CowboyRound15

‘Nuffies’ are a crucial part of your run home side.

These are the players that are priced at bottom dollar and are highly unlikely to take the field this season. Not only do they allow you to free up as much cash as possible, but they also help you to avoid any AE nightmares (low scoring players that prevent you from using the controversial loophole effectively).

Nuffies are fairly easy to identify. They’re the players that haven’t appeared in the teams’ 21 man squads this season and won’t be first called upon if an injury occurs. You can also take a look at the casualty ward to see which players are ruled out for the remainder of the season.

Round 15 is a good time to start trading in these players. Many of us have fewer than 16 trades remaining so we’ll need to think about which keepers and nuffies are suitable for our teams. Don’t be tempted to offload your big bye round players for nuffies though, even if they’re considered a mid or low-range scorer. They could cost you a head to head win or maintaining your overall rank.

The Storm, Eels and Rabbitohs are the three teams playing rounds 15 and 18 so make sure you have any Keepers from these three teams. The Tigers, Dragons, Cowboys, Titans and Sharks also have fairly good coverage for the remainder of the Origin period. They may not play round 18 but they’ll be available for rounds 16 and 19.

I scored a woeful 1052 last week (thanks Captain Taumalolo). I’ve now dropped to 290th overall and I’ll need to use my final 12 trades effectively. Twelve trades seem a bit low at this stage but I use this tactic every season to keep all my NPR slots productive throughout the opening stages of the season. I normally run out of trades by round 21 but I always have a few back-ups at the ready in case injuries strike.

The Controversial

  • Jarrod Croker ($368.7k CTW) has a three round average of 45 PPG and isn’t available for either of the final big bye rounds. Should Croker owners persist for the remainder of the season?

The Verdict: I’m a Croker owner myself and I’m seriously considering him as a trade option this week. I absolutely hate his upcoming draw (BYE, Broncos, Cowboys, BYE, Dragons, Storm) and we need to remember that all these teams should be at full strength. Coaches that don’t own Croker could consider him for the run home but owners are faced with a much tougher decision. Should we risk a run of potentially low scores? I’m not keen. He’s a SELL!

  • Cameron Munster ($396.2k FB/CTW) has now dropped below $400k but still comes with a high break even of 77. Is it worth trading him in considering his three round average is only 48.3 PPG?

The Verdict:  It’s a little concerning that Munster has scored a 37 and 31 point game in the last three weeks. It’s also worrying that the Storm will be up against the Roosters, Broncos and Raiders in their next five matches and their run home draw is far from favourable. His appeal is his high scoring potential along with his bye coverage but I don’t think these factors are enough to justify the high number of coaches trading him in this week.

There’s a high possibility he’ll score well against the under-strength Cowboys this weekend but I fear his average for the remainder of the season could be lower than some are expecting. Don’t rule him out but he’s far from a ‘must have’.

  • Tuimoala Lolohea ($254.6k CTW/FB) seems to be one of the popular trade options this week. Is he a viable option or are we simply wasting a trade?

The Verdict: Lolohea has a number of appealing factors and we can’t rule him out as a trade option completely. His obvious appeal is his low break even of five and his 57 PPG average since moving to the Tigers. He also comes with a fairly cheap price tag so we can consider him a low-risk option. Let’s not forget he’ll be available for rounds 15, 16 and 19 so there’s no shortage of positives when looking at the Tigers’ five-eighth.

The downsides are minimal but they could have huge consequences. He’s more than capable of scoring poorly so he could become an AE nightmare if you decide to hold him for the run home. I don’t think he’s worth two trades if you’re planning to offload him after round 19; he isn’t a player you’d bring in for just five rounds. Consider him if you’re blessed with plenty of trades or you think he’ll maintain his 57 point average.

In Short

Anthony Milford ($480.8k FE) is out for up to six week but we’ll need to tread carefully. He’ll be a valuable player for our teams upon his return and he’ll more than likely score well for the remainder of the season. We simply have two options; hold and hope or get rid of him immediately. I’d hold if you can work around him but that’s a lot of coin that could be put to better use.

