The JR Academy – Week 5

Filed in DFS, Draftstars, Supercoach by on 29/06/2017 • views: 4464

JR-Academy-Web-Post-Image

 

The Academy – Week 5

1.     The Academy Community Ladder & Teams after Week 4 

This will be updated weekly, only showing the cumulative point score of the Top 20 place holders. All will be tracked so long term performance can be monitored.

Exciting News – This week we are starting out first “Jock Reynolds Graduates Contest” – a $2 buy-in competition that can be entered into here. I will also track performances in this competition also on a weekly basis, resulting in two weekly ladders; The Academy Ladder and The Graduates Ladder.

I look forward to welcoming those from South Australia and New South Wales, whose state legislation restricts entry into our free ‘Academy’ contest, into our proud Academy via the Graduates contest.

*Note that cells highlighted green indicate that the player won money during that round.

 

WEEK-4---Ladder-and-teams

ENTER THIS WEEK’S JOCK REYNOLDS DRAFTSTARS ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

ENTER OUR FIRST ‘JOCK REYNOLDS GRADUATES’ CONTEST HERE – $2 BUY-IN

Congratulations to this week’s winner – “Andrews1”.

The unique combination of Lambert, Lloyd and Houli were key contributors to this victory. Also choosing Kruezer over Nankervis gave Andrews1 an edge over two thirds of his opponents.

It is interesting to note that this team adopted very much an even-spread strategy, perhaps deliberately choosing to stay away from the high priced selections such as Dustin Martin, Gibbs, Murphy and Docherty, and opting for a more mid-priced spend. Given that there were very few genuine rookie options, it seems that in this game the mid-priced selection strategy was clearly the way to go.

Congratulations also to our current Top 20 Academy performers. This week I added in what I believe to a most important measure – Average Rank. This measures each player’s average finishing rank and is immune to relative high or low game scores (as we saw with last week’s Richmond v Carlton game).

Using Average Competition Rank as a measure, team “sveneris” is our clear leader. It would be wonderful to hear from this Academy member in relation to his current DFS strategic learnings in the comment below.

2.     Interrogation of the Player Score Projection Tool – “DOM”

Using www.fantasyinsider.com.au as a comparison, my forecasting tool was beaten by Fantasy Insider’s weekly modelling, bringing the weekly DOM v FI tally up to two wins each.

WEEK-4---Dom-v-FI-wrap-up

While still very close in general projections when compared to Fantasy Insider’s modelling, DOM’s large “Sum of Real Error” value continues to hint at some underlying error – time to get under the bonnet and find its source!

Good predictive tools, as with lineup strategies, are developed over time. I would like to direct you to some fascinating reading on the manner in which Fantasy Insider continue to tinker with their models – this will help guide you in your own understanding of the inherent fun that comes with making predictions and general DFS gamesmanship;


Improving Lineups by Reducing Player Projection Error

Sign up for a free trial of Fantasy Insider’s forecasting tools here;  www.fantasyinsider.com.au


3.     Analysis of the Performance of Team Peter_Higgo

Team “Peter_Higgo” ended with a weekly Academy rank of 137 – scoring 612 and falling over 100 points below the winner’s score. I went in with a stacked Richmond team as I was confident of a dominant team performance. Unfortunately, two of my Richmond selections fell very flat! Both Shai Bolton and Shane Edwards threw low scores relative to my forecasts and perceived value expectations. Such is the nature of DFS.

4.     Week 5 DOM Player Projection for Sunday’s Free Academy Game – COL v HAW

For numeric input detail relating to DOM (Draftstars Optimisation Machine)please visit The Week 1 JR Academy post.

