The JR Academy – Week 2

Filed in Daily Fantasy Sports, DFS, Draftstars by on 08/06/2017 • views: 3549

JR-Academy-Web-Post-Image

 

The Academy – Week 2

1.     The Academy Community Ladder & Teams after Week 1 (FRE v COL)

This will be updated weekly, only showing the cumulative point score of the Top 20 place holders. All will be tracked so long term performance can be monitored. Those who prove successful in their Draftstars gamesmanship are encouraged to contribute their strategic wisdoms within this post – don’t be shy, The Academy needs your input!

WEEK-1---Ladder-7-and-teams

ENTER THIS WEEK’S JOCK REYNOLDS DRAFTSTARS ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

Congratulations to team Beno8472!

It is interesting to note that while his team was dominant, winning by 19 points, he still fell short of the optimal team score by a significant 82 points.

As can be seen from both Beno8472’s and the Optimal Team lineups, the proven SuperCoach strategy of the Gun ‘N Rookie approach clearly proved a most successful technique.

2.     Interrogation of the Player Score Projection Tool – “DOM”

Using www.fantasyinsider.com.au as a comparison, I am pleased to report that DOM has performed very well in its first week.

WEEK-1---Dom-v-FI-wrap-up

“ABS Error” refers to the value of the predictive error regardless of its distance above(positive) or below(negative) the actual score.

“Sum of Real Error” is a statistic that adds the positive and negative error giving an indication whether predictions were in general higher or lower than actual values.

DOM Adjustments – Given the strong negative Real Error value that was returned, the only change I will be making to DOM prior to Week 2 is a slight increase to the anchor statistic weighting – Last Three Game Scoring History. This will aim to increase projections by 0.5 points, hopefully bringing the Week 2 Real Error closer to zero.

Beginner’s Luck? It would be foolish to think that DOM will continue to outperform Fantasy Insider’s forecasting tool in the long run. While we will chalk down a victory in Week 1 I do expect to be beaten.

Fantasy Insider’s modelling draws on many additional game factors and produces a far greater number of outputs for the Fantasy player to consider. This is well worth a look and free trials are on offer here;

www.fantasyinsider.com.au

Fantasy Insider’s Lineup Cruncher tool is also extremely useful as it can be used in conjunction with its player projections to help build you ready to use squads to great effect.

3.     Analysis of the Performance of Team Peter_Higgo

It is with some unease that I report a finishing place of 281st landing me within the top 48% of competitors.

The news of Aaron Sandilands late withdrawal proved chaotic and I ended up adjusting my team and taking a risk on Daniel Wells. The Wells injury and final score of just 26 was enough to take me well and truly out of contention. The Wells injury combined with my Mid-Priced spend strategy as apposed to Gun N Rookie approach proved detrimental to performance – an early lesson learnt.

I will continue to track my performance, introducing this in tabular form in Week 3.

4.     Week 2 DOM Player Projection for Monday’s Free Academy Game – COL v ESS

For numeric input detail relating to DOM(Draftstars Optimisation Machine), please visit The Week 1 JR Academy post.

