CowboyRound18

Killing two birds with one stone will be your primary goal this week.

Trading for round 18 should be a fairly easy task. Thankfully there are few Keepers and potential Nuffies available for selection so we should be taking advantage of these opportunities. Don’t be tempted by risky Middies or low scoring Cheapies; they could cause a few dramas and are more trouble then they’re worth. I’m talking of course about the dreaded AE nightmares and the players that’ll cost you two trades. Obviously we’re not all in the same boat but most of us need to be careful with each and every trade.

Last week I mentioned that we need to know how our final team will look. This week is no different. I recommend completing your trades and knowing how your remaining trades will be used. Don’t assume that everything will simply fall into place. I speak from personal experience when I say that complacency may cost you a head to head final or a significant drop in overall rank through the final stages of the season.  

I scored 1138 last week which saw me drop 25 spots to 169th overall. I’ll be fielding either 15 or 16 players this week so hopefully I can maintain that position. Good luck to everyone this week; this may be the final round you’ll experience a significant rise or drop in rank.

 

The Controversial

  • Jordan Rapana ($525.3k CTW) has been the best SuperCoach player of 2017 but some owners are prepared to jump ship to strengthen their round 18 side. Is this a wise move?

The Verdict: Coaches can be excused if they decide to ignore the ‘never trade a keeper’ rule when it comes to Rapana this week. The Raiders seem to be on a downward spiral and Rapana will take the field in round 19 with a Break Even of 151. By no means am I saying he’s an ideal trade, although you could consider the thought if your team is in a specific situation.

Let’s not forget the significant positives. Just three of the Raiders’ final eight games are considered difficult so his scoring potential will be quite high on the run home. Rapana has cranked out four 100+ games this season and he has a ridiculous season average of 77.8 PPG. He is simply a scoring machine and you may regret leaving him out of your team for the closing rounds of the season.

Trading out Rapana should only be considered by those that either don’t want him in their run home side, or have excess trades and are willing to reassess after round 19.

  • Curtis Scott ($253.2k CTW) has been a dream for those that traded him in prior to round 17. He’s just generated an outstanding $109.6k in one week and now has a Break Even of -66. Should we be considering him for round 18 if we don’t own him already?

The Verdict: Let me start by saying that there’s no right or wrong decision here. Obviously he was a much better pick up in prior weeks but I wouldn’t rule him out as a viable option for round 18. Given his exceptional output in his past three games, we’d have to expect a solid performance against the Eels this weekend. His Break Even of -66 is very appealing but it may not be worth two trades if he only has one more game in him.

This stage of the season is very cut-throat and we should be looking at how we can get the upper hand on our opponents. Scott is the ideal candidate for those that aren’t struggling with trades or even those that believe that he could replace Blair in the Storm’s starting side. Personally I think this will be his final match but others will disagree due to his impressive output. Proceed with caution. He’s a risky option that could prove beneficial.

  • Cameron King ($132k HOK) seems to be a popular downgrade option due to the lack of quality hookers playing this weekend. Is he worth it or are we getting desperate for round 18 numbers?

The Verdict: Many of us will be looking for downgrade options this week but I don’t think King should be considered. Unless you own someone like Jake Friend or Api Koroisau as one of your hookers you may be better off running without one. King’s output comes with uncertainty and he managed just 30 points from his debut last weekend. Keep in mind that he’ll become an AE nightmare and won’t be worth the second trade to get him out of your team. You’ll be very lucky if he loses his spot and becomes a Nuffie.

  • Api Koroisau ($363.6k HOK/FE) is another of the top ten most traded in players this week. Is he worth a shot or simply just a wasted trade?

The Verdict: Koroisau is a fairly good choice this week but he’s far from a safe option. I guess we can consider him a low risk trade for round 18 but he’s no stranger to scoring 45 points or less. This is probably the only negative but there are numerous reasons why we would consider the Manly hooker. He’s been playing 80 minutes for the past three weeks and averaging almost 60 PPG. He’s also a decent POD in the hooker position considering the only high averaging hooker playing his week is Jake Friend. We also need to remember that he isn’t simply a round 18 number. He will also play round 19 against the struggling Tigers and could even jag some attacking stats in round 20 against the inconsistent Dragons.    

Koroisau is far from a Keeper so you may want to trade him out after his round 20 match. This brings another question to the table. Is he worth two trades if you’re going to use him for just three weeks? Like Scott, he may be more suited to those who have plenty of trades up their sleeve.

