CowboyRound17

We’ll now need to be conscious of how our run home side will look like.

Most of us already have a high percentage of Keepers in our side but we should have an idea of which players we want to finalise our run home team. In other words, you’ll want to know how your final trades will be used. I’d recommend jotting your final team down and when you’ll be trading certain players in and out of your side.

I have eight trades remaining. I’ll be using six of these for downgrades/upgrades with two leftover in case injuries strike. I plan on getting two Keepers, a POD and three Nuffies to finish off my final 25.

I jumped up to 144th after cranking out a respectable 1137. I decided to throw the big C on Widdop and was rewarded nicely. It seems my realistic goal is to finish inside the top 100 but we have to expect a wide range of scores for rounds 18 and 19. For now, let’s enjoy the feeling of being able to field our strongest 17 this week.

The Controversial

Tom Trbojevic ($450.4k CTW/FB) is one player we definitely want in our run home side. Those of us that don’t own him need to decide whether it’s worth getting him this week. So what’s holding us back?

The Verdict: I don’t think Tommy Turbo could’ve provided us with a bigger headache this week. Manly are playing at home to the defensively weak Warriors and I’m predicting he’ll crack the 90 point barrier. This might be a good incentive to trade him in but he comes with a Break Even of 143 and hasn’t returned to 100% fitness. The last thing we need during the final stages of the season is an injury to a Gun, especially if you’ve run out of trades.

We could choose to go with the ‘balls to the wall’ method of ignoring a potential injury. This would be a great boost to our round 18 side and we’ll gain an invaluable CTW/FB DPP Gun for the run home. There’s nothing wrong with this method if you have back-up in case the worst case scenario strikes.

I’d recommend giving him a miss this week and reconsidering him for round 18. Most of us already have a strong seventeen for this round and we’ll likely pick him up for a cheaper price next week. Either way, make sure he’s part of your starting side for the final big bye round if he isn’t selected for Origin.

Cameron Smith ($488k HOK) will be a very popular choice this week. Many hookers are no longer a viable SuperCoach option and Smith is a ‘must have’ for the run home.

The Verdict: It’s not a question of if, but a question of when. Cameron Smith is the only hooker you’ll need in your SuperCoach team for the run home. Others could be considered but you’ll find that the Smith/Nuff hooker combo will be the most popular. So why is he being considered this week when he clearly won’t play round 18? Simplez. Everyone else is either injured or underperforming. McInnes has been an excellent choice but his 34 point performance last week has started to scare his owners. Let’s not forget that McInnes isn’t available for round 18 either so there isn’t a positive in holding him over Smith.

Don’t be too concerned about fielding a hooker for round 18. If you’re lucky enough to have 17 players for the final big bye round you’ll receive the AE for your absent hooker anyway. In other words, you’ll be getting Smith into your side at some point so it might as well be now.

Jack De Belin ($392.8k FRF/2RF) will return from suspension this week but many coaches are questioning whether he’s a keeper for the run home. Well, is he?

The Verdict:  At this stage I’m not really concerned whether he’s a keeper or not. De Belin isn’t a trade option this week, especially with his Break Even of 59. Coaches who are looking to trade in a higher averaging player shouldn’t be using DeBelin, unless of course you have the luxury of being overloaded with Forward Guns.

Felise Kaufusi ($487.6k FRF) now has an impressive five round average of 81.2 PPG and an even better average over the last three weeks (92.7 PPG). Should we be considering him as a FRF Keeper?

The Verdict: We can approach the Kaufusi situation in two ways. You’ll find that many veteran SuperCoaches will be trading him out after round 18. This is simply because he’s an edge second-rower that relies on attacking stats to produce a consistent output. There’s nothing worse than one of your run home forwards producing a score of 55 or less.

We can also look at Kaufusi in a more positive light. The Storm have a reasonably favourable run home so there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to produce attacking stats on a regular basis. After all, Melbourne are now the Premiership favourites and they’ll score plenty of points through the run home. Hold Kaufusi for round 18 and go with your gut when Melbourne have their final bye in round 19.

In Short

Curtis Scott ($143.6k CTW) has played two games and is ripe for the picking. He has an incredible break even of -84 and is expected to take the field in round 18. This is a similar situation to the Brandon Smith scenario. He may not make enough coin to justify two trades but he’ll become a Nuffie at worst case scenario. It’ll be happy days for Scott owners if he manages to take the field on more than one occasion.

Matthew Eisenhuth ($122.6k 2RF) is in a slightly better situation than Scott due to the increased likelihood of retaining his position. He’ll start making a profit after this weekend’s game and can be offloaded for a decent profit after round 19. Be wary that he won’t add to your round 18 numbers.

Paul Vaughan ($400.1k FRF/2RF) has injured his calf and is expected to return in round 19 (give or take). I’ve noticed a fair number of coaches are trading him out but it simply isn’t worth it. You should have some decent back-up by now so it’s easy to reassess his situation after the Dragons’ bye week in round 18.