PlayerPOSLong Run Av. (SD)2017 Av. (SD)Last 3 Av. (SD)Av. V Opp.ForecastCeilingPrice$/Pt.
S PendleburyMid109.11 (19.38)112.09 (23.89)127 (16.09)99.6113.96145.01$16,650146.09
S SidebottomMid104.8 (21.89)106 (24.58)125 (15.1)86.25108.01138.53$15,900147.2
A TreloarMid107.47 (19.27)113.9 (21.75)117.33 (8.5)106112.56145.57$15,850140.8
N JonesMid96.5 (24.18)106.2 (21.66)108 (21.21)110.4106.14136.71$15,300144.14
B GrundyRuc89.86 (25.43)106.36 (16.14)109.67 (8.33)88.2100.92124.19$14,450143.18
J VineyMid88.58 (24.04)97.4 (23.53)96 (2.83)87.693.75107.16$14,350153.05
C OliverMid84.91 (24.6)105.7 (15.78)95.5 (2.12)6190.04118.37$13,900154.37
J LewisMid106.26 (22.94)93.57 (19.02)92 (18.38)121.28101.68138.9$13,800135.71
D TysonMid89.51 (23.4)94.33 (26.65)90 (9.9)9793.1123.06$13,600146.07
J SmithFwd79.07 (26.89)83.64 (31.5)115.33 (14.29)5887.6141.42$13,250151.24
C PedersenRuc/Fwd69.7 (22.9)101.2 (10.62)108.5 (16.26)83.3394.01117.2$13,200140.4
L GreenwoodMid86.89 (25.44)74.67 (19.49)92 (17.35)10488.67124.62$13,150148.28
J CrispMid86.75 (18.14)84.18 (20.05)87.67 (10.97)80.7585.55108.33$12,150142.01
J HoweDef75.75 (24.01)88.45 (22.74)91.33 (30.37)68.883.34121.49$11,800141.57
J ElliottFwd80.38 (22.68)78.5 (23.13)92.33 (11.24)64.3380.69155.75$11,800146.23
B VinceMid 91.04 (23.95)75.67 (19.86)61.5 (9.19)119.7583.8109.14$11,600138.41
J HoganFwd75.78 (25.86)68.2 (44.9)79.7572.49113.9$11,450157.94
B MaynardDef66.63 (21.85)71.09 (19.35)91 (5.57)7878.05109.23$11,350145.41
J GarlettFwd58.49 (25.15)74.3 (29.61)86.5 (72.83)66.573.73101.93$11,250152.56
B StretchDef/Mid62.94 (20.08)77 (19.65)4870.46100.19$11,050156.8
C PetraccaMid/Fwd71.07 (17.51)76.5 (19.05)69 (4.24)7172.5699.77$11,000151.58
J De GoeyMid/Fwd70 (20.47)73.4 (21.4)82.33 (24.83)70.575.32119.77$10,850144.05
J WattsMid/Fwd74.12 (20.83)79.2 (22.01)71.5 (38.89)86.877.89119.73$10,800138.64
J HarmesFwd63.84 (21.94)77.6 (16.26)68 (0)61.569.24130$10,750155.23
D KentFwd60.79 (27.38)63.8 (39.79)60 (0)10570.79127.97$10,550149.01
J MelkshamDef/Mid64.78 (22.73)71.71 (24.49)117 (0)68.883.83104.49$10,450124.65
B ReidDef/Fwd66.79 (22.75)73.43 (23.73)67.570.6107.08$10,400147.29
A Neal-BullenMid/Fwd57.64 (31.34)86.29 (35.37)76 (0)7475.51132.22$10,350137.06
C MayneFwd74.09 (22.02)63 (9.54)68.7869.0490.6$10,300149.17
C SalemDef59.13 (30.07)84.89 (24.42)48 (0)4879.43123.91$9,950125.26
D MooreFwd53.65 (21.33)60.18 (24.9)86 (13.45)57.566.58106.36$9,700145.68
A FasoloFwd68.76 (23.98)66.9 (24.83)58.5 (33.23)65.564.97109.66$9,700149.29
L DunnDef66.15 (17.79)61.83 (11.48)72 (3.61)74.2568.72100.24$9,550138.95
A BrayshawMid/Fwd64.33 (22.9)64 (26.87)67.3364.66104.43$9,500146.9
M HannanFwd60.67 (21.67)60.67 (21.67)79.5 (3.54)54.6870.39$9,450172.81
J ThomasMid/Fwd69.85 (33.18)8870.3490.76$9,400133.62
J WagnerDef66.06 (15.23)58 (3.46)56 (1.41)84.564.81109.3$9,250142.72
L KeeffeDef46.94 (17.98)8747.4458.36$9,150192.85
S FrostRuc/Fwd51.17 (16.84)66.57 (11.97)56.5 (20.51)82.564.1593.73$8,950139.5
B SinclairDef55.79 (22.55)4256.2991.39$8,700154.55
C GarlandDef58.95 (19.15)70.6659.4587.74$8,600144.65
M ScharenbergDef57 (18.77)60 (9.9)60 (9.9)3955.782.31$8,600154.39
J RamsayDef59.56 (15.92)59.71 (14.75)36 (0)41.1279.58$8,550207.89
J BlairFwd67.9 (18.54)51.83 (9.91)46.5 (6.36)74.7558.5271.73$8,500145.22
J HuntFwd62 (21.22)74.2 (26.1)53 (9.9)43.564.7296.38$8,450130.56
J WhiteFwd65 (21.49)61.25 (30.36)54.6663.6275.54$8,400132.02
N JettaDef56.35 (18.38)60.9 (15.18)55.5 (6.36)60.258.7293.43$8,350142.17
T BroomheadMid/Fwd57.03 (22.58)61.25 (19.39)69.5 (6.36)41.0059.33104.40$8,000134.83
O McDonaldDef58.2 (15.9)57.75 (12.99)47 (16.97)5855.1688.04$7,950144.11
H SchadeDef46.43 (14.41)53.25 (12.07)52 (0)41.3657.83$7,850189.79
J AishDef/Mid64.68 (24.73)46.33 (11.68)36 (0)7653.3379.73$7,700144.36
M CoxRuc/Fwd50.47 (13.74)45.25 (7.18)4848.35113.78$7,100146.82
C BrownMid/Fwd50$6,700134
J Kennedy-HarrisFwd42.04 (19.84)46.33 (21.83)1444.6874.91$6,500145.45
B CrockerMid43 (0)43 (0)43 (0)3642.1$6,400152.01
5.     Comparison of COL v MEL  predictive scores as delivered by DOM against an established forecasting model
Using forecasts as supplied by www.fantasyinsider.com.au, DOM performance data will be routinely checked against Fantasy Insider’s forecasting model and adjusted post-round as required.
 PlayerDOM's ForecastF.I's ForecastDifference
SUM TOTALS3911.223812.7898.14
S Pendlebury113.96104.789.17
A Treloar112.56105.776.78
S Sidebottom108.0199.488.52
N Jones106.14103.792.34
J Lewis101.6892.559.12
B Grundy100.92112.25-11.33
C Pedersen94.0177.0017.00
J Viney93.7598.78-5.03
D Tyson93.193.42-0.32
C Oliver90.0492.88-2.84
L Greenwood88.6773.3015.36
J Smith87.682.105.50
J Crisp85.5580.435.11
J Melksham83.8373.5810.24
B Vince83.879.624.17
J Howe83.3479.473.86
J Elliott80.6979.611.07
C Salem79.4376.752.67
B Maynard78.0565.0812.96
J Watts77.8976.841.04
A Neal-Bullen75.5169.945.56
J De Goey75.3269.785.53
J Garlett73.7367.656.07
C Petracca72.5670.781.77
J Hogan72.4976.10-3.61
D Kent70.7970.550.23
B Reid70.669.840.75
B Stretch70.4670.430.02
J Harmes69.2469.54-0.30
C Mayne69.0471.06-2.02
L Dunn68.7258.0510.66
D Moore66.5860.006.57
A Fasolo64.9765.28-0.31
J Wagner64.8163.781.02
J Hunt64.7268.61-3.89
A Brayshaw64.6667.43-2.77
S Frost64.1553.4010.74
J White63.6264.78-1.16
C Garland59.4555.044.40
T Broomhead59.3357.791.54
N Jetta58.7260.31-1.59
J Blair58.5258.72-0.20
B Sinclair56.2958.26-1.97
M Scharenberg55.756.68-0.98
O McDonald55.1659.27-4.11
M Hannan54.6860.57-5.89
J Aish53.3361.29-7.96
C Brown5044.795.20
M Cox48.3551.26-2.91
L Keeffe47.4443.443.99
J Kennedy-Harris44.6847.37-2.69
B Crocker42.140.531.56
H Schade41.3648.43-7.07
J Ramsay41.1254.55-13.43
6.     Apply DOM forecasts and key selection strategies to finalise a weekly contest lineup for Monday’s FREE Academy Game – COL v MEL.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Given that each week this post will be uploaded PRIOR to final team selections, potential updates will be re-posted following the release of squads. 