 

In Short

  • Tom Trbojevic ($422.7k FB/CTW) will easily be the most traded in player for round 18. If you don’t own Turbo already then you simply need to bring him into your side this week. He has the stats of a Keeper, a Break Even below his average, DPP status and no more bye rounds ahead of him. The only concern at this stage is that he may be a late inclusion into the Origin side if Tedesco and/or Dugan aren’t fit to take the field. Their injuries are minor so I’d consider this an unlikely scenario. Just do it!
  • Andy Saunders ($122.6k FRF/2RF) will play from the bench this weekend and is a great downgrade option if you need cash for Keepers. He’s there due to the absences of Graham, Klemmer and Jackson and should become a Nuffie by round 20. He’ll give you an extra number for this weekend but the Bulldogs are on a bye in round 19.
  • Esan Marsters ($250.3k 2RF) will probably be the most traded out player this week. His Break Even is 23 and he isn’t expected to generate significant coin over the coming weeks. The Tigers are on a bye this weekend so Marsters is the ideal candidate if you’re looking at showing players the door. I don’t think it’s worth holding Marsters for round 19; there are plenty of Keepers available who will take the field that weekend.

 

Top 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and are named this week)

Curtis Scott ($253.2k CTW): -66

Alex Johnston ($337.3k FB/CTW): -37

Nathan Ross ($290.3k CTW): -13

Brodie Croft ($229.3k HB/FE): -8

Raymond Faitala-Mariner ($194.7k 2RF): -5

Bottom 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and are named this week)

Matthew Moylan ($489.7k FB/FE): 135

Isaah Yeo ($407.1k CTW/2RF): 133

Tohu Harris ($361.8k 2RF/CTW): 126

Aidan Guerra ($359.8k 2RF): 114

Martin Taupau ($455.1k 2RF/FRF): 105

Team List Tuesday

State of Origin players won’t play

Tyrone Peachey replaces Whare in the centres

Mitch Rein is named at hooker

Lewis Brown is out injured

Cheyse Blair has returned from injury (this may be Scott’s final game)

Predictions

Cody Walker to crack 70 points against the Chooks on Friday night

Matthew Molyan will struggle to crack 60 points against the Sea Eagles

Nathan Brown to score 75+ against the Storm

That’s it for this week,  feel free to leave your comments below, or

Twitter : @CKings_Cowboy

21 Comments

Westy · 05/07/2017 at 14:18

Hey Coach
Not such a great round. Dropped out of the top 1000,
Current team
McCullough Brailey
Kaufusi, Taupau, Gallen, Matagi
SBurgess, Crichton, Fuimaono, Taumalolo, Papalii, Marsters
Lamb, Johnson
Gutherson Hayne
D Walker, Harris, Edwards, Mansour, Rapana, MWZ, Nofoaluma
CWalker, Munster
10 trades and $118K left over.

By my reckoning this week only 13 on the field and likely to be only 17 next week
Main issues – what to do with Brailey. Are we going to see him again this year? Lose a trade by bringing in Smith two weeks early? Still 13/17 on field for the next 2 weeks. If I dump McCullough, it would be 13/16 for the 2 weeks.
Who to get in for Tommy T? – choice of Rapana (just no), Mansour (just brought him in), Nofo (bye this week), MWZ (bye this week), Hayne (been hot the last 2 weeks, but on SOO), Munster (SOO then bye). Could manipulate to get Marsters out for him, but that would involve having all 3 CTW/2RFs being in the 2RFs.
Looking to get C Smith in for Round 20.

    Coach_Cowboy · 05/07/2017 at 18:45

    Unlucky Westy. I'm sure you climb back in there before seasons end.
    With that current team I'd be looking to offload Marsters and Brailey this week (and possibly MWZ. You could nuff out one (Marsters > Saunders for example) and/or do a DPP trade by nuffing out Brailey and doing a DPP trade of Marsters > Tommy T via Harris/Munster?
    There's no rush getting Smith until round 20 though.
    The rest of your players are solid.
    How many trades do you have left and how much in the bank mate?

Team Crazy · 05/07/2017 at 18:22

Thanks Andrew great write up. Your column always provides with the sort of information I need prior to finalizing my trades.

    Coach_Cowboy · 05/07/2017 at 18:46

    Thanks Crazy, I appreciate the feedback mate and glad you find the article useful. If you're the Team Crazy currently in the top 10 overall then know that I am rooting for ya! You've had an impressive season mate.

