 at 16:33

    Cheers Matthew thanks for reading it mate. That's a tough choice regarding Semi V Scott. I think you're right, Semi v Boncs could score poorly while Scott at home could produce the goods. Why do I have a feeling the Eels will be looking to Semi more now that Gutho is out? Just a hunch, but yeah…against the Broncs will be a tough game. There's also the bounce back factor of Manly getting torn a new one last week so they're going to be trying their best to stop those offensive plays. Honestly it's a VERY tough decision to make and I think they'll both score similarly. If I had to choose one I guess I'd go Semi (no confidently). Sorry I couldn't give you a more concrete answer mate but that's a toughie.

geoff · 26/07/2017 at 13:55

2 trades left, was considering Tohu to Vaughan basically cos I have 0 faith in Tohu and what is going on with his injuries. But I guess I should be holding? Ranked 918, team below.

CS9 (Mcinnes)
Surgess, Gallen (JDB, Taulau)
Mannering, LoLo, N Brown (Taupau, Tohu, nuff)
Widdop (Pearce)
Cody Walker (D Walker)
Chricton, Turbo, Mansour, Semi (Dedwards, Scott, nuff)
Munster (RTS)

    Coach_Cowboy · 26/07/2017 at 16:37

    Solid team and rank Geoff. Looks like you're having a great season mate.
    I can't blame you for wanting to trade out Tohu. He just had a week off and he's still being rested, surely there's something going on there. Your team is almost perfect with nothing but guns and nuffs (now.that Taulau is goneski). I don't think there's anything wrong with going Harris > Vaughan to strengthen that team. That way you don't have to worry about another injury considering Surgess and Smith will take the field this week or next by the looks. You could go the hard yards and nuff out Scott and go Tohu >Jurbo? Just throwing another option at ya mate.

      geoff · 26/07/2017 at 18:19

      Yeah it could be an option, seems like jurbo is a must have. However, as I'm playing h2h as well as OA I was kind of hoping to hold a trade for the late rounds, particularly rd 26 where I can see someone like gal getting a rest or smith.

        Coach_Cowboy · 26/07/2017 at 18:27

        Yeah that's good reasoning mate since you're playing H2H. Vaughan should snag some attacking stats anyway..well..let's hope haha. He like finding the line against easy opponents.

          geoff · 26/07/2017 at 18:37

          Im sure I'll chop and change my team 10 times before lockout so we'll see where I end up. Vaughan could be a risk in itself coming off a calf strain which is pretty prone to re injuring. Teddy also an option?

            Coach_Cowboy · 26/07/2017 at 18:57

            Teddy is always an option and is very reasonably price at this stage. It's a rarity getting an average score from him but I guess he has also earned his former title 'The Glass Man'. I think we're all a little paranoid about injuries due to recent events haha

              geoff · 26/07/2017 at 18:59

              Yeah you're not wrong, decisions decisions.

Jeff · 26/07/2017 at 15:09

Hi, always enjoy your report – great stuff and very well informed. Tossing up over my last trade – need more depth in forwards and giving up on Rapana. Deciding between Vaughan and JDB – who would you go for?

    Coach_Cowboy · 26/07/2017 at 18:20

    Thanks Jeff! Either of those blokes would be OK mate. The Dragons have a very favourable draw and Vaughan finds the line more often than JDB. I'd go Vaughan for that reason only mate.

      Jeff · 26/07/2017 at 18:45

      Thanks – appreciate it, I was leaning that way

Westy · 26/07/2017 at 18:03

Been smashed, Coach.
Gutherson, Harris, Slater, Rapana and Papalii all outs this week.
Gone Gutherson to Widdop
Gone Harris to Dufty.

Dropped 700+ places last round now into the 3000s.

Coach_Cowboy · 26/07/2017 at 18:24

Far out that's bloody unlucky Westy. Gutho to Widdop is gold and Harris to Dufty seems like a good move. Harris not playing this week is a bit sus. Especially since he's already had a week off. No point trading out the others (unless you want to give up on Rapana) and Dufty should hold his spot with Aitken out. He'll be a POD too with many coaches out of trades. I hope your ranking turns around mate.

Chubby McChubby · 27/07/2017 at 17:58

Awesome stuff again cowboy. Nice perspective on things. I've locked in top spot in league so no can hold off on trades this week if needed. I've 7 trades. I have Papali, Gutho, rapana and today however Papali and Rapana back
Next week. I have Lolo and Matagi. Should i look to trade them in for nuffies? Also given other positions have higher avg scoring than halfback, should I be looking to get in Mannering or J Turbo rather than a 2nd gun halfback? Other areas for improvement i have i think is edwards from panthers in ctw and cody walker at fb. 7 trades left and full premo elsewhere

    Chubby McChubby · 27/07/2017 at 17:58

    *Tofu

    Coach_Cowboy · 27/07/2017 at 18:13

    Cheers Chubby!! Well done on wrapping up top spot. Must be having a brilliant season mate. Matagi and Gutho are the two you'll want to get rid of immediately mate. No point holding on to them. both Mannering and Jurbo have been epic and I think you should get one or both of those. If you have Walker at FB then I'd be looking at getting someone like Slater once he returns. I like Melbourne's draw and Slater is playing close to best form. Panthers have a fairly good run home, I kinda like Edwards and I don't think there's any rush to get him out. You could always play him when the Panthers have an easy opponent. Having 5 trades left after those two trades is great! How much $$$ in the bank? I'm assuming you'll have to nuff someone out before getting both Manners and Slater/Jurbo?

Westy · 02/08/2017 at 11:59

Oh the humanity, Coach.
825 points for the round. Top scoring player for the round 71 points. As a point of comparison, Lamb has been rubbish; he wasn't even in my top 17 but outscored over half the selected team.
Have dropped from within the top 1000 in round 16 to outside the top 5000.

As an example of the carnage, this was the team at Round 18 when I was at or about 1000th.
McCullough Brailey (Both cactus now)
Kaufusi, Taupau, Gallen, Matagi (traded out)
SBurgess, Crichton, Fuimaono, Taumalolo, Papalii (suspended since), Marsters (traded out)
Lamb, Johnson (goodbye SJ)
Gutherson Hayne (goodbye Guthers) – (Hayne replaced with Slater in time to get poleaxed)
D Walker (16 points this week), Harris (out injured), Edwards, Mansour (worst mistake), Rapana (suspended since), MWZ, Nofoaluma (traded out)
CWalker , Munster (now out).

I'm laughing because there's no point in getting bent about it.

    Coach_Cowboy · 02/08/2017 at 13:13

    WHOA!! Mate I've seen carnage in a lot of teams but I think you've had the worst luck :(. Chin up Westy. I'm running without a hooker for the remainder of the season :(.

Comments are closed.