Having learnt a clear selection strategy in Week 1, I will be opting for a Gun N Rookie selection strategy that assumes young Callum Brown is indeed selected. I have used value and forecasted point output as a guide just as I have used over the years in my Supercoach selection strategies – there is definitely transferrable knowledge here!

Comparing this to Fantasy Insiders automated “crunched” Lineup is interesting. While again, my lineup is predicted to score slightly less than the Fantasy Insider Lineup, elements of a “human factor” entered into my selection strategy – hence the selection of Lyndon Dunn … a rather large game given the recent history and tensions that have been brewing across the week.

DOM-v-FI-lineups-WEEK2

 

I will leave the JR Academy Community to discuss the pros and cons of the above lineup – consider it, challenge it, and by all means BEAT IT IN THIS MONDAY’S ACADEMY CONTEST! 

ENTER THIS WEEK’S CONTEST HERE

 

This is shaping up to be a wonderful game of football – both in real and fantasy terms.

I wish you well for Week 2 and look forward to continuing to share in my explorations in the weeks to come.

Kind regards,

Peter J Higginbotham

 

 Fantasy Insider have a two week free trial on the go at the minute, they also have a SuperCoach ‘who should I pick’ tool which may arouse you.. jump on over and give our great supporters a try!

DFS_post_cruncher-(1)

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Comments (27)

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  1. discojim says:

    Thanks Higgo. Enjoyed last week's game and just missed out on your top 20. Agree about the Gun and Rookie approach. If Brown gets selected he is a lock. Big call on Dunn!

  2. Boydo says:

    Loving the stats table and points per dollar break down. Peterson over Gundy in ruck for mine if Spencer doesn't get named.