Nathan Brown ($365.3k FRF/2RF) is a solid base performer that now comes with a cheap price tag due to his recent 21 minute stint in round 11. He’s very hard to ignore and will provide a nice boost to your scores in rounds 15 and 18. Just be wary that he won’t play rounds 16 or 19 and giving him Keeper status is highly debatable.

Gareth Widdop ($440.5k FE/HFB) was a popular trade option last week but his 21 point effort against the Doggies was a complete shock. There’s no point offloading him if you’re an owner and he should still be considered if you’re looking at a Milford replacement. Keep in mind that the Dragons have a very favourable draw and Widdop will add to your numbers for rounds 15, 16 and 19.

Jarrod Wallace ($338.4k FRF/2RF) has been one of the better base performers but he won’t be available for rounds 15 or 18. My advice is simple. He shouldn’t be considered if you don’t own him already but owners don’t need to make a conclusive call just yet. Just remember that he’ll add to your numbers for rounds 16 and 19 and you can make a call once the bye period is over.

Top 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and named this week)

Dale Copley ($202.2k CTW): -27

Esan Marsters ($122.6k 2RF): -21

Luke Lewis ($271.6k 2RF): -14

Malakai Watene Zelezniak ($157.2k CTW): -8

Gerard Beale ($200.5k CTW): -5

Bottom 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and named this week)

Tim Lafai ($524.8k CTW): 151

Corey Norman ($352.2k FE/HFB): 117

Gareth Widdop ($440.5k FE/HFB): 107

Taane Milne ($241.6k CTW): 101

Cody Walker ($318.1k FE/FB): 99

Team List Tuesday

State of Origin players won’t play

Tyrell Fuimaono is named in the second row

Tohu Harris is named at centre

Ryley Jacks will play in the halves

Kenneath Bromwich will start in the second row

Brandon Smith will come from the bench

Kurt Capewell is named in the centres

Malakai Watene Zelezniak is named on the wing

Predictions

Tuimoala Lolohea to average 50+ through the remainder of the season

Jordan Rapana to average under 60 PPG in his next 4 matches

Ryan James to crack 80 points this weekend

That’s it for this week,  feel free to leave your comments below, or

Twitter : @CKings_Cowboy

17 Comments

geoff · 14/06/2017 at 16:09

Love your work as per cowboy. Shocker of a round for me also. Just wondering if you think a curtis scott is a good nuff who could play both rd 15 and 18 if blair stays out?
Thinking of actually keeping wallace and trading croker in the hope that wallace backs up from origin II.
Team is as follows with 151k ITB and after doing Holmes–>Munster, Yates–>Brown.
McInnes (Brailey)
Surgess, James (Graham, Wallace)
Gal, LoLo, Manners (JDB, N Brown, Elliot)
SJ (Frawley)
D Walker (C walker)
Lafai, Chricton, Croker, Semi (Dedwards, MWZ, Fui)
Munster (RTS)
Any trade advice? Not sold on tofu playing in the centres and don't love munster but think he could be the focal point of offense with the big names out + kicking goals.
Cheers.

    geoff · 14/06/2017 at 16:11

    would like to know your thoughts on picking up vaughan too, or should i downgrade croker and leave some $$ in the kitty for the likes of potentially getting a moylan, tapau etc in the future. (14 trades left)

    Coach_Cowboy · 14/06/2017 at 19:06

    Thanks Geoff! It was a bit of a downer wasn't it. Scott seems to be pretty good doesn't he. We'll get points for the bye rounds and a free nuff – a '2 birds' scenario.
    Mate it's tough giving you trade advice when you have such a good team. It looks like you're all over it mate.
    Munster is actually really hard to turn down isn't he. Maybe he'll perform better than I'm predicting but it'll be hard to watch other teams benefit from his big score this weekend (presumably). If you don't have Tofu he can definitely wait, although we can't rule out the possibility of him scoring well while the Cows are so under-strength.
    I'm not 100% sold on Vaughan for the run home. I prefer your latter option of getting Tapau as a POD for the run home. I hope that helps mate. MY decision on Croker is based soley on previous rounds and upcoming draw. I kinda wish I didn't own him so I could justify getting him for the run home.