PlayerPOSLong Run Av. (SD)2017 Av. (SD)Last 3 Av. (SD)Av. V Opp.ForecastCeilingPrice$/Pt.
T MitchellMid109.09 (29.82)128.38 (17.08)125.33 (13.58)106.14119.66153.9317400145.41
S PendleburyMid109.32 (19.34)113.25 (23.13)119 (9.9)113.5114.73144.4217100149.03
S SidebottomMid105.5 (21.94)109.46 (24.05)128 (4.58)116116.03144.6916600143.05
A TreloarMid107.77 (19.1)114.75 (19.81)118.33 (3.21)111.6114.29138.1716500144.35
T AdamsDef/Mid98.54 (29.31)115.23 (21.75)107.67 (25.17)93105.67148.8715300144.77
B GrundyMid91.09 (26.43)110.23 (20.58)122 (31.19)73102.98147.315050146.13
J HoweDef76.55 (24.27)91.23 (22.34)98.67 (17.79)7687.97124.4613700155.72
R HendersonDef/Mid77.19 (19.72)92 (17.27)99.33 (18.58)72.287.77119.2613300151.51
J SmithDef77.6 (27.62)79.58 (33.16)83 (67.88)5475.59148.513150173.95
L ShielsMid92.09 (22.68)90.38 (23.12)86.67 (7.57)90.88121.1312800140.83
I SmithMid/Fwd92.94 (22.22)91.69 (21.91)81.67 (10.6)9089.09120.1112600141.42
T PhillipsMid/Fwd75.83 (19.55)77 (16.31)87.33 (9.71)8581.96107.7912550153.11
L GreenwoodMid/Fwd86.44 (25.19)74.45 (18.06)86 (24.06)96.6685.25123.3912500146.61
L HodgeDef97.7 (23.96)90.64 (17.74)74 (15.56)105.3390.49122.9412500138.12
R BurtonDef/Fwd79.87 (19.97)86.25 (16.62)88.67 (28.1)6181.14117.812400152.8
S BurgoyneDef82.28 (18.52)81.08 (17.67)93.67 (18.45)9588.37119.3312400140.3
J CrispMid86.38 (18.36)82.77 (20.51)78 (21.63)102.586.5120.7812150140.45
B MaynardDef67.36 (21.64)72.77 (18.43)85.33 (9.87)61.573.7101.9911900161.46
B ReidDef67.32 (22.61)74.88 (22.34)85 (0)61.92100.1411800190.54
J ElliottFwd80.38 (22.68)78.5 (23.13)95 (0)5780.02118.9611800147.45
B McEvoyRuc75.97 (24.21)93 (19.89)82 (7.55)68.1997.4511700171.57
J RougheadFwd72.63 (26.05)75.47 (20.55)69 (28.15)9376.96119.3211650151.36
J De GoeyMid/Fwd70.49 (20.15)75.43 (18.2)90.33 (18.23)7980.12112.1811400142.27
J GunstonFwd86.21 (27.17)78.62 (28.49)72.67 (57.64)87.7580.67144.8811000136.34
B HartungMid65.84 (25.18)80.44 (13.29)86 (5.66)50.573.798.710800146.53
W Hoskin-ElliottMid/Fwd66.29 (27.22)81.58 (20.57)79.5 (12.02)65.7575.23109.1210800143.55
W LangfordMid71.31 (16.94)74.36 (21.75)85 (5.66)61.574.8799.9910800144.24
D WellsMid78.88 (26.02)76.5 (25.7)26 (0)7562.02105.9810750173.31
A FasoloFwd68.77 (23.52)67.25 (22.47)69 (1.41)71.569.4296.2910650153.39
G BirchallDef80.77 (19.47)66.75 (33.57)95 (0)78.2580.82125.9110650131.75
T DuryeaDef69.54 (21.42)70.83 (18.55)77.67 (15.89)71.2573.2104.8510450142.74
B WhitecrossFwd62.56 (19.23)61.2 (13.22)57.5 (9.19)6461.4285.019800159.55
L BreustFwd74.68 (20.47)67.08 (24.84)49.5 (26.16)79.7566.36106.869700146.17
C RioliFwd78.56 (20.41)59.57 (11.96)85.3369.5687.99300133.68
J FrawleyDef63.67 (22.87)62 (12.65)8163.3383.469300146.84
M ScharenbergDef58.57 (17.63)62.67 (8.39)60.5 (10.61)49.1669.919250188.14
T LangdonDef62 (29.7)62 (29.7)62 (29.7)47.6659.63110.129200154.27
P PuopoloFwd69.12 (18.47)65.75 (23.37)55.5 (19.09)71.2564.9499.479150140.87
L DunnDef65.71 (17.91)59.88 (13.78)61.33 (21.22)72.1664.4394.429050140.44
J AishMid65.4 (24.85)61.2 (26.32)83.5 (28.99)1768.83114.259000130.75
J SicilyFwd59.62 (18.48)60.2 (20.93)66.67 (19.43)5361.0894.428950146.52
D HoweDef/Mid65.83 (20.29)67.78 (17.65)52.67 (9.07)49.7976.448800176.71
T O'BrienFwd49.08 (21.91)69.43 (26.96)64.5 (40.31)50.49101.028800174.27
J GibsonDef78.03 (26.54)56.82 (15.78)70 (0)78.3369.81105.788700124.6
D MooreFwd53.95 (20.8)60.08 (22.74)69.67 (17.67)1557.32928650150.9
B HardwickFwd59.36 (17.86)61.4 (17.42)68 (13)51.1978.558600167.99
J RamsayDef59.56 (15.92)59.71 (14.75)36 (0)4750.5276.598550169.21
T BroomheadFwd57.68 (22.39)62.4 (19.04)66.33 (17.04)46.6659.9893.128300138.35
T VickeryFwd59.55 (21.96)54.67 (13.32)64 (0)65.8561.1891.178150133.2
J BlairFwd67.9 (18.54)51.83 (9.91)62.7560.3676.488000132.52
T GoldsackDef53.71 (17.31)52.36 (10.26)40 (0)44.547.8571.287750161.95
J CousinsMid 50 (16.97)50 (16.97)50 (16.97)40.569.347700190.12
B CrockerMid/Fwd55.67 (22.81)55.67 (22.81)55.67 (22.81)6558.0396.817450128.37
D WillsmoreMid51 (15.56)51 (15.56)62 (0)44.671.047200161.43
R SchoenmakersFwd53.53 (18.77)56 (1.41)55 (0)6357.174.267050123.45
C BrownMid38 (12.73)38 (12.73)38 (12.73)38.2459.876400167.36

