CowboyRound16

We can now breathe easy knowing three teams are done with their byes.

The Sea Eagles, Knights and Panthers are the first teams to complete their bye rounds. We need to start thinking about which players from these teams we want for our run home. The obvious choices to consider are Taupau, Merrin, Mansour, Moylan and Dylan Walker as none of these players will miss round 18 through Origin duties.

I had a reasonable week with a score of 1167 and jumped 50 spots to 240th overall. My plan this week is to grab two round 18 players; one Nuffie and one Keeper. It’s a little scary when the number of trades remaining reaches single digits but there shouldn’t be a problem if we have some good quality back-up.

Let’s get into the trade candidates.

The Controversial

Josh Mansour ($422k CTW) is back from long-term injury and already seems like a CTW Keeper. A lot of us will be trading him in; but is he a ‘must-have’ this week?

The Verdict: The Sauce will be the ultimate condiment to our SuperCoach sandwich and can’t be ignored with the Panthers’ coverage and run home. I’ve noticed a high percentage of coaches will be trading him in this week but do we need to focus our round 16 trades around him? Don’t feel that he’s a must have this week; he has a break even of 62 so his price won’t change significantly.

The Panthers are playing the Cowboys in Townsville and he’s projected to score 47 points. His highest score against the boys up north is 67 so there’s no harm in waiting until they play the weaker Bunnies in round 17. He’ll be a great addition to your side but he can wait until next week if need be.

Brandon Smith ($122.6k HOK) should play his third (and possibly final) game in round 18. His Break Even is an impressive -86; but is this a relevant factor?

The Verdict: The short answer is no. Smith is an attractive candidate for his round 18 availability, not his break even. He may have been a more suitable trade-in last round but there’s absolutely nothing wrong with using him as a downgrade option this week. You’ll find that a lot of coaches will be getting Mansour or Moylan and they’ll need the extra cash to trade them in. This is why Brailey to Smith will be a popular trade for round 16.  

This is a ‘killing two birds with one stone’ scenario. Not only will you have an extra player for round 18 but you’ll also have one of your Nuffies sorted if you’re looking at running with one hooker for the run home. Don’t rule out an upgrade at a later time, though. If Cameron Smith is given a one game rest, Brandon should make enough coin to become a viable upgrade option. He’s a BUY!

Johnathan Thurston ($446.2k HFB) will be one of the halves you’ll want in your run home side. His stats speak for themselves and there’s no question that most competitive coaches will have him in their sides. Should we be considering him for round 16?

The Verdict: Let me start by saying that I’m the biggest sceptic when it comes to trading in a player that isn’t at 100% fitness. Clearly his round 14 performance should rid me of any worries but the additional news of a knee concern along with his Origin duties have just added fuel to the fire.

The Cowboys’ next three rounds are against the Panthers (H), Raiders (A) followed by a bye week. I’m not too concerned with his scoring potential over this period. It wouldn’t bother me to pay an additional 20k or so when the Cowboys play the Bunnies in round 19. At least I’ll know the state of his fitness and I can trade him in without too many concerns. Don’t rush trading him in but there’s never a bad time to add JT to your side.

Semi Radradra ($295.1k CTW) has been inconsistent at best and it seems more and more unlikely he’ll reach ‘Fully Radradra’ in the coming weeks. Is there any point in holding him?

The Verdict: I can’t remember the last time Semi gave me a…..well, never mind. His Break Even is a whopping 88 and he won’t be playing rounds 16 or 19. There are only two reasons we’d want to hold Semi for the time being; his round 18 availability and the Eels’ favourable run home draw. It seems like such a waste trading a player of Semi’s calibre for under $300k but it’s hard to justify his presence in our team at this stage. He’s a justified SELL but those who stay loyal could be rewarded.

In Short

Jayden Brailey ($270.5k HOK) is the perfect sell if your numbers for rounds 16 and 19 are looking good. His Break Even is 20 points above his average and he won’t play the final big bye round. Consider ‘nuffing him out’ to Brandon Smith (or a different nuffie) and be wary that he may lose value if he’s your future Cameron Smith.