Kane · 05/07/2017 at 23:03

I have Vaughan and JDB looking at getting J Turbo and Mannering would those trades be sideways? I went RTS to Turbo this week, or was thinking Harris to Turbo thoughts?

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/07/2017 at 10:00

    Hey Kane, Jurbo and Manners have been epic and I think they'll average slightly higher than Vaughan and JDB on the run home. Some would consider those trade sideways but I think you'll gain extra points from it between now and the end of season. I actually like RTS for the run home but Turbo is also a gun. Harris looks to be the better trade out option but I still reckon he's a CTW keeper. Who are your current trade-out options?

geoff · 05/07/2017 at 23:40

Team as follows with 181k ITB and 8 trades: ranked 1200 odd
McInnes (smith 2.0)
Surgess, Gal (JDB, Taulau)
LoLo, Manners, Brown (James, Elliot, Fui)
SJ (Widdop)
D walker (C walker)
Lafai, Chricton, Tofu, Mansour (Dedwards, Scott, Semi)
Munster (RTS)
Any advice on what to do with this?
Thinking RTS-Turbo and James-Gutho to get me 15 for this week whilst bringing me down to 17 next week. Or do you see something else that needs changing?
Love your work as per cowboy.

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/07/2017 at 10:07

    Hey Geoff. The only changes I'd make to that team for the run home are:
    McInnes > Smith 1.0
    Elliot/Fui/Saunders are the only ones I wouldn't have in your run home side in your forwards
    Halves are fine
    Scott is the only trade option in your CTWs but Lafai could be hot or miss so I guess he's a trade-out option too
    I like RTS for the run home but if you can, I'd get Turbo into your CTWs and keep Munster/RTS as your FBs
    James has been averaging poorly so the James > Gutho trade is OK. DCE is another good option for bye coverage and run home.
    You've got some trades up your sleeve so you could always nuff out someone to Saunders
    Thanks Geoff, glad you're enjoying the weekly read mate.

      geoff · 07/07/2017 at 17:29

      I think I'll cut my losses on Lafai, getting sub 50 against the Titans and knights is a viable cut option for any 'keeper'. Will hold Widdop for the good run of fixtures they have coming up so won't miss out too much on the favourable draw.

        Coach_Cowboy · 07/07/2017 at 18:34

        That's a fair call mate. Go with your gut and go hard!

          geoff · 07/07/2017 at 19:24

          just real quick cowboy, what do you think about munster to Moylan trade, I know you never trade a keeper but Moylan plays two extra crucial rounds and I think I have the trades to do it

geoff · 05/07/2017 at 23:46

Also wondering what your thoughts on Luke Keary are. I've always planned on getting Mitch Pearce in round 20 but might be worth looking at Keary instead for an extra round of scoring? Noticed he has 27% tho so the POD factor of Mitch Pearce would be gone

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/07/2017 at 10:08

    That's a toughie mate. I really like the Roosters' draw after round 21 and yeah, Keary would give you that extra number for this weekend. I don't think there's an issue keeping Keary but be prepared for a random low score, which I guess could be the same with Pearce.

Sharky Pete · 06/07/2017 at 02:00

Great article as always. What do you think of Griffin as a POD hooker? Potential AE nightmare?

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/07/2017 at 10:13

    Thanks Pete! Mate I'd steer clear. He can't seem to score well and he comes with a heap of uncertainty. He'll either be an AE nightmare or eventually nuff out.

Mel · 06/07/2017 at 14:06

Do you think i should keep munster or teddy for run home. Can only kewp 1 to get much needed numbers for this round?

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/07/2017 at 10:16

    Hey Mel. It would be perfect if you could have both but if you had to pick one I'd be going with Munster. He has a ridiculous recent average and a fairly favourable run home. Teddy should score well too but I'm predicting Munster will score better. Munster's DPP could come in handy too.

Westy · 09/07/2017 at 20:22

What are people's scores looking like this time round? Is 810 reasonable?

    geoff · 10/07/2017 at 01:05

    Not great I don't think, I got 858, ranked 1200 odd I'm expecting to cop a pretty sizeable drop in rankings just comparing my scores with others in my leagues.

      Westy · 10/07/2017 at 08:00

      Yep. Figured that might be the case.

    Rabbits16 · 11/07/2017 at 14:20

    did you only have 13-15 players? reasonable if thats the case… i had 17 players and got 1022points…. climbed 319 places with that score so obviusly scores werent that high this rd…. season rank 422 pretty happy with

Comments are closed.