5.     Comparison of COL v HAW predictive scores as delivered by DOM against an established forecasting model
Using forecasts as supplied by www.fantasyinsider.com.au, DOM performance data will be routinely checked against Fantasy Insider’s forecasting model and adjusted post-round as required.

PlayerDOM's ForecastF.I's ForecastDifference
Totals3286.843443.90-157.05
T Mitchell119.66126.40-6.74
S Pendlebury114.73123.50-8.77
S Sidebottom116.03119.70-3.67
A Treloar114.29124.10-9.80
T Adams105.67120.50-14.83
B Grundy102.98111.00-8.02
J Howe87.9789.70-1.73
R Henderson87.7793.50-5.73
L Shiels90.8890.200.67
I Smith89.0989.60-0.50
T Phillips81.9685.00-3.04
L Greenwood85.2584.400.84
L Hodge90.4990.200.28
R Burton81.1483.10-1.95
S Burgoyne88.3786.102.27
J Crisp86.591.90-5.40
B Maynard73.772.401.30
B Reid61.9274.00-12.08
B McEvoy68.1973.80-5.61
J Roughead76.9683.60-6.64
J De Goey80.1282.20-2.08
J Gunston80.6779.301.37
B Hartung73.775.20-1.50
W Hoskin-Elliott75.2379.60-4.36
W Langford74.8772.502.37
A Fasolo69.4268.301.12
G Birchall80.8283.00-2.18
T Duryea73.272.400.79
L Breust66.3669.60-3.23
T Langdon59.6376.00-16.37
P Puopolo64.9465.20-0.26
L Dunn64.4359.604.83
J Aish68.8375.40-6.57
J Sicily61.0860.800.28
D Howe49.7967.00-17.21
T O'Brien50.4955.50-5.01
D Moore57.3262.10-4.78
B Hardwick51.1961.60-10.41
T Broomhead59.9868.70-8.72
T Goldsack47.8553.00-5.15
B Crocker58.0352.205.83
R Schoenmakers57.152.105.00
C Brown38.2439.90-1.66

6.     Apply DOM forecasts and key selection strategies to finalise a weekly contest lineup for Sunday’s FREE Academy Game – COL v HAW.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Given that each week this post will be uploaded PRIOR to final team selections, potential updates will be re-posted following the release of squads. 

While I do anticipate a solid Collingwood performance, I am opposed to spending large on the likes of Mitchell, Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Treloar. Given each of these players are priced in excess of $16,000, selecting one or more of these players would force me into a speculative cheaper selection, such as Schoenmakers.

Aside from Grundy and Adams, team Peter_Higgo will be going in to battle this week, in both the FREE play and $2 Graduate competition, with very much a mid-priced strategy.

DOM-v-FI-lineups-WEEK5

 

I will leave the JR Academy Community to discuss the pros and cons of the above lineups and in particular the newly unpacked technique of team stacking.

Consider it, challenge it, and by all means BEAT TEAM PETER_HIGGO IN THIS SUNDAY’S ACADEMY CONTEST! 

ENTER THIS WEEK’S ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

ENTER OUR FIRST ‘JOCK REYNOLDS GRADUATES’ CONTEST HERE – $2 BUY-IN

I wish you well for Week 5 and look forward to continuing to share in my explorations over the coming weeks.