Cody Walker ($303.2k FE/FB) is another attractive sell but it’s much harder to simply let him go. He won’t be playing this weekend but will take the field in rounds 18 and 19. His Break Even is 46 so he won’t be losing significant value prior to the final big bye round. The negatives are obvious. He may have rewarded us with a 74 point performance last week but keep in mind he would’ve scored closer to 40 if it wasn’t for the Linebreak/Try. The Bunnies have a horror run home so I’d recommend trading him out after round 19.  

Martin Taupau ($474.3k FRF/2RF) has been an absolute beast SC scorer and should be considered as one of your run home forwards. He’s been averaging an epic 71.8 PPG and is likely to jump in value with a Break Even on 50. Manly have had their two bye rounds so we have the added comfort of knowing he’ll play each week for the remainder of the season. You can’t really go wrong with the likes of KAPOW!

Gareth Widdop ($396.5k FE/HFB) is making another appearance in my article and for very good reason. Honestly; how frustrating is this bloke? He has a Break Even of 131 yet he’s playing against the Knights and Titans in his next two matches. There’s absolutely no point trading him out when he’s playing two struggling sides so we may as well stay firm for the time being. I think we should assess his suitability after round 17.

Top 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and named this week)

Kurt Capewell ($262.5k 2RF/CTW): -80 (Bench)

Connor Watson ($199.2k FE/FB): -46 (Bench)

Dylan Edwards ($247.9k CTW/FB): -21

Esan Marsters ($172.5k 2RF): -12

Lachlan Fitzgibbon ($199.5k 2RF): -9

Bottom 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and named this week)

Gareth Widdop ($396.5k HB/FE): 131

Jake Trbojevic ($508.5k FRF/2RF): 127

Daniel Tupou ($344.7k CTW): 126

Tom Trbojevic ($489.9k CTW/FB): 126

Tim Lafai ($480.3k CTW): 124

Team List Tuesday

State of Origin players return

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad named to start in place of Solomone Kata

Esan Marsters named at centre

Matthew Eisenhuth retains his bench spot

Pat Politoni named on the bench

Marshall/Nikorima named as the Broncos halves (Hunt named on the bench)

Euan Aitken named on the extended bench

Kurt Capewell named on the bench

Predictions

Gareth Widdop to crack the 80 point barrier

Shaun Johnson to crack the 90 point barrier

Tommy Turbo to drop at least $30k after this weekend

That’s it for this week,  feel free to leave your comments below, or

Twitter : @CKings_Cowboy

18 Comments

Westy · 21/06/2017 at 23:06

Hey Coach,
This is a silly game. Got my highest score for the year in Round 15 (go figure), jumped almost 2500 to 2100.
453K in the bank. 13 trades.
And now no idea what to do!
Keepers – McCullough, Kaufusi, Papalii, Gallen, Taumalolo, SBurgess, Harris, Johnson, Gutherson, Rapana, Crichton, Nofoaluma, Munster
?? – De Belin, J Graham, D Edwards, C Walker, Marsters,
Trade outs – Brailey, Matagi, Lamb (though he provides cover in 18 & 19), Hayne, Radradra, Fuiamono, Watene-Zelezniak

Given De Belin has a week off to ponder his error, I'm tempted to bring in Taupau for JDB and Mansour or D Walker for WZ. (Walker would enable a loop with Gutherson and cover for round 19.) Thoughts?

    Coach_Cowboy · 22/06/2017 at 18:36

    Hey Westy!
    Beast team mate.
    Are you still looking at doing the same trades with MWZ a possible starter since Teddy could be out? De Belin > Taupau seems OK, I'm a little worried about Taupau's output since Manly now have 4 forwards on the bench (Hastings out) although he should still score very well. JDB OUT is debatable although many of us agree his output seems to be dying off. D.Walker should be a good trade-in with his upcoming draw.
    I'm not sure I'd consider McCullough and Kaufusi keepers although they're definitely capable of scoring well. Kaufusi without attacking stats is a little daunting and McCullough seems to be behind McInnes and Smith with his base output.
    Love the rank. Looks like you could be inside the top 1,000 come round 20.
    J Graham, D Edwards, C Walker, Marsters are all good holds for the time being.

