CowboyRound13

Round 13 could’ve been mistaken for another big bye round.

Many of us struggled to crack the thousand point barrier but luckily the average score wasn’t too high.

We need to push the last two rounds out of our heads and move forward towards the meat of the bye period. It’s worth noting that six teams are yet to have a bye week so we should consider moving these players on.  These teams are the Broncos, Bulldogs, Raiders, Eels, Roosters and Warriors. Parramatta players shouldn’t be on your trade radar as much as they’re still available for rounds 15 and 18. Keep in mind that the Eels and Rabbitohs both have a bye week in round 16 so you might struggle to field a good side if you overload on players from these two teams.

Additionally, you’ll want to start thinking about limiting your trades to keepers, cheapies and nuffies. Middies aren’t really on the cards at this stage as most of the players you trade in will likely be in your run home side. Obviously not all coaches will opt with the Keepers/Nuffies tactic for the run home; but middies will likely become NPRs which means you’ll be wasting a lot of unused cash.

I had an extremely lucky week in round 13 and notched up a score of 1172. This brought my rank up to 174th overall but I’ll need to make some smart trades to be able to maintain it through to the end of the bye period. I’ll probably consider boosting my forwards this week as they’re looking a little grim. I’m actually a little surprised I’ve gotten through this much of the season without Taumalolo, De Belin, Rapana, Tedesco or Cameron Smith. These are the players I’ll be looking at trading in shortly.

The Controversial

  • Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (FB $315.8k) is at the top of my ‘Most Traded Out In My Team’ list in SuperCoach. He has a season average of 51.1 PPG and was owned by 36.1% of coaches in round 13.

The Verdict:  RTS has just pumped out a five round average of 49.2 PPG which isn’t high enough to be considered a keeper. He won’t play rounds 15 and 18 and his run home isn’t considered favourable. The only positive with Tuivasa-Sheck this week is his break even of 31 and it’s highly unlikely he’ll fall short of this mark against the Titans on Saturday. He’s definitely a trade option but it can wait for next week.

  • Gareth Widdop ($488.7k FE/HFB) is still considered a POD at 4.3% ownership but numerous coaches are looking at trading him in this week. He is an extremely controversial trade option for round 14.

The Verdict: Let’s start with the positives. The Dragons have a very favourable draw through to the end of the season. They won’t play the Storm, Sharks or Cowboys for the remainder of the year. This could prove to be extremely beneficial for Widdop due to his high involvement and having the goal kicking duties.

The negatives are fairly obvious. $489k is a lot to pay for any player, even if they’re producing a five round average of 82.4 PPG. His break even is currently at 118 but we can ignore this factor to a point; his price fluctuation is irrelevant if you’re planning on keeping him until the end. In short, he’s bloody expensive but he’s scoring the points to justify it. He should be a great addition to your team but you’ll have to pay through the teeth for his services.

  • Clint Gutherson ($383.5k CTW/FE) is currently owned by 13.4% of coaches and there’s good reason he moved out of POD territory prior to the bye period.

The Verdict: Gutherson is a very attractive buy this week although we should be aware of a few negatives that come with the trade. He’s no stranger to scoring poorly; he’s produced a 40 and 33 point game within the past five weeks although the former was during a 64 minute stint. Additionally, the Eels have a fairly tough draw approaching with the Cowboys, Dragons and Storm being three of their four next opponents.

On a positive note, Gutherson will boost your numbers for rounds 15 and 18 and his break even is currently 45 points lower than his five round average of 65.4 PPG. His CTW/FE DPP status will surely come in handy at some stage too. He should be on your trade radar but he’s far from a necessity for the remainder of the bye period.

In Short

Jordan Rapana ($478.8k CTW) now has a three round average of 108.3 PPG. Yes, you’ve read that correctly. His break even of -25 and run of epic scores are the reasons why coaches are bringing him in this week. Rapana is a Keeper CTW and it’s unlikely we’ll able to pick him up any cheaper in the near future. If you’re wondering why he’s a popular choice this week when his bye coverage is so poor, keep in mind that head to head players will make up most of the 0.8% that are trading him in.

Esan Marsters ($122.6k 2RF) is the new bottom dollar cheapie on the scene who’s getting a run due to a number of injuries in the Tigers’ forward pack. He’s only played one game but some coaches are using him as an excuse to free up some cash. There’s no harm in trading him in this week. He’ll become a nuffie as a worst case scenario.