      geoff · 14/06/2017 at 20:16

      Yeah great advice, might just pocket $$ and do croker to Scott. Also tempted to go Frawley to Widdop but forking out 4 trades leaves me with just 12 left. Dragons not looking great either which is timely with my lafai purchase so might be wise to avoid having two dragons backs although that fixture list is hard to ignore

        Coach_Cowboy · 14/06/2017 at 21:03

        I hear ya mate. I brought Lafai in and he's been horrible. I'd avoid 2 Dragons' backs since their last effort but fingers crossed it was just a one-off. It was a strange one! I can almost guarantee if you ignore Widdop he'll go huge…that's just typical SC right there! Frawley > Widdop is massive. It could be a goer if you're not too disadvantaged from the lost cap.

          geoff · 14/06/2017 at 22:17

          I think I might free up money to target Tapau, Moylan and Teddy before rd 17 and settle with that. Don't love Moylan's fixtures come supercoach finals but lovely run before that and looks v sharp in the halves.

            geoff · 14/06/2017 at 22:28

            scratch that moylan doesnt play half back

    killer · 14/06/2017 at 22:36

    Croker to Widdop ,using DPP, Wallace to a storm nuffie freeing up plenty for next week trades Turbo/Sauce and Tapau for Graham & Semi

      geoff · 14/06/2017 at 22:48

      yeah think im pulling the trigger on widdop this week, and the following weeks will be getting B smith, Teddy and Taupau, leaving 9 trades left after the byes (if i end up rolling with 13 in rd 18). Might look to get in the sauce too at some stage.

killer · 14/06/2017 at 22:30

Love it Cowboy ,Spot on mate….
Do you think RTS is coming good making him a possible keeper/ POD as alot have sold or selling and who will average more Sauce or Turbo ..
Also are you stacking 3 Fwd reserves and one Half/Fback to fill your 17 ,or a different structure ..?

    Coach_Cowboy · 15/06/2017 at 16:33

    Hey Killer! Thanks mate. RTS has definitely stepped his game up and I don't mind his run home at all. The obvious downfall is his bye coverage but I guess it's only 2 weeks we'll have to put him to the side.
    At this stage I'll have 2, maybe 3 forward reserves but I've planned my team so I have back-up in the CTWs. This way I can rotate them when they have easy games. What are you running with mate?

geoff · 15/06/2017 at 18:43

What are your thoughts on gun halves for the run home cowboy? Any you have locked in? I'm thinking of throwing in Arey until rd 19 and then shifting him to a keeper- spose Arey to Thurston in rd 19 could be solid but is it worth the two trades to get there?

    geoff · 15/06/2017 at 19:14

    (more important question here is, is trading in Arey for 3-4 weeks a waste of 2 trades)

      Coach_Cowboy · 16/06/2017 at 07:14

      How manu trades do you have left Geoff? I'm not keen on getting in ARey for a short period; it seems like a waste of 2 trsdes but he could score well I guess. I like SJ for his run home and JT would be the half of choice for most. Widdop is the one that makes me nervous. Nice draw but as we saw last weekend he can be a bit iffy. You could always go 3 halves and 1 nuff. Rotate the 3rd half in when they have an easy game? I've gone SJ/Widdop/JT

        geoff · 16/06/2017 at 09:33

        If I make 4 trades this round I'll have 12 left cowboy. I like Widdop just not sure I want to double up on dragons after getting lafai and I don't like widdops fixtures come finals time. Very torn though. Thought Reynolds might be a better option than someone like lolo2 but I should probably look at trading in only keepers and nuffies. I think Reynolds could go very well against Titans this round and understrengthed roosters in rd 18

Westy · 18/06/2017 at 17:03

The Admirable Crichton – boom!
Surely Gutherson has to be considered the real deal. 80 points to half time.

So how on earth have I scored my highest round for the year in round 15, when Gutherson, Matagi, Radradra and De Belin still have a half to play (and Surgess was on the field)?

    Westy · 19/06/2017 at 08:27

    1272 for the round. Stoked with that! Could have been 1340+ if I'd realised Sam Burgess was out.

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