Top 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and named this week)

Matthew Eisenhuth ($122.6k 2RF): -69

Jarryd Hayne ($292.8k FE/FB): -35

Esan Marsters ($214.7k 2RF): -34

Kurt Capewell ($319.1k 2RF/CTW): -27

Nathaniel Roache ($150.1k HOK/FB): -22

Bottom 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and named this week)

Tom Trbojevic ($450.4k FB/CTW): 143

Jake Friend ($430.9k HOK): 138

Isaah Yeo ($462.5k CTW/2RF): 132

Euan Aitken ($342.6k CTW): 122

Trent Merrin ($436.6k 2RF/FRF): 116

Team List Tuesday

Cameron King is named as the Eels’ hooker

James Graham is out injured

Euan Aitken has returned to the centres

Jack De Belin returns from suspension

Slater/Cronk/Smith/Harris all named for Melbourne

Te Maire Martin has been named as Thurston’s replacement

James Tedesco returns from injury

Malakai Watene-Zelezniak has been dropped to the reserves

Sam Burgess has returned from injury

Tyrell Fuimaono is named in the second row

Predictions

Nathan Ross will have a 3 round average of 80 PPG after round 18

Tim Lafai will crack 70 points against the Titans this weekend

Josh Mansour to crack 80 points against the Bunnies this weekend

 

That’s it for this week,  feel free to leave your comments below, or

Twitter : @CKings_Cowboy

 


21 Comments

geoff · 28/06/2017 at 17:07

I haven't had C smith all year and hve always considered him for the run home but I am concerned with his injury cloud

    Coach_Cowboy · 28/06/2017 at 17:25

    Same Geoff. I haven't had Smith all year but I think I may grab him after round 19. He'll be fit and firing for the run home

      geoff · 28/06/2017 at 17:34

      Fair enough, I'm on the fence as I think he may get rested for a game or 2 if storm or sitting comfortably but who knows. What are your thoughts on getting Ross for a few weeks, I have 10 trades and hve figured out my plans that leaves me with 19 guns and 2 trades for finals/injuries and gets me Ross for MWZ this week and then trading Ross for a gun in rd 20 probably Mitch Pearce. Need numbers for 18 and I think I can make t work with trades. It's a bold move but at 1186 ranking I want to make some inroads into the top 1k

        geoff · 28/06/2017 at 17:39

        Final team looking something like this with 2 trades and 160-200k ITB
        McInnes (smith2.0)
        Surgess, JDB (Brown, nuff)
        Gal, LoLo, Manners (Fifi/jurbo, Chricton, nuff)
        Pearce (Widdop)
        SJ (nuff)
        Lafai, Turbo, Tofu, d walker (dedwards, semi, Scott)
        Moylan (munster)

          Coach_Cowboy · 28/06/2017 at 18:37

          BEAST team Geoff! That's a top 1k team for sure. You've got some good balance in the CTWs too. You'll be able to rotate a few players during their favourable draws.

        Coach_Cowboy · 28/06/2017 at 18:36

        Yeah that's a fair call mate (RE Smith). Origin 3 will be a good indication of what to do with Smith.
        Ross seems to be a good POD now he's playing at fullback. I'm always a little nervous picking a player after one epic game but he has every chance to fire again this weekend. I'd like to see how he goes against a solid team though.
        I think you're in a really good spot with Guns/plans/trades mate. Balls to the wall with Ross mate. It's a great chance to get ahead in round 18.

          geoff · 28/06/2017 at 21:21

          Yeah think I'll go him and cross my fingers! Do you think the trigger needs to be pulled on this tualau bloke if we want a rd 18 playing nuff or wait a week and see what pops up next week? Would be for Graham.

            Coach_Cowboy · 29/06/2017 at 07:13

            I'd be waiting a week for sure. Not needed this week mate. If you need a downgrade this week I'd look elsewhere, even a nuff.

              geoff · 03/07/2017 at 03:01

              Thankfully didn't go Ross, went the safe option and picked up a 'gun' in Mansour, should've waited to trade out mwz upon teddy news. 1140 expecting to slide down the rankings a tad. How'd you travel cowboy?

                geoff · 03/07/2017 at 03:02

                Also interested in your opinion of picking jurbo/Fifi post origin rather than Marty Taupau and sacrificing a number for rd 18 (14 playing rd 18 if I wait to get most likely jurbo) or pick up Marty and play 15

                  Coach_Cowboy · 03/07/2017 at 22:49

                  The Sauce was a bit average wasn't he. Luckily that final try gave us something. I got 1138 mate and dropped 25 spots to 169th. I like that option Geoff. I've actually passed on Taupau myself. He could easily get you 55 to 60 point this week but Jurbo/Fifi are much better quality.

Jason · 28/06/2017 at 17:28

Great article. You not sold on picking up Friend next week. Should be priced around 400k and plays 18 and 19 when Smith is absent?

    Coach_Cowboy · 28/06/2017 at 17:59

    Cheers Jason. I don't have the trades for Friend but he isn't a bad option for the next couple of weeks. He wouldn't be in my run home side though.
    Are you taking the punt mate?

    Michael · 30/06/2017 at 17:56

    If you're only looking at 18 and getting rid of, sounds like a great idea. He generally goes a lot better when Pierce is out

      Coach_Cowboy · 02/07/2017 at 10:27

      He was a tackling machine on the weekend. 60+

Kane · 28/06/2017 at 17:32

Out of J Turbo
T Turbo
Milf
Mannering
Moylan
Which 3 would you get for the run home?

    Coach_Cowboy · 28/06/2017 at 17:59

    All 4 but if 1 had to miss out it would be Moylan

      Westy · 28/06/2017 at 21:47

      Isn’t Milf out for a while?

        Coach_Cowboy · 29/06/2017 at 07:12

        Yeah but the Broncs run home is very good. He'll be a good pick up upon return

Coach_Cowboy · 28/06/2017 at 17:57

Sorry fellas, missed the latemail on Smith, JDB and Vaughan before submitting the article

Coach_Cowboy · 28/06/2017 at 18:42

*Smith to have a test on his sternum injury tomorrow to prove his fitness.
*Vaughan expected to return Round 21 (calf injury)

Comments are closed.