Kind regards,

Peter J Higginbotham

 

 Fantasy Insider have a two week free trial on the go at the minute, they also have a SuperCoach ‘who should I pick’ tool which may arouse you.. jump on over and give our great supporters a try!

DFS_post_cruncher-(1)

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Comments (38)

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  1. LEKD0G says:

    Managed to snag 46th last week Higgo, Nank over Kreuzer was the big killer

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      I have you in 33rd overall, Lek. Grand Total = 2815, Average Rank = 179.8. Doing well young man!

      • LEKD0G says:

        Better than I thought I was doing, you teach me something everyday Higgo

    • Stirlsy says:

      Yes Lekdog but who was looking over who's shoulder?
      You or Jock ???? Both same scores!!!

  2. SCDamien says:

    Finished 6th last week which is my best finish by a mile. Not sure how I'll back it up this week haha, finding it a bit hard to settle on a line-up I like.

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      Very nice work Damien. You are currently ranked 40th on cumulative points(2792) with an average contest rank of 223rd … with a bullet!

  3. sveneris says:

    Higgo – thanks for the shout out….DFS strategic learnings hey….well to be honest its a movable feast, a smorgasbord if you like… for entree some Contrarian Chicken skewers, (skewed) , then I had for mains, Mid priced Meatloaf with a side order of poached Guns and Rookies, and for dessert "stacked Pancakes. Nothing is more important though than Gut Feel and after feasting on good rankings I am satiated and fortunately won some coin to purchase a refreshing breverage.
    Thanks Higgo for all your guidance in the Academy – I think I am ready to Graduate and have entered the $2 game – looks like a lot of fun!
    Regards
    Sven from Sweden
    (sveneris)

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      Dear Sven,

      Thank you very much for neatly unpacking your picnic basket of strategic treats and allowing for us to share in it's varied delights.

      By "gut feel" are you referring to your tendency to consider match-ups or game specific human elements? I feel this forms a key part of the selection criteria, as was the case with the Kreuzer over Nankervis selection last week.

      Have you any "gut feel" selections for the COL v HAW game good Sir?

      Kind regards,
      Peter J Higginbotham

  4. Stirlsy says:

    It looked hard last week and that's the way it turned out, i ended up way over thinking it making 5 teams up before settling on one that was never in the hunt, sitting in the middle of pack or worse for 3 qtrs and coming home fairly in the last to finish 114th….
    Sailing along in the overall, up to 3rd.. Even Higgo who said on the podcast he had an avg game but he climbed in the overall as well up to 12th now and learning the new format well.
    Welcome to the top 10 Hedski on the back of a great 8th finish last week.
    A new week brings us a new game the $2 learnerbes game open to us learners of DRAFTSTARS who have played under 20 paid games before…I reserved my spot by throwing 9 players in but haven't had a Study yet but this one is only a 55 player cap so get in Quick guys & gals.
    And the free game is on as always and with my Pies playing im looking fwd to a return to the top 35 and hopefully a top 5 finish in the $2 game.
    All the best Community on this weeks 2 games.

    • hedski says:

      Cheers Stirlsy, gave you a shout out but comment got deleted or I stuffed it up, either way good fun to be had, I'm in the graduates league this week too lookin forward to taking you on, hopefully go OK in the academy game as well and climb a bit higher.

  5. sveneris says:

    Higgo, gut feel….T Cloke impact…. in Sweden your Olaf's your Erik's and your Sven's can struggle due to a lack of light in the long winter…. How long is the Collingwood Winter? One of their own even though he now wears the colours of the Icelandic flag is struck down…how do his old mates react?
    Gut feel…they recognise they will tread this (AFL) stage for only a short while and so must make the most of their chances. Hawks v Crows will prove to be a false dawn…sorry Dawn.
    Load up on your, WHE,s your, Grundy's, your Aish's , your Crisps, your Broomheads…
    Sven

  6. hedski says:

    That should be (plus the turbos)

  7. Defying_Madness says:

    Didn't think I would be ranked 4th on the ladder. Was busy last weekend and ended up on forgetting to take Zac Fisher out of my team which cost me in the end.
    Here is my team for the week:

    Burton
    WHE
    Hartung
    De Goey
    Hodge
    Isaac Smith
    Aish
    Howe
    McEvoy

    Let me know your thoughts about my selections, pretty risky but hoping it pays off this week. Also considering getting rid of Burton for Obrien and then using the cash to upgrade a midfielder.
    Good luck community

  8. hedski says:

    Gday Higgo, any reason my comment got deleted, no swearing or anything and was trying to explain my strategy? Cheers

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      Good afternoon Hedski,
      At time the "intense notification" spam filter seems to be a little over-zealous. I can assure you that nothing sinister is at play here my friend. I have noticed at times my posts don't get pushed either.
      Would love to hear your strategic thoughts!
      Regards,
      Peter

  9. hedski says:

    My 2¢ Patch is Treloar is a must cos doesn't matter if he butchers it as long as he racks them up.

