The Academy – Week 8
Greetings to all once again for another exciting week of Daily Fantasy combat.
This week’s Academy and Graduate game will be played out over the COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST game – a contest that has me excited to say the least … but more of this after the JR Ladders.
The Academy Ladder
A big week from our good friend, Sven (team sveneris)! He has opened up a 60 point lead and based on average contest rank is fast emerging as our resident DFS expert. It would be wonderful, once again, to hear from our Sweedish marvel in the comments below – I for one will be scanning this post at frequent intervals waiting in joyful hope for his weekly tips.
Special mention also to The_GameSC who is rocketting up the charts.
Can Defying peg Sven back this week? Will STIRLSY redeem himself? Will team Peter_Higgo claw himself back onto the boards?!!
The Graduates Ladder
Given that the Graduates Ladder is based purely on ROI(return on investment), it comes as no surprise that first time successful players appear quickly at the top of the charts. Congratulations to team carear and I encourage this player to strive to maintain this most prestigious of JR Graduate positions.
Congratulations also to the those legends of The Academy whose skills have successfully been applied in the $2 pay-to-play environment, having them appear on both ladders.
And now to this week’s game – COLLINGWOOD v WESTCOAST – SUNDAY, 3.20pm, Etihad Stadium
I have made the decision to take a slightly different tact in my pre-game preparations.
This week, game based data will be supplied solely by the good folk at Fantasy Insider. I do concede that their forecasting tools are superior to mine and using these will afford me the time to delve deeper into the all-important game day match-ups and potential peculiarities.
It has become abundantly clear to me thus far in my DFS explorations that data alone forms but one layer of the team line-up formation process. Data that is carefully blended with game specific insights such as match-ups, venue, history and additional “human motivational factors” all come together in a wonderful strategic pre-game symphony.
Fantasy Insider Game Forecasts
|Josh J. Kennedy||WCE||FWD||11300||81.9||28.77||53.12||139.45||137.97|
|Jordan de Goey||COL||MID||11100||78.4||18.8||59.59||116.01||141.58|
What a significant resource! Thanks again to Darryl and his team at Fantasy Insider for allowing The JR Academy to access this resource. For those wanting to examine forecasts for other games this week, click the link below – you may want to make use of the free trial that is currently available;
My Game Specific Considerations
This promises to be an extremely interesting contest for a number of reasons;
1. Pendlebury Is Not Playing
Who is likely to step in and play more midfield time? Will Adams come up from defence or perhaps Sidebottom will come off his wing. Could it be the inclusion of Greenwood that fills the Pendlebury void?
The answer to this key question will have a great influence on not one but potentially a number of players and their point output.
2. BOTH Collingwood and West Coast are recognised tagging teams
Greenwood should return this week and if so, the most likely outcome for him will be to tag. This year Greenwood has put a hard tag on Selwood, Shiel, Hibberd and Merrett. In other games he has rotated through the midfield, completing tagging jobs at various stages within the game as required. Interestingly, the one week where Greenwood was released, against Fremantle, he scored 111 Draftstars points.
There are many unknowns and challenges to be considered if Greenwood is named that will have a direct result on player point forecasts.
While Hutchings’ role is less-complicated, who he will tag is an unknown. Will it be Treloar, who has been targeted at stages this year, or will it be Sidebottom? WestCoast may even decide to use Hutchings in a forward defensive tagging role on Howe, as teams have done this year quite successfully.
Correctly forecasting the role of Greenwood and Hutchings are key game considerations this week.
3. The game is being played at Etihad Stadium
Etihad is undoubtedly a “fast track”. The firm surface and predictable conditions, in my opinion, favour fast athletic running types. High team possession, quick play and high marking tallies are suited and as such certain players may be better suited to this ground – I must run some data on this!
Given the above, Etihad also seems to make the potential of a game “blow out” result more likely. In a remarkable season in terms of the closeness of game results, Etihad has delivered four 10+ goal margins and 13 5+ goal game winning margins. Do you forecast a one-sided affair or a close battle?
While West Coast are currently match favourites at $1.65, I feel that Collingwood will give a good showing on Sunday.
4. WestCoast are playing away from home
WestCoast’s inability to win away, or more specifically, in Melbourne, was given a solid run via media channels earlier this season. Is this still a factor?
While there may be data to support this claim in games at the MCG, this season The Eagles have played three games at Etihad for two wins (Rd.1 NTH, Rd.15 WBD) and one loss (Rd. 9 ESS).
Insufficient data to weigh into line-up reasoning.
Team Lineups for COL v WCE – Team Peter_Higgo v Fantasy Insider;
Away we go!
I am backing in Collingwood to perform well enough to produce a close game with Treloar to be the highest on-field point accumulator. Am I concerned about Hutchings? Yes.
How do you expect this contest play out?
It would be wonderful to discuss the game in detail in the comments below – STIRLSY, sveneris, Defying, The_GameSC, garysknobs, hedski ….. The Community needs your input!
I am very much enjoying this interesting and highly tactical new form of Fantasy Football – I hope that you are too!