    • Patch says:

      Spencer confirmed coming back via the VFL, and I'm thinking I might run with you, Boydo. The numbers can only do so much, and Pederson's work rate around the ground is impressing the pants off me, and he's playing as another midfielder. The only hesistation I have is that Grundy also racks up more of the ball than usual to suppliment hitouts, while Pederson doesn't tend to get hitouts at all

      • SC_Kev7 says:

        Grundy had me tearing my hair out at half time. Scored 80 odd in the second half which saved things. As Jock highlighted yesterday, Darcy Moore looks a good pick

        • Patch says:

          I've locked Moore away – am trying a new strategy which I'll mention tomorrow in the Panic Room

  3. LEKD0G says:

    Sandilands hurt me too, didn't have time to analyse and adjust enough, struggled as a result. Still came 148th but should've been higher.

    This week i think WHE is an absolute must, especially with Pies forward outs.

  4. Wayno says:

    Higgo you make my head explobe every i read yr stuff

  5. hedski says:

    180th last week, looking to improve.
    First draft for this week.
    Brown.
    Hunt.
    Treloar.
    Oliver.
    Broomhead.
    Tyson.
    Howe.
    Jetta.
    Pederson.

    Broomhead needs a nickname.

  6. BarronVonCrow says:

    The DOM looks to have performed very well, Higgo! That's a good start for sure and definitely shows you've got that bad boy humming and heading in the right direction by having less misses than the FI.

    I came 91st last week, my Cam McCarthy and Luke Ryan picks did me in unfortunately. Your DOM lineup for this week looks solid, Treloar, Oliver, Lewis should all score well.

    Broomhead, based on his VFL stats, can find the pill plenty of times, but may be penalized slightly because he tends to handball more than he kicks (AFL averages 6 kicks and 10 handballs, VFL 6 kicks and 17 handballs). So if he hits his average he might only be scoring 4-6 points less than he maybe could if he kicked it more, but if he has a big game, it doesn't look as if he kicks anymore than usual (eg Rd 6 in the VFL, 37 disposals, but only 11 kicks and 26 handballs). Hopefully he can make up for that a bit by kicking a goal or two. I'll still consider picking him this week.

  7. Patch says:

    Love your stuff Higgo, you've my brain churning! Interesting neither lineups are going with Taylor Adams, who would be considered my first picked at this stage (averaging 118!)

    Here's hoping the potatoes do better this week!

  8. jockreynolds says:

    One day Peter J. Higginbotham – kids will walk into the museum in the smoke. Phar Lap will be out the back getting dusty as buggery – and in his place will be a cabinet which has your gigantic brain floating around in muck. They'll come from all parts to look at it son.

    I reckon my first locked in will be Melsham this week – bit of a change of role on the wing in his last game, had been assigned jobs before that. Just checked he pts per $ rate in your table and bloody BANG.. he's value. Anyone else with me? I'll go Guns N Rookies as well.. time to nail this caper

    • Patch says:

      Most would think I'd hate the thought of Jakey Melksham moving clubs and killing it, but I'm bringing him in and I'll be rooting for him. He has serious talent, and while he had problems applying that talent at the Dons, it's still there. We got a secound rounder for him (which was a bargain as far as I'm concerned) and he's playing the Pies – I hope he rips 'em a new one. Locked in ahead of Hibberd for mine

  9. SC_Kev7 says:

    A bit of luck to be honest. Finished 4th (not third as posted on twitter. Went the early crow and got shafted by scaling)

    I did put a lot of weight behind recent history in my selections. A cheap ruck option is better than a cheap mid (Grif v Grundy). Grif was a good 5-6k cheaper and was beaten by 14 points. Allowing to spend big on the proven guns (Pendles, Treloar – awesome for fantasy, Sidebum)

    • Top4Tiger says:

      Interesting. Recent history is important and I read that Higgo uses it as his anchor statistic. Can Greenwood and Josh Smith go again or were they just one off performances out of the box? Still seem to be offering value.

  10. JB says:

    Does anyone know what happen to fanfooty? It appears to be down for the past week.

  11. Top4Tiger says:

    I have entered my first Draftstars team. Just out of interest, can anyone tell me how many were in this contest last week?

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      Greetings Top4Tiger,
      The Week 1 Academy contest had 572 players.
      Kind regards,
      Peter

  12. poloko48 says:

    Here's my team for this week:

    FWD: Hannan
    FWD: Phillips
    MID: Adams
    MID: Broomhead
    MID: Brown
    MID: Smith
    DEF: Hibberd
    DEF: Scharenberg
    RUC: Pedersen

    Thoughts?

  13. Jedders says:

    Still feel the ruck call if the one that structures our teams. Went Griff last week and with Darcy guaranteed to spend time in the ruck again it maybe worth going Pedo for value. Came 37th last week & won't make the same mistake by not picking Adams. Brown will be a super mid in years to come but how much game time will he get in the guts?

  14. Rick Grimes says:

    Sorry for my ingorance, but once I pick my side, what do I do? Do I need to register?

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