  10. JBucks says:

    Top ranked non-money earner 🙁
    That's all about to change this week fellas- JBuck$$$

    • JBucks says:

      Sorry didn't see bumpandrun in 13th who hasn't cashed either. Hope we can both be in the money this week !

  11. jimmy_raiders says:

    Do we have a link to the full ladder? Interested as to where I am, last week was in 61st position. Username Jrussell2

  12. Stirlsy says:

    Doing the unthinkable playing 2 different types of teams.
    TEAM 1 The Academy .. It's more a mid priced team with the top player Adams and 6 others over 10k mark and just the 2 under 10k…
    TEAM 2 The Graduates … This one is more a Guns and Rookie approach and ya just gotta hope the tags don't come or the player can over come the tag in what's shaping as an interesting game.

    • hedski says:

      At this stage Stirlsy I have the same team in each but that may change when completed squads are named tonight.

  13. P_J_Higgo says:

    Teams updated in post at 2.30pm Friday – this was based on the omission of James Aish.

  14. hedski says:

    OK take 2.
    Not much to my strategy Higgo, minimal research and like Sven plenty of gut feel, still getting my head around the scoring as haven't played much fantasy just the play at home CK.
    Basically I choose a cheap ruck first off, Kreuzer the exception last week, Frost the week before was good and could be higher up the rankings but having Watts and Jones benched the last qtr was a killer but I'm sure I wasn't the only one there.
    Next I go for a cheapish def/mid/fwd then try to get a top 4 def + fwd and 3 top 6 or so mids, then I fiddle til I'm happy.
    For example if big Cox named Sunday I'll smash him in otherwise I'd go Big Boy even though Grundy will probably get the job done, just gives a bit more coin for top mids.
    Here is my tentative lineup for Sunday.
    Cox
    Hardwick
    O'Brian
    Treloar
    Hodge
    Greenwood
    De Goey
    J. Howe
    Scharenberg

    If I was to drop Cox for Big Boy I'd have to chop Treloar for a Phillips type.
    Hope that makes some kind of sense I've been up since 3 this morning.
    Stoked to make the top 10 in league and pocket $10 last week, I'm hoping to keep climbing the rungs, having a crack at the Graduates league too.

  15. Stirlsy says:

    Cox was named in team on ground so was always in…. Cheap as chips but not a fantasy scorer his good for 50 only IMO.
    Iv got him in Grads as its more G&R team with this team i sort of couple up 2 players together and score them that way, up against say 2 mid prices.
    Example— Cox and Titch = 180pts v Phillips and De Goey combo i score at 170
    Just a different way of doing things.

    • Stirlsy says:

      Team 1 Acads 7 above 10k 2 under = midpriced team
      Team 2 Grads 5 above 10k 4 under = Guns & rookies type of team.

      Be interesting to see what team wins out of these 2 and more of a learning thing for me and that's why im playing 2 totally different types of teams in this game to learn.

      • hedski says:

        I like your thinking Stirlsy, will probably do similar al la ruck choices, I guess I'm hoping Cox will slot a coupla goals to boost his score, might even jump in a different paid game and run 3 teams 1 cox 2 big boy 3 Grundy, see how it goes.

        • Stirlsy says:

          Staying away from Grundy, Hedski Big boy will go ok and Cox will eat into Grudy a touch.

  16. Stirlsy says:

    And at half time just 2pts separates my mid priced team v guns and rookies…..The Guns are up.

    • hedski says:

      You me and defying looking the goods so far, noticed you took big cox.

    • Stirlsy says:

      3QT and the guns stretch the lead out to 25pts but both teams a player down for all of last qtr

  17. Stirlsy says:

    Start last qtr 2nd in Grads 70th something in acads

  18. eckie79 says:

    Just by having a quick look it seems like the DOM stepped up it's game this week against the Fantasy Insiders predictor. Will be interesting to see the analysis from this week.