NRL Supercoach Round 17 – Trade Conscious
Weβll now need to be conscious of how our run home side will look like.
Most of us already have a high percentage of Keepers in our side but we should have an idea of which players we want to finalise our run home team. In other words, youβll want to know how your final trades will be used. Iβd recommend jotting your final team down and when youβll be trading certain players in and out of your side.
I have eight trades remaining. Iβll be using six of these for downgrades/upgrades with two leftover in case injuries strike. I plan on getting two Keepers, a POD and three Nuffies to finish off my final 25.
I jumped up to 144th after cranking out a respectable 1137. I decided to throw the big C on Widdop and was rewarded nicely. It seems my realistic goal is to finish inside the top 100 but we have to expect a wide range of scores for rounds 18 and 19. For now, letβs enjoy the feeling of being able to field our strongest 17 this week.
The Controversial
Tom Trbojevic ($450.4k CTW/FB) is one player we definitely want in our run home side. Those of us that donβt own him need to decide whether itβs worth getting him this week. So whatβs holding us back?
The Verdict: I donβt think Tommy Turbo couldβve provided us with a bigger headache this week. Manly are playing at home to the defensively weak Warriors and Iβm predicting heβll crack the 90 point barrier. This might be a good incentive to trade him in but he comes with a Break Even of 143 and hasnβt returned to 100% fitness. The last thing we need during the final stages of the season is an injury to a Gun, especially if youβve run out of trades.
We could choose to go with the βballs to the wallβ method of ignoring a potential injury. This would be a great boost to our round 18 side and weβll gain an invaluable CTW/FB DPP Gun for the run home. Thereβs nothing wrong with this method if you have back-up in case the worst case scenario strikes.
Iβd recommend giving him a miss this week and reconsidering him for round 18. Most of us already have a strong seventeen for this round and weβll likely pick him up for a cheaper price next week. Either way, make sure heβs part of your starting side for the final big bye round if he isnβt selected for Origin.
Cameron Smith ($488k HOK) will be a very popular choice this week. Many hookers are no longer a viable SuperCoach option and Smith is a βmust haveβ for the run home.
The Verdict: Itβs not a question of if, but a question of when. Cameron Smith is the only hooker youβll need in your SuperCoach team for the run home. Others could be considered but youβll find that the Smith/Nuff hooker combo will be the most popular. So why is he being considered this week when he clearly wonβt play round 18? Simplez. Everyone else is either injured or underperforming. McInnes has been an excellent choice but his 34 point performance last week has started to scare his owners. Letβs not forget that McInnes isnβt available for round 18 either so there isnβt a positive in holding him over Smith.
Donβt be too concerned about fielding a hooker for round 18. If youβre lucky enough to have 17 players for the final big bye round youβll receive the AE for your absent hooker anyway. In other words, youβll be getting Smith into your side at some point so it might as well be now.
Jack De Belin ($392.8k FRF/2RF) will return from suspension this week but many coaches are questioning whether heβs a keeper for the run home. Well, is he?
The Verdict: Β At this stage Iβm not really concerned whether heβs a keeper or not. De Belin isnβt a trade option this week, especially with his Break Even of 59. Coaches who are looking to trade in a higher averaging player shouldnβt be using DeBelin, unless of course you have the luxury of being overloaded with Forward Guns.
Felise Kaufusi ($487.6k FRF) now has an impressive five round average of 81.2 PPG and an even better average over the last three weeks (92.7 PPG). Should we be considering him as a FRF Keeper?
The Verdict: We can approach the Kaufusi situation in two ways. Youβll find that many veteran SuperCoaches will be trading him out after round 18. This is simply because heβs an edge second-rower that relies on attacking stats to produce a consistent output. Thereβs nothing worse than one of your run home forwards producing a score of 55 or less.
We can also look at Kaufusi in a more positive light. The Storm have a reasonably favourable run home so thereβs no reason to believe he wonβt continue to produce attacking stats on a regular basis. After all, Melbourne are now the Premiership favourites and theyβll score plenty of points through the run home. Hold Kaufusi for round 18 and go with your gut when Melbourne have their final bye in round 19.
In Short
Curtis Scott ($143.6k CTW) has played two games and is ripe for the picking. He has an incredible break even of -84 and is expected to take the field in round 18. This is a similar situation to the Brandon Smith scenario. He may not make enough coin to justify two trades but heβll become a Nuffie at worst case scenario. Itβll be happy days for Scott owners if he manages to take the field on more than one occasion.
Matthew Eisenhuth ($122.6k 2RF) is in a slightly better situation than Scott due to the increased likelihood of retaining his position. Heβll start making a profit after this weekendβs game and can be offloaded for a decent profit after round 19. Be wary that he wonβt add to your round 18 numbers.
Paul Vaughan ($400.1k FRF/2RF) has injured his calf and is expected to return in round 19 (give or take). Iβve noticed a fair number of coaches are trading him out but it simply isnβt worth it. You should have some decent back-up by now so itβs easy to reassess his situation after the Dragonsβ bye week in round 18.