Jayden Brailey ($277.8k HOK) has one remaining purpose; contributing to your round 15, 16 and 19 numbers. I’ve noticed quite a few coaches are trading him out this week but I’d be holding off and reassessing in round 16. He’s coming off two 50+ games and now has a break even of 23. Why not squeeze a few more dollars out of him and contribute to your round 15 score? Be wary that James Segeyaro has returned to the Sharks 21 man squad this week.

Top 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and named this week)

Jordan Rapana ($478.8k CTW): -25

Dale Copley ($158.8k CTW): -25

Lachlan Fitzgibbon ($160.4k 2RF): -22

Benji Marshall ($319.9k HFB/CTW): -16 (named in the reserves)

Jo Ofahengaue ($235k FRF/2RF): -11 (named in the reserves)

Bottom 5 Break Evens (Must have played 2 games and named this week)

Daniel Tupou ($344.7k CTW): 125

Cody Walker ($371.3k FE/FB): 123

Gareth Widdop ($488.7k FE/HFB): 118

Johnathan Thurston ($448.9k HFB): 115

Josh Papalii ($485.1k 2RF/FRF): 111

Team List Tuesday

Cameron Smith has been named to return

Anthony Milford has been named to return

Brenko Lee has been dropped to the reserves

Tom Trbojevic has been named in the reserves

James Segeyaro has been named in the reserves

Mitchell Barnett is named at lock

Jarryd Hayne has switched to fullback

Agnatius Paasi is named in the reserves

Corey Norman is named in the reserves

Mitchell Pearce has been named to return

Josh Reynolds has been named to return

Predictions

Gareth Widdop to average 65+ through the remainder of the season

Brenko Lee to return to the Bulldogs’ seventeen before round 18

Anthony Milford to average 60+ through the remainder of the season

That’s it for this week,  feel free to leave your comments below, or

Twitter : @CKings_Cowboy

19 Comments

Scotty · 07/06/2017 at 14:31

Hi Cowboy
I enjoy your column each week but first time poster.
I'm in a very similar position to you – 154th without owning any of taumololo, jdb, rapana etc
I've been eyeing some of those guys off as well but they all have quite high ownership e.g. taumololo over 40%.
I'm looking at lower ownership guys like taupau merrin etc (I got lafai last week) as I figure it'll be hard to move higher up the rankings with common players.
What's your thoughts on this… is it about getting the right balance between points and PODs?
Cheers

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/06/2017 at 17:45

    Hey thanks so much Scotty. Glad you're enjoying the weekly article.
    Nice rank! Taumalolo is appealing for me because of his rounds 15,16 and 19 availability. He also looks like a keeper so it's a 2 birds with 1 stone scenario.
    I wouldn't be too concerned with PODs at this stage mate. Your team as a while is a POD in itself.
    At this stage of the season you'd be looking at fielding a very strong 17 in the non-bye weeks while still remaining competitive for rounds 15, 16, 18 and 19. Ideally you'll want maybe one or two PODs coming out of the bye period but don't be too stressed with focusing your trades around them. Merrin seems to be coming good lately, same with Taupau. I think they're both good pick-ups at this point in the season.
    I hope this helps Scotty.

geoff · 07/06/2017 at 15:34

Great stuff cowboy. Teddy seems hard to ignore at that price. Tossing and turning whether to grab him and sacrificing a bit of bye planning for a gun keeper. What are your thoughts on him? I've got Yates who probably needs to go before he starts bleeding $$ but thats sacrificing a rd 18 player for a non rd 18 player which would leave me with 11 for rd 18 (one of which will be frawley).

