We can now breathe easy knowing three teams are done with their byes.
The Sea Eagles, Knights and Panthers are the first teams to complete their bye rounds. We need to start thinking about which players from these teams we want for our run home. The obvious choices to consider are Taupau, Merrin, Mansour, Moylan and Dylan Walker as none of these players will miss round 18 through Origin duties.
I had a reasonable week with a score of 1167 and jumped 50 spots to 240th overall. My plan this week is to grab two round 18 players; one Nuffie and one Keeper. It’s a little scary when the number of trades remaining reaches single digits but there shouldn’t be a problem if we have some good quality back-up.
Let’s get into the trade candidates.
Josh Mansour ($422k CTW) is back from long-term injury and already seems like a CTW Keeper. A lot of us will be trading him in; but is he a ‘must-have’ this week?
The Verdict: The Sauce will be the ultimate condiment to our SuperCoach sandwich and can’t be ignored with the Panthers’ coverage and run home. I’ve noticed a high percentage of coaches will be trading him in this week but do we need to focus our round 16 trades around him? Don’t feel that he’s a must have this week; he has a break even of 62 so his price won’t change significantly.
The Panthers are playing the Cowboys in Townsville and he’s projected to score 47 points. His highest score against the boys up north is 67 so there’s no harm in waiting until they play the weaker Bunnies in round 17. He’ll be a great addition to your side but he can wait until next week if need be.
Brandon Smith ($122.6k HOK) should play his third (and possibly final) game in round 18. His Break Even is an impressive -86; but is this a relevant factor?
The Verdict: The short answer is no. Smith is an attractive candidate for his round 18 availability, not his break even. He may have been a more suitable trade-in last round but there’s absolutely nothing wrong with using him as a downgrade option this week. You’ll find that a lot of coaches will be getting Mansour or Moylan and they’ll need the extra cash to trade them in. This is why Brailey to Smith will be a popular trade for round 16.
This is a ‘killing two birds with one stone’ scenario. Not only will you have an extra player for round 18 but you’ll also have one of your Nuffies sorted if you’re looking at running with one hooker for the run home. Don’t rule out an upgrade at a later time, though. If Cameron Smith is given a one game rest, Brandon should make enough coin to become a viable upgrade option. He’s a BUY!
Johnathan Thurston ($446.2k HFB) will be one of the halves you’ll want in your run home side. His stats speak for themselves and there’s no question that most competitive coaches will have him in their sides. Should we be considering him for round 16?
The Verdict: Let me start by saying that I’m the biggest sceptic when it comes to trading in a player that isn’t at 100% fitness. Clearly his round 14 performance should rid me of any worries but the additional news of a knee concern along with his Origin duties have just added fuel to the fire.
The Cowboys’ next three rounds are against the Panthers (H), Raiders (A) followed by a bye week. I’m not too concerned with his scoring potential over this period. It wouldn’t bother me to pay an additional 20k or so when the Cowboys play the Bunnies in round 19. At least I’ll know the state of his fitness and I can trade him in without too many concerns. Don’t rush trading him in but there’s never a bad time to add JT to your side.
Semi Radradra ($295.1k CTW) has been inconsistent at best and it seems more and more unlikely he’ll reach ‘Fully Radradra’ in the coming weeks. Is there any point in holding him?
The Verdict: I can’t remember the last time Semi gave me a…..well, never mind. His Break Even is a whopping 88 and he won’t be playing rounds 16 or 19. There are only two reasons we’d want to hold Semi for the time being; his round 18 availability and the Eels’ favourable run home draw. It seems like such a waste trading a player of Semi’s calibre for under $300k but it’s hard to justify his presence in our team at this stage. He’s a justified SELL but those who stay loyal could be rewarded.
Jayden Brailey ($270.5k HOK) is the perfect sell if your numbers for rounds 16 and 19 are looking good. His Break Even is 20 points above his average and he won’t play the final big bye round. Consider ‘nuffing him out’ to Brandon Smith (or a different nuffie) and be wary that he may lose value if he’s your future Cameron Smith.
Cody Walker ($303.2k FE/FB) is another attractive sell but it’s much harder to simply let him go. He won’t be playing this weekend but will take the field in rounds 18 and 19. His Break Even is 46 so he won’t be losing significant value prior to the final big bye round. The negatives are obvious. He may have rewarded us with a 74 point performance last week but keep in mind he would’ve scored closer to 40 if it wasn’t for the Linebreak/Try. The Bunnies have a horror run home so I’d recommend trading him out after round 19.
Martin Taupau ($474.3k FRF/2RF) has been an absolute beast SC scorer and should be considered as one of your run home forwards. He’s been averaging an epic 71.8 PPG and is likely to jump in value with a Break Even on 50. Manly have had their two bye rounds so we have the added comfort of knowing he’ll play each week for the remainder of the season. You can’t really go wrong with the likes of KAPOW!
Gareth Widdop ($396.5k FE/HFB) is making another appearance in my article and for very good reason. Honestly; how frustrating is this bloke? He has a Break Even of 131 yet he’s playing against the Knights and Titans in his next two matches. There’s absolutely no point trading him out when he’s playing two struggling sides so we may as well stay firm for the time being. I think we should assess his suitability after round 17.
Top 5 Break Evens
(Must have played 2 games and named this week)
Kurt Capewell ($262.5k 2RF/CTW): -80 (Bench)
Connor Watson ($199.2k FE/FB): -46 (Bench)
Dylan Edwards ($247.9k CTW/FB): -21
Esan Marsters ($172.5k 2RF): -12
Lachlan Fitzgibbon ($199.5k 2RF): -9
Bottom 5 Break Evens
(Must have played 2 games and named this week)
Gareth Widdop ($396.5k HB/FE): 131
Jake Trbojevic ($508.5k FRF/2RF): 127
Daniel Tupou ($344.7k CTW): 126
Tom Trbojevic ($489.9k CTW/FB): 126
Tim Lafai ($480.3k CTW): 124
Team List Tuesday
State of Origin players return
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad named to start in place of Solomone Kata
Esan Marsters named at centre
Matthew Eisenhuth retains his bench spot
Pat Politoni named on the bench
Marshall/Nikorima named as the Broncos halves (Hunt named on the bench)
Euan Aitken named on the extended bench
Kurt Capewell named on the bench
Gareth Widdop to crack the 80 point barrier
Shaun Johnson to crack the 90 point barrier
Tommy Turbo to drop at least $30k after this weekend