      Westy · 22/06/2017 at 22:51

      Hey Coach, I'd given Radradra the chop instead of MWZ after all that. Semi has a huge ceiling but …
      It puts an extra 100k in the kitty to get some barnstormers into the team like C Smith post byes.
      McCullough and Kaufusi have done really well. They're probably my last changes.
      Btw 240th – you are smashing it.

        Coach_Cowboy · 25/06/2017 at 09:33

        Nice trades Westy. I can't believe Kaufusi is STILL continuing his run of good scores. It'll be hard to let him go but we can't risk thr chance of a random 40ish game om the run home. He'll give us plenty of money to play with too.

          Westy · 27/06/2017 at 20:07

          Hey Coach,
          Don't know how, but 1216 for the round (top 600), and up into the top 1000 from outside 2000.

            Coach_Cowboy · 27/06/2017 at 20:18

            On ya Westy!! That's bloody gold mate

Casper · 22/06/2017 at 18:45

Hey Cowboy! How is your rank coming along?? I reckon a sneaky little POD this week could be Mitchell Barnet! Played 80 mins last start (1st time all year) against manly and pulled out a 70 with 53 tackles! Back on a dry track he is an offloading machine and is currently rock bottom price. Playing dragons I reckon he is in for a big one and plays round 18 bye!! Good Value as is the $4.75 for the knights to spring an upset and keep the tigs on the bottom of the ladder!!!

    Coach_Cowboy · 22/06/2017 at 19:45

    Hey Casper!
    Ranked 240th at the moment. How are you travelling?
    I can see the attraction in Barnett but I'll need to see a bit more than one game of greatness. He's definitely a low to mid-risk option with his cheap price, proven scoring potential and good coverage. If he can pump out another 65/70+ this week then I'd consider him for 18 onwards. He would have to be a back-up for the run home; I'd be too paranoid. I'm liking other options in the forwards.

      Casper · 25/06/2017 at 18:35

      Hey cowboy, struggling mate, in the top 2000, was coming 194th till made the ill fated trade of walker to leilua!

        Coach_Cowboy · 25/06/2017 at 21:08

        Still solid mate.
        I should climb a little further this week. I don't have Vaughan and I threw the big C on Widdop. 1149 at this stage.

geoff · 22/06/2017 at 22:27

Love your work as per cowboy. Been looking at getting in Widdop since the start of the bye rounds and last minute picked tofu over him last round once I heard he was playing in the 2nd row+had a feeling Widdop would do average against origin unaffected eels. Should I steer clear now? My two trade ins were Widdop and Teddy so adjustments are needed. TBH I don't see many halves keepers and not sold on JT due to his injury cloud so i honesty think I might not run with him at all this season. Should I look at a Cleary instead or still role with gareth?

    Coach_Cowboy · 23/06/2017 at 18:06

    Sorry Geoff I saw this a little late. I wouldn't be ruling out Widdop considering his run home draw. Yeah the halves are a little woeful aren't they, especially with JT out. Cleary and/or Widdop should be solid mate.

      geoff · 25/06/2017 at 21:47

      Loving that Widdop trade cowboy, big regrets on the last minute switch from Widdop to lafai as captain but 1121 hoping to move up from my ranking of 1627. What could have been if I stuck with my guns on Widdop though. But considering MWZ, Elliot, McInnes and tofu were horrible it turned out ok.

        Coach_Cowboy · 27/06/2017 at 20:20

        Widdop FTW! Your round turned out pretty good mate!

Westy · 27/06/2017 at 23:07

So Coach, how did you end up for the weekend?

    Coach_Cowboy · 28/06/2017 at 07:14

    Jumped up to 144th with a 1130 odd mate

geoff · 28/06/2017 at 02:23

Cowboy, may I ask when you use all up of your trades how many guns you are looking to have? First year player so not sure how many I should have locked and loaded by the end of it.

    Coach_Cowboy · 28/06/2017 at 07:15

    I'll be looking at 19/20 guns with 2 PODS and 3 nuffs mate.

Comments are closed.