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/06/2017 at 17:47

    Cheers Geoff! Yates is a nice trade-out option and Teddy is very hard to ignore. He was such a beast in SOO game 1. $367k is an absolute steal for Teddy and at least he'll give you an extra number for round 19 (and 16 if you need it). This is probably the cheapest he'll be for the remainder of the season I'd say. Go hard mate!

      geoff · 07/06/2017 at 20:32

      What are your thoughts on shifting croker on? Seems criminal that I got rid of milf last week and am thinking of trading out another potential keeper but I need to free up cash for the likes of strengthening bye numbers (JDB, Munster, Harris).
      Team is below, following on from 1 already completed trade Cotric–>Tapau.
      260k ITB
      McInnes (Brailey)
      Surgess, James (Graham, Wallace)
      Gal, LoLo, Tapau (Manners, Elliot, Yates)
      SJ (Frawley)
      Cody Walker (D Walker)
      Lafai, Croker, Semi, Chrichton (Holmes, MWZ, Fui)
      RTS (D edwards)

        geoff · 07/06/2017 at 20:51

        (now thinking I should wait on teddy til rd 16 and go holmes to him, and get JDB this week and wait for Tapau until rd 17ish- slight concern is JDB somehow getting a call up for origin 2 from injury something)

          Coach_Cowboy · 07/06/2017 at 20:56

          JDB concerns me. He's dying off as the season progresses but he could prove me wrong though. What about someone like Tofu?

FEARTHEBEARD · 07/06/2017 at 17:56

Got my team going strong now 2 but stuck on what to do currently on :

Smith
Fifita, SBurgess, Vaughan (R1)
Gallen, James, Taumalolo, Elliott (R2)
Johnson
Milford, DWalker (R3)
Rapana, Crichton, Harris, Leuila,
Tedesco, RTS (R4)

Thinking I might go for Tommy Turbo or Jake Trbo or Mansour FOR ELLIOTT?

Thoughts?

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/06/2017 at 18:09

    After seeing that team I'm definitely fearing the beard mate. That's an insane team. RTS > Tommy Turbo and maybe upgrade BJ if he continues to fail looks to be the next move. How's your NPRs/bench looking?

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/06/2017 at 20:58

    I think Elliott has done his time too

Westy · 07/06/2017 at 20:47

Hey Coach, back in the top 3000 again after a couple of slump weeks.
Hi Coach,
Current team looks like this.
McCulloch, (Brailey)
S Burgess, Kaufusi, (J Graham, Matagi)
Gallen, Taumalolo, Papalii, De Belin, (Crichton – R1, Elliott)
Johnson, (Lamb)
Gutherson, (C Walker – R2)
Rapana, Nofoaluma, Radradra, B Lee, D Edwards, M Watene-Zelezniak, Fuimaono
Tuivasa Sheck,(Hayne)

456K in the bank.
Thinking about Harris for Lee given he's been dropped
Thinking about Munster or Teddy or Moylan for RTS.

    Coach_Cowboy · 07/06/2017 at 20:53

    Hey Westy! Been a while mate. Top 3k is solid; we're only half way through the season.
    Great team. Harris for Lee is gold.
    That last trade is a toughie. RTS OUT is good but choosing which FB to get out of those three will be tough. I can't see Teddy being any cheaper for the rest of the season but he screws with your bug bye rounds. I like Munster out of those three, Should score well and plays 15, 16 and 19. Only negative with Munster is his BE of 88 against the Sharks this week. He can wait for next week?

      Westy · 07/06/2017 at 21:57

      Teddy also potentially gets SOO duties doesn't he? Moylan doesn't have any byes after next week.

        Westy · 07/06/2017 at 21:59

        Could go all out next week and cull Hayne AND RTS for Munster and Moylan! 😉

        Coach_Cowboy · 07/06/2017 at 22:36

        Yeah he won't play 15 or 18.
        Haha not bad but does that mean you'll be ignoring Teddy for the remainer of he season or grab him later? Hope we don't have to fork out too much for him. I won't be getting him this week.

Don't Blush Baby · 08/06/2017 at 19:11

Broncos have dropped Ben Hunt ,going to the Saints in 18, Nikorima to starting 1/2 back , I have him at hooker, might be a keeper, still have Brailey who I will trade up to Smith later on

Rabbits16 · 09/06/2017 at 14:21

how good was smith last night, i reversed my trade of smith – mcinnes with the last 5 mins til lockout. My other trade however… leilua for cheyse blair will prove miserable… got blair in for the byes though

Rabbits16 · 09/06/2017 at 14:26

who eveeryone captaining this week?

    Coach_Cowboy · 12/06/2017 at 22:33

    Smith was epic Rabbits. Nice reverse! Hooefully Blair's ankle is good to go this weekend. I captained Lolo :(. Who did you go with mate?

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