Top 5 Break Evens
(Must have played 2 games and named this week)
Matthew Eisenhuth ($122.6k 2RF): -69
Jarryd Hayne ($292.8k FE/FB): -35
Esan Marsters ($214.7k 2RF): -34
Kurt Capewell ($319.1k 2RF/CTW): -27
Nathaniel Roache ($150.1k HOK/FB): -22
Bottom 5 Break Evens
(Must have played 2 games and named this week)
Tom Trbojevic ($450.4k FB/CTW): 143
Jake Friend ($430.9k HOK): 138
Isaah Yeo ($462.5k CTW/2RF): 132
Euan Aitken ($342.6k CTW): 122
Trent Merrin ($436.6k 2RF/FRF): 116
Team List Tuesday
Cameron King is named as the Eelsβ hooker
James Graham is out injured
Euan Aitken has returned to the centres
Jack De Belin returns from suspension
Slater/Cronk/Smith/Harris all named for Melbourne
Te Maire Martin has been named as Thurstonβs replacement
James Tedesco returns from injury
Malakai Watene-Zelezniak has been dropped to the reserves
Sam Burgess has returned from injury
Tyrell Fuimaono is named in the second row
Predictions
Nathan Ross will have a 3 round average of 80 PPG after round 18
Tim Lafai will crack 70 points against the Titans this weekend
Josh Mansour to crack 80 points against the Bunnies this weekend
Β
Thatβs it for this week, Β feel free to leave your comments below, or
Twitter :Β @CKings_Cowboy
I haven't had C smith all year and hve always considered him for the run home but I am concerned with his injury cloud
Same Geoff. I haven't had Smith all year but I think I may grab him after round 19. He'll be fit and firing for the run home
Fair enough, I'm on the fence as I think he may get rested for a game or 2 if storm or sitting comfortably but who knows. What are your thoughts on getting Ross for a few weeks, I have 10 trades and hve figured out my plans that leaves me with 19 guns and 2 trades for finals/injuries and gets me Ross for MWZ this week and then trading Ross for a gun in rd 20 probably Mitch Pearce. Need numbers for 18 and I think I can make t work with trades. It's a bold move but at 1186 ranking I want to make some inroads into the top 1k
Final team looking something like this with 2 trades and 160-200k ITB
McInnes (smith2.0)
Surgess, JDB (Brown, nuff)
Gal, LoLo, Manners (Fifi/jurbo, Chricton, nuff)
Pearce (Widdop)
SJ (nuff)
Lafai, Turbo, Tofu, d walker (dedwards, semi, Scott)
Moylan (munster)
BEAST team Geoff! That's a top 1k team for sure. You've got some good balance in the CTWs too. You'll be able to rotate a few players during their favourable draws.
Yeah that's a fair call mate (RE Smith). Origin 3 will be a good indication of what to do with Smith.
Ross seems to be a good POD now he's playing at fullback. I'm always a little nervous picking a player after one epic game but he has every chance to fire again this weekend. I'd like to see how he goes against a solid team though.
I think you're in a really good spot with Guns/plans/trades mate. Balls to the wall with Ross mate. It's a great chance to get ahead in round 18.
Yeah think I'll go him and cross my fingers! Do you think the trigger needs to be pulled on this tualau bloke if we want a rd 18 playing nuff or wait a week and see what pops up next week? Would be for Graham.
I'd be waiting a week for sure. Not needed this week mate. If you need a downgrade this week I'd look elsewhere, even a nuff.
Thankfully didn't go Ross, went the safe option and picked up a 'gun' in Mansour, should've waited to trade out mwz upon teddy news. 1140 expecting to slide down the rankings a tad. How'd you travel cowboy?
Also interested in your opinion of picking jurbo/Fifi post origin rather than Marty Taupau and sacrificing a number for rd 18 (14 playing rd 18 if I wait to get most likely jurbo) or pick up Marty and play 15
The Sauce was a bit average wasn't he. Luckily that final try gave us something. I got 1138 mate and dropped 25 spots to 169th. I like that option Geoff. I've actually passed on Taupau myself. He could easily get you 55 to 60 point this week but Jurbo/Fifi are much better quality.
Great article. You not sold on picking up Friend next week. Should be priced around 400k and plays 18 and 19 when Smith is absent?
Cheers Jason. I don't have the trades for Friend but he isn't a bad option for the next couple of weeks. He wouldn't be in my run home side though.
Are you taking the punt mate?
If you're only looking at 18 and getting rid of, sounds like a great idea. He generally goes a lot better when Pierce is out
He was a tackling machine on the weekend. 60+
Out of J Turbo
T Turbo
Milf
Mannering
Moylan
Which 3 would you get for the run home?
All 4 but if 1 had to miss out it would be Moylan
Isn’t Milf out for a while?
Yeah but the Broncs run home is very good. He'll be a good pick up upon return
Sorry fellas, missed the latemail on Smith, JDB and Vaughan before submitting the article
*Smith to have a test on his sternum injury tomorrow to prove his fitness.
*Vaughan expected to return Round 21 (calf injury)